Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a persistent "see-saw" market trend where equities are strong while bonds are weak, driven by monetary policy expectations and market dynamics [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in government bond futures is primarily due to a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan by the central bank, reflecting a monetary easing stance [1][3] - Historical data shows that since 2010, the "see-saw" trend has occurred 13 times, lasting an average of about 3 months, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 20% during these periods [2] Group 2 - The current "see-saw" trend has lasted about 1.5 months, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 10% and 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 14 basis points and 22 basis points, respectively [2] - Factors influencing the end of the "see-saw" trend include monetary policy, fundamental economic conditions, and significant external events [2][3] - The central bank's recent monetary policy report did not mention any plans for rate cuts or restarting government bond purchases, indicating limited room for bond market strength in the near term [2][3] Group 3 - The equity market's strong performance has led to a significant outflow of funds from the bond market, driven by a heightened profit effect in equities rather than a tightening of the economic outlook [3] - The potential for a rate cut by the central bank in the fourth quarter could provide support for the bond market, especially if it aims to stabilize the real estate sector or prevent rapid appreciation of the yuan [3][4] - The upcoming manufacturing PMI data is anticipated to have a positive impact on the bond market if it exceeds 50, while the equity market may face short-term correction pressure after recent gains [4]

Market Overview - The global market continued the trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" over the past week, with overall stock market gains, particularly notable performances from Japan and A-shares, while bonds and gold weakened [1][29]. Weekly Performance Review - Global stock markets generally rose, with specific indices showing the following changes: - A-shares (CSI 300) increased by 2.84% - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 1.08% - Japan's Nikkei 225 surged by 4.53% - The US Nasdaq 100 gained 0.80% - The German DAX increased by 0.97% - India's Sensex 30 rose by 0.83% - Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index increased by 2.47% - In contrast, bond markets experienced declines, with the overall bond market down by 0.56%, and US 20-year+ Treasury bonds falling by 1.12% [2][7][29]. Investment Strategies - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" portfolio achieved a weekly increase of 0.8%, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date return of 11.19% [6][8]. - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio rose by 0.53%, with a cumulative return of 7.80% year-to-date, indicating a strong performance for a conservative, balanced strategy [11]. - The "Peace of Mind Bond" portfolio declined by 0.42%, with a year-to-date return of only 0.58%, reflecting the overall weakness in the bond market [15]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a cautious outlook, aiming to preserve existing gains and avoid missing out on opportunities, with a target of maintaining over 10% returns for the year [8][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver. The strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially increasing the selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds and widening the spread between long - and short - term yields. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect has intensified. In the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. The issuance of new 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds on August 22 may trigger a switch of the CTD bonds for far - month contracts under the policy of levying VAT on interest from interest - rate bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the inter - period spread brought by the issuance of new bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market a. Futures Prices and Volumes - T主力收盘价108.000，环比上涨0.06%，成交量63938，环比增加11704；TF主力收盘价105.450，环比上涨0.06%，成交量38506，环比减少16805；TS主力收盘价102.326，环比持平，成交量36357，环比增加5932；TL主力收盘价116.110，环比上涨0.34%，成交量62804，环比减少37112 [2] b. Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.05 to - 0.46, while the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.42 to - 8.11 [2] c. Futures Positions - T主力持仓量57904，环比减少11640；TF主力持仓量50434，环比减少12248；TS主力持仓量35544，环比减少7131；TL主力持仓量40766，环比减少7308. The net short positions of different contracts also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Bond Market a. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a decline, such as 2500802.IB (6y) dropping to 98.8632, a decrease of 0.1253 [2] b. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities changed, with the yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y increasing by 0.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.75bp, and 1.40bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] c. Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight decreased, while the silver - pledged 14 - day rate remained unchanged [2] d. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3. Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 2530 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1287 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 4. Industry News - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5%. The August LPR quotation remained stable. The yields of treasury bonds strengthened on Thursday, and the treasury futures also showed an upward trend. Domestically, economic data in July showed a mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish monetary policy [2] 5. Key Events to Watch - On August 21 at 21:00, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was to be released. On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - **Silver Pledge and Shibor**: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - **LPR**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - **Budget Revenue**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - **LPR Quote**: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - **Previous Bond Market Situation**: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially with increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. In this context, the "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on opportunities for the expansion of term spreads brought about by curve steepening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价108.015, down 0.29%; TF主力收盘价105.455, down 0.21%; TS主力收盘价102.304, down 0.04%; TL主力收盘价116.090, down 1.33%. All contract volumes increased, with T主力成交量 at 20962, TF主力成交量 at 14257, TS主力成交量 at 5008, and TL主力成交量 at 47329 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes, such as TL2512 - 2509价差 down 0.13 to - 0.60, T09 - TL09价差 up 1.11 to - 8.08 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量 decreased by 12157 to 107322; TF主力持仓量 increased by 357 to 86134; TS主力持仓量 decreased by 4546 to 61412; TL主力持仓量 decreased by 7726 to 61613. The net positions of the top 20 traders also had various changes [2]. 3.2 CTD Bond Data The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, for example, 220010.IB(6y) decreased by 0.3457 to 106.5921, and 250007.IB(6y) decreased by 0.2601 to 99.0955 [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields The yields of treasury bond active bonds increased, with the 1 - year yield up 0.20bp to 1.3600%, the 5 - year yield up 1.75bp to 1.5825%, the 7 - year yield up 1.20bp to 1.6850%, and the 10 - year yield up 1.30bp to 1.7450% [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates All short - term interest rates increased, such as the silver - pledged overnight rate up 6.76bp to 1.4776%, the Shibor overnight rate up 3.80bp to 1.4360%, etc. [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates The 1 - year LPR rate remained at 3.00%, and the 5 - year LPR rate remained at 3.5% [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 2665 billion, the maturity scale was 1120 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and support key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12% [2]. - **Housing Prices**: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The number of cities with month - on - month increases in new - home prices decreased, and only one city had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - August 20, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value. - August 21, 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a structural market trend in July, characterized by strong stock performance and weak bond performance, leading to overall positive returns across various investment portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In July, the A-share market rose by 3.54%, while the Hong Kong market increased by 2.91%. The U.S. market saw a moderate gain of 2.38%, and the German DAX and Japanese Nikkei 225 had lower increases of 0.65% and 1.44%, respectively. India was the weakest performer with a decline of 2.90% [4]. - The Vietnamese market experienced a significant rise of 9.19%, with timely profit-taking executed to avoid potential downturns [4]. - The bond market overall declined by 0.26%, with U.S. Treasuries dropping by 1.05%, while gold saw a slight increase of 0.49% [4]. Group 2: Portfolio Performance - The "省心债组合" (Comfortable Bond Portfolio) achieved a positive return of 0.02% amidst a generally declining bond market, indicating effective volatility control and timing strategies [7][8]. - The "睿定投全球版" (Smart Global Investment Portfolio) rose by 2.46% in July, showcasing strong performance in a competitive market environment [11][12]. - The "懒人均衡组合" (Lazy Balanced Portfolio) recorded a total increase of 8.05% in the first seven months of 2025, surpassing the previous year's total return of 7.87% [13][17]. - The "红利组合" (Dividend Portfolio) focused on high-dividend assets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, achieving a monthly increase of 4.09% and a cumulative return of 7.23% for 2025 [21]. Group 3: Strategy and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes the importance of not chasing monthly profits but rather focusing on minimizing losses and achieving steady gains through diversified asset allocation [30]. - Investment strategies are tailored for different risk appetites, with specific portfolios designed for conservative and aggressive investors [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025H1, the performance of major asset classes