Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 billion, marking the first increase since March [1][3]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $12.6 billion, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $48.7 billion [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors increasing by $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in US long-term securities was $192.3 billion, primarily driven by private foreign investors who net increased by $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Market Dynamics - A report from CICC suggests that if US stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into US Treasury bonds [2]. - The US economy is expected to slow down, which, combined with a reassessment of risk appetite and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, may rejuvenate demand for US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in the US in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in global risk appetite. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened, and the US President and Treasury Secretary have called for rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, economic growth slowed down, but policies such as personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies and the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce period may boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, the treasury bond may experience a high - level shock and correction, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Overseas**: The US CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, the core CPI annual rate reached a five - month high at 3.1%. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened. The US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. [2] - **Domestic**: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The trade deficit decreased, and the policy of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies may boost consumption. The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and domestic risk appetite continued to rise. [2] - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long position. The treasury bond is expected to experience a high - level shock and correction, with cautious observation. Different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious long or observation strategies. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as brain - computer interface, lithography machine, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market continued to rise. [3] - The economic growth in July slowed down, but policies may boost consumption, and the short - term macro - upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies, with a short - term cautious long position. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals fluctuated at a high level. The inflation data in the US in July was mixed, supporting the probability of a rate cut in September. The economic data continued to weaken, and the market expected a 94.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it pulls back to the support level. [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to rebound on Tuesday. The market risk appetite increased due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce. The actual demand continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The scope of production restrictions expanded, and the steel market was dominated by the macro - logic in the short term, with prices fluctuating strongly. [6] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to strengthen on Tuesday. The scope of production restrictions in the north expanded, and the iron ore supply decreased. The steel mills mainly replenished inventory on a need - basis. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6][7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Tuesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable, and the production in some regions increased. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [8] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Tuesday, driven by the expectation of supply tightening. The supply of soda ash increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. The demand support was weak, and the profit decreased. The upward space of soda ash is limited. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated within a range on Tuesday. The daily melting volume of glass remained stable. The market expected production cuts due to policies. The terminal demand was weak, and the profit decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and the risk appetite rebounded. The Fed's dovish stance was strengthened. The Comex copper inventory was at a high level, and the terminal demand faced the risk of weakening. [12] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of aluminum rose slightly on Tuesday, affected by the general rise in commodities and the sharp rise in alumina. The fundamentals of aluminum weakened, with inventory accumulation. The medium - term upward space is limited. [12] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants increased. The demand was weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [12] - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased slightly. The supply of ore was tight, but the reduction in refined tin production was lower than expected. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on Tuesday. The supply was affected by the suspension of a mine, and the market was bullish. The monthly supply - demand pattern changed from surplus to shortage. The trading margin and price limit were adjusted. