1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and the economy has entered the flat part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Import - In September, the import amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [4]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 5.0% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products decreased by 10.3% year - on - year and 1.9% month - on - month; rare earth decreased by 9.2% year - on - year and increased by 26.8% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 2.8% year - on - year and increased by 10.8% month - on - month; basic metals increased by 16.1% year - on - year and 9.0% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 10.3% year - on - year and 14.2% month - on - month, with automobile products decreasing by 29.8% year - on - year and 7.5% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 14.2% year - on - year and 18.1% month - on - month [4]. - By country or region, in August, the top three in terms of import value were ASEAN, the EU, and Latin America. ASEAN's import value decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 11.4% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 10.3% month - on - month; Latin America's increased by 18.0% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. China Hong Kong, the UK, and India had relatively large year - on - year changes, at +304.2%, +25.5%, and +23.4% respectively [4]. 3.2 Export - In September, the export amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, and the month - on - month increase continued for two consecutive months [5]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 7.2% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products increased by 18.2% year - on - year and decreased by 4.7% month - on - month; rare earth increased by 97.1% year - on - year and 8.3% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 4.0% year - on - year and 6.6% month - on - month; basic metals decreased by 2.0% year - on - year and increased by 5.3% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 12.7% year - on - year and 5.2% month - on - month, with automobile products increasing by 8.7% year - on - year and decreasing by 2.9% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 11.9% year - on - year and 13.2% month - on - month. The export product structure is constantly optimizing and innovating, with labor - intensive products decreasing year - on - year and机电 and high - tech products increasing year - on - year [5]. - By country or region, in September, the top three in terms of export value were ASEAN, the EU, and China Hong Kong. ASEAN's export value increased by 15.6% year - on - year and decreased by 6.1% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 14.2% year - on - year and decreased by 7.1% month - on - month; China Hong Kong's increased by 19.4% year - on - year and 28.0% month - on - month. Affected by tariffs and pre - export rushes, exports to the US decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports to the EU and ASEAN still maintained double - digit year - on - year growth [5]. 3.3 Market - On October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November, causing bond yields to decline rapidly on October 11. As Trump's attitude changed and tariff negotiations cooled down, market risk appetite recovered, and on October 13, the yields of interest - rate bonds oscillated and then rose [6]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In September, the trade surplus increased by 10.6% year - on - year and decreased by 11.6% month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the trade surplus increased by 26.0% year - on - year [3].

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory serves as a solution to enhance investor returns through professional guidance [5] - The article introduces a free course on fund advisory, providing insights and learning materials for better understanding [5][7] Group 2 - The article discusses three classic strategies for stock-bond allocation, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation in different market conditions [10][12] - The first strategy is valuation-based allocation, where funds are shifted to cash or bonds when the stock market is expensive, allowing for opportunistic buying during market dips [13][15] - The second strategy is target risk strategy, which maintains a fixed stock-bond ratio and rebalances when deviations occur, impacting long-term returns and risks [18][19] - The third strategy is target life cycle strategy, which adjusts stock and bond allocations based on age, promoting higher stock exposure in younger years and more stable assets as one ages [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a balanced stock-bond allocation and the strategy of dynamic rebalancing to optimize investment performance during market fluctuations [4][5][6]. Group 1: Stock-Bond Allocation - The simplest form of asset allocation is the stock-bond configuration, which should be based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, such as a 60% stock and 40% bond allocation [5]. - Maintaining a predetermined stock-bond ratio is crucial to ensure participation in market upswings, referred to as "high moments," which are essential for capitalizing on bull markets [6][8]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing involves adjusting the stock-bond ratio back to its original allocation when market fluctuations cause significant deviations [8][9]. - The article suggests that a deviation of 10% in stock asset value should trigger rebalancing, as this aligns with historical annualized returns of broad market indices [27][29]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that since 2019, there have been 20 opportunities for dynamic rebalancing, averaging about three times per year, with 11 instances requiring profit-taking from equities and 9 instances necessitating buying into bonds [29]. - The article emphasizes that the primary benefit of dynamic rebalancing is not maximizing profits but smoothing out volatility and maintaining a consistent equity position to capture significant market gains [31][30]. Group 4: Practical Application - The article advocates for a systematic approach to stock-bond allocation and dynamic rebalancing, which is user-friendly and effective for average investors [32]. - It also highlights the importance of adjusting the stock-bond ratio based on market conditions, such as increasing equity exposure during bear markets and locking in profits during bull markets [31].