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转债市场日度跟踪20250910-20250910
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-10 15:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market showed weak performance on September 10, 2025, with compressed valuations. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.63% compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - The large-cap growth style was relatively dominant. The large-cap growth index increased by 0.49%, while the large-cap value, mid-cap growth, mid-cap value, small-cap growth, and small-cap value indices all decreased [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 72.447 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.82% compared to the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 2.003952 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.88% compared to the previous day; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.294 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased by 3.51bp to 1.90% [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.63% compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%, the Shanghai 50 Index increased by 0.37%, and the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.06% [1]. - **Market Style**: The large-cap growth style was relatively dominant. The large-cap growth index increased by 0.49%, while the large-cap value index decreased by 0.10%, the mid-cap growth index decreased by 0.79%, the mid-cap value index decreased by 0.65%, the small-cap growth index decreased by 0.03%, and the small-cap value index decreased by 0.51% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 72.447 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.82% compared to the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 2.003952 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.88% compared to the previous day; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.294 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased by 3.51bp to 1.90% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high-price bonds decreased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 129.71 yuan, a decrease of 0.64% compared to the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity-oriented convertible bonds was 169.95 yuan, a decrease of 1.05% compared to the previous day; the closing price of bond-oriented convertible bonds was 118.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.67% compared to the previous day; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 126.34 yuan, a decrease of 0.67% compared to the previous day [2]. - From the distribution of convertible bond closing prices, the proportion of high-price bonds above 130 yuan was 52.86%, a decrease of 3.23pct compared to the previous day; the range with the largest change in proportion was 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 14.42%, an increase of 3.61pct compared to the previous day; there were 0 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 130.86 yuan, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the previous day [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuations were compressed. The fitted conversion premium rate of the 100-yuan parity was 29.05%, a decrease of 0.29pct compared to the previous day; the overall weighted parity was 101.38 yuan, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity-oriented convertible bonds was 8.21%, a decrease of 0.72pct compared to the previous day; the premium rate of bond-oriented convertible bonds was 80.27%, an increase of 0.98pct compared to the previous day; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 21.48%, a decrease of 0.10pct compared to the previous day [2]. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-1.18%), basic chemicals (-0.94%), and non-ferrous metals (-0.87%); the top three industries with the largest increases were communication (+3.49%), electronics (+1.78%), and media (+1.68%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 27 industries declined, and the top three industries with the largest declines were beauty care (-1.56%), automobile (-1.38%), and machinery and equipment (-1.31%); the only industry that rose against the trend was communication (+0.91%) [3]. - **Closing Price**: The large-cycle sector decreased by 0.67%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.15%, the technology sector decreased by 0.20%, the large-consumption sector decreased by 0.87%, and the large-finance sector decreased by 0.55% [3]. - **Conversion Premium Rate**: The large-cycle sector decreased by 0.52pct, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.49pct, the technology sector decreased by 1.2pct, the large-consumption sector decreased by 0.51pct, and the large-finance sector decreased by 0.69pct [3]. - **Conversion Value**: The large-cycle sector decreased by 0.18%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.61%, the technology sector increased by 0.68%, the large-consumption sector decreased by 0.34%, and the large-finance sector decreased by 0.08% [3]. - **Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The large-cycle sector decreased by 0.95pct, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.7pct, the technology sector decreased by 0.34pct, the large-consumption sector decreased by 1.1pct, and the large-finance sector decreased by 0.65pct [3]. Industry Rotation - The communication, electronics, and media industries led the rise. In the stock market, the daily increase rates of communication, electronics, and media were 3.49%, 1.78%, and 1.68% respectively; in the convertible bond market, the daily increase rate of communication was 0.91%, while other industries showed varying degrees of decline [56].