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased on Tuesday. It was affected by the high price of polysilicon, cost factors, and market sentiment, and fluctuated strongly. [15][16] - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon rose on Tuesday. The increase in warehouse receipts reflected the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. The photovoltaic industry had expectations, and the price was supported by the spot price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [16] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market evaluated the impact of the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce and the potential impact of the US - Russia summit. The lack of major drivers led to a weak - oscillation pattern in oil prices. [17] - **Asphalt**: The cost of crude oil stabilized, and the asphalt price fluctuated slightly. The inventory removal was limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. [17][18] - **PX**: The PX price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA device had production cuts, and the PX device load was limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in the PTA device. [18] - **PTA**: The downstream filament planned to continue production cuts. The PTA basis increased slightly, and the demand was limited. The processing fee was low, and the supply pressure decreased. It is expected to balance supply and demand in August and oscillate within a range. [18] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increased slightly with the coal - based cost. The inventory pressure was still high, and the supply was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [19] - **Short Fiber**: The price of short fiber decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased. It is expected to be short - biased in the medium term. [20][21] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang fluctuated upward. The supply decreased, and the demand in the inland increased. The inventory in the port increased. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate. [21] - **PP**: The spot market of PP was sorted out narrowly. The cost - profit improved, the supply increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The price of the 09 contract may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is short - biased. [21] - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE increased. The supply pressure remained, and the demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - biased in the short term. [22] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 8 - month USDA soybean supply - demand adjustment was unexpectedly bullish. The expected harvest area of US soybeans decreased, the yield per acre increased, the export volume decreased, and the ending inventory decreased. The global ending inventory also decreased. [23] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans was expected to be stable, and the worry about supply contraction in the fourth quarter was relieved. The import of Canadian rapeseed may be blocked, and the domestic soybean meal substitution consumption is expected to increase. The price of domestic soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to rise further in the short term. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the port was high, and the supply contraction was expected. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation improved in the fourth quarter. The palm oil price was supported by factors such as inventory and import demand. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high, and attention should be paid to the supplementary increase of soybean oil. [24] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in Anhui and Xinjiang is expected to be sufficient in late August. The spot price is stable in August, and the basis is good, which has a certain stabilizing effect on the futures. [25][26] - **Pigs**: After consecutive price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The slaughter volume may decrease, and the supply pressure may be relieved after the Beginning of Autumn. The pig price may stabilize. [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tactical overweight stance on A-shares and US stocks is maintained, driven by improving market risk appetite and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][2] - The current low interest rate environment necessitates higher demands for asset allocation research, with a long-term trend of institutional capital entering the market supported by diverse investment tools [2] - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan has a year-to-date annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57, with a target allocation of 45% equities, 45% bonds, and 10% commodities [2] Group 2 - The improvement in risk appetite is identified as a key factor influencing current tactical asset allocation, with multiple factors expected to support strong performance in equity assets [3] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) plan projects an annualized return of 55% by 2025, with a high Sharpe ratio of 1.65 from backtesting [3] - The August allocation recommendation suggests 55% in equities, 40% in bonds, and 5% in commodities, with a positive outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and a cautious stance on government bonds due to market pressures [3]

Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

报告导读： 我们认为市场后续表现将继续由风险偏好变化主导，当下风险资产具备更高的 战术性配置价值， 8 月维持对 A 股和美股的战术性超配观点。 8 月维持对 A 股与美股的战术性超配观点。 近期市场风险偏好改善持续主导大类资产定价，风险资产显著优于避险资产，权益＞商品＞债券。我们对经济景 气预期持续上修、国家高度支持资本市场发展、市场流动性稳定、风险偏好逐渐改善以及微观交易结构稳固优化的 A 股高度乐观。对经济衰退短期难以证实 且降息概率增加的美股相对乐观 。 当前低利率背景对资产配置研究提出了更高要求。在资本市场高质量发展的政策目标引导下，中长期资金入市成为长期趋势，多元化投资工具的不断丰富为多 资产配置策略提供了良好条件。 如果将资产比作食物的话，因子就像是食物中的营养元素，针对因子优化配置，相当于"穿透"食物，调配营养成分，从因子 角度出发进行配置可以做到真正意义上的风险分散。我们从宏观因子构建出发，通过分散宏观超预期风险，构建了科学均衡的 SAA （战略性资产配置）方案 （截至 7 月末年化收益率为 9.1% ，夏普比指标达到 1.57 ）。基于该方案与宏观经济假设，我们设定权益、债券、商品的战略基 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that expectations of liquidity easing are driving an increase in global market risk appetite, with strong performances in AH shares and US stocks, while bond market interest rates are declining [1] - Market attention is focused on three main clues: the impact of tariffs on US inflation, the potential reversal of the "Goldilocks" narrative due to a slowdown in US economic data, and the pricing window for domestic policy expectations [1] - Upcoming events such as the China-US tariff negotiations and the US July CPI data are highlighted as key focal points for the market [1] Group 2 - Global commodity prices are showing divergence, with gold and copper prices rebounding while crude oil is experiencing a pullback [1] - With the implementation of livelihood policies, consumer spending is expected to receive support [1] - Statements from Federal Reserve officials and inflation data will influence future interest rate and exchange rate trends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a resurgence in investor confidence, as evidenced by the two-margin balance surpassing 2 trillion yuan, a level not seen in nearly a decade [1][2][3] - The two-margin balance reached 20,002.59 billion yuan as of August 5, with a financing balance of 19,863.11 billion yuan and a margin trading balance of 139.48 