Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, with a mixed outlook due to varying demand and supply factors, including a notable increase in housing project funding and ongoing pressures from rising crude steel production [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 26, the domestic steel market saw a slight decline, with major futures contracts primarily trending downwards, including rebar down 0.06% and hot-rolled coil down 0.03% [1][4]. - The average price of rebar (HRB400 25MM) is reported at 3269 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 12 yuan [5]. - The futures market closed with most major contracts showing declines, particularly rebar and hot-rolled coil, while iron ore saw a minor increase of 0.19% [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises produced 1,943 million tons of crude steel in mid-November, with a daily production rate of 194.3 thousand tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase month-on-month [2]. - The inventory of steel materials reached 1,561 million tons, up 0.8% from the previous period, indicating increasing supply pressure that may negatively impact steel prices [2]. - The funding rate for housing projects has increased by 0.7% to 53.99%, reaching a recent high, while overall funding rates for construction sites have decreased by 0.24 percentage points to 59.56% [3]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore has seen a slight increase, with supply from Australia and Brazil decreasing, but domestic arrivals rising significantly [9]. - Coke prices are stable, with supply gradually increasing due to higher operating rates in coke enterprises, although downstream purchasing enthusiasm is declining [9]. - Scrap steel prices remain stable with minor fluctuations, as supply tightens and demand shows divergence, particularly with electric arc furnace steel mills facing losses [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of steel prices stabilizing or slightly declining in the near term due to weak seasonal demand and mixed performance in raw materials [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, due to a significant decline in steel mill gross margins and the end of the consumption peak, the scale of steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal level, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback loop. Recently, the prices of coal and coke have shown signs of weakening, and the price of iron ore has fallen from its high, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average, and are facing a direction choice after a short - term narrow - range oscillation [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the molten iron production will likely continue to decline along the seasonal trend, and the steel mill's production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. On the supply side, the global shipments have declined from their highs, and the port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow destocking of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but remained significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The national building steel output was 200.00 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons (-4.10%); the hot - rolled coil output was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons (-1.41%) [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.23%) from the previous day and 19 yuan (0.63%) from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 11 yuan (0.34%) from the previous week [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips. It is a medium - term trading strategy. Do not short when the price is low [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The molten iron production of sample steel mills increased month - on - month last week, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is expected to decline seasonally. The global shipments have decreased from their highs, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decline later. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel dampens the market sentiment [3]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, up 12.0 yuan (1.58%) from the previous week. The SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.59 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.93 US dollars (-0.90%) from the previous week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [3]. 3.3 Industry News - As of November 14, according to Zhonglian Steel's research, the change in the national blast furnace start - up rate was small. The national blast furnace number start - up rate was 74.21%, flat compared with the previous week and up 0.33% year - on - year; the blast furnace volume start - up rate was 78.36%, down 0.18% compared with the previous week and up 1.21% year - on - year [6]. - As of November 14, according to Zhonglian Steel's research, the start - up rate of electric furnaces in the country increased. The national electric furnace number start - up rate rose 1.28 percentage points to 60.90% compared with last Friday, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate rose 0.61 percentage points to 52.55% [6]. - On November 14, Hebei market steel mills raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton [6]. - On November 14, Mongolia ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 94.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period on October 31 [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 15129.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230.88 million tons [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 9076.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.07 million tons [7]. - According to Steelhome data, the total urban inventory this week was 910.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.25 million tons (-2.49%) [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of steel products is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The price of rebar at the 3000 level is still quite resilient, and short - term operations are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher on Friday and continued to rise in the night session [1] 3.2. Important Information - The central bank's Tao Ling stated that it is necessary to restrain the "involution - style competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics said it is necessary to continue to expand domestic demand and optimize the market competition environment to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [1] - In October, China's automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [1] - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [1] - In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; steel production was 118.