（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $4500 per ounce, alongside a historical high in silver prices, driven by a collective rise in commodity markets [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The US dollar index continues to decline, trading below 98 [2]. - The current exchange rates include USDX at 97.8933, EURUSD at 1.17965, and GBPUSD at 1.35137, with slight fluctuations noted [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - Lower interest rates are making gold more attractive as they reduce expected returns on government bonds, leading to increased demand for gold as both a safe haven and speculative asset [4]. - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices will reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Yardeni Research has raised its forecast for gold to $6000 per ounce by the same date, citing macroeconomic concerns rather than a rebound in global economic activity [6]. - UBS analysts note that gold has rebounded quickly since a sharp decline in late October, driven by geopolitical tensions and a favorable US interest rate environment, with expectations of continued high demand from central banks and investors [6].

【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 昨日黄金日内震荡，晚间受到数据何必显得加持下，价格持续拉升，冲击4350一线阻力位。虽然短期承压回落，但避险居高不下。假设企稳4350会继续向上 发起攻击冲向4380再次刷新高。与此同时，昨日白银更是突破66关口，再次创下历史新高66.88。今日需要关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI 数据，明日需要关注日本央行。今明两天还是比较重要的，谨防下冲高回落。 如果CPI和PCE数据确认通胀降温，降息预期将进一步升温；如果委内瑞拉局势升级成冲突，避险需求会爆炸式增长。但要警惕美元反弹和美联储内部分歧 后回落。短期内，黄金有望分别测试4350和4380压制。 结合白银今日还是主多为主。下方支撑4320附近，接近不破短多。假设震荡洗盘4306附近也可以多。短期内，黄金有望分别测试4350和4380压制。上方接近 4360附近不破轻仓试空，进一步关注4380压制，周四周五需要警惕二次探高不破带来的回落。 本轮预测在12月21日（当日休市，可关注19号或22号），也就是冬至附近，黄金可能会有新的转折!（上次全网公开提前预测10月22日大跌兑现，不知大家 还有印象没有？） 【操 ...

智通财经APP注意到，随着投资者关注美国通胀数据并监测委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，黄金价格逼近历史新高。白银则攀升至新的峰值，延续了强劲的 涨势。 金价升至每盎司 4325 美元以上，从前一交易日结束五连涨的小幅下跌中恢复过来。定于周四公布的通胀数据将受到密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息的 意愿可能受到何种影响的线索。在该数据发布之前，几位关键的美联储官员将公开发表讲话。 委内瑞拉的事态发展也提振了金价，美国总统特朗普下令封锁所有受制裁的油轮。在该地区军事集结和地面打击威胁的背景下，特朗普正在加大对委内瑞拉 总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的压力。 投资者正密切关注任何进一步货币宽松的迹象，此前美国央行上周进行了连续第三次降息——这对不支付利息的贵金属来说是一个利好因素。目前，交易员 认为一月份降息的概率接近 25%。 随着委内瑞拉局势紧张升级，金价逼近历史高位 黄金价格距离 10 月份创下的每盎司 4,381 美元以上的历史最高纪录不远。今年以来，这种贵金属已上涨约三分之二，有望创下 1979 年以来的最佳年度表 现。这波迅猛的涨势得益于中央银行的大幅买入，以及投资者从政府债券和主要货币中普遍撤离。地缘政治紧张局势也增 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a shifting global economic landscape and increasing market volatility, investors are increasingly focusing on the stability and risk resistance of their asset portfolios. Gold, as a time-tested hard currency, plays a crucial role as a "ballast" in asset allocation, and the emergence of gold ETFs allows ordinary investors to conveniently capture the long-term value of gold [1]. Group 1: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year. Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined, the dollar index weakened, and gold prices shifted from a decline to an increase, maintaining high volatility [1]. - The FOMC's voting results showed 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating a division in the committee regarding inflation pressures and economic slowdown assessments. The committee also announced a monthly purchase plan of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain ample reserves [4]. Group 2: Gold's Unique Attributes - Gold is recognized for its strong safe-haven properties, providing stability during geopolitical conflicts, global economic crises, and unexpected market events. Unlike traditional financial assets, gold's intrinsic value is less affected by a single economy or financial system, making it a reliable asset during times of uncertainty [9]. - Gold serves as an effective hedge against inflation, as its value is closely tied to physical commodities. In environments of monetary expansion and rising inflation, gold can maintain its value, helping investors preserve purchasing power [9]. - The low correlation of gold with traditional assets enhances its appeal for risk diversification. Gold's pricing logic is distinct from that of stocks and bonds, allowing it to act independently and even provide a counterbalance during traditional asset downturns [10]. Group 3: Gold ETFs as an Investment Tool - Gold ETFs address the challenges of traditional physical gold investment, such as storage issues, high transaction barriers, and limited liquidity, making them an optimal tool for ordinary investors to engage in gold investment [12]. - Gold ETFs facilitate convenient and low-cost investment in gold, allowing investors to trade gold as easily as stocks without the burdens of physical gold ownership, such as storage and transportation costs [12]. - The high liquidity of gold ETFs supports dynamic portfolio adjustments, enabling investors to buy or sell based on market conditions without facing liquidity constraints [13]. - Gold ETFs are designed to closely track gold prices, ensuring that investors can capture long-term appreciation without the risks associated with gold-related stocks or funds [13]. Group 4: Conclusion on Gold's Role in Asset Allocation - In the current complex market environment, the focus of asset allocation has shifted from "pursuing high returns" to "achieving stable appreciation." Gold, with its safe-haven, anti-inflation, and low-correlation attributes, serves as a "ballast" for navigating economic cycles, while gold ETFs provide accessible, low-cost, and highly liquid investment options for ordinary investors [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that increasing the allocation of gold in investment portfolios is becoming an inevitable choice for institutional investors, especially given the significant rise in gold prices this year, which have increased by up to 60%, outperforming major indices like the Nasdaq and Hang Seng [5][6]. Group 1 - Gold has demonstrated a unique investment logic this year, moving beyond traditional pricing mechanisms based on "safe-haven" and "anti-inflation" narratives [6]. - Historical context shows that gold prices surged around 2010 due to inflation and asset bubbles driven by China's stimulus measures, leading to increased domestic demand for gold [6]. - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is highlighted, noting that low US interest rates at the time allowed for profitable arbitrage opportunities involving gold imports and domestic lending [6].