可转债周报20250901:转债主体上半年业绩如何?-20250901
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-01 02:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, over half of the convertible bond issuers saw year - on - year revenue growth. It is advisable to focus on some industry targets with in - line mid - year reports and reasonable valuations, while avoiding targets with lower - than - expected mid - year reports and high prices and premiums. Also, pay attention to the repair market of individual bonds with marginal improvements in post - mid - year - report orders/ prices in the 'anti - involution' industries and track policy catalysts from the third quarter onwards [1][2][10][16]. - Currently, A - shares still show good allocation value in terms of risk premium. In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is some support on the demand side under the background of supply contraction. However, as the current overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a relatively high level, caution should be exercised regarding correction risks. Attention should be paid to hot themes, the repair opportunities of low - level technology growth sectors, and industries with improved domestic demand and high - dividend sectors [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. How were the Issuers' Performance in the First Half of 2025? - Among 440 convertible bond issuers, 269 and 218 issuers saw year - on - year increases in operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for 61.14% and 49.55% respectively. There were 75 convertible bonds with a net profit growth rate of over 50% and 90 with a growth rate below - 50%. There were 12 convertible bonds with a revenue growth rate of over 50% and 5 with a growth rate below - 50% [10]. - At the industry level, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry had the highest year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders, while the light manufacturing industry had the lowest. Six industries had positive median revenue and profit growth rates, and six had negative ones. Loss - making issuers were mainly concentrated in power equipment, computer, basic chemicals, and pharmaceutical biology industries [12]. - Among individual bonds, 169 issuers achieved year - on - year growth in both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders, and 122 issuers saw year - on - year declines in both [16]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A - share market fluctuated upward. Considering the risk premium, A - shares still have good allocation value. In the convertible bond market, supply contraction provides some support on the demand side, but high valuations pose correction risks. Industries worthy of attention include hot themes, low - level technology growth sectors, domestic - demand - oriented industries, and high - dividend sectors [17][18]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, major equity market indices closed higher, with a market style more inclined towards large - cap growth. Among the Shenwan industries, 15 rose and 16 fell, with communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics leading the gains [22][25]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Closed Lower, and the Premium Rate per 100 - Yuan Par Value Declined - The convertible bond market closed lower this week, with the average daily trading volume increasing. All 29 industries in the convertible bond market declined, with the automotive, social services, and non - banking finance industries leading the losses. Most individual bonds fell, and the median convertible bond price decreased [27][32][34]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased. The current premium rate per 100 - yuan par value is above the 50th percentile since 2017 [39]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, there was valuation differentiation in the convertible bond structure. The valuation of convertible bonds with a par value between 110 - 120 increased, while most others decreased. Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have bottomed out and rebounded [49]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings and scales declined. Historically, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have weaker downside resistance and greater rebound potential [60][61]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Market Issuance Plans - One new convertible bond was listed this week, and three were issued but not yet listed. There were 11 primary approvals this week, and Jinchengxin received approval from the CSRC to issue 2 billion yuan of convertible bonds [68]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 7 convertible bonds announced potential downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, 1 proposed a downward revision, and Ou 22 Convertible Bond announced the result of a downward revision. Also, 7 convertible bonds announced potential redemptions, 4 announced no early redemptions, and 9 announced early redemptions. As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put - option period, and 16 were in the company's capital - reduction repayment period [73][76][79].
可转债周报(2025年8月18日至2025年8月22日):气势如虹-20250823
EBSCN· 2025-08-23 07:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From January to August 22, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +17.9%, slightly lower than the +18.3% increase of the CSI All-Share Index. Although the current valuation quantiles of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, with the equity market on the rise, the subsequent performance of convertible bonds is still worth looking forward to [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - From August 18 to August 22, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +2.8% (last week's increase was +1.6%), and the CSI All-Share Index rose by +3.9% (last week's increase was +2.9%). The convertible bond market continued to rise, and the increase was greater [1]. - By rating, high-rated bonds (rated AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (rated AA), and low-rated bonds (rated AA- and below) rose by +3.2%, +3.3%, and +2.8% respectively this week, with low-rated bonds having the smallest increase [1]. - By convertible bond scale, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance less than 500 million yuan) rose by +2.5%, +3.2%, and +3.3% respectively this week, with small-scale convertible bonds having the largest increase [1]. - By parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra-low parity bonds (conversion value less than 70 yuan) rose by +4.0%, +2.9%, +2.6%, +2.4%, and +4.2% respectively this week, with ultra-low parity bonds having the largest increase [2]. Current Convertible Bond Valuation Levels - As of August 22, 2025, there were 450 outstanding convertible bonds (456 at the close of last week), with a balance of 623.836 billion yuan (627.415 billion yuan at the close of last week) [3]. - The average convertible bond price was 134.42 yuan (131.58 yuan last week), with a quantile of 100%; the average convertible bond parity was 106.74 yuan (104.19 yuan last week), with a quantile of 96.9%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 27.8% (28.6% last week), with a quantile of 56.0%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) convertible bonds was 32.2% (30.8% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.2%) [3]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - This week, the top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase were Dongshi Convertible Bond, Jintong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. The increase rates ranged from 11.64% to 90.12%, and the corresponding underlying stocks also had varying degrees of increase [24].
