针对家电品类，个人消费者购买冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类家电中1级能效或水效标准的产品，按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位 消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过1500元；针对数码和智能品类，个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品（单件销售价 格不超过6000元），按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过500元。 根据上述规则，2026年起，消费者可享受共十类家电以及数码和智能产品补贴，单人累计至高可省11000元。此外，《通知》提及，支持智能家居产品（含 适老化家居产品）购新补贴，具体补贴品类、补贴标准将由地方结合实际自主合理制定。 以京东为例，在国补使用方式上，消费者只需三步便能轻松获取2026国补省钱体验。第一步，打开京东APP，搜索"国家补贴"，即可抵达国补主会场；第二 步，点击进入对应省市，按照页面提示领取国补资格；第三步，消费者可在会场浏览选购，也可直接搜索国补商品完成下单，完成国补减免！ 此外，京东MALL、京东电器城市旗舰店、京东之家、京东家电专卖店等线下渠道等同步展开国补承接。1月1日起，消费者可直接前往就近京东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was relatively dull as it was the last trading week of 2025, and the market's reaction to economic data was not obvious due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. However, the three major domestic PMI indices in December returned to the expansion range, indicating signs of economic recovery [6]. - In November, the external demand of the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The National Fiscal Conference stated that fiscal policy will continue to exert force, and the scale of fiscal expenditure may further increase next year, leading to an increase in the supply pressure of interest rate bonds. Additionally, the current main allocation force for long-term bonds is facing challenges in its ability to absorb long-duration assets, intensifying the adjustment pressure in the long-end market. Under the fragile sentiment in the bond market, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Recently, the weakening of the US dollar index has supported commodities. The National Fiscal Work Conference held at the end of the week regarding next year's fiscal work, especially the arrangements for trade-ins, also supported commodity trends from the demand side. The overall macro atmosphere in the market is positive, and the commodity index is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend [6]. - The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is highly divided. Most officials support further rate cuts if inflation gradually declines. The Fed may restart balance sheet expansion, boosting market liquidity expectations. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term. The Bank of Japan tends to be hawkish, and the euro is expected to strengthen due to the widening interest rate differential, while the yen continues to fluctuate under the influence of carry trades and fiscal concerns [10]. - In December, the official manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, indicating that the manufacturing industry has expanded again. The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to the expansion range. The improvement in the construction industry's prosperity, driven by factors such as relatively high temperatures in some southern provinces and enterprises seizing the construction progress before the holidays, is expected to continue [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock Market**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.59%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures fell by 0.78%. A-share major indices generally declined, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was dull, but the economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.09%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.39%. The economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted, and the supply pressure of interest rate bonds is increasing. The long-end market faces adjustment pressure, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. The recommendation is to conduct range trading [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell by 6.87%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell by 1.77%. The weakening of the US dollar and fiscal policies support commodity trends. The recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.21%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.25%. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, the euro is expected to strengthen, and the yen continues to fluctuate. The recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: In 2026, the "national subsidy" policy for equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins was launched, with the first batch of 6.25 billion yuan in funds allocated. The VAT rate for selling housing purchased for less than two years was lowered from 5% to 3%. The new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operating mechanism, and ecological system will be launched on January 1, 2026, and digital RMB will start to accrue interest. The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented, with 935 commodities subject to lower import provisional tax rates [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that most officials support further rate cuts if inflation declines. The US President met with the Ukrainian President, but no major announcements were made. The United Nations Transferable Goods Documents Convention was passed, filling a legal gap in land trade. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes were hawkish, suggesting future rate hikes [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was also 50.1, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing industry [17]. - **US**: The month-on-month rate of the existing home sales contract signing index in November was 3.3%, higher than expected. The month-on-month rate of the FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4%, and the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted housing price index was 1.3% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic data will be released next week, including the US December ISM manufacturing PMI, France and Germany's December CPI month - on - month preliminary values, Germany's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the eurozone's December CPI annual rate preliminary value, the US December ADP employment number, etc. [76]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.87% at 25,630.54 points, with a total trading volume of HKD 1,189.