今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14855一线上方，今日开盘于14525元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报14914元/千克，上涨3.90%，最高触及15033元/千克，最低下探14486元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 全球地缘政治动荡为白银提供了额外支撑。美国总统特朗普对俄乌双方极度失望，已不想再听到任何谈 判，白宫发言人周四表示。此前乌克兰总统泽连斯基称，美国正敦促乌克兰割让土地以换取结束近四年 战争。 此外美委紧张局势持续加剧，特朗普称，美国"正在采取强有力行动"，并表示边境地区的毒品运输已下 降92%。在回应中，特朗普进一步暗示美方可能升级行动范围，称"行动很快就会从海上延伸至陆地"， 但未透露具体细节。 另外以色列总理内塔尼亚胡召集安全内阁会议，担忧对黎巴嫩军事行动重启，这些事件虽未直接爆发， 但增加了全球不确定性，推动资金流入白银避险。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银继续走高，一度成功突破15000元/千克重要关口。本周基本没有回落空间，都是慢涨走势，整体在 多头趋势中，直接上涨，也可能会走出调整上涨，如果直接上涨就不用理会，如果是调整后上涨 ...

2025年12月4日，现货黄金短线走高，涨破4210美元/盎司，涨幅0.15%。 上海金ETF嘉实(159831)紧密跟踪上海金基准价，直接投资于上海黄金交易所的黄金现货合约，为投资 者提供透明、高效的黄金投资工具。 没有股票账户的投资者还可以通过场外联接基金(016582)布局黄金投资机遇。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 有分析指出，黄金作为兼具避险、抗通胀属性的核心资产，2026年价格走势将继续受多重复杂因素交织 影响。国际货币基金组织最新预测显示，2026年全球经济增速将从2025年的3.2%放缓至3.1%，美国经 济增速降至2.0%，欧元区与日本增速维持在1.0%-1.2%区间，新兴市场增速虽保持在4.5%左右，但内部 分化加剧。 迈科期货表示，12月3日晚间海外市场情绪从日本央行加息的担忧中逐步恢复，美国三大股指均小幅收 涨，受到欧美货币政策预期差影响，特朗普并没有立即宣布美联储新任主席人选，市场认为其当选后将 推动倾向宽松的货币政策，受此影响，美联储12月份降息概率回升，基本完全定价降息预期，欧元区 CPI同比增速回升，贵金属价格表现继续分化，其中黄金价格 ...

Core Insights - The global precious metals market experienced a rally on December 1, with gold prices reaching a six-week high and silver prices hitting a historical record, driven by a weaker dollar and heightened risk aversion in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold rose by 0.2% to $4240.54 per ounce, marking the highest level since October 21 [1] - December futures for gold increased by 0.5% to $4276.00 [1] - Silver prices surged by 2% to $57.48 per ounce, with an intraday peak of $57.86, a new all-time high [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in the dollar's value was a key factor in boosting precious metal prices, as it made gold and silver cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1] - Market sentiment showed a significant drop in risk appetite, with S&P futures down 0.8% and major cryptocurrencies also experiencing sell-offs [2] - The futures market indicates an 87% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 3: Technical and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the short-term trajectory of precious metals will heavily depend on the upcoming U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data [6] - If the PCE data is moderate, it could reinforce rate cut expectations, providing upward momentum for gold prices [6] - Some analysts caution that current precious metal prices are relatively high, indicating potential profit-taking pressure [6] - A technical analyst noted that after breaking a key resistance level, gold's next target could be $4300 per ounce, though short-term volatility may increase [6]

Group 1: India Opens Visa for Chinese Tourists - India has announced the full restoration of global tourist visa processing for Chinese citizens, ending a five-year restriction that began in 2020 [3][5] - The reopening of commercial direct flights alongside the visa policy aims to enhance bilateral relations and facilitate business interactions [5][9] - Despite the positive reception, there are concerns regarding public health, environmental pollution, and safety issues in India, which may deter some potential travelers [7][9] Group 2: Hang Seng Technology Index Volatility - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a significant decline after previously soaring over 50% earlier in the year, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 15% in two months [11][12] - Factors contributing to this decline include excessive prior gains, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, and a mini-crash in U.S. AI stocks, which negatively impacted global tech sentiment [12][13] - Despite the current volatility, the long-term investment logic remains intact, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba increasing their AI investments [13][15] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in December, with a 71% probability of a 25 basis point cut [20][22] - The outcome of this decision is crucial as it will influence market liquidity and risk appetite, potentially affecting stock and cryptocurrency prices [22][24] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in their positions, regardless of the Fed's decision, as market conditions remain uncertain [22][24] Group 4: Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset - Gold continues to be viewed as a reliable asset amid global economic uncertainties, with its value influenced by real interest rates and the U.S. dollar index [24][26] - A potential interest rate cut by the Fed could lead to a rise in gold prices, while inflation concerns may also drive demand for gold as an anti-inflation asset [24][26] - Investors are encouraged to consider gold as a long-term holding in their portfolios to hedge against market volatility [24][26]