billion yuan, marking a significant increase in market activity [1] - The increase in financing balance reflects a growing risk appetite among investors, with a notable rise in trading activity and a continuous increase in financing balance over the past six weeks [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market's trading volume has been robust, with daily financing purchases reaching 1,635.6 billion yuan, indicating sustained investor interest and market engagement [1] - The manufacturing, financial, and information transmission sectors have attracted the most capital, highlighting the areas of investor focus and potential growth [1] - Historical patterns suggest that rising two-margin balances often precede significant market uptrends, indicating a potential shift towards a more bullish market environment [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core View: The report analyzes the July stock index basis market. In the short - term, the risk preference in the futures market has declined, and the short - side power has increased marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, the index is expected to rise and the discount to converge this year, but the subsequent upward momentum may weaken, and the discount convergence may slow down [5][22] Group 2: Recent Basis Review - Market Trends: In July, the market revolved around domestic and overseas mainlines. Domestically, the "anti - involution" concept boosted the market, which then cooled down. Overseas, the US tariff negotiations affected the dollar index and domestic assets. The market sentiment was mainly optimistic, with high trading volume and continuous inflow of leveraged funds. Most broad - based indices had strong monthly lines, and small - and micro - cap stocks were still strong, while large - cap indices were dragged down by the banking sector [5][6] - Basis Changes: By July 31, 2025, the quarterly contract annualized basis rates of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 1.19%, - 2.02%, - 9.65%, and - 11.6% respectively. IH, IF, and IC were basically flat compared to the end of last month, and the IM discount slightly converged. The basis support weakened in July, and the basis turned down earlier than the index. The intraday 1 - minute frequency basis divergence among varieties increased, indicating a decline in risk preference [8][15] - Product - side Situation: Index - related products saw net outflows, with the scale of four broad - based index ETFs and A500ETF and index - enhanced products declining. The new issuance of index - enhanced products continued. The positions of private - equity neutral strategies increased, and the short - side power strengthened marginally. The CTA strategy maintained a relatively high net long position in stock index futures and was optimistic about the index and futures [17][18] - Strategy Performance: In July, the excess return of long - side substitution relative to the index was about 1%. The short - side hedging cost of IC and IM current - month contracts was lower than that of quarterly contracts by about 0.5%. The inter - period spread was affected by contract roll - over and declined at the end of the month [21] Group 3: Long - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM long - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 3.6%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and - 4.6% respectively [26] Group 4: Short - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM short - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 0.5%, - 0.3%, 2.0%, and - 0.1% respectively [33]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the overall financial market dynamics, particularly focusing on the bond and equity markets in the context of risk preferences and liquidity conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The current market is characterized by rising risk preferences, leading to an increase in stock prices and a decline in bond prices, contrary to expectations of decreased liquidity [1][4][12]. 2. **Profitability and Debt Trends**: Asset-side profitability remains stable at low levels, while the private sector's debt growth has been steady. There are no significant signs of economic downturn or substantial upturn [1][5]. 3. **Liquidity Conditions**: Financial liquidity peaked between July 4 and 8, followed by a contraction. A cautious approach is advised for future liquidity assessments [1][6]. 4. **Model Limitations**: Current models accurately track total funds but struggle with predicting changes in risk preferences, necessitating improvements for better forecasting [7][8]. 5. **Government Debt Trends**: A forecast indicates a unilateral decline in government debt growth in the coming months, which may hinder sustained upward trends in equity markets [2][13]. 6. **Market Behavior**: The stock and bond markets exhibit a "teeter-totter" effect, where rising stock prices coincide with falling bond prices, indicating a market driven by risk preferences rather than liquidity [12][15]. 7. **Impact of Policies**: The introduction of "anti-involution" policies has positively influenced market sentiment, correlating with rising commodity prices and equity markets [16][18]. 8. **Historical Context**: Comparisons are drawn between current economic conditions and past bubbles, highlighting a return to normal growth rates after periods of high growth [17]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations include focusing on bonds as a safer investment due to declining risk preferences, while also considering equity positions based on market sentiment [28][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt Growth Patterns**: The entity observed two rounds of debt growth in the real sector, primarily driven by government bond issuance, with private sector financing needs remaining low [10]. 2. **Market Overheating Indicators**: In overheated market conditions, rising stock prices typically lead to falling bond prices, signaling potential market corrections [14]. 3. **Investment Research Approaches**: Emphasis on the distinction between fundamental and non-fundamental research, with a recommendation for fundamental analysis in the current volatile environment [23][24]. 4. **Risk Management**: The importance of maintaining a cautious investment stance, including the potential for holding cash during unfavorable market conditions, is highlighted as a key strategy for long-term survival [30].