Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members in favor[29] - The economic growth forecast for this year was raised from 1.4% to 1.6%, while the unemployment rate forecast for next year was adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[31] - The dot plot indicates a divided view on future rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 members predicting three or more cuts this year, while one member forecasts a total cut of 150 basis points[41] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Current economic conditions support a "preventive" rate cut, characterized by weakening but not deteriorating employment and economic indicators[4] - The recession risk is low, with the NBER's recession probability at only 0.8%, significantly below historical averages[5] - The personal credit default rate has increased but remains manageable, indicating overall good health in household and banking sectors[4] Group 3: Market Implications - The preventive rate cut is expected to boost equity markets, particularly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors like real estate[6] - The dollar index may experience a slight rebound due to improved fundamentals, while the long-term interest rates may face upward pressure if employment improves or inflation remains high[7] - Domestic monetary policy remains focused internally, with limited necessity for the central bank to follow the Fed's rate cuts due to unclear demand-side improvements[28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve decided to implement a preventive interest rate cut of 25 basis points, indicating a shift in economic outlook and potential future monetary policy adjustments [2][23]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, which was in line with market expectations [23]. - The meeting statement highlighted an increase in downside risks to employment, removing previous affirmations of a robust labor market [24]. - Economic growth forecasts for the next two years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for next year was lowered, and inflation expectations were increased [25]. Group 2: Economic Context for Preventive Rate Cuts - The current economic situation supports a preventive rate cut, characterized by weakening but not deteriorating economic and employment conditions [4][10]. - Household financial conditions remain strong, with high-income consumer spending robust despite slowing income growth [11]. - Business confidence is improving, particularly in the AI sector, and commercial credit growth is on the rise, indicating resilience in corporate investment [11]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - The preventive rate cut is expected to positively impact U.S. equities, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, potentially leading to improved earnings expectations [6][14]. - U.S. Treasury yields may face limited downward movement due to already priced-in rate cut expectations, with potential for rebound if employment data improves or inflation remains elevated [6][14]. - The dollar index may experience slight rebounds as overseas currency hedging effects diminish, alongside improving fundamental expectations [6][15]. Group 4: Domestic Monetary Policy Considerations - Domestic monetary policy remains focused on internal factors, with the necessity for credit stimulus not strong given unclear demand-side improvements [7][22]. - The current strong equity market limits the central bank's ability to loosen monetary policy without risking excessive capital flow into non-productive areas [7][22]. - The optimal monetary policy choice remains inward-focused, with no immediate need to follow the Fed's rate cuts, as domestic economic cycles are stabilizing [7][22].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025 [1][8] - The FOMC statement highlighted the risks of slowing employment growth, removing previous language indicating a solid labor market, and introducing concerns about downside risks to employment [1][8] - Economic projections were adjusted, with GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being raised, while unemployment rates for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered [9][10] Group 2 - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating that there was no need for a significant reduction in rates and that future rate paths remain uncertain [2][13] - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate is still low, it has begun to rise, and employment growth is slowing due to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [2][13] - Inflation expectations were adjusted, with Powell suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary, although there are still concerns about persistent inflation risks [2][13] Group 3 - Market reactions included a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and mixed performance in the stock market, reflecting the cautious tone of Powell regarding future rate cuts [3][14] - Following the FOMC announcement, market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, with the probability of the federal funds rate reaching a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end rising to 79.9% [15][16] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. Soft landing scenario, predicting two more cuts this year and three in 2026, with a stable economic outlook [4][19] 2. Recession scenario, where significant economic deterioration could lead to a larger cut of 50 basis points [4][19] 3. High inflation scenario, where persistent high inflation would necessitate maintaining higher rates for a longer period [4][19] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most likely, while the probabilities for recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as lower [20]

周四（9月18日）亚市早盘时段，现货黄金于3660附近震荡，同时也是前一交易日收盘价（3659.79）附 近震荡。当地时间周三下午，美联储如期降息25个基点，却意外引发黄金市场的剧烈震荡。现货黄金价 格从盘中触及的纪录高位3707.35美元迅速回落，周三收跌0.8%至每盎司3659.79美元，跌幅近1%。这 一逆转涨势的背后，是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话被市场解读为"释放不确定性信号"，引发投资 者获利了结。黄金作为传统避险资产，今年迄今已累计上涨39%，本月涨幅更是逾6%，但鲍威尔的"逐 次会议决策"表态，让多头们开始审视是否该及时离场。 此次降息是制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)自12月以来的首次行动，将政策利率下调至 4.00%-4.25%区间。尽管美国总统特朗普周一呼吁 "更大幅度 "下调指标利率，但25个基点的降息幅度 仍在广泛预期之中。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在利率前景方面处于 "逐次会议做决定的状态"， 并将周三的举措定性为风险管理降息，还补充说他不认为有必要在利率方面迅速采取行动，这为美元提 供了一些支撑。这是美联储今年首次降息，此前自2024年三次降息后一直维持政策不变。在利 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1][2] - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with job growth weakening and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][8] - Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure, highlighting upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [5][12] Group 2 - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with similar upward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - Inflation pressures are expected to rise starting next year, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 [5][6] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, with slight downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [7][8] Group 3 - The updated dot plot shows significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for aggressive cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [10][13] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is committed to maintaining its independence from political influence, despite external pressures for more aggressive actions [12][14] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where further discussions on monetary policy will take place [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating this is a risk management move amid high inflation and weakening employment, seeking a balance between easing and caution [1] FOMC Statement and Economic Outlook - The rate cut marks a resumption of the easing cycle that was paused since December of the previous year, with some officials suggesting a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [2] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end, while another believes no cuts should occur this year [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been revised down to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2] Inflation Outlook - Inflation has risen and remains at a "slightly high" level, with the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 adjusted upward to 2.6% [3] Economic Growth Outlook - GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with a forecast of 1.8% for the end of 2028 [3] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - The rate cut is characterized as a risk management decision, with future rate adjustments to be made based on data, emphasizing the rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Recent inflation trends show an increase, with August's overall PCE expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE up by 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating upward inflation risks [4] - Economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with the pass-through of tariffs to consumers occurring but less than anticipated [4] - The Fed's commitment to its independence is reaffirmed, with Powell addressing the influence of individual voting members on rate decisions [4] - Market reactions included significant fluctuations in gold prices and movements in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields following the rate decision and Powell's comments [4] Latest Expectations - As of the report, interest rate futures are pricing in a potential reduction of 45 basis points this year and approximately 72 basis points next year, with a 13.3% probability of the Fed remaining unchanged in October [5]