交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（12.22-12.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价大幅上涨，印尼配额问题引发原料供应担扰。近期部分产能减产，供 应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格部分小幅回落，海运费下降，矿库存高位，随着雨季来 临矿供应有所减少，矿山挺价。镍铁价格反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍 价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求 提振有限。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：镍价强势，空头观望，回到前期箱体再试空。 不锈钢主力：震荡偏强运行，空头暂等待。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 政策扰动 大幅反弹 20251228 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 上周沪镍低位大幅震荡反弹。 u 消息：人民币汇率破"7"在望。本周以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率稳步走高，周三离岸人民币对美元升穿7.01，一度触及7.0013， 距离破"7"关口只步之遥。国家能源局公布数据显示，11月份全社会用电量8356亿千瓦时，同比增长6.2%。其中，充换电服务业用电量同 比增长60.2%。印度尼西亚镍矿企业协会(APNI)透露 ...

镍价影响因素与走势分析 20251224 摘要 印尼计划到 2030 年将镍产量限制在 1.5 亿吨，较 2025 年减少约 34%，表明其控制镍供应的决心，可能导致镍价上涨。 印尼政府加强对 MHP（混合氢氧化物沉淀物）的监管，包括将 RKA B 审批改为一年一批，并加强环保政策，增加企业运营成本，支撑镍价。 印尼计划以 200 亿人民币收购德龙镍业，旨在加强上游矿业监管和下游 产业链价值提升，整合资源以提高财政收入，并推动产业链附加值提升。 印尼成立丹丹帕拉平台，关注矿业加工、能源安全、可再生资源和农渔 产品深加工，旨在整合国内资源，提高财政端放松度，增强国家财政能 力。 高品位镍矿消耗加速，平均品位从 2024 年的 1.66%下降到 2025 年的 1.57%，一年内下滑约 7%，小型矿业公司面临压力，促使印尼政府倡 导可持续发展并严格管理开采年限。 预计 2026 年镍市场将呈现较大波动，受供给端收紧和政策趋严影响， 企业与印尼国家之间的干预将是关键，未来镍价可能显著上涨。 国内多家公司积极布局镍相关领域，投资者可与相关团队交流以获取更 多详细信息，把握投资机会。 Q&A 近期镍价的波动情况及其背后 ...

12月23日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报120280.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沪镍主力最高触及123490.00元，下方探低120280.00元，涨幅达 3.64%。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 金瑞期货表示，展望后市，成本抬升预期抬高底部位置，结合超跌修复动力，市场情绪积极，上涨趋势 或持续，不过我们维持将配额削减可能性作为风险点看待，基准情形下过剩预期仍明确，基本面驱动乏 力，关注情绪消减后的右侧机会。短期沪镍主力核心区间【11.5，12.5】万元/吨。 西南期货分析称，从基本面来看镍矿价格趋稳，印尼方面打击非法矿山，叠加菲律宾进入雨季，后续镍 矿生产开采活动或受影响，矿价下方有支撑，另外不锈钢压力向上传导，下游镍铁厂亏损加大，印尼部 分高成本镍铁厂停产检修，不锈钢进入传统消费淡季，且受制于终端地产消费仍旧疲软，叠加镍铁成交 依旧冷清，钢厂压价心理较强，现实消费仍旧难言乐观，上方压力较大，精炼镍现货交投走弱，库存国 内大致持稳，但仍处于相对高位，总体看一级镍仍旧处于过剩格局 ...

2025 年 12月 21 日 基本面供需双弱。印尼镍矿消息扩 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 消息点评:印尼政策削弱空方信心,短线获得一定支撑,但上行驱动仍需关注政策落地情况。 1）印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减至 2.5 亿吨 镍矿配额。根据我们测算,预计 2024-2026年印尼镇矿需求为 2.5、2.8和3.0 亿吨,2.5 亿吨的配额或 造成矿端的紧缺,甚至倒逼冶炼端减产,进而将原生镍过剩预期扭转为紧缺,并对存量的高库存形成较大 冲击。不过,从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看,矿端迅速的"一刀切",易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的 矛盾,实际落地情况仍有待观察。因此,此消息表现为削弱空方信心。 2)市场公开消息称,印尼希望将镇矿中的伴生矿物,如钻,纳入征税体系。在上半年,印尼就将高 品镍矿资源税进行了调整。不论从印尼希望削减配额并防止过剩的态度,以及财政税收的角度来看,印尼 均不希望镍价深跌。从政策影响来看,高品镍矿资源税作用于基价,就率由 18%提高至 14%以上,理论上 转嫁给冶炼成本 700 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 消息点评：印尼政策削弱空方信心，短线获得一定支撑，但上行驱动仍需关注政策落地情况。 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 1）印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减至 2.5 亿吨 镍矿配额。根据我们测算，预计 2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，2.5 亿吨的配额或 造成矿端的紧缺，甚至倒逼冶炼端减产，进而将原生镍过剩预期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形成较大 冲击。不过，从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看，矿端迅速的"一刀切"，易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的 矛盾，实际落地情况仍有待观察。因此，此消息表现为削弱空方信心。 2）市场公开消息称，印尼希望将镍矿中的伴生矿物，如钴，纳入征税体系。在上半年，印尼就将高 品镍矿资源税进行了调整。不论从印尼希望削减配额并防止过剩的态度，以及财政税收的角度来看，印 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 镍观点： 18 日沪镍延续反弹，主力 2601 震荡走高，尾盘收涨 1.07%报 113940 元/吨。 8-12%环比上日继续下跌 1 至 885.5 元/镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日持平报 27430 元/吨，产业链价格小幅走弱。最新消息显示，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）表 示，政府在 2026 年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量目标约为 2.5 ...

