人民财讯12月23日电，华泰证券研报称，上周，随着美国经济数据与日央行加息等关键事件落地，市场 先前担忧的不确定性基本已成过去式，全球流动性预期有所改善、风险偏好有所回暖——全球股市走出 先抑后扬的修复行情，商品市场中金属品类表现突出。不过临近年底考核，机构投资者情绪仍相对谨 慎，上周AH市场整体呈现缩量格局，且择时模型对大盘维持震荡判断。依然维持"轻指数、重结构"的 观点，建议逢低着眼春季躁动行情的左侧布局。方向上推荐：(1)行业层面：贵金属、汽车、计算机、 传媒、房地产；(2)风格层面：看好小盘风格，建议规避高位大盘股，优先从低位板块中寻找机会。 ...

贱金属在亚洲交易时段上涨。。伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜合约上涨0.3%，至每吨11,913.00美元，同 时镍价上涨0.9%，锌价上涨0.3%。苏克敦金融分析师在一份报告中称，美国通胀数据走软，强化了市 场对美联储明年将采取更宽松政策路径的预期，从而提振了整体风险偏好。他们预计，资金轮动仍将是 整个贱金属板块的一个关键驱动因素，尤其是在对铜和锌的直接买兴停滞的情况下。"铅和镍等仓位不 足的金属，可能会在下周初继续吸引市场的持续兴趣，"他们表示。 ...

前段时间，由于美联储的降息等因素，一度驱动着各路资金对年底的全球资本市场的流动性宽松寄予了 厚望。但从本周以来的走势来看，流动性宽松的预期基础似乎正在瓦解。比如说美国联储隔夜逆回购 （ONRRP）余额仍处于枯竭状态，上周五只有8亿美元左右，这是美元短线流动性的蓄水池，也是全球 流动性的总蓄水池。因此，这个指标不佳，往往意味着美元流动性收紧，也意味着全球流动性收紧。 因此，这可能既是美股在近期再度疲态的诱因之一，也是周二亚太股市继续调整的诱因之一。如此就使 得A股市场各路资金再度重新评估全球流动性，随之也在重构风险偏好，毕竟在前段时间的风险偏好主 要是建立在美联储降息后全球流动性宽松的基础之上。 来源：智通财经 周二A股市场出现了弱势态势。其中，周一相对强硬的资源主线、核聚变板块等强势股出现了补跌态 势，从而挫伤了市场补仓意愿，主要股指相继走低。不过，人民币汇率仍然坚挺，这与以A股、港股为 代表的人民币资产的疲态走势形成背离态势，这或将说明A股后续调整空间不宜过于夸大。 重构风险偏好 与此同时，A股自身的风险偏好似乎也在重构。在前段时间，因为逆周期调整、去库存等表述一度让市 场参与者对未来的稳增长措施有了新的期 ...

资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——资产配置全球跟踪 2025 年 12 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 12/08-12/12，全球风险偏好明显降温，贵金属和部分新兴市场权益跑赢。A 股与中 债国债间负相关程度重回 0.5。COMEX 铜库存连续 40 周上涨。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭佼佼(分析师) | | | 021-38031042 | | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 成交活跃度升高，创业板指估值领涨 2025.12.13 资产概览：商品/权益上涨，中债熊陡 2025.12.09 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强 2025.12.09 融资资金延续流入，ETF 平稳回流 2025.12.08 成交活跃度走高，创业板指 ...

这不是教科书式的意外，这是市场的日常戏码，预期拉高以后，资金会选择兑现，尤其是那些从11月24日开始就探底回升、抱着美联储转向预期躺票的成长 股们，它们涨得够多了，谁还不想落袋为安？ 机构资金高度抱团在少数科技、新能源等前期强势板块轮动，其他板块却持续疲软，这种极致分化让指数难以形成普涨合力，哪怕外面有风，也只是吹到人 群的边沿，中心仍旧冷清。 谁不紧张？市场开始问，美联储会不会因为政治压力偏离控制通胀的目标？一旦这种信任受损，美债的"无风险"光环就会黯淡，美元体系的稳定性也会被打 问号，全球资本流向和风险偏好可能重构，这种不确定性短期内压过了降息带来的利好，难怪市场反应平淡。 别忘了，全球流动性不是美联储单枪匹马主导，日本那头也在归位，日本央行前官员甚至预测到2027年可能有四次加息，这意味着全球"便宜钱"的来源在收 紧，哪怕美联储放水，其他地方收紧也会部分抵消效果，亚太市场资金面面临压力，这个结构性变化比一两次政策动作更值得警惕。 再看基本面，美国科技公司甲骨文发布财报后股价盘后暴跌超11%，这事儿像一枚信号弹，炸开了人们对AI等前期热门板块泡沫的担忧，情绪通过全球市场 传导，迅速波及A股科技板块，说明哪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices (XAU/USD) are under pressure due to a slight rebound in the dollar and positive risk appetite, despite supportive factors from dovish Federal Reserve expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points and the expectation of only one more rate cut by 2026 have created a mixed sentiment in the market, with investors remaining cautious about future rate cuts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to provide a floor for gold prices, limiting aggressive bearish bets from traders [2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including weekly jobless claims and trade balance figures, which could provide new momentum for gold trading [3] - Short positions in gold should be cautious and wait for prices to break below the $4200 level before establishing new positions [4] - The gold bulls need to see sustained support above the $4245-$4250 supply zone for further upward movement, with potential resistance at $4277-$4278 and the $4300 level being key targets [6]

