Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the majority of steel products' prices remain stable compared to October, with some varieties experiencing price increases due to high steel production and inventory levels, leading to a relaxed supply-demand situation that hinders sustained price recovery [1][2] - The prices of various steel products such as thick plates, hot-rolled coils, and cold-rolled products remain unchanged from October, while hot-dip galvanized and electro-galvanized steel prices have increased by 100 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic consumption is currently stable, with potential for increased orders in seasonal consumption sectors, although demand for construction steel is constrained by financial and emotional factors [1][2] Group 2 - Steel production remains at a certain scale, with stable orders for specialty steel, but the overall price recovery of steel is limited due to pressure from common materials [2] - Overseas retail and manufacturing consumption is holding up, with liquidity from interest rate cuts promoting investment and consumption, providing a supportive backdrop for domestic steel prices [2] - The adjustment of steel prices by major steel enterprises for November is primarily to address the high production levels and increasing inventory, with a focus on the specialty steel market moving forward [2]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of rebar and hot-rolled coil, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength analysis [2][3]. Market Conditions - **Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil**: The market is characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment and wide fluctuations [2][3]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,047 yuan/ton and 3,219 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -11 yuan/ton (-0.36%) and -10 yuan/ton (-0.31%) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of RB2601 was 894,573 lots, and the open interest was 1,995,833 lots, a decrease of 10,093 lots. The trading volume of HC2601 was 441,068 lots, and the open interest was 1,509,998 lots, an increase of 6,767 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities remained unchanged [3]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Crude Steel Production**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [4]. - **Weekly Data**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 16, the production of rebar decreased by 224,000 tons, and the production of hot-rolled coil decreased by 145,000 tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 1.859 million tons, and the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 629,000 tons. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.374 million tons, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil increased by 2.458 million tons [4][5]. - **Production of Key Steel Enterprises**: In early October 2025, the average daily production of crude steel by key steel enterprises increased by 7.5% month-on-month, the average daily production of pig iron increased by 3.2% month-on-month, and the average daily production of steel decreased by 8.5% month-on-month [5]. - **Steel Inventory of Key Enterprises**: In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with the previous ten days [5]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 10.4% [5]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - In the future month, steel supply pressure remains high, demand growth is limited, and changes in inventory data should be closely monitored. Policy-wise, the Fourth Plenary Session in October may lead to policy support. Fundamentally, the weak demand during the peak season persists, and the weak reality is hard to change. Supply shows a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. If inventory pressure continues to rise, a new round of production cuts may occur. Overall, steel supply outstrips demand, policy support is limited, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Short-term attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff policy interference [3][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, steel futures fluctuated repeatedly and gradually weakened with a lower center of gravity, mainly influenced by the game between expectations and reality. In the first ten days, rebar was weak while hot-rolled coils were strong. Rebar futures fell below 3,100 yuan/ton, and hot-rolled coils rose from 3,282 yuan/ton to over 3,350 yuan/ton. The demand improvement for rebar during the peak season was limited, while the military parade production restrictions led to reduced production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, causing the supply of hot-rolled coils to shrink and the spread between coils and rebar to widen. In the middle ten days, steel prices rebounded due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment driving up raw material prices and strengthening cost support. In the last ten days, market sentiment weakened. On one hand, supply recovered and inventory pressure emerged; on the other hand, building materials were dragged down by the sluggish real estate market, with weak demand during the peak season. Moreover, after the inventory replenishment cycle ended, raw material prices declined and were transmitted to the finished product end, leading to an adjustment in steel prices. Overall, in September, the demand drive in the steel market was limited, and futures prices fluctuated with supply-side disturbances. In October, the pattern of weak reality and strong expectations remained unchanged, but market expectations shifted from the demand side to macro policies [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply Pressure Persists - In September, steel supply showed a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. Long-process steel mills were in good profit conditions, with strong willingness to start blast furnaces, and molten iron production remained at a high level. At the beginning of October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 56.71%, a 19-percentage-point increase compared to the same period last year, and the daily average molten iron production of steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. At the electric furnace end, due to the rising price of scrap steel, the utilization rate of short-process production capacity decreased month-on-month, and the daily consumption of scrap steel dropped to 534,000 tons, increasing the production cut pressure. Statistical data showed that from January to August, the crude steel production decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the pig iron production decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The monthly crude steel production continued to decline while the pig iron production turned positive, reflecting a shift in iron element demand towards iron ore. The supply structure was significantly differentiated. Long-process steel mills maintained production by converting to billet production, and the supply contradiction of flat products began to emerge, with the inventory of hot-rolled coils increasing significantly year-on-year. For rebar, due to the production cuts at electric furnaces, the supply-demand contradiction was slightly alleviated. Overall, in October, the supply side featured rigid production in blast furnaces and elastic adjustment in electric furnaces. If the seasonal recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, a new round of production cuts may occur [14]. 