【导读】黄金大跳水 大家好，刚刚创下新高的黄金，突然大跳水了。 一起看看发生了什么事情。 华盛顿的僵局是提振黄金避险吸引力的最新动因，此外还有对特朗普贸易战经济影响的担忧以及地缘政 治紧张。黄金今年以来已累计上涨约45%，有望创下自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 周一，国会两院领袖与特朗普的会面未能就政府的短期融资达成协议。这加剧了对政府关门的担忧，而 关门可能会阻碍经济数据的发布——使投资者无法获得评估美国经济所需的关键信息。 各国央行的购金需求以及美联储恢复降息也为金价提供了支撑。高盛集团和德意志银行认为金价仍有进 一步上涨空间。 瑞银周二在一份报告中称，对黄金市场目前倾向于看涨情景，预计到2026年年中金价将升至每盎司4200 美元。该行指出，美元走弱、央行大举购买黄金以及ETF投资增加等因素对金价构成利好，同时建议黄 金在投资组合中的配置比例为5％左右。瑞银强调，黄金与股票和债券的关联度较低，可作为对冲通胀 和地缘政治风险的工具，同时提醒投资者考虑与价格波 现货白银的价格也同步下跌。 萨克索银行商品策略师奥勒·斯洛特·汉森表示："在整个9月不间断的上涨之后，我认为目前出现了一些 月末获利了结，我也怀疑 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing tension in the US-China trade relationship, particularly focusing on China's significant reduction of US Treasury holdings and the implications for both economies [2][4][16] - China has reduced its US Treasury holdings by $573 billion over four months, reaching a new low of $730.7 billion, the lowest since December 2018 [4][18] - In contrast, Japan and the UK have increased their US Treasury holdings, indicating a stark difference in investment strategies among major creditors [6][20] Group 2 - Warren Buffett's decision to sell all his shares in BYD, after holding them for 17 years, reflects a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with US-China tensions and tariffs [12][21] - Buffett's actions are seen as a signal to other investors, suggesting a broader trend of foreign capital withdrawing from Chinese companies due to increasing geopolitical risks [14][16] - The article suggests that both China's reduction of US debt and Buffett's divestment from BYD are responses to the current economic climate shaped by US policies, indicating a shift in investment strategies [16][18]

此外，在北约东翼因俄乌战争而局势紧张加剧的情况下，东欧货币普遍贬值。泰国泰铢也出现贬值，原 因是该国出口增速创下近一年来的新低，原因是受到了美国关税的影响。 在美联储主席鲍威尔周二发表讲话之后，市场一直在期待有关美联储未来政策走向的更多明确信息。在 此次演讲中，鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即政策制定者在权衡进一步降息的过程中可能面临艰难的抉择。 市场还权衡了其他美联储官员的讲话。美联储理事鲍曼的讲话较为温和——政策制定者有可能落后于形 势，需要果断采取行动以降低利率，因为劳动力市场正在走弱。相比之下，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克 和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比都对通胀发出了警告。 在周三接受的采访中，美国财政部长贝森特表示，他对于鲍威尔尚未明确制定出降低利率的计划感到失 望。 Natixis美洲区首席经济学家Benito Berber表示："新兴市场外汇市场的当前价格走势似乎完全符合风险规 避行情的所有特征。" （原标题：美联储官员对降息模糊表态 新兴市场货币汇率下跌） 智通财经APP获悉，周三，由于美联储官员释放出的降息信号存在不确定性，美元走强，新兴市场货币 纷纷下跌。。追踪新兴市场货币的MSCI国际指数下跌了 0.2% ...

金价刚冲上3749.27美元/盎司的历史新高，白银也连着涨了三天，逼近44美元/盎司的逾14年高点。金银 齐飙，这波狂潮到底是机会还是陷阱？ 你有没有留意到，最近身边谈论黄金的人增多了？路上遇到的阿姨攥着金镯子念叨幸好早买了，办公室 同事对着手机里的贵金属K线叹气又没跟上。 最让人期待的是，这波狂潮可能才刚开头。花旗的分析师都说了，2026年这波行情说不定能蔓延到铜和 铝。 可现在呢？一边是降息预期撑着科技股往上走，一边是大家心里揣着对经济的慌。 就像有人既想享受蛋糕的甜，又怕吃多了闹肚子，只能一手握着眼下的收益，一手攥着避险的黄金，这 种矛盾劲儿，估计只有投资者自己能懂。 再说说白银，这波真是把黄金平替的角色演活了！为啥白银能跟上？人家可是身兼两职的狠角色！ 既有贵金属的金融属性，又有实打实的工业用处，电子、光伏、新能源哪样都离不开它。但咱可得清醒 点，白银这东西，脾气比黄金暴多了！它的市场规模还不到黄金的十分之一，一点资金就能搅得价格上 蹿下跳。 2010、2011年那波投机狂潮还记得吗？银价飙上去又摔下来，直接让需求停滞了十多年！所以啊，黄金 适合稳稳当当地给portfolio添点保障，白银更像个野马， ...

