数据显示，2月2日上海电解镍现货价格报价140200.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格(129650.00元/吨)升水 10550.0元/吨。 (2月2日)全国镍价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 型 | | | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 140250元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 144400元/ | 市场价 | 广东省/广州 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 镍钴总量≥(%):99.96;品名:金川电解镍 | 143800元/ | 出厂价 | 甘肃省/金昌 | 金川集团有限公司 | | 板; | 吨 | | 市 | | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 146800元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海金藏物资公司 | | | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 140050元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback in the real - end has limited impact, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. In the short term, nickel prices are likely to follow market risk preferences, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices rose significantly this week due to the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of LME nickel prices. In the Philippines, rainfall led to a near - halt in mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting domestic ore prices. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable with prices unchanged, while the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore at the factory increased to $54 - 56 per wet ton [11]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China continued to rise sharply this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 25 yuan per nickel point to 1,042.5 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax - included). The price is expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: Nickel intermediate products maintained a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient" this week. The high price suppressed downstream acceptance, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. The supply of high - grade nickel matte was also tight with a firm coefficient, but transactions were restricted by high prices [11]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices first weakened and then strengthened this week. The Shanghai Nickel main contract 2602 closed at 148,010 yuan per ton on Friday, up 2.52% for the week. The LME 3M contract was reported at $18,850 per ton, up 4.07% for the week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including the LME 3 - month nickel and the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [15]. - **Spot premium and discount**: It shows the average premium and discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai Nickel contract, as well as the LME nickel spot premium and discount [18][21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the price of nickel iron, the price of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [23]. 3.3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: It shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines [28][30][32]. - **Nickel iron**: Data on the monthly production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China, as well as the production profit situation, are presented [34][36]. - **Intermediate products**: Information on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and coefficient of intermediate products is provided [38][40][42]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons compared to October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel [46][48]. - **Demand**: It presents data on domestic stainless - steel production, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries [49][51]. - **Import and export**: The report shows the domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss [53]. - **Inventory**: It includes domestic refined nickel inventory and the LME's regional inventory [55]. - **Cost**: Data on the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are provided [58]. 3.5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [62]. - **Demand**: It presents data on the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [65]. - **Cost and price**: Information on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials is provided [67]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed table of the global and Chinese nickel supply - demand balance from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and inventory changes [71].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 142320 | 970 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -210 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17792 | -798 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 83210 | -14515 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -61562 | 8295 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 285732 | 450 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 48180 | 1530 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13098 | 0 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 41798 | -187 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 145900 | -3450 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 146100 | -3350 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a significant decline due to a combination of high inventory levels, weak demand, and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, the Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract close at 142,320 CNY/ton, down 2,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.42% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 146,400 CNY/ton, down 2,100 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and strong economic data have dampened expectations for early interest rate cuts, maintaining a high USD index that pressures commodity prices, including nickel [2]. - Structural monetary policies in China have been implemented, but their impact on real demand is delayed, particularly during the traditional off-season [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is facing a significant contradiction between high inventory levels and weak demand, with global visible inventories at high levels indicating a loose supply situation [3]. - The traditional stainless steel sector, which constitutes a major part of nickel consumption, is currently in a seasonal downturn, leading to low purchasing willingness for high-cost raw materials [3]. Group 4: Industry Chain and Market Sentiment - Profit distribution within the industry is shifting towards upstream resource sectors, while downstream sectors face pressure from high costs and weak orders, resulting in a narrow profit margin [4]. - The market is characterized by low trading activity and declining premiums, as traders are eager to sell while downstream buyers only engage in essential purchases [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term as the market seeks to digest high inventory pressures and await clear signs of demand recovery [5]. - Despite the current price adjustments, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by the ongoing supply contraction from Indonesia and structural demand growth from the energy transition [5].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have seen a significant increase of over 30% from mid-December to early January, driven by news of Indonesia's potential reduction of nickel ore quotas for 2026, although prices are currently under pressure due to overall high levels in the non-ferrous metals market [3][15]. Nickel Ore Policy Developments - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to between 250 million and 260 million tons, with existing quotas allowed to continue until the end of Q1 to ensure production continuity during the review period [4][16]. - The price of nickel ore has increased, with a recent transaction of 1.3% grade nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB $38, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase [4][16]. - Domestic nickel ore imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 40.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with nearly 91% sourced from the Philippines [4][16]. Nickel Iron Price Trends - In December 2025, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 180,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.6% month-on-month and a 4.8% year-on-year growth [6][18]. - Domestic high-nickel pig iron prices have risen, with factory prices reaching 1,010-1,020 RMB per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices increased to $128 per nickel [6][18]. - Nickel pig iron imports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 10.056 million tons, a 26.7% increase year-on-year, with approximately 97% of imports from Indonesia [6][18]. Refined Nickel Inventory Pressure - Domestic refined nickel production in December 2025 was 29,058 tons, a slight increase from November but a 16.4% year-on-year decline, with total production for the year at 410,800 tons, a 22.8% increase [8][20]. - As of January 16, total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 48,180 tons, with registered warehouse receipts at 41,985 tons, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][20]. - LME nickel inventory has also been on the rise, with the latest total at 285,700 tons, suggesting a globally loose supply of refined nickel [8][20]. Demand Stability and Weakness - Nickel demand is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant sector [10][22]. - In December 2025, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.7472 million tons, a slight decrease from November but a 5.6% year-on-year increase [10][22]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has rapidly increased to 33,600 RMB per ton, indicating some purchasing demand from nickel salt manufacturers despite overall weak speculative demand [10][22]. Summary - The overall environment shows increased volatility in silver and copper prices, which may influence nickel prices [12][24]. - Indonesia's announcement regarding potential reductions in nickel ore quotas is still developing, which could impact market sentiment [12][24]. - Despite the recovery in sentiment across the nickel supply chain, there remains significant pressure from excess inventory, particularly in refined nickel [12][24].