转债市场日度跟踪20250820-20250820
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-20 13:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the convertible bond market showed a trend of increasing in price with decreasing trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.36%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.23%, the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.23%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.86%. The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, with the trading volume of the convertible bond market at 81.547 billion yuan, a 16.74% decrease from the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A at 2.448414 trillion yuan, a 7.28% decrease from the previous day. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 33.57 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose by 0.95bp to 1.78% [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds increased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.22 yuan, a 0.37% increase from the previous day. The valuation of convertible bonds also increased. The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 31.69%, a 0.89pct increase from the previous day [2]. - In the industry performance, most underlying stock industries rose. In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were Beauty Care (+2.42%), Petroleum and Petrochemicals (+2.36%), and Electronics (+2.32%), while the only declining industry was Medicine and Biology (-0.07%). In the convertible bond market, 20 industries rose, with the top three rising industries being Beauty Care (+1.68%), Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.40%), and Petroleum and Petrochemicals (+1.38%) [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.36%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.89%, the ChiNext Index by 0.23%, the SSE 50 Index by 1.23%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 0.86% [1]. - **Market Style**: The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant. The large - cap growth rose by 1.06%, the large - cap value by 0.82%, the mid - cap growth by 1.72%, the mid - cap value by 1.04%, the small - cap growth by 1.37%, and the small - cap value by 0.96% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 81.547 billion yuan, a 16.74% decrease from the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.448414 trillion yuan, a 7.28% decrease from the previous day; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 33.57 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose by 0.95bp to 1.78% [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - **Convertible Bond Price**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.22 yuan, a 0.37% increase from the previous day. The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 60.22%, a 0.13pct increase from the previous day. The price median was 133.94 yuan, a 0.42% increase from the previous day [2]. - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 31.69%, a 0.89pct increase from the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 101.21 yuan, a 0.87% increase from the previous day [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Industry**: 29 industries in the A - share market rose, with the top three rising industries being Beauty Care (+2.42%), Petroleum and Petrochemicals (+2.36%), and Electronics (+2.32%); the only declining industry was Medicine and Biology (-0.07%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: 20 industries in the convertible bond market rose, with the top three rising industries being Beauty Care (+1.68%), Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.40%), and Petroleum and Petrochemicals (+1.38%); the top three declining industries were Building Materials (-1.57%), Environmental Protection (-1.09%), and Computer (-0.94%) [3]. - **Index Changes in Different Sectors**: In terms of closing price, the large - cycle decreased by 0.03%, manufacturing increased by 0.38%, technology increased by 0.09%, large - consumption increased by 0.48%, and large - finance increased by 0.15%. In terms of conversion premium rate, the large - cycle decreased by 0.62pct, manufacturing increased by 0.023pct, technology decreased by 0.91pct, large - consumption decreased by 0.18pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.54pct. In terms of conversion value, the large - cycle increased by 0.14%, manufacturing increased by 0.17%, technology increased by 0.72%, large - consumption increased by 5.27%, and large - finance increased by 0.73%. In terms of pure bond premium rate, the large - cycle increased by 0.0079pct, manufacturing increased by 0.49pct, technology increased by 0.11pct, large - consumption decreased by 0.12pct, and large - finance increased by 0.18pct [3].