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the A-share market are seen as a phase of consolidation after a period of continuous growth, which is beneficial for digesting profit-taking pressure and preparing for future medium to long-term market trends [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing a mild recovery, supported by a series of growth-stabilizing policies, which has improved market risk appetite and expanded profit-making effects [1] - The stock and bond markets are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with investment opportunities likely to emerge in multiple areas [1] Group 2: Fund Details - The newly launched Jianxin Fengze Bond Fund has an asset allocation of 80% in bonds and 5%-20% in equities, aiming to flexibly capture multi-asset market opportunities [2] - The fund will utilize a quantitative analysis framework combined with factor models for stock selection and portfolio construction, focusing on value and dividend styles, along with factors like expectations and financial quality [2] Group 3: Management Team - The fund will be co-managed by Xue Ling and Peng Ziyun, leveraging their respective expertise in equity and fixed income management [2] - Xue Ling has 12 years of experience in the securities industry and 9 years as a fund manager, skilled in using quantitative models to identify market opportunities [2] - Peng Ziyun has 11 years of experience in the securities sector and 6 years as a fund manager, adept at adjusting interest rate bond positions and duration based on macroeconomic cycles [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market's upward trend has led to a significant recovery in the performance of actively managed equity funds, with over 90% of funds exceeding their previous year's net value [1][2] - As of September 12, the CSI 300 index has risen by 15.2% year-to-date, with over 80% of actively managed equity funds outperforming the market, achieving an average return of 28.03% [2] - The "Ant Financial Gold Selection" equity fund has an average return of 29.75% year-to-date, surpassing the performance of the benchmark index [2] Group 2 - More than 80% of investors in equity funds on the Ant Financial platform have achieved profitability, with an average return of 12% for their holdings [2] - The probability of positive returns for investors holding the Gold Selection equity fund is 17% higher than for those holding non-Gold Selection funds, with a return rate that is 7.8% higher [2] - The performance of actively managed equity funds is attributed to both the overall market recovery and the ability of fund managers to generate excess returns [2] Group 3 - Three key investment behaviors have been identified that significantly enhance profitability: diversified allocation, reasonable holding periods, and product selection [4] - Investors who effectively manage their stock-bond allocation have a 6% higher probability of profitability compared to those holding a single asset [5] - Historical data shows that a classic stock-bond combination of 20% stock funds and 80% bond funds yielded an 11.85% cumulative return with a maximum drawdown of only 5.04% during market transitions [5] Group 4 - Investors focusing on long-term stable products tend to achieve better returns than those chasing annual "champion funds," with the Gold Selection equity fund yielding 124.41% since 2019 compared to 95.86% for champion funds [6] - The stability of excess returns, consistency in investment style, and stable management scale are crucial factors for investors when selecting products [6] - Healthy and rational investment behaviors are emphasized as essential for smoothing out the volatility associated with high-risk investments, thereby increasing overall profitability [6]

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in government bond futures, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts reaching new lows since March 24, indicating a bearish trend in the bond market [1][2] - The recent inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, showing a 0.4% year-on-year decline in CPI and a 2.9% year-on-year decline in PPI, has contributed to the adjustment in the bond market, as stronger inflation data typically exerts downward pressure on bond prices [1] - The bond market has been experiencing a downturn since late June, with a notable drop in August, primarily driven by rising risk appetite due to the continuous increase in the stock market and heightened inflation expectations stemming from "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to increased volatility, contrasting sharply with the anticipated bull market in 2024, resulting in lower-than-expected yields for bond investors this year [2] - As of September 9, 2025, the cumulative yield of the China Bond Composite Index for the year stands at only 0.45%, putting significant pressure on bond fund managers, particularly those managing pure bond funds [2] - Analysts suggest that bonds are now viewed as a "weak asset," and recommend