1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the nickel industry are under pressure. The weakening of ferronickel prices and significant refined nickel inventory pressure are dragging down nickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may not rise significantly and could even decline further. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing cycles, combined with China's anti - involution policies, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the new year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, one can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices have been stable recently. In the Philippines, despite the decline in domestic ferronickel prices and weakening demand, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas has strengthened the mines' willingness to hold prices, so the short - term decline of Philippine nickel ore prices is unlikely. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand remains loose, but due to concerns about the RKAB approval quotas in the fourth quarter and 2026, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downward space of ore prices [11]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel prices have continued to weaken recently. The slow de - stocking of stainless steel social inventory, limited support for stainless steel prices during the peak season, and low procurement willingness of steel enterprises have led to the weakening of ferronickel prices. The market has gradually shifted to trading the pessimistic expectation of the fundamentals after the peak season, and there is still room for further decline in the future [11]. - **Intermediate products**: On the supply side, the market's available and tradable supply has remained tight, strengthening the sellers' bargaining power, and some traders have raised their quotes, providing price support. On the demand side, as the downstream industries enter the peak demand season, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has been released. In this context, downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After the holiday, affected by the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel prices rebounded strongly. However, as the upward driving force weakened and market sentiment faded, nickel prices adjusted downward. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and the continued Sino - US trade frictions have significantly reduced market risk appetite. In the spot market, overall transactions were average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased, with decreases of 1,420 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and 1,500 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) respectively. The spot price ratio increased by 0.16 (1.99%), and the import loss decreased by 3.05 percentage points [15]. - **Futures market**: The LME closing price decreased by 105 US dollars (- 0.69%), and the SHFE closing price decreased by 1,020 yuan (- 0.83%). The Russian nickel premium remained unchanged, while the LME nickel premium decreased by 8.2 US dollars/ton. The three - month price ratio increased by 0.18 (2.34%). The LME position decreased by 0.36 million lots (- 1.03%), and the SHFE position increased by 1.44 million lots (6.81%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory increased by 1.32 million tons (5.54%), the SHFE inventory increased by 0.13 million tons (3.93%), the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 4.89%), the nickel plate spot inventory increased by 0.21 million tons (4.86%), and the nickel bean spot inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 11.88%) [15]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The report provides data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through multiple charts [29][31][33]. - **Ferronickel**: It shows the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China through charts [35][37]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production, import volume, and price of Indonesian MHP and ice - nickel, as well as the price and transaction coefficient of intermediate products through charts [39][41][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: It shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel through charts [47]. - **Demand**: It reflects the demand for refined nickel from aspects such as domestic stainless steel production, social inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real estate demand through charts [49][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel through charts [53]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was reported at 270,000 tons, and the report also shows the domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventory through charts [56][58]. - **Cost**: It shows the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by raw material and process through charts [59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of Chinese nickel sulfate through charts [63]. - **Demand**: It reflects the demand for nickel sulfate from aspects such as ternary power battery loading volume and Chinese ternary precursor production through charts [66]. - **Cost and price**: It shows the production cost, price, and main raw material production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate through charts [68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Global supply outlook**: It shows the global nickel supply outlook through a chart [75]. - **Quarterly supply - demand balance forecast**: From 2023 to 2025, the supply of nickel has generally exceeded the demand, with a total supply - demand surplus of 82,900 tons in 2023, 2,720 tons in 2024, and it is expected to be 166,400 tons in 2025 [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]

General Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Report's Core View - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell. The main contract 2511 reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton. Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day [7] - The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200 [7] - The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton [7] - Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. The new RKAB regulations have changed from a three-year batch to a one-year batch, and the mining quotas for 2026 obtained by some enterprises have been invalidated. The Indonesian government has also taken over more than 148 hectares of mining areas in the Wedabay Industrial Park, affecting no more than 1.2 million wet tons of nickel ore production, and ordered 190 mining companies that have not paid reclamation deposits to suspend production for up to 60 days, with an estimated volume of about 3 million wet tons [7] - The entry of the world's second-largest copper mine into force majeure has triggered concerns about global metal supply. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Industry News - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to rise slightly in the second half of October, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.27%. The HMA in the second half of October is 15,142 US dollars per dry ton, an increase of 40 US dollars per dry ton [10] - The HPM prices of nickel ore with different grades in the second half of October have all increased slightly compared to the first half of the month. For example, the HPM price of 1.2% nickel ore is 15.35 US dollars per wet ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars per wet ton [10][12] - The Indonesian forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. The task force has previously taken similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The prosecutor said that the focus of this action is to regain national control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may further enter criminal investigations [11] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and signing the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [11] - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said at a press conference that regarding the financial reform content of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the next step, further communication will be made after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251010: Limited Rebound Height [1] 2. Core View - On October 9, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 130,864 lots (+3,674) and an open interest of 86,038 lots (+9,898). LME nickel rose 0.91%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the rebound height of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased on October 9 compared to previous dates. For example, the near - month contract closed at 124,260 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 130,864 lots, an increase of 3,674 lots. The open interest was 86,038 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory decreased, while LME nickel inventory increased. The total LME nickel inventory on October 9 was 236,892 tons, an increase of 5,580 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different - term Shanghai nickel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed. For example, the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active Shanghai nickel futures contract changed from - 2,430 yuan/ton on September 24 to 1,000 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Stainless Steel Futures - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts also had changes. The near - month contract closed at 12,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless steel futures contract was 88,195 lots, a decrease of 39,957 lots compared to September 24. The open interest was 60,514 lots, a decrease of 7,320 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai stainless steel futures decreased. The inventory on October 9 was 86,551 tons, a decrease of 418 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different - term Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. For example, the basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active futures contract was 970 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Other Market Data - **Nickel Ore Prices**: The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8%) remained flat [2]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The prices of nickel - related products such as nickel pig iron, battery - grade nickel sulfate, and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate had different changes [2]. 4. Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the validity period of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to one year, and required general mining license (IUP) and single - commodity mining license (IUPK) holders to re - apply for RKAB in 2026 and 2027 [2]. 5. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Short at high prices [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the strong performance of ferronickel prices and significant inventory pressure of refined nickel lead to a divergence in the trends of nickel and ferronickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to grow, nickel prices may further decline to find the valuation bottom. But in the long - run, nickel prices do not have a basis for a sharp decline. Considering the global macro - easing expectations and news disturbances in Indonesia, long - position allocation has a higher cost - performance [1][14][18] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Ore - The overall supply and demand of nickel ore in Indonesia remain loose, with only a slight decline in the price of hydrometallurgical ore and firm prices of pyrometallurgical ore. Due to concerns about RKAB approval quotas, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downside of ore prices. In the Philippines, improved weather and rising downstream ferronickel prices may lead to higher mine quotes [4] Ferronickel - Recently, ferronickel prices have been running steadily and strongly, with the bargaining range moving up to 955 - 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Supply growth is limited as iron - plant profits are still low. On the demand side, the expected increase in stainless - steel production in September supports ferronickel demand, but the volatility of the stainless - steel market makes steel mills cautious in raw - material procurement. In the short - term, ferronickel prices are expected to continue to run steadily and strongly [6] Refined Nickel - In the short - term, there is an obvious oversupply of refined nickel. In September, the global visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation trend, increasing by 17,000 tons to 263,000 tons since the beginning of the month, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - run, nickel prices do not have a basis for a sharp decline because of Indonesia's RKAB approval system and the rising costs of smelting processes [14]

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a weak fluctuation, with SMM1 nickel quoted at 123,000 CNY/ton, down 600 CNY/ton, and Jinchuan nickel also at 123,000 CNY/ton, down 600 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows the main contract for nickel closing at 120,850 CNY/ton on September 10, with a slight decline of 0.07% [2] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron (NPI) exports increased significantly, with a total of 6.701 million tons exported from January to July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.384 million tons, or 26.0% [3] Group 2 - The analysis from Jianxin Futures indicates that the approval cycle adjustment for RKAB in Indonesia may disrupt supply in the second half of the year, but the decline in nickel ore prices is expected to be limited [4] - The report suggests that while the supply of refined nickel is under pressure, the current market is supported by nickel ore and cost factors, making a significant drop in prices unlikely [4] - The demand for nickel sulfate is expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels and ongoing raw material procurement needs from downstream enterprises [4]

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) shares rose over 8%, currently trading at HKD 1.48 with a transaction volume of HKD 18.66 million [1] - The company will hold a board meeting on August 29 to approve its interim results, expecting a consolidated revenue of approximately RMB 1.118 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be around RMB 71.8 million, showing a significant year-on-year decline of approximately 50.8%, primarily due to a drop in average selling prices of electrolytic nickel and increased production costs [1] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Futures, the nickel market is experiencing oversupply, with hidden inventories absorbing excess supply; July's significant imports did not disrupt domestic supply, and refined nickel spot prices remain stable [1] - In August, production of stainless steel and ternary materials is expected to increase month-on-month, providing support for primary nickel demand, while refined nickel may see improved transactions due to seasonal stocking [1] - Expectations for interest rate cuts in September may strengthen commodity indices, potentially allowing nickel prices to rebound on inflation expectations, although the upward space is limited, maintaining a wide fluctuation pattern [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) experienced a pre-earnings surge of over 8%, attributed to the upcoming