固收专题:转债市场风格或切换
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 09:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, with a series of policies taking effect, the economy is likely to remain stable and inflation is expected to rise continuously. The seesaw effect between core assets and dividend assets may switch, and the two are expected to enter a stage of resonant growth. The convertible bond market is expected to continue its upward trend, and the style may shift to core assets [3][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Possibilities in the Second Half of 2025 - **Scenario 1: Economic stability and inflation recovery** - In this scenario, the heavy - weight stocks of various industries are expected to benefit from economic stability and inflation recovery, and core assets are likely to have an upward trend. If market liquidity is abundant, core assets and small - cap stocks may rise in resonance; if liquidity is limited, funds may rotate from small - cap stocks to core assets. For example, from 2016 - 2017, the economy was stable and inflation recovered, but market liquidity was limited, resulting in the rise of core assets and the decline of small - cap stocks [7]. - **Scenario 2: Economic slowdown and no inflation recovery** - Similar to the period from 2022 to September 2024, small - cap stocks may lead the rise initially, but they will experience a supplementary decline later because their rise cannot deviate from the economic fundamentals for a long time. For example, in April 2022, February 2024, and August - September 2024, small - cap stocks showed such trends [8]. - **Scenario 3: Economic slowdown, inflation decline, but market expectation repair** - Similar to the second half of 2014, core assets are expected to follow up and rise, like from November to December 2014 [2]. Seesaw Effect between Core Assets and Dividend Assets - From 2019 to April 2025, there was an obvious seesaw effect between core assets and dividend assets. From 2019 to January 2021, core assets rose while dividend assets fluctuated; from February 2021 to April 2025, dividend assets continued to rise while core assets declined significantly. However, in the second half of 2025, the seesaw effect may switch, and the two may rise in resonance [3][4]. - The rise of dividend assets from 2022 to April 2025 was mainly due to the certainty of high dividend yields. But as the valuation repair is gradually completed, the driving logic of dividend assets may shift to the profit factor. For example, the coal industry stopped rising after 2024, and the bank's yield has been low since July 2025, indicating a shift in the market's focus to the profit logic [4]. Convertible Bond Views - Considering that the economy is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2025 and inflation is expected to rise under the anti - involution policy, convertible bonds are expected to continue their upward trend. In terms of style, the economic stability in the second half of 2025 is conducive to the rise of core assets. Also, as the logic of dividend assets may change, dividend assets, as leading companies in some fields, are expected to become generalized core assets, and the two types of assets may rise in resonance [6]. Small - Cap Stock Market - The small - cap stock market is mainly driven by industrial trends. For example, in the new energy industry from 2021 - 2022, despite a short - term adjustment in the first quarter of 2022, it rose significantly again later due to the good development of the industrial trend. However, the industry began to decline continuously after the supply - demand pattern changed in the fourth quarter of 2022 [5].
债市早报:增值税法实施条例公开征求意见;风险偏好回升,债市大幅走弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 03:15
【内容摘要】8月11日,资金面保持均衡偏松态势;市场风险偏好回升,债市大幅走弱;转债市场跟随权益 市场继续上行,转债个券多数上涨;各期限美债收益率走势分化,主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率走势分 化。 一、债市要闻 (一)国内要闻 【增值税法实施条例向社会公开征求意见】8月11日,为保障《中华人民共和国增值税法》顺利施行,财政 部会同税务总局研究起草的《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例(征求意见稿)》正式公开征求意见,截止 日期为2025年9月10日。增值税是我国第一大税种,2024年增值税收入约6.57万亿元,占全部税收收入的 38%。业内专家表示,通过制定条例对增值税法有关规定进一步细化、明确,有利于增强税制的确定性和可 操作性,形成配套衔接的增值税制度体系,为增值税法顺利实施提供保障。 【境外央行类机构参与银行间债市投资流程进一步简化】为进一步简化境外央行类机构入市投资流程,中央 结算公司8月11日发布公告,即日起不再要求境外央行类机构提供协议签署承诺书。全国银行间同业拆借中 心同日发布了《关于简化境外央行类机构开户及联网材料的通知》。《通知》指出,为进一步提升境外央行 或货币当局、国际金融组织、主权财富 ...