adopting a "weak mindset" towards them, reflecting a shift in institutional preferences towards equities over bonds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate is not expected to decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement [10]. - The allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [10]. - Against the backdrop of revised economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Profit - The cumulative and monthly year - on - year declines in industrial enterprise profits have both narrowed. From January to July, the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to January - June. In July, the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to June, indicating continuous improvement in corporate profitability [5]. - Analyzing industrial enterprise profits from the aspects of volume, price, and profit margin, from January to July, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the PPI of all industrial products decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, both decreasing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - June. The profit margin of above - scale industrial revenue decreased by 4.63% year - on - year, an increase of 0.18 percentage points compared to January - June. The recovery of the profit margin drove the narrowing of the decline in industrial profits [5]. Structure By Industry Category - From January to July, the total profit of the mining industry decreased by 31.6% year - on - year, the profit of the manufacturing industry increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the profit of the public utilities industry increased by 3.9% year - on - year. The expansion of the profit decline in the mining industry was due to anti - involution and frequent extreme summer weather, while the expansion of the profit increase in the public utilities industry was affected by the widespread high - temperature weather in July [6]. - In July, the profit of the manufacturing industry increased by 6.8% year - on - year, a 5.4 - percentage - point increase compared to June, driving the growth rate of the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises to accelerate by 3.6 percentage points compared to June. The profit of high - tech manufacturing changed from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the growth rate of the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June [6]. By Enterprise Nature - From January to July, the profits of state - owned enterprises decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, the profits of joint - stock enterprises decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, the profits of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the profits of private enterprises increased by 1.8% year - on - year [7]. - In July, the profits of medium - sized enterprises above designated size increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the profits of small enterprises increased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing significant improvement in efficiency. The monthly profit of private enterprises increased by 2.6% year - on - year, 4.1 percentage points higher than the average level of the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises [7]. By Industrial Chain Position - From January to July, the proportion of the cumulative profit of upstream raw material mining in the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises was 12.3%, the proportion of mid - stream material manufacturing was 15.4%, the proportion of downstream equipment manufacturing was 38.0%, the proportion of downstream consumer goods manufacturing was 21.1%, the proportion of other manufacturing was 0.6%, and the proportion of public utilities was 12.5% [7]. - Inventory destocking accelerated. At the end of July, the nominal and real inventory year - on - year were 2.4% and 6.0% respectively, both decreasing by 0.7 percentage points. The overall asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises at the end of July was 57.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [7]. Market - The industrial enterprise profit data was released at 9:30. Although the cumulative and monthly year - on - year declines in industrial enterprise profits both narrowed, the bond market did not trade based on this data, and bond yields fluctuated within a narrow range. After the mid - day break, the A - share market rose first and then fell back, with heavy trading volume and a decline. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond yields first rose and then fell. At the end of the session, due to redemption factors, funds changed from buying to selling, and coupled with tightening funds, bond yields rose again [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of solid foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection to achieve better investment outcomes [2] - The article discusses the recent performance of fixed income plus (固收+) products, highlighting that despite being a mix of equity and debt, the predominant debt component can lead to declines when the bond market experiences significant downturns [3][5] - A table is provided showing the performance of various asset allocation strategies over different time frames, indicating that higher equity exposure generally leads to better returns, especially over the long term [5] Group 2 - The performance data reveals that a 100% equity allocation yielded a 31.80% return over the past year, while a 100% bond allocation only achieved a 3.81% return in the same period [5] - The article suggests that understanding the impact of bond market fluctuations is crucial for investors in fixed income plus products, as these fluctuations can offset equity gains [3][5]

Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].