2026年美联储议息票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周四表示，通胀水平持续高企不利于美联储再次降 息，她担心货币政策可能没有做好应对当前通胀的准备。哈玛克表示，在上周的政策会议之后，我认为 货币政策几乎没有限制性，而且在我看来，目前应该采取进一步政策行动的理由并不明显。哈玛克称， 美联储继续面临高于其目标的通胀压力，而目前的货币政策设定对经济增长势头几乎没有限制作用。她 反对美联储上周降息的决定。哈玛克承认劳动力市场存在问题，但同时警告说，失业率仍然处于低位。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan supports continuing the interest rate cuts in the last meeting of the year, positioning himself as a relatively dovish figure within the Fed's decision-makers [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan believes that continuing to lower interest rates remains a reasonable policy choice, questioning whether the economic fundamentals have changed enough to warrant a shift in this policy path [3]. - The Federal Reserve recently decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, following a previous cut in September, although Milan had advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points during the meeting [3][5]. - There is a noticeable divergence among Fed officials regarding the economic outlook, with some expressing concerns about inflation risks and being cautious about further rate cuts in December [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Milan acknowledges that official economic data presents challenges for assessment but emphasizes that current inflation levels are below expectations and the job market remains stable [5]. - Recent employment data indicates an increase of 42,000 jobs in the private sector for October, slightly above market expectations, but Milan suggests that overall job growth potential remains moderate, with wage growth slowing [7]. - These indicators imply that interest rates should be slightly lower than current levels, according to Milan's analysis [7].

米兰在接受采访时表示，就业数据虽有回升，但规模依然有限，工资涨幅持续放缓，劳动力需求也明显 降温，不如周期性高点时期强劲。他认为，这些迹象表明当前利率"可能比现有水平更低才算合适"。 美联储理事米兰周三表示，10月美国私营部门就业数据"令人惊喜"，但他同时强调当前利率水平仍偏 高，未来应考虑进一步下调。 根据ADP Research Institute公布的数据，10月美国私营企业新增就业人数为42,000人，而前一个月的数 据已被修正为减少29,000人；媒体调查预期中值原本为新增30,000人，实际数据明显好于预期。 市场方面，米兰的讲话被视为增强年内继续降息概率的信号。一旦其观点在美联储内部获得更多支持， 利率预期将进一步调整，这可能推高债券价格、压低收益率，同时支撑科技股等利率敏感型资产走势。 但过度宽松同样可能扩大通胀风险敞口。 尽管就业数据略有回升，整体增速放缓、薪资降温，意味着美国劳动力市场可能正在从"卖方市场"转 向"买方市场"。若趋势持续，持续维持高利率的合理性将进一步下降，也为米兰主张提供更多论据。 米兰近期多次公开呼吁进一步降息，并在今年9月和10月美联储仅下调利率25个基点时投下反对票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, predicting that inflation risks will persist into next year, leading some economists to believe that the easing cycle initiated in February may have come to an end [1] Group 1 - The number of segments with high inflation levels remains concerning, posing a substantial challenge to the Reserve Bank of Australia's narrative of "inflation easing" over the past few quarters [1] - Morgan Stanley economist Tom Kennedy suggests that the easing cycle is likely over, with the cash rate expected to remain at 3.6% [1]

11月4日，欧洲央行管理委员会成员、芬兰央行行长雷恩（Olli Rehn）称，央行必须对通胀前景面临的 上行和下行风险保持所有选项开放。此外，他确认明年将竞选央行副行长一职。雷恩表示，虽然不确定 性有所缓解，但"仍然还居高"。 "在这种环境下，保持决策的充分灵活性至关重要，我们不会承诺任何具体的利率路径，"雷恩说道，他 有望接替现任欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯（Luis de Guindos）的职务，后者的任期将于2026年5月 结束。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must remain vigilant against inflationary risks and resist the temptation to make minor adjustments to its policies [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Governing Council, highlighted the need to be cautious about upward inflation risks due to uncertainties in supply chains, energy costs, and unexpectedly strong potential price pressures [1] - Kazimir emphasized that these factors indicate a persistent risk that officials must acknowledge, warning against complacency at this stage [1] Group 2: Policy Stance - Despite the inflation concerns, Kazimir reaffirmed the ECB's position that its policies are well-positioned to address the challenges posed by the current turbulent environment [1] - He advised the central bank to avoid being overly aggressive, even if short-term forecasts suggest that price pressures may not meet the ECB's targets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a potential interest rate cut in December due to concerns about the labor market and expected inflation decline [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that the current inflation rate, based on the PCE index, is approximately 2.5%, indicating it is not significantly above the target of 2% and is expected to continue decreasing [3] - Waller's stance contrasts with other officials who express concerns about persistent inflation risks, highlighting a division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy direction [1][2] Group 2 - Waller has been an early proponent of interest rate cuts compared to many of his colleagues, indicating a proactive approach to addressing employment risks [3] - He has previously opposed the decision to maintain interest rates in July, showcasing his consistent advocacy for a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - Waller's potential candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair position after Powell's term ends adds a layer of political context to his statements and positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly uncertain, with internal divisions among officials regarding the timing and necessity of further rate reductions [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a continued rate cut in December due to risks of a slowing labor market, contrasting with other officials who express concerns about inflation risks [3][4]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from over 90% to approximately 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [4]. Group 2: Internal Divisions Among Officials - There is a notable increase in internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with two voting members opposing the recent rate cut, indicating a split in views on monetary policy [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that the recent rate cut may have been too aggressive, citing ongoing inflation risks [3][5]. - Market analysts suggest that if future economic data remains mixed, the divisions within the Federal Reserve may persist for a longer period [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Bill Gross, co-founder of Pimco, has adopted a bearish stance on U.S. Treasuries, citing excessive expansion risks in the U.S. financial system and a growing deficit [6]. - Investors are advised to adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less affected by short-term policy fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Board member Waller advocates for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over the labor market and expected inflation decline [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - Waller emphasizes the need for a rate cut in December due to potential continued slowdown in job growth, stating that all data supports this action [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month to address the evident labor market slowdown [2]. - Fed Chair Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Concerns - Waller downplays the inflation risks associated with Trump's tariffs, suggesting that excluding temporary tariff impacts, inflation measured by the PCE index is around 2.5% and expected to decline further [4]. - He believes that tariffs will only cause a one-time price spike and that the Fed should prioritize employment risks over inflation concerns [4]. Group 3: Waller's Position and Future Prospects - Waller, nominated by Trump in 2020, is one of the candidates being considered for the Fed Chair position after Powell's term ends in May next year [4]. - He has been an early advocate for rate cuts compared to many of his colleagues and previously opposed the decision to maintain rates in July [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to lower interest rates in December due to ongoing risks in the labor market, as stated by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Waller emphasized that the current primary concern is the labor market, and he advocates for a rate cut in December based on data indicating the need for such action [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points for the second consecutive month to address a significant slowdown in the labor market during the summer [1] - Waller's comments come amid opposition from other Federal Reserve officials regarding the recent rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Waller downplayed the inflation risks associated with President Trump's tariff policies, suggesting that if temporary tariff impacts are excluded, the inflation rate measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is approximately 2.5% [1] - He noted that while the inflation rate is not at the target of 2%, it is not significantly above it, and a decline is expected [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Waller has been an early advocate for rate cuts compared to most of his colleagues, arguing that tariffs only cause one-time price increases and that employment risks should take precedence [2] - He expressed willingness to accept the role of Federal Reserve Chair if asked by the President, indicating his potential candidacy for the position [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that he is conducting a "second round" of interviews for candidates to succeed Powell, with Waller being one of the candidates [2]