转债市场周报:平价及估值双击,市场情绪高涨-20250811
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-11 07:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the equity market generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,600 points. The military industry sector remained high due to the approaching military parade, and the non - ferrous metals sector was boosted by factors such as rising gold prices and increased rare - earth exports. The pharmaceutical sector, which had accumulated high gains, saw a decline in sentiment. The bond market was generally volatile, and the new VAT regulations had no significant impact. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.68bp to 1.69% on Friday [1][8][9]. - In the convertible bond market, most individual convertible bonds rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.31% for the whole week, the median price rose by 2.23%, the arithmetic average parity increased by 2.86%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.09% compared to the previous week [2][9]. - After a very short - term adjustment, the equity market rose again, and the convertible bond market performed better. As of last Friday, the average price of convertible bonds was close to 145 yuan, and the median market price reached 130 yuan, both at the highest levels since 2023. In the short term, there are no obvious negative factors in the equity market. In the convertible bond market, although the bond - bottom protection has decreased, the current valuation is slightly lower than in August 2022, and the bond market interest rate is much lower. The supply - demand pattern can still strongly support convertible bonds, and the probability of a significant short - term adjustment is low, but more attention should be paid to bond selection [3][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Focus (August 4 - August 8, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 3,600 points. The military industry sector was affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, and the non - ferrous metals sector was driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and increased rare - earth exports in July. The pharmaceutical sector with high previous gains saw a decline in sentiment [1][8]. - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose. National defense and military industry (+5.93%), non - ferrous metals (+5.78%), machinery and equipment (+5.37%), comprehensive (+4.32%), and textile and apparel (+4.23%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-0.84%), computer (-0.41%), commercial retail (-0.38%), and social services (-0.11%) performed poorly [9]. Bond Market - The bond market was generally volatile last week. The new VAT regulations on the previous Friday had no significant impact. Although the central bank conducted net withdrawals for several consecutive days, the overnight capital price remained low, and the capital environment was relatively loose. The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect was weak, and there were even days when stocks, bonds, and commodities all rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.69% on Friday, down 1.68bp from the previous week [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most individual convertible bonds rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.31% for the whole week, the median price rose by 2.23%, the arithmetic average parity increased by 2.86%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.09% compared to the previous week [2][9]. - By industry, most sectors in the convertible bond market rose. Beauty care (+4.18%), non - ferrous metals (+4.16%), machinery and equipment (+4.16%), and national defense and military industry (+3.70%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (+0.76%), building materials (+1.09%), social services (+1.28%), and food and beverage (+1.44%) performed poorly [12]. - At the individual bond level, bonds such as Jian (related to the Xinzang Railway), Julong (PEEK materials), Gaoce (photovoltaic & robotics), Dongjie (robotics), and Borui (innovative drugs) had the highest increases; bonds such as Qizheng (innovative drugs), Haopeng (solid - state batteries & announced forced redemption), Saili (innovative drugs), Yingji (military industry & announced forced redemption), and Tianlu (Yaxia Hydropower concept) had the highest decreases [2][13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 422.376 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 84.475 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [17]. Views and Strategies (August 11 - August 15, 2025) - After a very short - term adjustment, the equity market rose again, and the convertible bond market performed better. The CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed the major stock indices, and the convertible bond valuation further increased. As of last Friday, the average price of convertible bonds was close to 145 yuan, and the median market price reached 130 yuan, both at the highest levels since 2023 [3][19]. - In the short term, there are no obvious negative factors in the equity market. In the convertible bond market, although the bond - bottom protection has decreased, the current valuation is slightly lower than in August 2022, and the bond market interest rate is much lower. The supply - demand pattern can still strongly support convertible bonds. The increase in the convertible bond holdings of public funds in July and the continuous expansion of the convertible bond ETF scale since late July reflect the strong allocation demand for convertible bonds. The probability of a significant short - term adjustment is low, but more attention should be paid to bond selection [3][19]. - In terms of direction, as the interim reports of listed companies are being released, there is still room for growth in low - priced stocks of equity - biased underlying stocks with good performance. It is recommended to find high - quality targets in sectors such as computing power, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, components of humanoid robots, AI applications benefiting from large - model iterations, and solid - state battery materials. Dividend assets led by banks have relatively lagged behind in this round of the market, so it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of dividend sectors such as banks, water services, and gas. In addition, pay attention to opportunities in high - quality new and sub - new convertible bonds [4][20]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (August 8, 2025), for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 44.32%, 34.38%, 25.28%, 18.4%, 12.37%, and 7.79% respectively, at the 94%/92%, 94%/95%, 90%/90%, 87%/84%, 80%/71%, and 80%/59% percentile levels since 2010/2021 [21]. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 2.72%, at the 0%/0% percentile level since 2010/2021 [21]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 37.94%, at the 72%/56% percentile level since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 9.09%, at the 45%/43% percentile level since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (August 4 - August 8, 2025), the Weidao Convertible Bond was issued, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock, Weidao Nano (688147.SH), belongs to the power equipment industry, with a market value of 15.315 billion yuan as of August 8. The company is a global high - end micro - nano equipment manufacturer for semiconductors and pan - semiconductors. The scale of the issued convertible bonds is 1.17 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA, and the issuance was announced on August 4. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are planned to be invested in projects such as the construction of a semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment intelligent factory, the expansion of a research laboratory, and the replenishment of working capital [29]. - As of the announcements on August 8, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week (August 11 - August 15, 2025). Last week, there was 1 company with a board of directors' plan (Sanxin Medical), and no companies passed the exchange's approval for registration, the listing committee's review, the exchange's acceptance, or the shareholders' meeting [30]. - As of now, there are 74 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 116.62 billion yuan. Among them, 4 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 3.56 billion yuan, and 4 have passed the listing committee's review, with a total scale of 8.98 billion yuan [30].