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, China's crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%; pig iron production was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; steel production was 1.21759 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched, targeting Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and several central enterprises, with an on - site inspection period of one month [1] - Many places in Henan and Hebei have lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [1] 3.3. Market Logic - The real estate investment growth rate continued to decline in the first 10 months, and the steel - using indicators in the real estate sector deteriorated. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was - 0.1%, the first time it has been negative since 2021. The manufacturing investment growth rate dropped to 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. The domestic demand for steel is weak [1] - In the first 10 months, the year - on - year growth rate of crude steel production continued to decline, and the production of crude steel continued to be regulated. Last week, the supply of rebar continued to decline, and the inventory continued to be depleted. The supply of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production and inventory of the five major steel products both decreased, and it is the off - season for steel demand [1] - Recently, more building material steel mills have resumed production, and the supply is expected to increase in the short - term. The environmental protection inspection team's entry into Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei may support the price. Steel mills have poor profitability, and the cost side provides strong support [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment that the price will fluctuate in the short - term. The rebar price at the 3000 level has strong resilience, and short - term operations are recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total output of five major steel products declined this week, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. The overall steel inventory continued to decrease, but hot-rolled coils showed a slight accumulation. The supply-demand structure constrained the performance of steel prices. It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound trading approach for single positions, continue to hold long positions on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the weekly output of small-sample rebar was 200 million tons (-8.54), and that of small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.66 million tons (-4.50). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). Although the profit of electric arc furnaces improved slightly with the decline in scrap steel prices, it remained in a loss, leading to a slight increase in production. The profit of long-process steel also remained in a loss but improved slightly, and hot metal production increased this week [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small-sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (-2.15), and that for small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (-0.71). Steel demand continued to decline recently, with difficulties in project payment collection for downstream construction sites and a decrease in the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter, indicating significant demand pressure. From January to October, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment declined month-on-month, with insufficient incremental investment in domestic projects. In October, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, with the decline in new construction and completion falling to around -30%, indicating weak data and insufficient willingness among residents to purchase houses, and the real estate market continued to decline. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, showing a decline in the manufacturing PMI, with significant weakening in new orders and export data. In October, China's automobile production increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and exports increased by 41.6% year-on-year, maintaining strong positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand. In November, the production schedule of the three major white goods decreased by 21.2% year-on-year, showing a further decline. In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. - **Inventory**: In terms of rebar inventory, the mill inventory decreased by 64,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 163,700 tons. For hot-rolled coils, the mill inventory increased by 900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, resulting in a total inventory increase of 700 tons. The mill inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 126,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 136,100 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 262,200 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (unchanged), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan (unchanged), and that of Hebei Steel's hot-rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was -240.38 yuan (+34), and the off - peak electricity profit was -75 yuan (+34) [28]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: In the first ten months, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In October, the newly added social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a significant decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The newly added RMB loans were 22 billion yuan. Residential loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, and corporate loans were 35 trillion yuan. Currently in the off - season of investment, credit demand is weakening, residential demand is cooling, the real estate market is further cooling, and the contribution of fiscal policy to social financing is weakening. However, it may improve at the end of this year and next year due to the impact of policy - based financial instruments. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed asset investment was -1.70%, a further rapid decline. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -14.7%, that of manufacturing investment was +2.7%, and that of infrastructure investment was +1.51%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was -0.1%. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to contract significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, affecting infrastructure investment to some extent. The repayment situation of downstream projects is poor, corporate loans are low, and the investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry continues to contract due to insufficient industrial prosperity [30][35]. - **Foreign Macroeconomy**: In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). The weekly output of small - sample rebar was 208.54 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons month - on - month. The weekly output of small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons month - on - month [53][58]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (a 7.6% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 2.15 million tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (a 1.67% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 0.71 million tons month - on - month. The demand for building materials and the production schedule of white goods declined, while the production and export of automobiles maintained strong growth [61]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar decreased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The overall inventory of the five major steel products decreased [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, steel prices were slightly repaired at a low level boosted by the warming of macro - expectations. However, industrial contradictions have not been completely eliminated. Although the structural contradictions have slightly improved, the supply - demand gap in the steel sector remains at a relatively high level. The total inventory shows a seasonal decline. At the end of the month, under the background of production restrictions in Hebei, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, weakening the driving force for price rebound. From a valuation perspective, the upside space of rebar is under pressure near the off - peak electricity cost. In November, the driving force is limited, and it is expected that the volatile pattern will be difficult to change. [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Price and Production Data**: In October, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of the end of October, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3200 yuan, unchanged from the end of September; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan, up 20 yuan/ton from the end of September. On October 30, the total output of the five major steel products increased by 9.97 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 18.49 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 22.62 tons. The apparent demand was 916.4 tons, an increase of 23.69 tons month - on - month. [5] - **Profit Data**: As of October 31, in the long - process spot end, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3196.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 3.5 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 33.5 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace end, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China was about 3331 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3189 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 171 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 29 yuan. [5] - **Scrap Steel Data**: As of October 30, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 33.6%, up 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51.2 tons, down 0.15 tons month - on - month. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 25 tons/day, up 0.04 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16.7 tons, up 0.18 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.1%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 47.3 tons, down 1.26 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 2.6%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 469.7 tons, down 3.7 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.8%. [6] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - **Steel Production**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [14] - **PMI Index**: In October 2025, the PMI was 49%. Compared with September 2025, multiple sub - indicators showed declines, such as the production index decreased by 2.2, the new order index decreased by 0.9, etc. [19] - **Investment Data**: From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 21.28% year - on - year. [23] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed floor area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. [26] 3.3 Product - Specific Data - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 212.59 tons (+5.52 tons), including 183.08 tons of long - process output (+3.94 tons) and 29.51 tons of short - process output (+1.58 tons). The factory inventory was 171.71 tons (-12.92 tons), the social inventory was 430.81 tons (-6.67 tons), and the total inventory was 602.52 tons (-19.59 tons). [55][72] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 323.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 tons; the apparent demand was 331.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.31 tons, the social inventory decreased by 8.64 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 8.33 tons. [75] - **Export**: As of October 24, the FOB export price in China was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 32.3 US dollars (-4.8 US dollars). The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 342.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109.98 tons, a growth rate of 37.5%. [86]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the majority of steel products' prices remain stable compared to October, with some varieties experiencing price increases due to high steel production and inventory levels, leading to a relaxed supply-demand situation that hinders sustained price recovery [1][2] - The prices of various steel products such as thick plates, hot-rolled coils, and cold-rolled products remain unchanged from October, while hot-dip galvanized and electro-galvanized steel prices have increased by 100 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic consumption is currently stable, with potential for increased orders in seasonal consumption sectors, although demand for construction steel is constrained by financial and emotional factors [1][2] Group 2 - Steel production remains at a certain scale, with stable orders for specialty steel, but the overall price recovery of steel is limited due to pressure from common materials [2] - Overseas retail and manufacturing consumption is holding up, with liquidity from interest rate cuts promoting investment and consumption, providing a supportive backdrop for domestic steel prices [2] - The adjustment of steel prices by major steel enterprises for November is primarily to address the high production levels and increasing inventory, with a focus on the specialty steel market moving forward [2]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of rebar and hot-rolled coil, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength analysis [2][3]. Market Conditions - **Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil**: The market is characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment and wide fluctuations [2][3]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,047 yuan/ton and 3,219 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -11 yuan/ton (-0.36%) and -10 yuan/ton (-0.31%) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of RB2601 was 894,573 lots, and the open interest was 1,995,833 lots, a decrease of 10,093 lots. The trading volume of HC2601 was 441,068 lots, and the open interest was 1,509,998 lots, an increase of 6,767 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities remained unchanged [3]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Crude Steel Production**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [4]. - **Weekly Data**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 16, the production of rebar decreased by 224,000 tons, and the production of hot-rolled coil decreased by 145,000 tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 1.859 million tons, and the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 629,000 tons. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.374 million tons, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil increased by 2.458 million tons [4][5]. - **Production of Key Steel Enterprises**: In early October 2025, the average daily production of crude steel by key steel enterprises increased by 7.5% month-on-month, the average daily production of pig iron increased by 3.2% month-on-month, and the average daily production of steel decreased by 8.5% month-on-month [5]. - **Steel Inventory of Key Enterprises**: In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with the previous ten days [5]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 10.4% [5]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - In the future month, steel supply pressure remains high, demand growth is limited, and changes in inventory data should be closely monitored. Policy-wise, the Fourth Plenary Session in October may lead to policy support. Fundamentally, the weak demand during the peak season persists, and the weak reality is hard to change. Supply shows a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. If inventory pressure continues to rise, a new round of production cuts may occur. Overall, steel supply outstrips demand, policy support is limited, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Short-term attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff policy interference [3][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, steel futures fluctuated repeatedly and gradually weakened with a lower center of gravity, mainly influenced by the game between expectations and reality. In the first ten days, rebar was weak while hot-rolled coils were strong. Rebar futures fell below 3,100 yuan/ton, and hot-rolled coils rose from 3,282 yuan/ton to over 3,350 yuan/ton. The demand improvement for rebar during the peak season was limited, while the military parade production restrictions led to reduced production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, causing the supply of hot-rolled coils to shrink and the spread between coils and rebar to widen. In the middle ten days, steel prices rebounded due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment driving up raw material prices and strengthening cost support. In the last ten days, market sentiment weakened. On one hand, supply recovered and inventory pressure emerged; on the other hand, building materials were dragged down by the sluggish real estate market, with weak demand during the peak season. Moreover, after the inventory replenishment cycle ended, raw material prices declined and were transmitted to the finished product end, leading to an adjustment in steel prices. Overall, in September, the demand drive in the steel market was limited, and futures prices fluctuated with supply-side disturbances. In October, the pattern of weak reality and strong expectations remained unchanged, but market expectations shifted from the demand side to macro policies [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply Pressure Persists - In September, steel supply showed a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. Long-process steel mills were in good profit conditions, with strong willingness to start blast furnaces, and molten iron production remained at a high level. At the beginning of October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 56.71%, a 19-percentage-point increase compared to the same period last year, and the daily average molten iron production of steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. At the electric furnace end, due to the rising price of scrap steel, the utilization rate of short-process production capacity decreased month-on-month, and the daily consumption of scrap steel dropped to 534,000 tons, increasing the production cut pressure. Statistical data showed that from January to August, the crude steel production decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the pig iron production decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The monthly crude steel production continued to decline while the pig iron production turned positive, reflecting a shift in iron element demand towards iron ore. The supply structure was significantly differentiated. Long-process steel mills maintained production by converting to billet production, and the supply contradiction of flat products began to emerge, with the inventory of hot-rolled coils increasing significantly year-on-year. For rebar, due to the production cuts at electric furnaces, the supply-demand contradiction was slightly alleviated. Overall, in October, the supply side featured rigid production in blast furnaces and elastic adjustment in electric furnaces. If the seasonal recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, a new round of production cuts may occur [14]. 