澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）对澳洲联储的前景预测更为强硬，预计2026年两次加息25个基点，从2月开 始，随后在5月进行第二次加息，这与目前的市场定价（长时间维持利率不变）大相径庭。持续的通胀 风险和部分国内经济的韧性被视为澳洲联储恢复紧缩政策的推动力，尽管人们普遍预期政策利率已经见 顶。NAB的呼吁呼应了花旗本周稍早表达的类似观点，花旗也警告称，如果通胀证明是顽固的，澳洲 联储可能采取进一步行动，市场可能低估了这一风险。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储柯林斯：认为未来通胀风险低于此前水平。 ...

12月15日，本周即将公布的多项重要经济数据成为市场关注焦点，包括因美国政府停摆而延迟发布的10 月及11月非农就业报告、平均时薪增速以及失业率数据。这些劳动力市场指标将为评估经济运行状态提 供关键参考，进而影响市场对美联储1月会议决策的预期。此外，周四将公布的最新通胀数据同样备受 瞩目，通胀走势的边际变化将直接关系到货币政策的后续走向。在数据发布前夕，部分交易者采取了相 对谨慎的仓位管理策略，这在一定程度上抑制了价格的单边波动幅度。 从资金流向角度分析，黄金交易所交易基金持续录得净流入，反映出机构投资者对贵金属配置需求的持 续性。各国央行购金行为同样构成了金价的结构性支撑因素，全球储备资产多元化趋势推动央行层面对 黄金的战略性增持。此外，部分投资者将资金从主权债券与货币市场转向贵金属的趋势有所延续，这一 现象与对冲通胀风险、规避汇率波动以及寻求资产保值的多元化需求密切相关。美元走势方面，美元指 数近期呈现震荡偏弱格局，十年期美债收益率回落至4%附近区间，均对以美元计价的黄金价格形成间 接支撑。 技术面：周初看黄金的强势延续性。早盘开盘，黄金在4300之上运行，很明显，黄金保持绝对的强势， 按照上周五的435 ...

今日金价延续反弹态势，国内品牌金店黄金零售价格于12月15日普遍上调。其中老庙黄金上涨7元/克，以1352元/克的报价 领跑全场，成为今日最高价金店；而上海中国黄金则以1245元/克的报价处于低位，仍为最低价金店，二者价差拉大至107 元/克。 上周五金价上涨主要是疲软的美国经济数据强化了市场对美联储的降息预期，外加央行持续购金，紧张的地缘政治局势支 撑金价。不过部分投资者在金价冲高后，选择提前获利了结，限制了当日的金价涨幅。 目前在美联储未来降息问题上，有多位美联储官员（古尔斯比、施密德、哈玛克）发表鹰派言论，核心逻辑均是对通胀风 险的担忧超过对就业市场的支持。直接影响了市场对美联储未来降息路径的预期，进而作用于金价。 对于金价走势，Walsh Trading总监Sean Lusk认为，当前黄金的上涨并非短期投机所致，其背后是央行增储、养老金及投资 基金长期配置等结构性买盘的强力推动。，因此即便出现因价格上涨而引发的短线获利了结，也不会破坏整体技术形态上 的牛市格局。 | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年12月15日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | ...

