综述：供需双增下，5月钢价低位宽幅震荡 基本面二维四象 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 投资咨询部 黑色金属小组 研究员：曹帅 从业资格号：F03088816 投资咨询号：Z0019565 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 市场分析：市场分析：钢材前期较低迷的基本面已在价格结构中逐步体现，远强 近弱，contango 结构弱化，当前钢材估值中性偏低。从成本库存来看，随着宏 观扰动消退叠加需求修复，原料价格震荡运行，钢材成本中枢动态构建。钢材社 会库存及钢厂库存双双去库。预计钢价 5 月偏强运行，建议逢低偏多思路对待。 一、螺纹钢 4 月行情回顾：关税阴霾下，钢价偏弱震荡 图 1：螺纹钢期货价格走势 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 二、螺纹钢市场结构：Congtango 弱化；05 贴水 10，10 贴水 01 三、供给端：开工率及铁水大幅上涨，钢材供应压力增大 数据分析：截至 2025 年 5 月 02 号，Mysteel 调研的 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The steel market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with minor fluctuations. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged, with rebar production slightly decreasing and coil production increasing. Rebar continued to reduce inventory, and the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils were also good. However, the impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and there is still an expectation of weakening demand in the market. Meanwhile, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly after reaching its peak, and there is a strong expectation that the demand for building materials has reached its peak. Currently, the supply and demand of steel are in a good state, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material prices and demand expectations [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The steel market rose first and then fell last week, with the iron ore on the raw material side remaining strong. The increase in hot metal data last week supported the ore price. Due to the increase in tariffs, the expectation of weakening steel exports has persisted, causing minor fluctuations in the black market prices [3]. - In terms of industries, rebar production decreased slightly, hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total steel inventory continued to decline. The rebar 2510 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase; the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract rose by 23 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase; and the iron ore 2509 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase [3]. - The peak rebar demand declined last week, the steel mill capacity slightly decreased, and the total rebar inventory continued to decline. The fundamentals of rebar supply and demand were good, and the inventory reduction cycle continued. However, the peak annual rebar demand may have occurred and may gradually decline later. The capacity of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, demand slightly increased, and the total inventory decreased. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coils should pay attention to the impact of trade policy changes on exports [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, steel supply continued to grow last week. Rebar production decreased slightly, while coil production increased. The capacity of major steel coil products has been continuously recovering recently, while the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the apparent demand for coils has slightly increased. The total steel inventory decreased [5]. - The sales of building material rebar decreased significantly compared to the previous week, increasing the probability that the annual rebar demand has reached its peak. The weekly production of building material rebar was 2.2911 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.175 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products was 8.7584 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 15.3424 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 504,100 tons [5]. - The demand for rebar decreased by 138,800 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 308,300 tons, and the steel mill's rebar capacity slightly decreased, maintaining inventory reduction. The hot-rolled coil capacity increased by 31,000 tons, the apparent demand slightly increased by 2,000 tons, and the coil inventory decreased by 68,600 tons [5]. Market Outlook - The steel market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material price costs and demand expectations. Although the supply and demand of steel are currently in a good state, there is an expectation of weakening demand. The impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and the demand for rebar may have reached its peak [6]. - The hot metal production reached a new high last week, and the supply and demand of raw material ore were balanced, with no downward pressure on prices. The demand for raw material ore remains relatively stable [6].