Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals prices, particularly gold and silver, has been followed by a significant and unprecedented drop, leading to a market reevaluation of the impact of high copper prices on downstream demand [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals have seen strong price increases, with copper and aluminum reaching historical highs before experiencing a sharp decline [1]. - International gold prices experienced a maximum drop of over 12%, while silver saw a decline exceeding 35%, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - The rising copper prices have significantly increased operational pressures for manufacturing companies, leading to strategies such as "aluminum replacing copper" and controlling copper usage to mitigate costs [1][4]. - A transformer manufacturing company reported a loss of 16,000 yuan per unit due to increased copper prices, which rose from over 70,000 yuan to over 100,000 yuan per ton [2]. - Copper processing companies are facing increased financial strain, with one company reporting an additional 200 million yuan in working capital requirements due to rising copper prices [3]. Group 3: Industry Responses - Companies are adopting various cost-reduction strategies, including the trend of "aluminum replacing copper," which is being standardized in industries such as air conditioning and automotive [4]. - The focus on reducing copper usage has led to clients demanding lower copper weights in products, reflecting a shift in cost management priorities [5]. - Some companies are investing in equipment upgrades to reduce labor and energy costs, with a significant portion of costs in printed circuit boards attributed to copper [5]. Group 4: Price Dynamics - Copper prices have remained high, with domestic spot prices ranging from 72,500 yuan to over 100,000 yuan per ton, marking a 15-year high [6]. - Factors contributing to the sustained high copper prices include anticipated U.S. tariffs on copper, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic expectations [7]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are signs of demand weakness, with reports of reduced orders from downstream sectors, including traditional pillars like power grid construction [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, production capacity is controlled in the long - term. Domestic real estate restrains demand, but opportunities for aluminum to replace copper should be noted. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored [3]. - From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, last week, LME inventory was 495,725 tons, showing a slight increase compared with the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. The demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. LME inventory was 495,725 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 3.2.1 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum from 2018 to 2024 (in 10,000 tons). In 2018, production was 3,609, net imports were 7.03, apparent consumption was 3,615.03, actual consumption was 3,662.63, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.6. From 2019 to 2023, there were varying degrees of supply - demand deficits, with the largest deficit of - 68.61 in 2019. In 2024, there will be a supply - demand surplus of 15 [11]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Import Profit - No specific content provided

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（1.19~1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周高位震荡，上周主力合约上涨1.53%，周五收盘报24290元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，消费有所影响，但注意铝代 铜机会。国内基本面上，需求处于淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存507275吨，较前周出现小幅 增加，SHFE周库存增11174吨至197053吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of rising copper prices on the electrical equipment industry, leading to a shift towards aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications, particularly in the context of new energy power projects [1][8] - The price of copper has surged from less than 70,000 yuan/ton to over 100,000 yuan/ton, marking an increase of nearly 50%, while aluminum prices have only slightly risen to about 25,000 yuan/ton, resulting in a substantial widening of the price gap between the two metals [2][6] - The proportion of aluminum alloy cables used in newly built small and medium-sized charging stations has reached 60-70%, indicating a significant trend towards "aluminum replacing copper" in the industry [1][8] Group 2 - The continuous rise in copper prices has pressured the profit margins of electrical equipment manufacturers, leading to multiple price adjustments for products such as transformers and cables, with increases averaging around 3% per adjustment [5][7] - The price of copper-core transformers has increased by 13% to 20% over the past year, while the price of copper cables has risen by 25% to 50%, reflecting the sensitivity of the industry to fluctuations in copper prices [7][6] - Companies are increasingly adopting dynamic pricing mechanisms linked to copper prices, with some reporting that every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in copper prices results in approximately a 1% increase in cable prices [6][8] Group 3 - The shift towards aluminum is driven by cost considerations, as using aluminum cables and transformers can significantly reduce the overall construction costs of charging stations, with potential savings of at least 150,000 yuan for a typical small charging station [10][12] - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" has evolved from an experimental phase to a mainstream strategy within the industry, as companies seek to control costs amid high copper prices [10][12] - The operational profitability of charging stations is heavily influenced by material costs, with many investors weighing the additional costs of copper materials against potential returns, leading to a preference for aluminum solutions [10][12]

行业 铝日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 黄金大涨和宏观宏大叙事推动下有色板块表现持续亢奋，29 日沪铜增仓大 涨，最高站上 11 万继续刷新高点，沪铝跟随上涨最高逼近 2.6 万，2603 收盘报 25590 涨幅 2.92%，总持仓减少 4703 受至 80.5 万手，伦铝最高至 3341 美元/吨， 进口窗口保持关闭，收盘现货进口理论亏损-2000 元/吨。美联储 1 月议息会议维 持利率不变符合市场预期，美元维持贬值趋势，流动性持续宽松，同时美伊冲突 升级引发海外铝锭物流供应担忧 ...