showed a characteristic of "strong stocks and weak bonds." Convertible bond funds led the market, with a median return rate of 7.16%, outperforming stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds. The overall performance of "fixed - income +" funds was better than that of pure - bond funds, and some funds performed brightly [1][10][15] - The top - performing "fixed - income +" funds in 2025H1 were mainly convertible - bond - enhanced funds. Stock - enhanced funds were concentrated in companies like Wells Fargo, China Asset Management, and Bosera. The top 30 list of ordinary "fixed - income +" funds was relatively scattered [2][48][51] - High - performing "fixed - income +" funds continued to overweight convertibles in sectors such as metals and mid - stream manufacturing, underweight bank convertibles, and also had a clear preference in stock investment, overweighting stocks in industries such as metals, military, TMT, and medicine [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 2025H1, How Did "Fixed - Income +" Funds Perform? 3.1.1 Stock - Strong and Bond - Weak, Convertible - Bond Funds Led the Market - In 2025H1, the performance of major asset classes showed a characteristic of "strong stocks and weak bonds." The equity market continued to recover and broke through key points, while the bond market oscillated and corrected. As of June 30, the Wind All - A Index recorded a 5.83% increase, and the CSI 2000 rose 15.24%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index recorded a 7.02% positive return, outperforming major broad - based stock indexes [10] - Convertible - bond funds led the market, with a median return rate of 7.16% in 2025H1, significantly outperforming stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds. In the expectation of a better - performing equity market, the share of passive index - type and hybrid bonds increased significantly, while pure - bond funds were heavily redeemed [15][16] 3.1.2 The Net Value of "Fixed - Income +" Funds Recovered, and the Convertible - Bond Strategy Was Superior - After re - defining "fixed - income +" funds based on post - event asset allocation and classifying them into 7 sub - categories within 3 major categories, as of 2025Q2, 1418 "fixed - income +" funds had a total share of 1148.329 billion, a 16.54% increase from the end of 2024, and a total net asset value of 1496.58 billion, a 17.23% increase from the end of 2024 [27][28] - By the end of 2025H1, the stock and convertible - bond positions of "fixed - income +" funds decreased slightly. The market value of stocks held increased by 10.71% to 160.9 billion, while the market value of convertible bonds decreased by 4.92% to 255.8 billion. The stock position decreased by 0.63 pct to 10.75%, the convertible - bond position decreased by 3.98 pct to 17.09%, and the bond position increased by 0.86 pct to 99.48% [34] - Over 90% of "fixed - income +" funds had positive returns in 2025H1, and overall, they had good drawdown control. Convertible - bond - enhanced funds performed brightly but had a slightly higher drawdown range [40][44] 3.2 Which High - Performing "Fixed - Income +" Funds Led the Market? 3.2.1 Performance Review of Existing "Fixed - Income +" Funds - Among the top 30 funds with the highest interval returns in 2025H1, 26 were convertible - bond - enhanced funds, 2 were ordinary "fixed - income +" funds, and 2 were stock - enhanced funds. Huashang Fund had multiple convertible - bond - enhanced funds on the list. If only considering funds with a share of over 200 million, 28 convertible - bond - enhanced funds were on the list, along with 1 ordinary stock - enhanced fund and 1 ordinary "fixed - income +" fund [2][48] - The top 30 stock - enhanced funds in 2025H1 were concentrated in fund companies such as Wells Fargo, China Asset Management, and Bosera. Their asset - allocation strategies were somewhat differentiated, with some having a convertible - bond position of over 15%, while most held little or no convertible bonds [51] - The top 30 convertible - bond - enhanced funds in 2025H1 were mostly high - convertible - bond - position funds, distributed among various fund companies. Wells Fargo Jiuli and Huashang Fengli led the market, and China Europe Convertible Bond performed well in the convertible - bond fund category [2][52] 3.2.2 Performance Review of Newly - Issued "Fixed - Income +" Funds - Among the potentially high - performing "fixed - income +" funds newly established since 2023Q3, the top 30 were mostly secondary - bond funds (23). Except for China Merchants Anze Wenli, the returns in 2025H1 were all within 5%, and the maximum drawdown was mostly within 2% [2][56] - China Merchants Anze Wenli recorded a 6.17% positive return in 2025H1 with a maximum drawdown of 4.91%. It is a partial - bond hybrid fund, and the equity - class position contributed highly to the overall return [56] 3.3 What Are the Characteristics of the Holdings of High - Performing "Fixed - Income +" Funds? 