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202603保险客户资产配置月报:大类关注风险溢价,权益聚焦涨价线索
Orient Securities· 2026-03-12 03:24
Market Overview - The report emphasizes a focus on risk premium in major asset classes, with equities concentrating on risk appetite changes and commodities on supply-demand dynamics[2] - A-shares are currently influenced by risk preferences, with mid-cap blue chips expected to outperform in the near term[3][24] - The overall risk premium in global markets has increased due to Middle Eastern events, while domestic risk premiums remain stable but structurally differentiated[9] Commodity Insights - Commodity prices are affected by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, leading to increased volatility and potential price hikes in oil and chemical products[17][29] - Strategic metals are expected to outperform industrial metals due to heightened demand for strategic reserves amid ongoing conflicts[17] Bond Market Strategy - The report suggests a neutral stance on bonds, with a recommendation to slightly increase positions in mid-term bonds due to limited downside risk and ongoing policy expectations[5][21] - The annualized return for low-volatility strategies since 2025 is reported at 14.6%, while high-volatility strategies yield 17.5%[43] Industry Focus - The report highlights the importance of cyclical industries, particularly chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals, as key areas for investment due to rising price trends[4][28] - Agricultural prices are expected to rise due to increased costs of fertilizers and energy, with a focus on food security becoming more prominent[31] Risk Considerations - The report warns of potential extreme risk events that could disrupt market stability, including geopolitical tensions and the failure of quantitative models[6][60]
202603保险客户资产配置月报:大类关注风险溢价,权益聚焦涨价线索-20260312
Orient Securities· 2026-03-12 02:42
Market Overview - The A-share market is currently focused on changes in risk preference, with mid-cap blue chips expected to outperform[3] - Commodity prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, particularly due to geopolitical events in the Middle East[9] Investment Strategy - A slight increase in allocation to Chinese bonds is recommended, with a focus on risk evaluation models for stock and bond investments[5] - The report suggests a hedging strategy between U.S. stocks and gold due to the lack of new catalysts in the U.S. market[9] Sector Focus - Attention is drawn to price increases in cyclical sectors such as chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals, driven by strategic and alternative demand[4] - The report highlights that agricultural prices are on an upward trend, influenced by rising costs of fertilizers and energy[31] Risk Assessment - The overall risk premium in global markets is rising due to geopolitical tensions, while domestic risk premiums remain stable but show structural differentiation[9] - Extreme risk events could impact market outcomes, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing[6] Performance Metrics - The annualized returns for low-volatility and high-volatility strategies are 14.6% and 17.5%, respectively, indicating strong performance potential[43] - The report notes that industry strategies have outperformed benchmarks, with an annualized return of 47.8% since 2025[54]
—3月衍生品月报(2026/3):外部宏观与资金信号偏多,风险偏好有所修复-20260311
Huafu Securities· 2026-03-11 06:29
- The report discusses the activity levels of major stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) which stabilized in December 2025, saw a significant increase in January 2026, and a slight decline in February 2026[3][13] - The basis ratio for IF and IM contracts fluctuated around zero, indicating limited bearish forces and a neutral to optimistic market sentiment[3][23] - The 10-year treasury futures showed a slight fluctuation in February, with an implied yield of about 1.67%, lower than the spot treasury yield of about 1.8%[4][41] - The VIX index for major indices decreased in February, indicating a decline in expected future volatility[5][57] - The PCR indicator for SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices fluctuated at low levels in February, indicating a neutral market sentiment[5][66] - The long-term macro signal turned positive as the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.95%, below the 18-month average of about 4.21%, indicating a temporary easing of global interest rate pressures[6][75] - The RMB exchange rate has been appreciating since the second half of 2025, with the USDCNY falling from 7.19 to 6.86, maintaining a positive short-term capital signal[6][76] - The overall macro interest rate environment and exchange rate capital conditions point to an improvement in risk appetite, providing some support for the A-share market[6][77]
五矿期货早报|有色金属:有色金属日报-20260311
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The short - term probability of continued escalation of the Middle East war has decreased, risk preference has improved, and key mineral resource attributes provide emotional support. The TC remains at a low level, the copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, the downstream start - up rate continues to rise, and the pressure of copper inventory accumulation is reduced. The copper price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [2][3]. - **Aluminum**: The supply risk in the Middle East has not been eliminated, and the supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream has resumed work and production successively, and the increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio is expected to reduce the pressure of aluminum ingot accumulation. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong [5][6]. - **Lead**: Although there has been a large accumulation of lead ingots at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the declining smelting profit of smelting enterprises may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [8][9]. - **Zinc**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is relatively small. The oil price is still at a relatively high level, and there are inflation concerns in the market. After the interest - rate cut expectation is lowered, the non - ferrous metal trend is under pressure, and the zinc price has a risk of breaking downward. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range shock following the sector sentiment during the conflict [10][11]. - **Tin**: Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, it should also be noted that the supply - demand of tin ingots is marginally loose and the inventory has been rising steadily recently. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict may put pressure on risk assets, and the tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: In the medium term, the implementation of the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia and the steady rise of nickel ore prices support the upward shift of the nickel price center. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict leads to a decline in market risk preference. It is expected that the price will still operate in a shock. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [15][16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trump released a signal of easing the Iran situation, and the sentiment in the equity market improved. The lithium carbonate spot has not shown obvious looseness, and the industry has the willingness to stock up at low prices when the lithium price回调. The industrial - side drive is limited recently, and the futures position is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the probability of range fluctuation is high. The potential green - power transformation expectation may be beneficial to the pricing of lithium carbonate. Future attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm, the change of spot - market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market [18][19]. - **Alumina**: The increase in maintenance and the delay of production start - up drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The oversupply of the ore end continues, the premium of the disk leads to a high volume of warehouse - receipt registration, and the delivery pressure suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the potential drivers, such as the production - reduction action of Guinea mines or the price - support action of the Guinea government, and the implementation of the supply - contraction policy at the smelting end [21][22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market procurement atmosphere has warmed up, and some traders and downstream customers have carried out concentrated inquiries and restocking operations, boosting the phased increase in transactions. However, the actual purchases of downstream users are still relatively small, and most are still in the stage of preparing for resuming work, and the procurement willingness has not been significantly released. The overall transaction is mainly the resource transfer between traders. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a shock - upward pattern [24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost - end price of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong. After the festival, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises promotes the improvement of demand. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw - material supply, the short - term price is expected to remain strong [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Trump said that the war against Iran was basically over. The crude - oil price rose sharply and then fell back, and the copper price rebounded after reaching a low. The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.39% to $12,919/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 9,925 to 294,250 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased. The domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory increased slightly compared with last Thursday, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The spot discount of copper in the East China region narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of copper in the Guangdong region narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 1,100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term copper price is expected to rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price fluctuated widely, the cancelled warrants of LME aluminum increased significantly, and the aluminum price rose after opening low. The LME 3M aluminum contract rose 0.35% to $3,400/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,060 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 1.6 to 662,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.5 to 341,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, and the trading was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in the East China region narrowed to 120 yuan/ton, and downstream users mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 452,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased significantly, and the Cash/3M maintained a premium [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,350 - 3,500/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.48% to 16,665 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 120,800 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S lead rose 5 to $1,937/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, and the total position was 171,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,525 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,500 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton. The lead - ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 56,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 70 yuan/ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 284,900 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancelled warrants were 4,600 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 47.74 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 136.6 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.252, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 530.12 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 9 was 73,700 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons compared with March 5 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index rose 0.05% to 24,440 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 174,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S zinc rose 25 to $3,343/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, and the total position was 216,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,210 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 105 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 10 yuan/ton. The zinc - ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 78,400 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 105 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 85 yuan/ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 94,800 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancelled warrants were 7,700 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 28.21 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 59.61 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.065, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,889.63 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 9 was 218,300 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons compared with March 5 [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range shock following the sector sentiment during the conflict [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On March 10, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,770 yuan/ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased during the Spring Festival and recovered slowly after the festival. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin was tight due to the shortage of scrap supply, and the refined - tin output continued to be at a low level. On the demand side, although the emerging fields such as AI servers have an optimistic demand for tin, the industry as a whole is still in the transition period of resuming work after the festival, the start - up rate of most downstream factories is low, and the substantial demand has not been effectively reflected. The downstream willingness to receive goods is weak, and enterprises generally maintain the strategy of consuming their own inventory, with few new purchases [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 10, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 137,050 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 150 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day; the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,650 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $68.74/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $27.5/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, the price continued to rise, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,086 yuan/nickel point, a 2 - yuan decrease from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 158,994 yuan, a 3.33% increase from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,800 - 165,000 yuan, and the average price increased by 5,150 yuan (+3.34%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 - 162,000 yuan, and the average price increased by 3.30% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 163,000 yuan, a 1.20% increase from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 850 yuan [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the probability of range fluctuation is high. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 150,000 - 175,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2,852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 452,200 lots, a decrease of 71,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the spot price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,625 yuan/ton, with a discount of 214 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at 6 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 337,200 tons, the same as the previous trading day. At the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price increased by 2 dollars/ton to $57/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,225 yuan/ton, a 0.85% increase (+120) on the day, and the unilateral position was 160,500 lots, a decrease of 13,647 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 14,250 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day; the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day; the Foshan basis was - 175 (- 70), and the Wuxi basis
金融市场流动性与监管动态周报:私募基金规模继续回升,外资成交持续活跃-20260310
CMS· 2026-03-10 12:32
Group 1 - The report indicates that private equity funds are expected to become a significant source of incremental capital in the market, benefiting small and mid-cap stocks [1][3][16] - The overall market growth value style is anticipated to become more balanced, with small and mid-cap stocks likely to outperform as risk appetite improves and financing capital returns [1][3][16] Group 2 - Public funds saw a slight increase in overall shares, with stock and mixed funds collectively rising by 147 million shares, while their net value decreased by 136 billion yuan [3][11] - The private equity securities investment fund's management scale reached 7.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 38.76%, contributing significantly to market liquidity [3][13] Group 3 - The report highlights that the market sentiment has weakened, with a rise in equity risk premiums and a decrease in financing trading activity [41][43] - The sectors that attracted significant net inflows included oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and transportation, while sectors like electronics and computing experienced substantial net outflows [51][52]
北交所策略周报:中东局势影响风险偏好,两会召开强调扩内需-20260308
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-08 11:08
Group 1 - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is affecting risk appetite, with the ongoing tensions leading to a rise in oil prices, which in turn raises concerns about global demand and interest rates [9][10] - The North Exchange 50 index fell by 7.14%, while the average daily trading volume increased by 32% compared to the previous week [9][13] - The report indicates that the energy and chemical sectors, as well as military industries, are expected to perform well, while technology sectors such as commercial aerospace, computing power, and semiconductors are also highlighted for their potential [10][9] Group 2 - This week, two new stocks were listed on the North Exchange: Haifiman and Tongling Technology, with significant first-day gains of 170.42% and 41.42% respectively [24][25] - The report notes that there are currently 297 companies listed on the North Exchange as of March 6, 2026 [24] - The report provides insights into the performance of individual stocks, with notable gainers including Teris and Keli Co., while stocks like Liancheng CNC and Liujin Technology faced declines [34][39] Group 3 - The report mentions that the North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 91.21 times, with a median of 45.77 times, indicating a decrease in valuation metrics [15][18] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.339 billion shares, reflecting an increase of 83.03% week-on-week, while the total trading value was 118.436 billion yuan, up 64.89% [21][22] - The report also notes that the margin financing balance decreased by 148 million yuan to 8.39 billion yuan [22]