board meeting to approve mid-term results, despite a significant decline in net profit due to falling nickel prices and rising production costs [1]. Company Summary - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's expected consolidated revenue for the first half of the year is approximately 1.118 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be around 71.8 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease of approximately 50.8% [1]. Industry Summary - According to Galaxy Futures, the nickel market is currently experiencing an oversupply, which is being absorbed by hidden inventories [1]. - In July, significant imports did not disrupt domestic supply, and refined nickel spot prices remained stable [1]. - In August, there is an increase in stainless steel and ternary production, providing support for primary nickel demand, while refined nickel may see improved transactions due to seasonal stocking [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts in September could strengthen commodity indices, potentially allowing nickel prices to rebound due to inflation expectations, although the upward potential remains limited, maintaining a wide fluctuation pattern [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the improvement in downstream stainless - steel demand is limited, and nickel prices still face correction pressure. However, in the medium to long term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will provide strong support for nickel prices, and the new - year RKAB approval also poses potential positive factors. The downside space for nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term price range for the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract, it is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The rainy season in Sulawesi ended this week, leading to a short - term increase in nickel ore supply. Most RKAB approvals in Indonesia are nearly completed, with approved quotas of about 3.1 - 3.3 billion wet tons. The tight supply of nickel ore has eased, and short - term ore prices may decline slightly. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), and that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week) [12]. - **Ferronickel**: Supply decreased slightly due to low profit levels at iron plants. Stainless - steel supply remains low, with August production expected to be flat month - on - month. Downstream speculative restocking in the demand side provides some support for stainless - steel demand, and social inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks. It is expected that stainless - steel supply will increase slightly, driving up ferronickel demand. Overall, the surplus pressure of ferronickel has eased slightly, and prices are stable with an upward trend. A domestic iron plant's high - nickel ferronickel was traded at 950 yuan/nickel (ex - works tax - included) this week, and mainstream quotes rose to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (cargo - in - hold tax - included) [12]. - **Intermediate products**: For MHP, the external procurement demand from downstream nickel sulfate has been released, while the trading volume from traders is limited, resulting in a shortage of supply and a significant increase in coefficient prices. For high - grade nickel matte, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is relatively weak, market transactions are sluggish, and coefficient prices remain stable [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly this week and then declined, closing at 120,600 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.2% from last week. The release of US July CPI data strengthened market expectations of monetary easing, but the subsequent PPI data showed resilience, slightly cooling market expectations of interest - rate cuts. In the spot market, downstream orders in the alloy and electroplating industries are scarce, market transactions are dull, and spot prices mainly fluctuate with the futures market, with stable premiums and discounts [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined nickel prices**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 122,550 yuan/ton (down 410 yuan/ton, - 0.33% from last week), and that of Russian nickel was 120,750 yuan/ton (down 370 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from last week). The LME closing price was 15,195 US dollars (up 80 US dollars, + 0.53% from last week), and the SHFE closing price was 120,600 yuan (down 580 yuan, - 0.48% from last week) [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 211,700 tons (down 600 tons, - 0.27% from last week), SHFE inventory was 27,000 tons (up 800 tons, + 2.93% from last week), bonded - area inventory was 5,400 tons (unchanged from last week), nickel plate spot inventory was 37,500 tons (up 2,000 tons, + 5.53% from last week), and nickel bean spot inventory was 2,900 tons (unchanged from last week) [16]. - **Premium and discount**: As of August 15, the average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton from last week), and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton from last week). The LME Cash/3M nickel discount was 207.88 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than the same period last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ex - works price of domestic high - nickel pig iron on Friday was 916 - 935 yuan/nickel point (average up 7 yuan/nickel point from last week), and the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,300 - 27,790 yuan/ton (average up 105 yuan/ton from last week) [26]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 15, nickel ore port inventories reached 1,095.16 million tons, up 6.0% from the same period last week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week), and the CIF price of 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore was 57 US dollars/ton (unchanged from last week) [34][37]. - **Intermediate products**: In June, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,000 nickel tons (basically flat month - on - month), and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons (significantly up month - on - month). As of August 15, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,684 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient to LME nickel of 0.86 (unchanged from last week); the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,054 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient to LME nickel of 0.88 (unchanged from last week) [44][49]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel production reached 36,200 tons, maintaining a historically high level [54]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [56][58]. - **Inventory**: Global refined nickel inventories increased slightly this week. According to Mysteel data, on August 15, the combined visible inventory in China and LME reached 252,000 tons, up 1,027 tons from the same period last month [63]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows production and net import volume data of nickel sulfate in China, but specific supply trends are not clearly summarized [69]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [72]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents the production cost, price, and profit - margin data of battery - grade nickel sulfate, but specific trends are not clearly summarized [74]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides quarterly supply - demand balance data from 2023 to 2025, showing that the overall supply of nickel exceeds demand, but the surplus is gradually narrowing. In 2025, the total supply is expected to be 3.7688 million nickel tons, and the total demand is 3.6024 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [79].