2.2 High Steel Inventory Pressure - In September, steel inventory rebounded significantly, and industrial contradictions accumulated faster. As of October 8, the total inventory of the five major steel products reached 16.01 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the beginning of the previous month. Among them, the inventory of rebar and wire rod increased by 430,000 tons, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased by 380,000 tons. The inventory increase was mainly concentrated in the social inventory link. The social inventory of rebar increased by 50% year-on-year, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils reached a historical high, indicating weak terminal demand. The inventory in steel mills was at a low level, and the pressure was relatively controllable. Although the marginal improvement in demand during the peak season may drive inventory reduction, given the high supply from steel mills and the lack of substantial improvement in terminal demand, the inventory reduction intensity may be limited [22]. 2.3 Weak Demand During Peak Season - In September, steel demand was weak during the peak season. Affected by the real estate market, the demand for building materials was weak. In August, the land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 50.82 million square meters, a 14% year-on-year decrease, and the commercial housing sales decreased by 11% year-on-year, with the decline in new construction expanding to 19.8%. A survey by Baonian Construction showed that at the end of September, the fund availability rate of construction sites was only 59.54%, and the capital sources of real estate enterprises continued to decline. Currently, the real estate industry is still in a difficult bottoming-out stage. The manufacturing industry maintained resilience, with good growth in automobile and home appliance production, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased slightly year-on-year. In October, as the weather cools down, the construction site start-up rate is expected to increase, but the seasonal improvement space for steel demand is limited. Weak real estate sales restrict front-end investment. The manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the incremental space for automobile and home appliance demand is limited. Overall, it is difficult for steel demand to have unexpected growth [25]. 2.4 Attention to Policy Expectations from Conferences - In September, the Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee was held to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd. On September 5th, Shenzhen issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures." This new real estate policy in Shenzhen mainly made adjustments in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home purchases, and optimizing credit. The real estate policies in first-tier cities continued to be relaxed. On October 9th, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on implementing export control measures for five items including superhard materials, rare earth equipment and raw materials, holmium, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials, which will be officially implemented on November 8th. Trump publicly threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US. The real estate industry has been in a continuous downturn, and the data in August did not improve. From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 6.0309 trillion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a 9.3% year-on-year decrease. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a 19.5% decrease. Although first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have successively introduced new real estate policies, the policy effects have been limited, and the market is still in the stage of "stopping the decline and stabilizing." The real estate sector has significantly dragged down the demand for construction steel, and it is expected that it will not contribute incremental demand in the short term. The growth rate of infrastructure construction continued to slow down. From January to August, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. Major projects in Xinjiang, Tibet, and other places started, with a relatively high investment boom, but the overall driving effect on steel demand was limited. In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, a 0.4-percentage-point increase from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level continued to improve, but it was in the contraction range for six consecutive months, with limited marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry and pressure on downstream demand. From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. The export of complete automobiles was 4.292 million units, a 13.7% year-on-year increase. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, an 87.3% year-on-year increase. The export of new energy vehicles became the driving force for the growth of automobile exports. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator production was 70.19 million units, a 1.9% year-on-year increase; the cumulative air conditioner production was 199.65 million units, a 5.8% year-on-year increase; and the washing machine production was 78.26 million units, a 7.8% year-on-year increase. The home appliance production schedule data in October was average, and the overall production of white goods decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, with the largest decline in the production schedule of household air conditioners, a 18% year-on-year decrease. This year, steel exports have remained resilient, but there is high uncertainty in overseas policies. From January to August, China's cumulative steel imports were 1.98 million tons, a 14.1% year-on-year decrease, and the cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year-on-year increase. The export of hot-rolled coils was 14.54 million tons, a 19% year-on-year decrease, affected by anti-dumping measures from South Korea and Vietnam (this year, the export of steel to Vietnam decreased by 21% year-on-year, and to South Korea by 11%); the export of steel bars was 2.6 million tons, a 71% year-on-year increase, continuing the upward trend but with a small proportion [29][30][46][47]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In September, steel supply showed a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. Long-process steel mills were in good profit conditions, with strong willingness to start blast furnaces, and molten iron production remained at a high level, with the daily average molten iron production of steel mills above 2.4 million tons. At the electric furnace end, due to the rising price of scrap steel, the utilization rate of short-process production capacity decreased month-on-month, and the daily consumption of scrap steel dropped to 534,000 tons, increasing the production cut pressure. The