格隆汇12月15日｜花旗预测，随着通胀风险上升，澳洲联储将在2026年加息两次，分别在2月和5月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Euro against the US Dollar, highlighting the divergence in monetary policies between the US and the Eurozone as a key driver for the Euro's strength [1][2]. Group 1: US Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 12, 2025, with a 9:3 voting split indicating a heated debate between hawkish and dovish members [1]. - Despite the rate cut being accompanied by a "hawkish signal," the market anticipates continued easing in 2026, leading to a short-term decline in the US Dollar index [1]. - The Fed's decision to restart the purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, interpreted as implicit easing, has further pressured the Dollar [1]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Resilience - The European Union forecasts a GDP growth of 1.3% for the Eurozone in 2025, with a notable acceleration in the third quarter and strong performances from economies like France and Spain [1]. - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone remains at historically low levels, and consumer recovery is supporting the economic fundamentals [1]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings, with President Lagarde stating that current rates are "appropriate," indicating a likelihood of no changes in December [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Export Pressures - The Euro's ascent faces dual constraints: inflation risks, with the Eurozone's core inflation at 2.4% in November, and potential downward pressure on inflation from a stronger Euro [2]. - Export pressures are heightened as the Euro is at a trade-weighted high, complicating the situation for German companies and increasing external uncertainties due to global trade barriers and rising tariffs on exports to the US [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The Euro has stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming an upward trend line, but is approaching a dense trading zone between 1.16 and 1.17, leading to increased market caution and reduced trading volume [2]. - A breakout above this range could confirm an upward trend, while failure to do so may trigger profit-taking and test the lower bounds of the trading range [2]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the ECB's year-end meeting on December 18, where economic and inflation forecasts will be discussed, and the Federal Reserve's officials' speeches and US economic data releases to clarify the pace of Dollar easing [2]. - Predictions suggest that the Fed's rate cuts will slow in 2026 while the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, which could lead to continued strength in the Euro against the Dollar by year-end [2].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing renewed focus following a price surge above $63 per ounce, indicating strong upward momentum and potential for further increases [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note a significant increase in bullish sentiment as the gold-silver ratio briefly surpassed 80 but could not hold, leading to renewed interest from buyers [1][2]. - The recent price increase has prompted market participants to adjust their stop-loss levels, reflecting high confidence in the silver market's future performance [3][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The ongoing global electrification and expansion of AI infrastructure are driving industrial demand for silver, while supply constraints remain unaddressed [4]. - The supply-demand gap is becoming a crucial factor in driving silver prices, reinforcing the market's belief in a long-term upward trend [4]. Valuation Perspective - Despite silver prices stabilizing above $63, they remain relatively low compared to gold prices, with historical gold-silver ratios typically ranging between 50 and 60 [4]. - Analysts predict the gold-silver ratio may decline to around 40, which could accelerate silver price increases, indicating that its relative value has not been fully realized [4]. Future Outlook - There are expectations that silver prices could reach $75 per ounce by 2026, with potential price adjustments providing attractive buying opportunities [2][5]. - Factors such as anticipated loose monetary policy, balance sheet expansion, and ongoing fiscal stimulus are expected to boost demand for hard assets, including precious metals [2][5]. - A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has lowered policy rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, enhancing expectations for further monetary easing [2][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The combination of multiple driving forces suggests a solid upward logic for precious metals, with silver offering a more attractive value proposition compared to gold [5]. - The potential for silver prices to rise further remains significant, with long-term investment value still worthy of attention in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

Fed interest rate cut of 25 bps fail to move crypto market. Source: Key Takeaways The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut on Dec. 10 failed to lift the crypto market. Instead, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins plunged within hours of the announcement. Hawkish messaging from Fed Chair Jerome Powell overshadowed the rate cut and fueled risk-off sentiment. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut on Tuesday, lowering the federal funds target to 3.50%–3.75%. It was the cen ...

市场分析认为，美联储虽预期将再度降息，但长期通胀、财政赤字与政策独立性担忧反而推高美债收益率，并引发"失望交易"在欧美、 日澳蔓延。随着多国加息预期上行及财政扩张加速，全球长期借贷成本正面临持续上行压力。 全球长债收益率已重返2009年以来最高水平，这一显著转变标志着市场对各国央行放松货币政策周期即将终结的共识日益增强。 在美联储备受瞩目的政策会议召开前几小时，债市并未如期上涨。尽管市场普遍预计美联储将连续第三次降息，但投资者正基于对长 期通胀、财政赤字及未来货币政策独立性的担忧抛售债券，推动30年期美债收益率重回多月高位，10年期美债收益率亦徘徊在9月以 来的最高水平。 市场的重新定价已波及全球，交易员目前押注欧洲央行几乎不再有降息空间，同时预计日本央行本月加息几成定局，澳大利亚央行明 年将加息两次。据彭博数据显示，衡量全球长期政府债券的一项指标已回升至16年高点，澳大利亚和欧洲多国的长债收益率近期均大 幅飙升。 随着主要发达市场国债收益率走高，投资者正重新评估通胀风险及特朗普及贸易战背景下的全球增长前景。这表明，去年启动的、曾 推动全球股市创下历史新高的宽松周期可能正步入尾声，市场焦点已转向各国激增的公共 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is reducing expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while major central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Canada are facing rising rate hike expectations, potentially reshaping the global monetary policy landscape by 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Expectations - Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by only 50 basis points in 2026, primarily concentrated in the first half of the year, a significant reduction from previous expectations of three cuts [1][2]. - The SOFR futures contracts indicate a narrowing of the expected rate cut path, with the spread between December 2025 and December 2026 contracts reaching the smallest negative value since June [2]. - Market sentiment is shifting towards a neutral stance among Treasury investors, with the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since September, indicating a decline in bullish momentum [2]. Group 2: Inflation Risks and Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that persistent inflation pressures could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation measures, raising the risk of rate hikes in 2026 [2][3]. - The expectation of fiscal stimulus and unexpected growth in corporate earnings may contribute to higher inflation risks, complicating the Fed's rate cut strategy [3][4]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Divergence - In contrast to the Fed's expected rate cuts, several major central banks are anticipated to raise rates, with the ECB's likelihood of rate hikes surpassing that of cuts by 2026 [5]. - The divergence in monetary policy is partly attributed to the lesser-than-expected impact of the Trump trade war on U.S. trading partners, which may exacerbate the decline of the U.S. dollar [5].