3.3.1 History: What Directions Did High - Performing Funds Invest In? - At the end of 2024Q4 and 2025Q1, various top "fixed - income +" funds significantly overweighted manufacturing - chain convertible bonds and underweighted bank convertible bonds. They also overweighted partial - stock and high - price convertible bonds and underweighted high - rating convertible bonds. In terms of stock industry allocation, they overweighted leading - rising industries such as metals, machinery, electronics, and computers and underweighted industries that declined significantly in 2025Q1 [3] 3.3.2 Present: Where Are High - Performing Funds Investing? - High - performing "fixed - income +" funds continue to significantly overweight convertible bonds in sectors such as metals and mid - stream manufacturing, underweight bank convertible bonds, overweight high - price convertible bonds above 130 yuan and partial - stock convertible bonds, and underweight medium - price convertible bonds between 110 - 120 yuan [3] - They significantly overweight stocks in industries such as metals, military, TMT, medicine, and light manufacturing, underweight cyclical and financial - type industry stocks, and significantly overweight small - and medium - cap stocks with a market value between 10 - 50 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in both price and trading volume, indicating a strong market interest despite a potentially weak short-term trend in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 25, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.07%, with a latest price of 110.92 yuan, and has accumulated an increase of 11.40% over the past year [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 12.952 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [4]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 40.61 billion yuan over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 18.01% and a trading volume of 2.34 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 3.59 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the current "strong stock, weak bond" trend may continue in the short term, with the bond market's performance heavily reliant on stock market dynamics and the continuity of liquidity [3]. - Despite short-term concerns, the long-term pricing logic remains intact, with potential opportunities arising from market adjustments [3]. Group 4: Fund Characteristics - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month was 0.029%, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF has shown significant trading activity and inflows, indicating a robust interest in long-term government bonds despite a prevailing "strong stock, weak bond" market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of July 24, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) was priced at 123.12 yuan, with a turnover rate of 22.59% and a half-day trading volume of 4.464 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the past week reached 7.532 billion yuan [1]. - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 19.773 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - The 30-year Treasury ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 813 million yuan, totaling 1.784 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to analysts, the current bond market adjustment reflects two key characteristics: a rising risk appetite due to stock market gains, which puts pressure on the bond market, particularly long-term bonds, and historically low credit spreads, making the bond market structurally vulnerable to negative factors [1]. - The short-term outlook suggests that the "strong stock, weak bond" trend may persist, with future bond market performance dependent on stock market dynamics and the continued transmission of liquidity to interest rates [1]. - Overall, while the current bond yields appear attractive, the short-term trend is weak, and defensive strategies should be prioritized, with potential structural opportunities available [1].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure due to rising long-term interest rates, driven by increased risk appetite, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and heightened commodity inflation sentiment [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, with the commodity market also rising, while the bond market faced pressure with yields increasing [1] - The 10-year government bond yield approached 1.72%, and the 30-year yield exceeded 1.93%, breaking the recent narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Despite a recovery in the afternoon, the overall trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" continues, with the 10-year yield falling back below 1.7% [1][3] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the current bond market adjustment reflects two main characteristics: rising risk appetite and historically low credit spreads, making the bond market structurally fragile [2] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with liquidity staying reasonably ample, as evidenced by the DR007 operating around 1.5% [2] - There is a shift in asset preferences, with bonds under pressure due to insufficient returns and unfavorable market conditions, while commodities and stocks attract more capital [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue facing downward pressure in the short term, with the key factors being the stock market's performance and the sustainability of loose liquidity [3] - Structural opportunities may arise, particularly in the short to medium-term credit bonds supported by ample liquidity, which may exhibit a "more gains than losses" trend [3] - If the stock market maintains a strong oscillating pattern, long-term bonds may face ongoing pressure and repricing risks [3]