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.86%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.12% [1] - For the year 2025, the Hang Seng Index recorded a cumulative increase of 27.77%, marking its best performance since 2017. The China Enterprises Index rose by 22.27%, and the Tech Index increased by 23.45%, the best since its inception [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, under a backdrop of loose monetary policy, foreign and southbound capital are expected to continue net inflows, with potential for substantial improvement in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) rose 1.39% to HKD 131.5, contributing 3.55 points to the Hang Seng Index, driven by growth in its AI business [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Sunny Optical Technology (02382) up 1.16%, Zijin Mining (601899) up 0.85%, while Innovent Biologics (01801) fell 3.66%, and New Oriental-S (09901) dropped 2.49% [2] Sector Highlights - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down over 1% and Tencent down 0.17%, while Baidu saw an increase [3] - The film sector remained active, with the total box office for the 2025 New Year holiday surpassing HKD 5 billion, marking a new high for the past eight years [3] - The aviation sector saw collective gains among major airlines, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 4.92%, China Southern Airlines (01055) up 4.3%, and Air China (00753) up 3.36% [4] Mining Sector - Zijin Mining Group reported a projected net profit of USD 1.5-1.6 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 212%-233%, while Zijin Mining expects a net profit of CNY 51-52 billion, up 59%-62% [5] - Zijin Mining's production targets for 2026 include 105 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper, indicating strong growth potential [5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector showed mixed results, with Great Wall Motors (02333) up 3.24% and GAC Group (02238) up 0.74%, while Li Auto-W (02015) fell 1.44% [6] - New policies for 2026 regarding vehicle subsidies have been announced, which may stabilize consumer expectations for car purchases [6] Notable Stock Movements - InnoCare Pharma (03696) surged 23.88% to HKD 37.14, recognized for its advancements in AI-driven drug discovery [7] - Derin Holdings (01709) increased by 9.68% after announcing conditional approval for virtual asset trading services [8] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) reached a new high, up 5.36% to HKD 42.88, supported by rising copper prices [9] - KANAT Optical (02276) rose 4.25% following the announcement of new policies supporting digital and smart products [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market closed with a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% to 25,630.54 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 118.97 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.86%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.12% [1] - For the year 2025, the Hang Seng Index recorded a cumulative increase of 27.77%, marking its best performance since 2017, while the China Enterprises Index and Tech Index rose by 22.27% and 23.45%, respectively [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is expected that under a backdrop of loose monetary policy, foreign and southbound capital will continue to flow into the market, potentially leading to a substantial increase in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) rose 1.39% to HKD 131.5, contributing 3.55 points to the Hang Seng Index, driven by growth in its AI business [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Sunny Optical Technology (02382) up 1.16%, Zijin Mining (02899) up 0.85%, while Innovent Biologics (01801) fell 3.66% and New Oriental-S (09901) dropped 2.49% [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down over 1% and Tencent down 0.17%, while Baidu saw an increase [3] - The airline sector saw a collective rise, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 4.92%, China Southern Airlines (01055) up 4.3%, and Air China (00753) up 3.36%, attributed to increased travel demand during the New Year holiday [4] - The film industry remained active, with the total box office for the New Year season surpassing HKD 5 billion, marking a new high for the past eight years [3] Mining Sector - Zijin Mining Group reported a projected net profit of USD 1.5-1.6 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 212%-233%, while Zijin Mining expects a net profit of CNY 51-52 billion, up 59%-62% year-on-year [5] - Zijin Mining's production targets for 2026 include 105 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector showed mixed results, with Great Wall Motors (02333) up 3.24% and GAC Group (02238) up 0.74%, while Li Auto-W (02015) fell 1.44% [6] - New policies for 2026 regarding vehicle subsidies have been announced, which may stabilize consumer expectations for car purchases [6] Notable Stock Movements - In the AI-driven pharmaceutical sector, Insilico Medicine (03696) surged 23.88% to HKD 37.14, reflecting its advancements in drug discovery [7] - Delin Holdings (01709) rose 9.68% to HKD 2.04 after announcing conditional approval for virtual asset trading services [8] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) reached a new high, up 5.36% to HKD 42.88, supported by rising copper prices [9] - KANAT Optical (02276) increased by 4.25% to HKD 54, benefiting from new policies supporting digital and smart products [10]

AI眼镜 【CNMO科技消息】12月31日，洛图科技最新数据显示，2025年，AR眼镜的全球出货量将达110万副， 同比增长41%；中国市场的销量为45.2万副，同比增长近70%。2025年，全球智能眼镜的出货量为预测 为630万副，同比增长110%；中国市场的销量预计达137.0万副，同比增长215.7%。 据CNMO了解，12月30日，中国发改委、财政部发布了《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知》。该《通知》明确指出，与2025年相比，在数码/智能产品方面，补贴范围从数码扩 围至数码和智能产品，首次新增智能眼镜。补贴标准和2025年保持一致，比例为售价的15%，上限为 500元。 洛图科技表示，智能眼镜作为当下极具潜力但市场渗透率尚低的新兴品类，扩大其消费规模能够有效对 冲传统数码产品市场的饱和。随着智能终端产业的持续演进，未来将加速从手机领域向智能穿戴领域拓 展延伸。同时，补贴刺激终端需求，倒逼企业加大研发投入；政策也将在民生方面，契合民众的高品 质、适老化、无障碍场景下的生活和工作需求。 洛图科技认为，国家将智能眼镜纳入补贴范围，核心逻辑可概括为"扩消费、促产业、惠民生"，同 ...