Group 1 - Gold has performed exceptionally well this year, rising 44% to a record $3,784 per ounce, while other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium have also seen significant increases of 53%, 60%, and 33% respectively [1] - Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," has only increased by over 20% this year, reaching $113,000, indicating a lag behind precious metals [1][3] - Central banks have been diversifying their strategies by increasing gold reserves, with a total global gold reserve of approximately 36,000 tons, as reported by the European Central Bank [1][2] Group 2 - Over the past three years, global central banks have added more than 1,000 tons of gold annually, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] - Bitcoin has not yet entered central bank balance sheets, limiting its role as a reserve asset, and ongoing sell-offs from early wallets have suppressed its price increase [3] - Deutsche Bank predicts that by 2030, both gold and Bitcoin may appear on central bank balance sheets simultaneously [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high, significantly impacting gold-related stocks and ETFs, indicating strong market momentum and investment opportunities in the gold sector [1][3][4]. Gold Market Performance - International gold prices surged, with December futures rising by $69.30, or 1.9%, to close at $3,775.10 per ounce, marking the highest closing price on record [3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 43%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted historical peak from 1980 [3]. - The recent price surge is attributed to a weakening dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, with expectations of further interest rate cuts enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Gold Stocks and ETFs - The CSI Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.01%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (up 6.08%) and Zhuhai Group (up 5.50%) [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) increased by over 2%, achieving a three-day winning streak, with its latest scale reaching 11.076 billion yuan, a one-year high [2]. - The Gold Stock ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 20 days, totaling 5.134 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 257 million yuan [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, supported by a favorable environment for gold due to anticipated interest rate cuts and a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance [4]. - The gold mining sector is expected to benefit from both rising prices and increased production, leading to improved earnings and a potential valuation recovery for gold stocks [4]. - The average P/E ratio for major gold mining companies is projected to be between 12 to 15 times by 2026, indicating significant room for valuation improvement compared to the historical average of around 20 times [4].

周一开盘，市场给出了三个耐人寻味的镜头： - 金价"开门就冲"，并未回吐上周五的任何涨幅，而是继续向历史高位挺进； 来源：华尔街情报圈 美股虽然跌幅不大（谨慎）——但"跳空低开"本身就是态度。市场在上周走得有点摇摆后，现在先给了个下行起点，暗示投资者宁愿先防守，观望后续数 据与美联储官员讲话。 三股力量并行：避险、信心、谨慎。方向未统一，却都在酝酿大行情。正如我们独家编制的《恐惧与贪婪指数》所暗示的那样：A股、美股、黄金、人民 币均出现重大信号，很可能出现大行情，但方向不一致。 某一时刻，市场或将迎来一次集体表态。 想看我们对全球市场更深刻的解读，可订阅《环球市场策略：轰隆隆，顶峰狂欢》，本周真正的考验，是谁能笑到最后。 报告亮点： - 美股期货"跳空低开"； - 离岸人民币"一脚跳涨"，从上周五的7.118，开盘直接跳涨到7.10。而同一时间，美元指数则没有什么波动。 第一，今日开盘市场的"跳涨"、"跳空"、"直冲云霄"几个动作，反映了市场的躁动。经历了上周方向不明，低调行事后，投资者似乎准备大举押注。 第二，今天的开盘格局就像"三个镜头"，各大市场讲述着不同的故事： 黄金开盘即涨（避险）——这个动作很重要 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasing, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which supports gold prices [2] - Gold prices have reached a historical high of 3702, with fluctuations around 3674 and 3686, indicating strong market interest [2] - The market is advised to focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and potential support levels around 3675/80 [2] Group 2 - The API reported a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, which, combined with interest rate cut expectations, has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - Crude oil prices rebounded from a low of 62.8 to a high of 64.7, breaking through a significant resistance level, although the sustainability of this trend is uncertain [4] - The market is advised to look for high and low trading opportunities around the 65 resistance level [4]

降息临近基金看空做空美元气 金银独秀继续创新高 2025年09月16日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：威尔鑫wellxin 周一国际现货金价以3642.99美元开盘，最高上试3685.33美元，最低下探3626.29美元，报收3678.69美元，上涨36.00美元，涨幅0.99%，振幅1.62%，日K 线呈震荡上行中长阳线，续创历史新高。 周一美元指数以97.59点开盘，最高上试97.70点，最低下探97.26点，报收97.34点，下跌260点，跌幅0.27%，振幅0.45%，日K线呈窄幅震荡下行小阴线。 周一Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以7502.56点开盘，最高上试7604.17点，最低下探7455.47点，报收7574.77点，上涨68.37点，涨幅0.91%，振幅1.98%， 日K线呈震荡上行中阳线，续创历史新高。 国际现货银价上涨1.25%，报收42.68美元；铂金价格上涨0.68%，报收1401.10美元；钯金价格下跌0.18%，报收1195.00美元。 NYMEX国际原油价格上涨1.09%，振幅1.84%，报收63.28美元； 伦铜上涨1.24%，振幅1.40% ...

从技术面看，黄金在创出3674美元的历史新高后，并未出现明显的顶部反转信号，例如高位射击之星或 大阴线，表明市场多头情绪依然主导走势。当前金价处于高位震荡整理，显示买盘力量并未衰竭。不 过，随着利率决议临近，多空双方或将转入观望，短期行情预计以震荡为主，下方重点关注3620-3615 一线支撑，上方关注3660一线阻力，等待政策明朗后再择方向突破。 黄金建议：回踩3625-3620布局多单 止损3615 目标3655-3660 严格设好止损 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担 高晓峰：9.15黄金高位震荡，多头力量未见衰竭 近期美国劳动力市场数据持续疲软，加之美国总统特朗普施压要求"大幅降息"，共同强化了市场对美联 储启动今年首次降息的宽松预期。受此推动，黄金上周连续第四周上涨，年内累计涨幅高达39%，凸显 其在宏观不确定性下的避险魅力。市场焦点已从"是否降息"转向"降息幅度与次数"，普遍预测美联储将 在9月和10月连续进行降息。 ...