supply structure was significantly differentiated. Long-process steel mills maintained production by converting to billet production, and the supply contradiction of flat products began to emerge, with the inventory of hot-rolled coils increasing significantly year-on-year. For rebar, due to the production cuts at electric furnaces, the supply-demand contradiction was slightly alleviated. Overall, in October, the supply side featured rigid production in blast furnaces and elastic adjustment in electric furnaces. If the seasonal recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, a new round of production cuts may occur. - Demand side: Steel demand was weak during the peak season. Affected by the real estate market, the demand for building materials was weak. A survey by Baonian Construction showed that at the end of September, the fund availability rate of construction sites was only 59.54%, and the capital sources of real estate enterprises continued to decline. The real estate industry is still in a difficult bottoming-out stage. The manufacturing industry maintained resilience, with good growth in automobile and home appliance production, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased slightly year-on-year. In October, as the weather cools down, the construction site start-up rate is expected to increase, but the seasonal improvement space for steel demand is limited. It is difficult for steel demand to have unexpected growth. In the future month, steel supply pressure remains high, demand growth is limited, and changes in inventory data should be closely monitored. Policy-wise, the Fourth Plenary Session in October may lead to policy support. Fundamentally, the weak demand during the peak season persists, and the weak reality is hard to change. Supply shows a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. If inventory pressure continues to rise, a new round of production cuts may occur. Overall, steel supply outstrips demand, policy support is limited, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Short-term attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff policy interference [49][50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel prices are oscillating with differentiation among varieties. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, while the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production are on the rise. The production of rebar has decreased but remains at a high level, with demand continuing to fall and the peak - season expectations unfulfilled. The terminal demand is still weak, and the rebar inventory has increased, adding to the inventory pressure. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both increased, with production reaching a new high for the year, a significant increase in demand, and a slight reduction in inventory. Steel exports have decreased month - on - month but still show resilience. The market sentiment was boosted by macro factors on Friday, and the cost side still provides support. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, and attention should be paid to the changes in peak - season demand. In the short term, the steel market will operate in an oscillatory manner [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production - Molten iron production reached 2405500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 117100 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39%. The electric furnace operating rate was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [5]. - As of September 12, the production of rebar decreased by 67500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, the long - process production decreased by 31100 tons week - on - week, and the short - process production decreased by 36400 tons week - on - week. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 109000 tons week - on - week [35]. 3.2 Demand - Recently, high - frequency data showed that the apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coils increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1980700 tons (- 40000), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3261600 tons (+ 208000) [5]. - As of September 12, the weekly average of building material trading volume was 103000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6128.8 tons, with a slight increase in trading. The weekly average of hot - rolled coil trading volume was 34700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1043 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 846000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12400 tons [44][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory was 6538600 tons (+ 138600), the social inventory was 4872300 tons (+ 185700), and the steel mill inventory was 1666300 tons (- 47100). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3733200 tons (- 10200), the social inventory was 2924400 tons (- 19200), and the steel mill inventory was 808800 tons (+ 9000) [5]. - As of September 12, the billet inventory in Tangshan was 611000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14200 tons. The inventory of major steel products was 10953200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 179600 tons [53]. 3.4 Basis As of September 12, the basis of the rebar main contract was 93 yuan/ton (- 4), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 36 yuan/ton (- 4) [12]. 3.5 Raw Materials The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1401 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [15]. 3.6 Other Related Data - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330000 tons; from January to August, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [65]. - According to Steel Union data, automobile production in August was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 223900 vehicles. New energy vehicle production in July was 1.243 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 25000 vehicles [69]. - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.9%. Specifically, from January to August, the new construction area of houses was 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%, with a decline rate of 0.1%. The completed area of houses was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%, with a decline rate of 0.5%. From January to August, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, with a decline rate of 0.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.8%. From January to August, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises were 6.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, with a decline rate of 0.5% [73].