美联储关注的通胀指标核心PCE价格符合预估，巩固本周降息预期。万科寻求推迟兑付另一支本月到期 的境内债券，显示流动性压力与日剧增。中国周一将公布11月贸易数据，非美市场需求料推动出口恢复 增长。 本周将迎来美联储利率决策，连续第三次降息25个基点几无悬念。彭博调查显示，经济学家预计美联储 从明年3月起还将再降息两次。 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月8日上海黄金现货价格报价952.20元/克，相较于期货主力价格（958.70元/克）贴水6.5 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 【机构观点】 | 12月8日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 958.70 | 0.15% | 298231 | 197193 | 金瑞期货：上一个交易日贵金属价涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.36%报4227.7美元/盎司，COMEX白 银期货涨2.28%报58.8美元/盎司。近期公布的经济数据指向降息会继续，叠加多位联储官员发声支持12 月降息，市场预期再度转鸽，风险偏好回升利好金银。白银方面，目前现货紧张 ...

Core Insights - Recent on-chain data indicates that several metrics are approaching levels seen at the beginning of the bear market in early 2022, with significant pressure on top buyers and a rapid increase in the supply of Bitcoin at a loss [1][3] - The current Bitcoin trading environment is characterized as high-risk, necessitating heightened vigilance from investors [1] On-Chain Market Analysis - As of mid-November, Bitcoin's spot price has fallen to approximately $96,100, which is around the 0.75 percentile of the cost basis for top buyers, resulting in over 25% of Bitcoin supply being at a loss [1][3] - The conditions mirror those at the onset of the bear market in early 2022, suggesting that pressure on top buyers may lead to short-term sell-offs and increased market volatility [1] Off-Chain Market Dynamics - There are signs of weakening demand in the off-chain market, with a notable decline in investor risk appetite [2][4] - ETF fund flows have experienced a continuous outflow for six weeks, totaling over $2.7 billion, marking the longest negative outflow period since the launch of related ETF products in January 2024 [2][4] - Spot trading volumes are also declining, with Binance's cumulative volume difference remaining negative, and Coinbase's premium, although briefly positive, is expected to revert to negative territory [2][4] Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - Market participants are exhibiting a cautious stance in the options market, favoring selling call options rather than buying into potential price increases, indicating limited expectations for significant short-term gains [5] - Despite the pressures indicated by both on-chain and off-chain data, capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, with a monthly average inflow of approximately $8.69 billion, although this is significantly lower than the peak of $64.3 billion in the summer of 2025 [3][5] - Derivatives market data shows a decline in open interest and a neutral overall funding rate, with a notable cooling of funding rate premiums, suggesting a reduction in speculative behavior [5] Market Outlook - In the context of converging risk sentiment and stabilizing market structure, Bitcoin is likely to continue a range-bound pattern in the short term [3][5] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming key events, such as the forthcoming FOMC meeting, which may impact market dynamics [5]

预计下周美联储议息会议指引，市场重点关注中央经济工作会议在内需政策的结构力度上的表态，包括 财政、地产与消费政策的措辞等。由于本次利率决策分歧已经较大，预计如果12月降息符合当前市场预 期，而受制于通胀压力，美联储大概率会给偏鹰派指引，26Q1降息概率较低。2024年经济工作会议的 货币政策基调已经调为适度宽松，市场更关注2025年工作会议在财政、地产与消费政策的相关措辞是否 有新的指引。 来源：市场资讯 来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 本周市场持续缩量震荡，资金等待中央经济工作会议指引。保险优化风险因子要求，引导险资发挥耐心 资本优势，监管层提出对券商行业优质机构适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，这对资本市场与非银板块构 成利好。我们认为内需政策的结构力度尚待经济工作会议指引，未来一个阶段从保险、固收+等通道迎 来温和增量资金是大概率事件，短期战术上也不用过于激进，可以耐心等待逐步布局的机会。重点关 注：保险、券商、有色、海外算力、电网设备等。 保险长期股票持仓风险因子要求优化，优质券商有望适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限。此次风险因子下调 本质上降低了保险资金的资本占用，扩大了其在既有资本约束下的股票配置空间。差异化的长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension has led to a significant drop in bond prices, marking the first time in its history that such an extension has occurred, raising concerns about the company's financial stability and creditworthiness [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - Vanke's bond "22 Vanke MTN004," with a face value of 3% and a scale of 2 billion, has had its principal and interest payments postponed by one year, causing a collective plunge in Vanke's bonds [3]. - Following the announcement, several Vanke bonds experienced a single-day drop exceeding 20%, triggering temporary trading suspensions, with prices plummeting from around 90 yuan to approximately 20 yuan [4]. - Standard & Poor's downgraded Vanke's credit rating from "BB+" to "CCC-" due to the company's rising debt, which stood at approximately 320 billion yuan as of Q3 2023, alongside pressures from declining profits [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors initially perceived Vanke's bonds as stable investments but were suddenly confronted with the complexities of real estate cycles, local finances, policy directions, and credit support structures [5]. - The situation reflects a broader theme discussed by investor Howard Marks, highlighting the disconnect between perceived safety and actual risk in the market [5][6]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a shaky optimism, with investors feeling compelled to remain in the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - In the context of private credit markets, Marks emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous credit standards amidst a trend of lowered investment criteria by others [33][34]. - The discussion includes the potential for high-yield bonds and private credit to outperform cash, with current liquidity credit yields around 7%, though net returns may be lower after accounting for management fees and default risks [19][27]. - Marks warns that the increasing number of active private credit managers may limit the potential for excess returns, suggesting that the market is becoming more efficient [31][32].