导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 也欢迎大家给我们投稿：azhu830 yeah.net！ 下面，我们分享来自鹏华基金的最新12月思考。年底权益市场进入短期震荡，但不改未来趋势， 短期调整或为投资者带来较好的为来年布局机会。当前债券市场虽然未出现明确主线，但利率并 未对四季度基本面的边际走弱和可能的流动性宽松定价，市场留有足够的宏观叙事空间。海外市 场，美股重拾升势，美元转弱，美债收益率下行，信用利差收窄。展望未来，主动权益、固定收 益、量化指数以及多元资产有哪些投资机会值得重点关注？本期月观，我们邀请了鹏华基本面投 资专家和大家一起分享最新的深度投资观点。 主动权益 王海青 鹏华基金研究部副总经理 市场向上趋势与主线并未改变，短期调整给投资者带来较好的为来年布局的机会。我们看好以科 技为代表的先进制造业，也看好以有色、化工为代表的周期以及非银方向。 年底市场进入短期震荡，但不改未来趋势。 市场在经历三季度科技主线大涨之后，上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing emphasizes the need to fully tap economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, and focusing on both material and human investment to address external challenges [1][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The conference calls for a more proactive macroeconomic policy that enhances forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated measures, aiming to continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply [1][8]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit and total debt scale while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties [2][8]. - A moderately loose monetary policy is advocated, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various policy tools to maintain liquidity [2][8]. Key Tasks - The conference outlines several key tasks, including: 1. Prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with initiatives to boost consumption and increase central budget investment [3][9]. 2. Fostering innovation and enhancing new growth drivers, including improving intellectual property protection in emerging fields [3][9]. 3. Promoting coordinated development and urban-rural integration, while ensuring a stable real estate market and managing local government debt risks [3][9]. Overall Attitude - The conference reflects a more optimistic and determined attitude towards future economic challenges, shifting from a focus on recognizing difficulties to consolidating and expanding economic stability [4][10]. - There is a strong emphasis on structural adjustments and reforms, with a focus on quality and efficiency improvements in macroeconomic governance [4][10]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market suggests a favorable environment for investment as policy and liquidity converge positively, with expectations for a spring market rally [6][12]. - The bond market is also expected to benefit from the conference's outcomes, with a focus on maintaining fiscal policy stability and potential interest rate cuts in early 2024 [6][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese financial market, particularly focusing on monetary and fiscal policies, the bond market, the A-share market, and specific sectors such as AI, renewable energy, non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and commercial aerospace. Key Points and Arguments Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy remains accommodative, but the likelihood of further easing in 2026 is low; fiscal policy is actively supportive, focusing on livelihood, consumption, technological innovation, and local government debt resolution, with a projected fiscal deficit exceeding 6 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields rising by 6.1 BP, 20.1 BP, and 39.6 BP respectively since the second half of the year, driven by reduced expectations for monetary easing, inflation recovery, and increased supply pressure [3] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, supported by a strong RMB exchange rate and resilient domestic economic fundamentals; the market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase without rapid increases or significant declines [4][5] Cross-Year Market Sentiment - The core of the cross-year market sentiment is the expectation of a spring rally in 2026, with recommendations to position for potential market movements in December [6] Sector Focus for 2026 - Key sectors to watch include AI (especially CPO), renewable energy (storage), non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and non-ferrous chemicals; opportunities also exist in Hong Kong's internet sector and commercial aerospace [7][13] Specific Company Insights - **Sungrow Power Supply**: The fundamentals remain solid despite recent price drops; price increases in the storage supply chain are demand-driven and do not pose a significant risk [8][9] - **HiSilicon**: Facing significant unlocking pressure on January 27, which may create short-term challenges; however, opportunities in the renewable energy sector post-unlocking in February are noted [9] AI Industry Prospects - The AI sector, particularly in CPO, shows a clear and high certainty outlook; recent market fluctuations due to asset restructuring in specific companies do not significantly impact the overall AI industry [10] Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - Focus on copper and tin, with additional attention to silver, nickel, and rare metals, which present substantial investment opportunities in the near term [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by regulatory measures that enhance capital space and leverage limits for quality institutions, potentially increasing ROE [12] Commercial Aerospace Investment - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a significant investment theme for 2026, with ongoing attention and optimism regarding its growth potential [13] Additional Important Insights - The RMB's appreciation historically supports an upward shift in A-share valuations, indicating a positive correlation between currency strength and market performance [4] - The overall sentiment suggests a strategic focus on sectors with high growth potential and favorable market conditions as the year-end approaches [13]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China strongly urges Japan to stop disturbing China's normal military training activities [2] - The Chinese government asserts that its military exercises comply with international law and norms, while accusing Japan of provocative actions [2] - Japan's claims of radar illumination by Chinese naval aircraft are dismissed as misleading and an attempt to manipulate international opinion [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce expresses hope for Germany and the European Automobile Manufacturers Association to resolve the electric vehicle anti-subsidy case promptly [3] - Discussions between Chinese and European automotive industry leaders emphasize the deep integration of the automotive sectors [3] - The Chinese government welcomes continued investment from European car manufacturers to promote green and intelligent development in the automotive industry [3] Group 3 - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China discusses economic work for 2026, highlighting the importance of the current year in the modernization process [4] - The meeting emphasizes the stability and progress of China's economy, with significant advancements in various sectors over the past five years [4] - The government aims to achieve major social and economic development goals while enhancing both hard and soft power [4] Group 4 - China's foreign trade data shows a 5.9% increase in exports in November, recovering from a decline in October [5] - The country has achieved over $1 trillion in trade surplus within 11 months, surpassing the record set for 2024 [5] - High-tech products are identified as a key support for the trade growth amid global economic challenges [5] Group 5 - The A-share market's total trading volume exceeds 2 trillion yuan, marking a significant recovery after a period of low trading activity [6] - Several stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, see trading volumes surpassing 20 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [6] - Analysts predict an early spring market rally, with potential investment opportunities in sectors like non-bank finance and commercial aerospace [6] Group 6 - The State Taxation Administration prohibits platforms from shifting tax obligations to gig workers, addressing concerns about increased financial burdens [7] - Enhanced supervision of platforms is promised to ensure compliance with tax regulations and protect gig workers' interests [7] Group 7 - Paramount's bid of $108 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery intensifies competition in the media industry, particularly against Netflix [9][10] - The ongoing bidding war highlights the strategic importance of Warner Bros.' assets, including HBO and DC Comics [10] Group 8 - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped nearly 40% over the past four months, reflecting increasing short-selling activity [11] - The company's market capitalization has decreased by over 180 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating significant investor concern [11] - Short-selling amounts have surged, with a notable increase in the short-selling ratio compared to previous periods [11] Group 9 - The sodium-lithium battery industry is evolving rapidly, with leading companies positioning themselves for growth [46] - The wind turbine industry is experiencing a shift towards deeper integration within the supply chain [46] - The price of silver has doubled this year, with several related stocks showing low valuations [46]