转债周度跟踪:分化初见端倪,高价转债明显占优-20250809
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-09 14:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of August, convertible bonds rebounded strongly, recovering losses from the end of July and reaching new highs. High - priced bonds performed strongly, while low - priced bonds were mediocre. Tech and cyclical sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical sector declined. The industry theme showed high rotation. The strong performance of convertible bonds was supported by three factors: the resilience of the equity market, high bullish sentiment and continuous inflow of funds into the convertible bond market, and a high forced - redemption rate leading to an imbalance in supply - demand. The positive sentiment in the convertible bond market is expected to continue. It is recommended to pay attention to dividend - low - volatility convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds and bottom - up opportunities of high - elasticity varieties [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's Viewpoint and Outlook - In the first week of August, convertible bonds rebounded strongly. Structurally, high - priced bonds were strong and low - priced bonds were mediocre. Tech and cyclical sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical sector declined. The industry theme had high rotation. The strong performance was due to the resilience of the equity market, high bullish sentiment and fund inflow, and a high forced - redemption rate. There are no obvious short - term negative factors, and the positive sentiment in the convertible bond market is expected to last. Attention should be paid to the cost - performance switch between pure bonds and convertible bonds, especially bank convertible bonds, and bottom - up opportunities of high - elasticity varieties. The future will shift from position - winning to structure - winning [1][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, convertible bonds and underlying stocks rebounded, with valuations rising strongly and convertible bonds having strong follow - up ability. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds was 33%, up 1.68% week - on - week, and the latest quantile was at the 91.10% percentile since 2017. The valuation increase of high - and low - rated convertible bonds was similar this week, and the valuation quantile of high - rated convertible bonds was higher than that of low - rated ones. - This week, convertible bonds rose strongly following the underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity hit a new low since 2017, reporting - 5.60%. As of now, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 42.35%, 39.35%, and - 5.60% respectively, changing + 0.29%, + 3.87%, and - 0.86% from last week, and their current quantile levels were at the 62.60, 68.90, and 0.00 percentiles since 2017 [4][6][9]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Youzu, Baidian, Haopeng, Dongcai, Xince, and Longhua Convertible Bonds issued early - redemption announcements. Currently, there are 24 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements and have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 5.1 billion yuan. There are 45 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 10 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [4][14][18]. 3.3.2 Downgrade - This week, Ou22 Convertible Bond proposed a downgrade, and Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 announced a downgrade to the bottom. As of now, 139 convertible bonds are in the non - downgrade period, 24 cannot be downgraded due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downgrade trigger price without an announcement, 31 are accumulating downgrade days, and 4 have issued board - of - directors' plans for downgrades but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [4][21]. 3.3.3 Put - back - This week, Tianchuang Convertible Bond issued a put - back announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - back announcements, 4 are accumulating put - back trigger days, 3 of which are in the non - downgrade period and 1 has proposed a downgrade [4][24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Weidao Convertible Bond issued an issuance announcement. According to the latest announcement, there are no bonds to be listed next week. As of now, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.7 billion yuan, and 4 in the listing - committee - approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 9 billion yuan [4][26][28].