2026年初，铝价经历了一波凌厉涨势，突破25000关口，随后回吐部分涨幅，但价格中枢已实质性上 移。昨日国内大宗商品整体走强，其中沪铝表现极为亮眼，盘中增仓大涨，创历史新高。本轮拉涨的主 要驱动是什么？后续走势能否延续强势？ 宏观氛围较好，资金面情绪高涨 1月28日凌晨，美国总统特朗普表示："我认为美元表现很好。我希望回归自身应有的水平，这是合理的 做法。"特朗普还暗示他可以操控美元汇率，他说："我可以让它像悠悠球一样涨跌。"特朗普称不担忧 美元跌势，加剧了市场对美元的悲观预期，美元指数在特朗普评论时先小幅拉升，随后大幅下跌超50 点，创下2022年2月以来的新低。受此影响，贵金属强势上行、有色金属板块回暖。 当前市场存在显著的板块轮动效应，在贵金属暴涨后，基本面支撑强劲的有色板块成为资金关注的"价 值洼地"。去年贵金属狂飙使得金铜比处于历史高位，具备一定金融属性的铜处于低估状态，结合基本 面和宏观助力，沪铜率先进入上行通道，创出历史新高，此时，"铜铝比"开始进入视野，沪铝涨幅相对 沪铜滞后，两者比价关系不断拉大，市场认为沪铝价格被低估，投机资金开始流向沪铝。此外，近期贵 金属市场限仓政策落地，白银、锡已有 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰审核 | 浦电路交易员 01行情走势 1月28日，大量资金涌入沪铝，推动期价大涨，创历史新高，主力合约收涨5.75%，持仓增加逾5万手，资金流入超17亿元。直接上游氧化铝品种，今日减 仓上涨，主力05合约价格涨幅3.27%，以2811元/吨收盘，另外6月份和7月份合约价格涨幅也在3%以上。同时，A股市场中多只和铝相关的股票纷纷涨停收 盘，如中国铝业、云铝股份、南山铝业等。 市场分析指出，沪铝今日走强主要收到以下几个因素驱动： 一、宏观与地缘风险：为铝价注入"风险溢价" 1、霍尔木兹海峡危机预期：美伊紧张局势升级，市场担忧伊朗可能封锁该海峡。这直接威胁到中东地区（年产电解铝约700万吨，占全球9%）的铝产 业： 直接断供：中东地区氧化铝原料依赖进口，海峡封锁将导致当地冶炼厂原料断供、被迫减产，并切断其占产量约60%的出口铝流，冲击全球供应链。 成本抬升：该海峡承载全球30%石油贸易，封锁将引发油价暴涨。由于电力成本约占电解铝生产成本的50%，能源价格飙升将系统性推高全球铝生产成 本。 2、美元走弱与资金迁徙：美元指数大幅下跌，利好以美元计价的基本金属。同时，贵金属市场因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, cross-market sentiment resonance, and a solid long-term narrative of supply constraints [4][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 28, significant capital inflow into Shanghai aluminum led to a price increase of 5.75%, reaching a historical high, with over 50,000 contracts added and more than 1.7 billion yuan flowing in [2]. - The upstream alumina market saw a reduction in positions and a price increase of 3.27%, closing at 2,811 yuan/ton, with June and July contracts also rising over 3% [2]. - Several aluminum-related stocks in the A-share market, such as China Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum, hit their daily price limits [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, are raising concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, which produces about 9% of global electrolytic aluminum [4]. - A weaker US dollar is benefiting dollar-denominated metals, while speculative funds are shifting towards aluminum due to its relative undervaluation compared to other non-ferrous metals [4]. - The strong performance of leading aluminum stocks in the A-share market has sent bullish signals to the futures market, creating a positive feedback loop between stock and futures prices [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its policy ceiling of 45 million tons, with operational capacity at 44.1 million tons, indicating limited room for growth [6][10]. - European aluminum production is facing structural shortages, with local production at only 950,000 tons against a consumption of 13.5 million tons, creating a significant gap [7]. - New capacity in Indonesia is expected to be slow to materialize due to severe power supply bottlenecks, with construction timelines extending to 3-5 years [8]. - Long-term demand for aluminum is projected to grow significantly in emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, reinforcing market consensus on future supply-demand gaps [10]. Group 4: Current Market Overview - The average price of domestic aluminum (A00) is reported at 24,320 yuan/ton, with regional price differences indicating stronger demand in southern China [11]. - Weekly electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly to 85,770 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [11]. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in December was 513,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.56% [12]. - Downstream demand is showing a divergence, with traditional sectors like construction underperforming, while new sectors like electric vehicles are driving robust demand [14]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent price increases are attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, with expectations of continued upward pressure on prices despite potential demand suppression from high prices [17][19]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term fundamentals may appear weak, the long-term bullish narrative remains intact, providing opportunities for long-term investors [19][20]. - The market is advised to be cautious of high volatility due to the interplay of short-term weaknesses and long-term strengths, with a focus on strategic positioning rather than aggressive trading [19][21].

Summary of Aluminum Replacement for Copper in the Air Conditioning Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the air conditioning industry and the trend of replacing copper with aluminum in heat exchangers due to cost advantages and resource security [1][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Cost Advantage**: Aluminum prices are approximately one-fourth of copper prices, leading to significant cost savings in air conditioning production [1][6]. 2. **Performance Efficiency**: Full aluminum microchannel heat exchangers can improve thermal conversion efficiency by about 10% compared to full copper, while also reducing weight by half and refrigerant usage by nearly half [1][3]. 3. **Technical Feasibility**: Aluminum heat exchangers can achieve 90% of copper's performance, with potential improvements to 96%-98% through structural optimization and the addition of rare earth alloys [1][10]. 4. **Market Adoption**: Major air conditioning companies like Haier, Midea, Gree, Xiaomi, and Aux have begun mass production of aluminum products, with Haier having a high export ratio [1][11]. 5. **Projected Growth**: The penetration rate of aluminum replacement technology is expected to reach over 80% by 2027, driven by price advantages and the plans of leading companies [2][22]. Additional Important Content 1. **Material Comparison**: Four main technical paths for heat exchanger materials are identified: aluminum replacing copper, non-wing (plate-type) heat exchangers, and aluminum-copper composite heat exchangers, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages [2][5]. 2. **Environmental Impact**: The use of aluminum or composite materials contributes to lightweight design, enhancing energy efficiency and reducing refrigerant usage, thus promoting environmental sustainability [7]. 3. **Standardization Efforts**: Ongoing efforts in the industry include the establishment of technical standards, testing and validation of new materials, and collaboration among leading brands to ensure product reliability and performance consistency [7][8]. 4. **Consumer Acceptance**: Consumer acceptance of aluminum components varies, with lower acceptance in high-end markets compared to mid-range and low-end markets [18]. 5. **Challenges**: Key challenges include higher maintenance costs and potential reductions in product lifespan, with estimates suggesting a decrease of 20% in lifespan when using aluminum instead of copper [16][20]. Conclusion The air conditioning industry is poised for a significant shift towards aluminum as a replacement for copper in heat exchangers, driven by cost efficiency, performance improvements, and environmental considerations. Major players are already adapting their strategies to align with this trend, indicating a robust future for aluminum technology in this sector.