2.2 High Steel Inventory Pressure - In September, steel inventory rebounded significantly, and industrial contradictions accumulated faster. As of October 8, the total inventory of the five major steel products reached 16.01 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the beginning of the previous month. Among them, the inventory of rebar and wire rod increased by 430,000 tons, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased by 380,000 tons. The inventory increase was mainly concentrated in the social inventory link. The social inventory of rebar increased by 50% year-on-year, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils reached a historical high, indicating weak terminal demand. The inventory in steel mills was at a low level, and the pressure was relatively controllable. Although the marginal improvement in demand during the peak season may drive inventory reduction, given the high supply from steel mills and the lack of substantial improvement in terminal demand, the inventory reduction intensity may be limited [22]. 2.3 Weak Demand During Peak Season - In September, steel demand was weak during the peak season. Affected by the real estate market, the demand for building materials was weak. In August, the land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 50.82 million square meters, a 14% year-on-year decrease, and the commercial housing sales decreased by 11% year-on-year, with the decline in new construction expanding to 19.8%. A survey by Baonian Construction showed that at the end of September, the fund availability rate of construction sites was only 59.54%, and the capital sources of real estate enterprises continued to decline. Currently, the real estate industry is still in a difficult bottoming-out stage. The manufacturing industry maintained resilience, with good growth in automobile and home appliance production, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased slightly year-on-year. In October, as the weather cools down, the construction site start-up rate is expected to increase, but the seasonal improvement space for steel demand is limited. Weak real estate sales restrict front-end investment. The manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the incremental space for automobile and home appliance demand is limited. Overall, it is difficult for steel demand to have unexpected growth [25]. 2.4 Attention to Policy Expectations from Conferences - In September, the Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee was held to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd. On September 5th, Shenzhen issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures." This new real estate policy in Shenzhen mainly made adjustments in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home purchases, and optimizing credit. The real estate policies in first-tier cities continued to be relaxed. On October 9th, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on implementing export control measures for five items including superhard materials, rare earth equipment and raw materials, holmium, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials, which will be officially implemented on November 8th. Trump publicly threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US. The real estate industry has been in a continuous downturn, and the data in August did not improve. From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 6.0309 trillion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a 9.3% year-on-year decrease. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a 19.5% decrease. Although first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have successively introduced new real estate policies, the policy effects have been limited, and the market is still in the stage of "stopping the decline and stabilizing." The real estate sector has significantly dragged down the demand for construction steel, and it is expected that it will not contribute incremental demand in the short term. The growth rate of infrastructure construction continued to slow down. From January to August, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. Major projects in Xinjiang, Tibet, and other places started, with a relatively high investment boom, but the overall driving effect on steel demand was limited. In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, a 0.4-percentage-point increase from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level continued to improve, but it was in the contraction range for six consecutive months, with limited marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry and pressure on downstream demand. From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. The export of complete automobiles was 4.292 million units, a 13.7% year-on-year increase. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, an 87.3% year-on-year increase. The export of new energy vehicles became the driving force for the growth of automobile exports. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator production was 70.19 million units, a 1.9% year-on-year increase; the cumulative air conditioner production was 199.65 million units, a 5.8% year-on-year increase; and the washing machine production was 78.26 million units, a 7.8% year-on-year increase. The home appliance production schedule data in October was average, and the overall production of white goods decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, with the largest decline in the production schedule of household air conditioners, a 18% year-on-year decrease. This year, steel exports have remained resilient, but there is high uncertainty in overseas policies. From January to August, China's cumulative steel imports were 1.98 million tons, a 14.1% year-on-year decrease, and the cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year-on-year increase. The export of hot-rolled coils was 14.54 million tons, a 19% year-on-year decrease, affected by anti-dumping measures from South Korea and Vietnam (this year, the export of steel to Vietnam decreased by 21% year-on-year, and to South Korea by 11%); the export of steel bars was 2.6 million tons, a 71% year-on-year increase, continuing the upward trend but with a small proportion [29][30][46][47]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In September, steel