行业方面，华联期货指出，今年的RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，印尼MHP产能释放 压制价格，但印尼国内矿业政策改变扰动仍在；10月国内镍进口保持高位，10月印尼镍铁供应维持高 位；10月电解镍产量维持高位，11月份小幅回落。 需求方面，中财期货分析称，不锈钢疲软转为负反馈，三元材料12月排产小幅增加，四季度新能源汽车 补贴退坡冲量临近尾声，不锈钢维持刚需采购心态。 12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，沪镍期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约震荡下 跌2.62%，报111990.00元/吨。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美联储理事米兰再次呼吁加快降息，断言"潜在"通胀接近目标， 称任期或延长。美联储"三把手"：上周降息后，货币政策已为明年做好准备。今年票委柯林斯：上周支 持降息是艰难决定。 对于后市走势，中辉期货表示，海外印尼减产影响逐步减弱，国内外镍库存仍处于偏高水平，下游不锈 钢消费转入淡季，终端需求支撑不足，镍价短期延续偏弱走势。 ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 3 探探探探探探 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 十一月纯镍产量环比骤降28.13%，此前盘面的快速下探对供应端的减产效应得以充分显现，镍价估值环比修复，但尚未收复前期跌幅，中长期逻 | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 辑仍受基本面因素压制。展望四季度，矿端成本刚性与印尼RKAB审批进程的不确定性形成双重支撑，限制镍价进一步深跌，但下游需求的现实矛 | | | | 盾尚未解决，上行驱动仍显乏力。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至12月1日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the prominent pressure on the nickel fundamentals, the nickel price broke through the platform and bottomed at around 115,000 yuan/ton. With the stabilization of the ferronickel price and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, the nickel price shifted to a volatile pattern. The report tends to believe that the short - term price has bottomed, but it is necessary to focus on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. [11] - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, or go long at low prices after the ferronickel price stabilizes and rebounds. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In November, the nickel ore price remained stable overall. For pyrometallurgical ore, although the smelter's cost - price inversion intensified and the demand for ore weakened significantly, the bargaining power of ore merchants was strong, and the prices of pyrometallurgical ore in Indonesia and the Philippines did not decline significantly. For hydrometallurgical ore, the market was still relatively dull, and the price mainly remained stable. [11] - **Ferronickel**: In November, the terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect led to a continuous decline in the ferronickel price. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, the stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, the industry inventory was high, and many stainless - steel enterprises had production - cut plans at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. The ferronickel production profit is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel, so it is expected that the ferronickel price will gradually stabilize in the future. [11] - **Intermediate products**: In November, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. On the supply side, the sulfur price remained strong, and the sellers were more willing to hold prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a relatively cold overall market transaction. [11] - **Refined nickel**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. In the spot market, the spot price of refined nickel was stronger than the futures price, and the premium was generally strong. [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trend**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. [17] - **Nickel spot premium**: The spot premium was stable and slightly strong. As of December 4, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the near - month contract, the same as last month, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 5,000 yuan/ton, with the average price up 2,100 yuan/ton from the same period last month. [21] - **Secondary nickel price**: The decline of the ferronickel price slowed down. As of December 5, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 884 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous week. The nickel sulfate price declined slightly. As of December 5, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,460 - 27,600 yuan/ton, with the average price down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. [24] 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable. On December 5, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 51.43 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.59 US dollars/wet ton from the previous week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/ton, the same as the previous week. [33] 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel output was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with October. [48] - **Demand**: The report shows the data of domestic stainless - steel monthly output, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Import and export**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, but does not specifically summarize the import - export situation. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons. [57] - **Cost**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel production cost by raw material and production profit margin by process, but does not specifically summarize the cost situation. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the data of China's nickel sulfate output and net import volume, but does not specifically summarize the supply situation. - **Demand**: The report shows the data of ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor output, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Cost and price**: The report shows the data of battery - grade nickel sulfate production cost, price, and the production profit margin of main raw materials, but does not specifically summarize the cost - price situation. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the global supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecast from 2019 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded the demand, with the supply - demand surpluses being 82,900 tons, 53,200 tons, and 126,600 tons respectively. [74]