202603银行客户资产配置月报:避险交易走弱,风险评价分化-20260307
Orient Securities· 2026-03-07 09:31
Group 1: Financial Performance - In February, mixed, equity, and fixed-income bank wealth management products recorded positive returns, with equity products performing the best, increasing by 0.15%[11] - The latest data shows a decrease of 2.21% in the scale of equity bank wealth management products, while cash management and fixed-income products saw increases of 0.12% and 0.31% respectively[15] - The scale of commodity and financial derivative bank wealth management products decreased by 11.39%[15] Group 2: Market Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict is a key factor affecting global asset prices, suppressing risk appetite in the short term[28] - Domestic policies are shifting towards promoting economic rebalancing and high-quality development, which may lead to a continued decline in China's economic risk evaluation[32] - A-shares are currently under pressure from geopolitical factors, but mid-cap blue chips are relatively favored[48] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The recommendation includes a slight increase in positions in mid-term bonds and gold, with a focus on risk preference and evaluation impacts on asset prices[5] - The dynamic all-weather strategy has shown an annualized return of 5.7% since 2025, outperforming traditional strategies[51] - The mid-wave strategy suggests increasing positions in mid-term bonds, gold, and US stocks, with an annualized return of 10.9%[59] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events, such as geopolitical tensions, may disrupt historical patterns and affect market outcomes[72] - The potential for quantitative models to fail poses a risk to predictions regarding asset prices and market behavior[72]
资产配置月报202603:商品聚焦供需变化,权益关注风险偏好-20260304
Orient Securities· 2026-03-04 09:15
Market Overview - In March, the asset allocation strategy focuses on commodity supply and demand changes, while equity investments are influenced by risk appetite[3] - Domestic stocks are expected to remain volatile, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips and sectors like resources, manufacturing, and agriculture showing marginal benefits[7] - The bond market is neutral, with recent trading influenced by policy expectations and supply fluctuations, while inflation recovery and monetary policy are key concerns[7] Commodity Insights - The geopolitical situation, particularly the US-Iran conflict, is impacting supply stability and increasing demand for strategic reserves in commodities[15] - Gold prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by US real interest rates and global risk sentiment, with a potential for new highs this year[12] - Oil prices surged following the US-Iran conflict, affecting chemical product prices, but are likely to stabilize as tensions ease[15] Performance Metrics - The dynamic asset allocation strategy has achieved an annualized return of 6.7% since 2017, outperforming the static strategy which returned 6.1%[24] - The industry rotation strategy has delivered an impressive annualized return of 47.8% over the past 25 years, significantly higher than the benchmark indices[38] Investment Recommendations - For March, the asset allocation strategy suggests increasing positions in A-shares and mid-term bonds, while also adding gold and US stocks in the medium volatility strategy[7] - Recommended sectors include non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, telecommunications, and electronics for industry rotation strategies[41] - ETF strategies recommend increasing exposure to mid-term bonds, gold, and US stocks, with a focus on non-ferrous metals and chemicals[48]
碳酸锂日报:地缘不确定性压低风险偏好,碳酸锂回吐禁运溢价-20260304
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 08:06
Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 3, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped significantly to 150,860 yuan/ton, a 12.3% decline from March 2. The basis strengthened notably to 16,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 18,160 yuan from the previous day [1][63]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract shrank by 10.24% to 339,604 lots, while the trading volume expanded by 96.03% to 445,115 lots [1][64]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 3, the price of spodumene concentrate rose 5.91% to 19,075 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate stayed at 85.72%. Upstream lithium salt producers showed strong reluctance to sell, leading to a tight supply [2][65]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 2.34% and 4.72% respectively. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but the cumulative year-on-year sales decreased. Downstream material manufacturers' purchasing intention increased when prices fell, but overall, there was strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][65]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 100,093 physical tons, showing a decreasing trend. Although the warehouse receipt data was not updated, the inventory decline indicated a de - stocking trend [2][66]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The supply side is supported by lithium ore costs but limited by producers' reluctance to sell. The demand side is supported by the growth of new energy vehicle sales but restricted by cautious downstream purchasing. The continuous decline in inventory eases the oversupply pressure. The overall market sentiment is bearish, but the low price may attract bargain - hunting [3][67].
美伊事件压制风偏,全球风险评价分化
Orient Securities· 2026-03-03 06:36
资产配置 | 定期报告 美伊事件压制风偏,全球风险评价分化 20260302 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号:S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号:S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号:S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | | 地缘扰动和关税博弈强化中盘蓝筹涨价逻 | 2026-02-26 | | --- | --- | | 辑:20260222A 股风格及行业配置周报 | | | 海外地缘和降息节奏彰显国内风险评价下 | 2026-02-25 | | 行:20260222 多资产配置周报 | | | 前期热点波动上行,中盘蓝筹风险可控: | 2026-0 ...