supply showed a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. Long-process steel mills were in good profit conditions, with strong willingness to start blast furnaces, and molten iron production remained at a high level, with the daily average molten iron production of steel mills above 2.4 million tons. At the electric furnace end, due to the rising price of scrap steel, the utilization rate of short-process production capacity decreased month-on-month, and the daily consumption of scrap steel dropped to 534,000 tons, increasing the production cut pressure. The supply structure was significantly differentiated. Long-process steel mills maintained production by converting to billet production, and the supply contradiction of flat products began to emerge, with the inventory of hot-rolled coils increasing significantly year-on-year. For rebar, due to the production cuts at electric furnaces, the supply-demand contradiction was slightly alleviated. Overall, in October, the supply side featured rigid production in blast furnaces and elastic adjustment in electric furnaces. If the seasonal recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, a new round of production cuts may occur. - Demand side: Steel demand was weak during the peak season. Affected by the real estate market, the demand for building materials was weak. A survey by Baonian Construction showed that at the end of September, the fund availability rate of construction sites was only 59.54%, and the capital sources of real estate enterprises continued to decline. The real estate industry is still in a difficult bottoming-out stage. The manufacturing industry maintained resilience, with good growth in automobile and home appliance production, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased slightly year-on-year. In October, as the weather cools down, the construction site start-up rate is expected to increase, but the seasonal improvement space for steel demand is limited. It is difficult for steel demand to have unexpected growth. In the future month, steel supply pressure remains high, demand growth is limited, and changes in inventory data should be closely monitored. Policy-wise, the Fourth Plenary Session in October may lead to policy support. Fundamentally, the weak demand during the peak season persists, and the weak reality is hard to change. Supply shows a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. If inventory pressure continues to rise, a new round of production cuts may occur. Overall, steel supply outstrips demand, policy support is limited, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Short-term attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff policy interference [49][50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel prices are oscillating with differentiation among varieties. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, while the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production are on the rise. The production of rebar has decreased but remains at a high level, with demand continuing to fall and the peak - season expectations unfulfilled. The terminal demand is still weak, and the rebar inventory has increased, adding to the inventory pressure. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both increased, with production reaching a new high for the year, a significant increase in demand, and a slight reduction in inventory. Steel exports have decreased month - on - month but still show resilience. The market sentiment was boosted by macro factors on Friday, and the cost side still provides support. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, and attention should be paid to the changes in peak - season demand. In the short term, the steel market will operate in an oscillatory manner [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production - Molten iron production reached 2405500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 117100 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39%. The electric furnace operating rate was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [5]. - As of September 12, the production of rebar decreased by 67500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, the long - process production decreased by 31100 tons week - on - week, and the short - process production decreased by 36400 tons week - on - week. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 109000 tons week - on - week [35]. 3.2 Demand - Recently, high - frequency data showed that the apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coils increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1980700 tons (- 40000), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3261600 tons (+ 208000) [5]. - As of September 12, the weekly average of building material trading volume was 103000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6128.8 tons, with a slight increase in trading. The weekly average of hot - rolled coil trading volume was 34700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1043 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 846000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12400 tons [44][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory was 6538600 tons (+ 138600), the social inventory was 4872300 tons (+ 185700), and the steel mill inventory was 1666300 tons (- 47100). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3733200 tons (- 10200), the social inventory was 2924400 tons (- 19200), and the steel mill inventory was 808800 tons (+ 9000) [5]. - As of September 12, the billet inventory in Tangshan was 611000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14200 tons. The inventory of major steel products was 10953200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 179600 tons [53]. 3.4 Basis As of September 12, the basis of the rebar main contract was 93 yuan/ton (- 4), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 36 yuan/ton (- 4) [12]. 3.5 Raw Materials The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1401 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [15]. 3.6 Other Related Data - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330000 tons; from January to August, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [65]. - According to Steel Union data, automobile production in August was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 223900 vehicles. New energy vehicle production in July was 1.243 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 25000 vehicles [69]. - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.9%. Specifically, from January to August, the new construction area of houses was 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%, with a decline rate of 0.1%. The completed area of houses was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%, with a decline rate of 0.5%. From January to August, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, with a decline rate of 0.