央视网消息：近日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，对2026年"两新"工作作出系 统部署。与2025年相比，优化方案呈现出"精准发力，提质增效"的特征。 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 消费品以旧换新"得补率"将更高 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 设备更新领域支持范畴更广 在设备更新领域，《通知》在保持总体延续的基础上，进一步将民生关切、公共安全及线下消费领域关键设备纳入支持范畴。包括老旧小区加装电梯， 养老机构设备更新；消防救援设施、检验检测设备更新，支持商业综合体、购物中心、大型超市等线下消费商业设施设备更新。《通知》加大对中小企业设 备更新的支持力度，大幅降低申报相关领域设备更新项目的投资额门槛，实现政策红利"应享尽享"。 2026年，优化后的"两新"政策将更加注重提质增效， 扩内需，稳增长，促转型，惠民生。 在消费品以旧换新领域，《通知》明确，2026年汽车以旧换新将此前定额补贴优化调整为按车价比例补贴，报废更新补贴最高2万元，置换更新补贴最 高1.5万元。2026年家电以旧换新支持冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等六大类产品，通过 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 1119.5 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日日盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1119.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.94%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1715.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.05%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1119.5，环比日盘收盘持平。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1706.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.5%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 1、2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备 更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。 2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、智能家居等 ...

三秦都市报-三秦网讯（记者 王媚）12月30日，国家发展改革委正式发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，明确2026 年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。记者从京东获悉，2026年1月1日起，京东线上线下即将全面承接国家补贴落地。消费者购买活动指定的冰 箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器产品，单件/单次至高补贴1500元，购买活动指定的手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜产品，单件/单次至高补 贴500元，单人累计至高可省11000元。 记者了解到，自2024年"两新"政策实施以来，在商务部等部委的指导统筹下，京东采销、客服、研发、物流等数十万工作人员积极参与，全力保障国家补贴 高效、普惠落地。为更好配合以旧换新政策落地普惠，进一步促进乡村消费提振，京东在承接以旧换新工作的基础上，2025年针对乡镇及以下地区累计投入 近300亿元，用于商品补贴、营销推广、物流履约、服务能力建设等。为广大乡镇及以下消费者带去国家补贴与京东补贴的多重福利与海量国补产品，以及 一站式高效国补换新体验。 在提升国补体验方面，京东可额外提供家电品类的旧机回收补贴，"送、装、拆、收"一体化服务，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced a significant policy initiative for 2026, allocating 62.5 billion yuan for a long-term special bond to support the replacement of old consumer goods and equipment upgrades, aiming to stimulate consumption and support various sectors, including elderly care and digital products [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Support and Funding - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice regarding the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, with an early allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds [1]. - The policy aims to meet consumer demand during peak seasons such as New Year's Day and the Spring Festival [1]. Group 2: Optimizations in Policy - The 2026 policy includes three main optimizations: expanding the support scope, adjusting subsidy standards, and improving implementation mechanisms [2][3]. - In the support scope, the policy now includes the installation of elevators in old residential areas and equipment updates in elderly care institutions, as well as updates for safety equipment and commercial facilities [2]. - The consumer goods replacement program will continue to support the scrapping and replacement of vehicles and household appliances, with an expanded subsidy for digital and smart products [2]. Group 3: Subsidy Standards and Implementation - The subsidy standards have been optimized, with differentiated subsidies based on the number of floors for elevator updates and prioritizing electric vehicles for old freight truck replacements [3]. - For consumer goods, the subsidy for household appliances will focus on energy-efficient products, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item, while digital products will maintain previous subsidy standards [3]. - The implementation mechanism has been improved to lower investment thresholds for project applications, enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and ensure a unified subsidy standard across the country [3].

为保障政策平稳有序衔接，满足节日消费需求，2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持资金已 提前下达。 央广网北京12月31日消息（记者周尧）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，国 家发展改革委、财政部30日正式发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通 知》，旨在进一步释放内需潜力、推动产业升级和高质量发展。 商务部研究院流通与消费研究所研究员关利欣：通过多种方式将以旧换新的服务网络延伸至农村的 偏远地区，可以进一步扩大政策受益群体的覆盖面，也能够更好释放广大下沉市场的消费需求。 政策主要从三方面进行优化升级：一是优化支持范围。设备更新方面，新增老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备及商业消费设施更新等内容。消费品以旧换新方面，在继续实施汽车、家电补贴的同时，首 次将智能手表、智能眼镜、智能家居等产品正式纳入补贴范围。二是优化补贴标准。汽车补贴由定额调 整为按车价比例补贴；家电补贴聚焦能效水效领先产品；同时明确优先支持更新电动货车。三是优化实 施机制。 ...