转债市场日度跟踪20250806-20250806
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-06 15:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On August 6, 2025, most convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The small-cap growth style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market increased [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high-priced bonds rose. The valuation was compressed, with the fitting conversion premium rate of 100-yuan parity decreasing [2]. - In the A-share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose. In the convertible bond market, 26 industries rose, and only two industries fell [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.58% day-on-day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.09% [1]. - The small-cap growth style was relatively dominant, with small-cap growth rising 1.15% [1]. - The convertible bond equal-weight index rose 0.76%, the convertible bond index rose 0.72%, the convertible bond pre - plan index rose 1.70% [7]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 87.489 billion yuan, a 1.53% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1759.242 billion yuan, an 8.88% increase [1]. - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11.049 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond decreased by 0.62bp to 1.70% [1]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitting conversion premium rate of 100-yuan parity was 29.47%, a 0.11pct decrease from the previous day; the overall weighted parity was 97.68 yuan, a 0.49% increase [2]. - The conversion premium rates of all types of convertible bonds by stock - bond nature increased, with the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds rising 1.59pct [28]. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the top three industries in terms of gains were National Defense and Military Industry (+3.07%), Machinery and Equipment (+1.98%), and Coal (+1.89%); the top three industries in terms of losses were Pharmaceutical Biology (-0.65%), Commerce and Retail (-0.23%), and Building Materials (-0.23%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three industries in terms of gains were Media (+4.17%), National Defense and Military Industry (+2.18%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.63%); the two industries with losses were Building Materials (-2.36%) and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (-0.11%) [3]. - In terms of different sectors, the closing price of the large - cycle sector rose 0.56%, the manufacturing sector rose 0.76%, the technology sector rose 1.96%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.67%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.16% [3]. Industry Rotation - National Defense and Military Industry, Machinery and Equipment, and Coal led the rise. The underlying stocks of National Defense and Military Industry rose 3.07% day - on - day, and the convertible bonds rose 2.18% [52]. - The report also provided the weekly, monthly, and year - to - date price changes, as well as the valuation quantiles of different industries [52].
可转债周报(2025年7月28日至2025年8月1日):持续上涨后稍有调整-20250802
EBSCN· 2025-08-02 07:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January to August 1, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +10.3%, and the CSI All-Share Index rose by +8.6%. The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market. After five consecutive weeks of gains, the convertible bonds adjusted slightly this week. Fundamental trends and anti-involution policies are important influencing factors for the current convertible bond market. Investors can continue to focus on convertible bonds in areas such as boosting domestic demand and anti-involution [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by -1.4% (last week's increase was +2.1%), and the CSI All-Share Index changed by -1.1% (last week's increase was +2.2%). Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +10.3%, and the CSI All-Share Index has risen by +8.6%. The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market [1] - By rating, high-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) fell by -2.03%, -0.29%, and -0.93% respectively this week, with high-rated bonds having the largest decline. By convertible bond scale, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance less than 500 million yuan) fell by -1.66%, -0.85%, and -0.83% respectively this week, with large-scale convertible bonds having the largest decline. By parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan) rose slightly by +0.38% this week, while other types of parity bonds had varying degrees of decline [2] - By industry, the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of gains mainly came from machinery and equipment (6), pharmaceutical biology (4), and electronics (4); the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of losses mainly came from chemicals (5), non-ferrous metals (4), etc. [2] 2. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of August 1, 2025, there were 463 outstanding convertible bonds (468 at the close of last week), with a balance of 636.614 billion yuan (637.942 billion yuan at the close of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 127.7 yuan (128.87 yuan last week), with a quantile of 97.7%; the average convertible bond parity was 100.65 yuan (101.20 yuan last week), with a quantile of 89.3%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 27.4% (27.3% last week), with a quantile of 55.4%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 27.6% (29.0% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.0%) [3] 3. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - This week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by -1.4%. After five consecutive weeks of gains, the convertible bonds adjusted slightly this week; the CSI All-Share Index changed by -1.1%. Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +10.3%, and the CSI All-Share Index has risen by +8.6%. The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market. Looking ahead, fundamental trends and anti-involution policies are still important influencing factors for the current convertible bond market. Investors can continue to focus on convertible bonds in areas such as boosting domestic demand and anti-involution [4] 4. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of gains this week included Qizheng Convertible Bond, Bo 25 Convertible Bond, Dongjie Convertible Bond, etc. For example, Qizheng Convertible Bond had a convertible bond increase of 45.60% and an underlying stock increase of 39.99% [24]