Core Insights - The securities and insurance sectors experienced a strong opening, continuing the momentum from last Friday, with the CSI Securities Company Index rising by 2.4% and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index increasing by 2.1% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Securities Company Index saw significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Industrial Securities rising over 9% and Northeast Securities up over 5% [1] - The CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index also performed well, with major players like China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance each rising over 1% [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has lowered the risk factors for insurance companies investing in the CSI 300 index components, encouraging long-term investments and increasing the allocation of equity assets [1] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, emphasized the need to accelerate the development of top-tier investment banks and institutions, indicating a potential easing of restrictions for quality institutions [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities expressed optimism regarding insurance capital providing incremental support to the equity market in the coming years, highlighting the significant impact of policy intentions on stock prices [1] - Leading securities firms are expected to accelerate the development of proprietary trading, derivatives, institutional business, and wealth management due to the marginal relaxation of capital constraints, which may enhance return on equity (ROE) and strengthen valuation levels [1]

底部强 call 非银：曙光初现 20251207 摘要 券商板块 2025 年表现不佳，大幅跑输上证综指，但估值处于历史低位， PB/ROE 指标显示其具备向上空间，若 2026 年 ROE 提升，PB 有望突 破两倍。 证监会释放积极信号，表示将适当提升优质券商杠杆水平并鼓励金融创 新，这在当前估值较低、基础良好的情况下，可能放大政策利好效果。 若券商板块近期回调，应采取左侧交易策略，把握投资机会。当前市场 类似于 2025 年 4 月，券商股或将在短期内迎来上涨。 推荐关注东方证券和兴业证券，因其估值较低、基本面弹性较好、资管 业务强劲，且有并购预期。中信证券和国泰君安可作为板块走势参考。 判断减仓或清仓时机，需关注两市成交额和个股表现。成交量萎缩至 2.5 万亿以下或涨停个股数量减少是减仓信号。预计 2026 年一季度或 有明显行情。 2026 年市场风格预计均衡化，一季度首选券商，全年来看保险板块更 具持续性和配置价值，受益于红利股票增配和自身红利逻辑。 非车险报行合一政策全面落地将压降保险行业费用率，利好头部险企。 A 股首推中国太保，H 股首推中国平安，关注中国太平、中国人寿等低 估值 H 股。 ...