镍期货市场：美指下跌提振资金加速流入基本金属全线上涨，隔夜伦镍收涨2.12%；伦镍最新收盘报 18075，比前一交易日上涨375美元/吨，涨幅为2.12%，成交15514手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震 荡，尾盘小幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报141520元/吨，下跌60元/吨，跌幅为0.04%； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月12日伦镍库存报284562吨，较前一交易日库存量减少228吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报145000涨3420元，9：20分沪镍主力 2602合约报140840跌740；沪期镍开盘高开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，当前镍价承压，核心在 于宏观与地缘两大支撑动能同步减弱。一方面，市场对主要央行政策独立性的疑虑抑制了整体风险偏 好，而资金正从大宗商品等传统领域流向科技成长赛道，导致金属市场的流动性支撑削弱。另一方面， 此前推升价格的关键地缘风险溢价正在消退，特别是非洲资源地区的紧张局势出现缓和迹象，显著降低 了供应链中断的担忧。宏观情绪退潮与供应风险缓释形成共振，共同加剧了镍价的下行压力。 供应端压力增大：全球显性库存持续累积至高位，构成了对价格的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have strengthened due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, industry trends, and geopolitical disturbances, reflecting a complex interplay of liquidity expectations, supply constraints, and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Supply Side - Indonesia's policy changes are the biggest variable affecting the supply landscape, with rumors suggesting a potential 34% reduction in nickel ore production quotas by 2026, which could significantly alter the global nickel supply-demand balance [2] - Indonesia's proposed revision of mining taxes to classify by-product cobalt as a separate taxable item may increase nickel smelting production costs, providing price support from the cost side [2] - Although LME nickel inventories are high, the availability of specific brands and grades for delivery is relatively tight, leading to higher spot premiums and indicating that immediate supply is not as loose as the absolute inventory figures suggest [2] Demand Side - Nickel demand is driven by two core areas: stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of global nickel consumption, and the rapidly growing demand from the new energy battery sector, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries [3] - The aerospace and military sectors also contribute to demand through the use of nickel-based superalloys, adding a high-value growth segment to the market [3] - The nickel industry chain is characterized by high upstream concentration, technology-driven midstream, and diversified downstream demand, with Indonesia controlling about 70% of global supply [3] Market Outlook - Short-term nickel price trends will be primarily influenced by expectations surrounding Indonesia's production reduction policies, alongside geopolitical factors and resilient demand, suggesting prices may remain strong but volatile [4] - High global visible inventories will impose substantial constraints on the upward price potential, with future market focus on the implementation and effectiveness of Indonesia's policies and the path for inventory digestion [4]

有色金属研究 | 镍 专题报告 2026-01-09 剧烈反弹之后，如何看待镍价走势？ 报告要点： 近期镍价强势反弹更多体现为宏观交易逻辑主导的估值修复，而非产业供需格局发生实质性改 善。在商品普涨与风险偏好抬升的背景下，宏观资金持续流入显著改变了盘面主导力量，推动 价格突破前期震荡区间。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 基本面层面，2026 年在印尼矿端配额供应相对充裕、后续新增项目投产的假设下，镍产业链过 剩压力仍较为突出，中长期镍铁与精炼镍价格仍面临向下修正风险；尤其精炼镍在短期溢价快 速扩大后，或将通过转产与增产机制引发供给弹性释放，进而抑制其估值持续扩张空间。考虑 到当前多头资金体量较大、短期内难见明显撤退迹象，同时印尼配额缩减（RKAB）叙事尚无法 证伪，镍价或仍将维持一定风险溢价，后市更大概率转入高位宽幅震荡格局。需重点关注两类 验证信号：一是 LME 与国内显性库存是否出现持续累积；二是盘面资金（尤其基金端）持仓是 否出现明显减仓或多头离场迹象，若两者同步出现，则本轮上涨行情可能逐步进入尾声。 吴坤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn, with prices hitting new lows due to a combination of oversupply and policy changes from Indonesia, the largest nickel supplier [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper and aluminum prices are reaching new highs, while nickel prices are declining, indicating a divergence in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 19.34% [2]. - Global nickel inventories have surpassed 310,000 tons by early December 2025, with an increase of over 100,000 tons throughout the year, indicating a high inventory level [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost of purchasing raw materials and some integrated processes, leading to a lack of strong cost support for current price levels [2]. - The lowest production costs in the industry continue to decline, anchoring market prices to these lower levels amid oversupply [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia's potential policy changes could significantly impact future nickel supply, with mining quotas expected to decrease from 379 million tons in 2025 to approximately 250 million tons in 2026 [3]. - Proposed adjustments to pricing and tax regulations in Indonesia may increase mining costs, as cobalt and other by-products will be treated as independent commodities subject to royalties [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply reductions from Indonesia, which could lead to a rapid price rebound based on rising cost expectations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in nickel prices appears limited, with a preliminary bottom possibly established [4]. - Future market direction will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the implementation of related tax policies [4].