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.8%. From January to August, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises were 6.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, with a decline rate of 0.5% [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with rebar futures experiencing a slight upward trend, closing at 3271.00 yuan, up 0.18% [1] - As of September 3, the social inventory of construction steel in Guiyang increased to 62,950 tons, up by 55 tons from September 2 [2] - On September 2, the average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton day-on-day, with an average profit loss of 133 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - National construction material transaction volume reached 99,000 tons on September 2, an increase of 10.86% compared to the previous trading day [3] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures research, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with iron water slowly declining from high levels, indicating increasing pressure on the supply side of steel [4] - Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and while steel exports face challenges from tariffs and anti-dumping measures, billet exports remain strong, suggesting that the overall supply-demand balance in the steel market is not significantly strained [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel market is experiencing a fluctuating adjustment in mainstream product prices due to ongoing supply-demand contradictions, traditional off-season demand weakness, and changes in raw material costs [1][4]. Price Overview - Rebar (HRB400E 18-25mm) is quoted at 3170-3330 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton from the previous day, with limited high-price transactions [4]. - Medium and heavy plates (Q235B) are priced at 3870 CNY/ton for 8mm and 3500 CNY/ton for 20mm, facing downward pressure due to reduced manufacturing orders [4]. - Hot-rolled coils (Q235B/SS400) are quoted at 3420 CNY/ton for 3.0mm and 3360 CNY/ton for 4.75mm, with low demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - Wire rod (HPB300 8-10mm) is priced at 3390-3490 CNY/ton, with general market transactions [5]. - Hot-rolled strip steel (Q235B 3.5mm*685) remains stable at 3440 CNY/ton, with a lack of strong price support from traders [6]. Market Dynamics Analysis - Demand Side: The off-season effect continues, with insufficient release of demand [6]. - Construction industry: Slow funding for infrastructure projects and limited real estate construction intensity lead to low new project initiation rates [7]. - Manufacturing: Weak demand for plate products, particularly medium and heavy plates, due to reduced downstream orders [8]. - Supply Side: High production and inventory pressures coexist [9]. - Local steel mills maintain high production levels, while external resources increase competition, leading to inventory pressure [9]. - Rumors of environmental production restrictions have not materialized, creating a contradiction between steel mills' pricing intentions and actual market transactions [10]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices support the bottom of steel prices [11]. - Iron ore and coke prices remain high, with steel billet costs rising to 3080 CNY/ton, compressing profit margins for steel mills [11]. - Macroeconomic and Futures Market: Policy expectations and financial attributes significantly influence the market [12]. - In July, special bond issuance exceeded 600 billion CNY, improving infrastructure investment expectations in Chengdu, but market sentiment remains cautious regarding policy implementation [12]. - Fluctuations in the futures market dominate spot market sentiment, with weak futures prices suppressing market confidence [12]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the Chengdu steel market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly [13]. - Demand Side: Insufficient enthusiasm for terminal procurement and ongoing off-season effects hinder significant improvements in transactions [13]. - Supply Side: High production levels and inventory pressures create significant resistance to price increases [14]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices provide support, but compressed profits may inhibit capacity release [15]. - In the long term, as infrastructure projects gradually materialize and environmental production restrictions are implemented, combined with the release of demand during the autumn construction peak, the market may see a recovery [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - temperature weather persists, terminal demand remains weak, speculative demand weakens, and futures price fluctuations are limited. In the short - term, the steel market is dominated by macro logic, and prices are mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures turned down overall. The rebar closed at 3222 yuan/ton, down 0.92%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, down 0.66%; the iron ore closed at 795 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke fell, with the coking coal dropping by 3% [1] Market Analysis - According to the August 9th Mysteel research data, some independent section steel rolling enterprises have received production suspension and restriction notices. From August 16th to 25th, Tangshan independent rolling enterprises may stop production at any time; from August 20th to September 5th, key areas in Tangshan will implement graded control, and sintering machines, blast furnaces, and rolling lines will be restricted as required. From August 25th to September 3rd, production must stop. If the measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 section steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons. Currently, the inventory in section steel rolling mills is okay, and the short - term supply is not greatly affected. The market sentiment is okay, and transactions are gradually improving [1] - In terms of supply, last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 68.4%, a 10 - month high. The blast furnace operating rate slightly increased to 83.75%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.09%. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4032 million tons, but the year - on - year increase was 3.72%. Some electric arc furnace steel mills in certain regions are in full - scale losses, and some have reduced production. However, some regions with high profits still have steel mills resuming production, leading to an increase in the operating rate to a two - month high, but a slight decrease in capacity utilization. Steel mills face the situation of steel inventory accumulation and increased scrap steel recycling costs. It is expected that the profits of electric arc furnace steel mills will continue to decline, and there may be further production cuts [1] Brief Evaluation - The decline in real estate market investment and construction remains the main factor restricting the terminal demand for construction steel. Coupled with the continuous high - temperature weather, the terminal demand in the off - season is weak, and there is no obvious improvement in the short - term demand side. Last week, the inventory of five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 13.7536 million tons, a more than two - month high. Among them, the social inventory increased by 201,300 tons month - on - month. The inventory and output of rebar both increased, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month - on - month; the output of hot - rolled coils decreased, the inventory increased month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 4.31%, reaching a six - month low [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take an oscillating approach in the short - term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short - term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, but steel prices still have upward drivers. The overall inventory accumulation pressure of steel is not large. Considering the expected production cuts in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces before the September military parade and the potential for terminal demand to form restocking support during the off - peak to peak season transition, steel prices are expected to have limited short - term decline space and medium - term upward drivers [3]. - The iron ore market has limited short - term supply pressure, and the inventory has no obvious accumulation pressure. It follows the changes in macro - policy expectations and market sentiment. With the transition from the off - season to the peak season, terminal demand remains resilient, and there are still opportunities for medium - term low - buying [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is firm. Coking coal mines in some areas have production cuts, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profitability has improved, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. With high iron - water production supporting raw materials, there is still upward space [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The coking coal and coke market is firm, and steel prices are oscillating. Last week, there were many disturbances in coking coal supply news. Supported by high iron - water production, the coking coal and coke market was strong, forming cost support. The industrial structure continued to have slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, exports remained resilient, and the market sentiment was optimistic, with prices showing slight oscillating adjustments [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National weekly production of rebar was 221.18 million tons (up 4.79% week - on - week and 31.23% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coils was 314.89 million tons (down 2.45% week - on - week and up 3.73% year - on - year). Both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar production increased [13][16][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast - furnace operating rate was 83.75% (up 0.35% week - on - week and 3.04% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate was 74.9% (up 0.93% week - on - week and 36.98% year - on - year) [24][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 177 yuan/ton (up 22.03% week - on - week and 289 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 188 yuan/ton (down 10.05% week - on - week and up 303 yuan/ton year - on - year) [29][32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 210.79 million tons (up 3.63% week - on - week and 7.57% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 306.21 million tons (down 4.31% week - on - week and up 2.58% year - on - year) [33][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 556.68 million tons (up 1.90% week - on - week and down 22.70% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 356.63 million tons (up 2.49% week - on - week and down 18.46% year - on - year) [38][41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real - estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week and decreased by 15.43% year - on - year. The transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.91% week - on - week and 13.12% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month growth of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year growth of 11.4% and 13.8% [47][50][53]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 24.639 million tons (down 7.99% week - on - week and 2.84% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 25.078 million tons (up 11.93% week - on - week and down 3.94% year - on - year) [56][61]. - **Demand**: Daily iron - water production was 2.4032 million tons (down 0.39 million tons week - on - week and up 0.862 million tons year - on - year), and the ore - handling volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 3.2185 million tons (up 6.32% week - on - week and 1.58% year - on - year) [62][66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron - ore ports was 137.1227 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 8.80% year - on - year), and the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1334 million tons (up 0.01% week - on - week and down 0.36% year - on - year) [67][72]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.89% (down 2.80% week - on - week and 6.58% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 36.22% (up 3.40% week - on - week and down 17.36% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 142,300 tons (up 23.56% week - on - week and 1.05% year - on - year) [74][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 16 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.03% (up 0.46% week - on - week and 0.42% year - on - year) [82][86]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.3304 million tons (down 1.31% week - on - week and up 18.21% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 8.0848 million tons (up 0.61% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.7734 million tons (down 1.69% week - on - week and 11.24% year - on - year) [87][92]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 446,300 tons (down 4.06% week - on - week and up 1.39% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 6.1928 million tons (down 1.18% week - on - week and up 15.49% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1815 million tons (up 1.42% week - on - week and 15.29% year - on - year) [93][98]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,230 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 520 yuan/ton year - on - year) [99][104]. 5. Spread Analysis - The rebar basis is shrinking, and the spread between the rebar 10 - 1 contracts is narrowing. The iron ore 9 - 1 spread is narrowing, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar first widened and then narrowed [106][112].