美联储进入降息周期背景下，港股市场流动性趋于宽松，有利于提升非银板块的估值弹性。中信建投证 券指出，在政策暖风频吹与资本市场改革持续推进的环境下，港股非银金融板块有望受益于流动性和风 险偏好的双重改善，尤其关注港交所等核心资产在市场活跃度回升中的向上弹性。 中信证券认为，保险股面临重大机遇。保险行业已从资产负债表衰退叙事中率先走向良性扩张，周期向 好正式确立，预计2026年向上趋势进一步加强，体现为：净资产恢复并维持较快增长、分红险作为主力 产品更加畅销、银保渠道份额集中和总量增长仍然具有很大空间、险资作为耐心资本主力，目前资产结 构正受益于债券利率低位波动、股市慢牛的市场格局。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年12月5日 14:03，中证港股通非银行金融主题指数强势上涨2.60%，港股通非 银ETF(513750)上涨3.07%。拉长时间看，截至2025年12月4日，港股通非银ETF近半年累计上涨 19.52%。前十大权重股合计占比82.21%，其中权重股中国太保上涨6.75%，第一大权重股中国平安上涨 6.09%，中国人寿上涨4.71%，新华保险、中国人民保险集团等个股跟涨。 规模方面，截至2025年12月 ...

关注证券ETF（512880）机会，同类规模第一，非银金融超额收益确定性较高。 信达证券指出，非银金融行业当前估值偏低，牛市概率上升，业绩弹性较大。随着居民资金加速流 入，非银金融获得超额收益的确定性较高。监管机构鼓励ETF发展、上市公司市值管理及长期资金入 市，天然有利于金融板块，证券行业受益于牛市的Beta属性，业绩弹性可能更为显著。金融体系对房地 产下滑的冲击或已结束，银行等板块估值有望修复，非银金融作为牛市重要暗线，后续表现值得关注。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 注：数据来源：Wind，截至2025年12月1日，证券ETF规模为590.9亿元，在同类21只产品中排名第 一。如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector is under pressure due to overall market adjustments, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index [5] - Insurers are preparing for a positive outlook for the 2026 opening, with improvements in new policies and value rates, supported by stable long-term interest rates [6] - The brokerage sector continues to show high performance, with a focus on undervalued leading brokerages [5] Summary by Sections Insurance - The release of the "Guidelines for Expense Allocation of Life Insurance Products" aims to enhance expense management and improve shareholder value [6] - Insurers are expected to see growth in bank insurance channels and a shift towards dividend insurance, with new health insurance regulations likely increasing product ratios [6] - Long-term interest rates are stabilizing, and the cost of liabilities is expected to decrease, improving the overall profitability of insurers [6] Brokerage - CICC plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, aiming for economies of scale and improved shareholder returns [7] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is reported at 23.3 trillion, reflecting a decrease of 6.6% [7] - The brokerage sector is expected to see significant ROE expansion, with continued low valuations presenting strategic investment opportunities [7] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Life H, Ping An, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and others [8] - Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [8]

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the allocation of non-bank financial sector in active funds is 1.20%, which is underweight by 8.48 percentage points compared to the total market capitalization of the CSI 300 [1] - The securities sector allocation has slightly increased to 0.41%, but remains significantly underweight by 4.28 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [2] - The insurance sector's allocation has decreased from 0.75% at the end of Q2 to 0.61% at the end of Q3, underweight by 4.19 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [3] - The multi-financial sector shows a marginal improvement with an allocation of 0.18%, up by 0.04 percentage points [4] - The report suggests that the current low allocation to the non-bank sector presents a value opportunity, especially with the expected market activity and reforms [5] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector - The allocation in active funds is 1.20%, down by 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter, and underweight by 8.48 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [1] Securities Sector - The allocation is 0.41%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points, but still underweight by 4.28 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [2] - Notable increases in holdings for leading firms such as Huatai Securities and Citic Securities, with significant percentage increases in both share quantity and market value [2] Insurance Sector - The allocation decreased to 0.61%, down from 0.75%, underweight by 4.19 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [3] - Key stocks include China Ping An and China Life, with varying changes in shareholding and market value [3] Multi-Financial Sector - The allocation is 0.18%, showing a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points [4] - Significant increases in holdings for companies like Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing and Bohai Leasing [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for value in the non-bank financial sector due to its current underweight status and the anticipated market developments [5]