Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by conflicting views: one advocating for more stimulus measures and the other indicating a strong but mature economic cycle [1] - Private sector spending is growing at the fastest rate in 20 years, suggesting that additional stimulus may not be necessary [2] - High inflation rates are stabilizing at a 30-year high, impacting the perception of nominal growth [2] Group 2 - The rapid investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could enhance productivity and extend the economic cycle, although there are risks of misallocation of funds [3] - Fiscal and monetary policies are not overly tight, with significant fiscal easing being implemented since 2010 [3] - Tariffs are causing macroeconomic fluctuations, but high nominal growth may continue to benefit risk assets [4] Group 3 - Inflation-driven growth may lead to rising interest rates, particularly if governments continue to accumulate deficits without addressing debt through high inflation [4] - The bond market may eventually require higher risk compensation for fiscal policies, potentially steepening the yield curve [4] - Investors should prepare for a shift from the current economic environment by diversifying portfolios and ensuring flexibility to capture investment opportunities [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

"超级央行周"来袭。 印尼、美国、加拿大、英国和日本等国家央行相继公布利率决议，备受投资者关注。虽然利率决策不 一，但是整体而言，全球货币政策正迈向宽松周期。 纽约联储前信贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨（Richard Roberts）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，美联储此 次降息或将是新一轮宽松周期的起点。不过，他强调，一旦降息持续至年底甚至明年，确实可能存在风 险。"我最担心的核心风险是通胀重新抬头并对经济造成严重冲击，导致那些已长期上涨的资产价格出 现大幅回撤。" 据新华社报道，美联储于17日宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%之间。这是 美联储2025年首次降息。 美联储此次降息尽管符合市场预期，但是关于降息原因市场仍讨论颇多。到底是基于经济数据的理性判 断还是特朗普政府施压的结果？罗伯茨对记者表示，答案是都有。一方面，劳动力市场出现疲软的迹 象；另一方面，美国总统特朗普对美联储施加压力，试图影响决策，并不断公开批评鲍威尔动作过慢。 罗伯茨补充道，未来美联储的货币政策仍将受到政治因素的影响。不过，全球货币政策仍将保持独立 性。"各央行仍会关注本地区核心数据，并据此行事。" 两个新 ...

据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要 显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年 12月以来的首次降息。利率决议公布之后，美股出现波动，纳指一度跌超1%。截至收盘，三大指数涨 跌不一，道指涨0.57%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500指数跌0.1%。 理查德·罗伯茨称，这是一场牛市，而且抬头低头皆为牛市。 罗伯茨认为，这是个非常有趣的市场，连风险资产也是值得关注的。他补充道，"若看到加密货币等资 产借此腾飞，也毫不意外。" 0:00 南方财经记者 施诗、杨雨莱 "一旦美联储开启降息周期，将向全球市场打开流动性水龙头，对风险资产是利好。"纽约联储银行前信 贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨(Richard Roberts)对南方财经记者表示。 ...

格隆汇9月18日｜欧洲数字财富管理公司Moneyfarm首席投资官Richard Flax表示，美联储降息可能提振 风险资产的短期市场情绪，股市预计将受益。这位投资总监指出，对于美国家庭和企业而言，本次降息 能带来适度缓解，但更广泛的政策信号是保持谨慎而非转向快速宽松。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25% is seen as a preventive measure, aligning with market expectations and potentially benefiting various asset classes, particularly in China [2][4][13]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, gold prices experienced a temporary pullback, while major Chinese stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, rose over 0.5% [2]. - Key sectors like semiconductors, communication equipment, and chips led the gains, while gold and jewelry stocks saw declines, with some individual stocks dropping over 4% [2]. Investment Opportunities - Multiple institutions suggest that the rate cut opens up opportunities in Chinese equities, bonds, and the renminbi, with a particular emphasis on Hong Kong's core assets [4][9][13]. - The potential for synchronized monetary easing between the U.S. and China could attract foreign capital into Hong Kong stocks [4]. Asset Class Performance - Risk assets are expected to perform well in a mild rate-cutting environment, while gold may face mixed results due to differing market conditions [5]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the rate cut is likely to benefit Chinese assets, with expectations of further monetary easing in China following the Fed's actions [9][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - Investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with significant foreign investment, companies with substantial dollar-denominated debt, and industries poised for growth such as technology and renewable energy [10]. - The focus is also on sectors that are less affected by trade uncertainties and currency fluctuations, such as home appliances and engineering machinery [10]. Long-Term Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to support corporate earnings, particularly in the U.S. stock market, while the bond market may see a flattening yield curve [16][17]. - The overall liquidity improvement is expected to benefit long-term assets, although caution is advised regarding potential market volatility due to high valuations [17].

Group 1 - The current Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is expected to be deeper and longer compared to previous cycles due to weak economic conditions, leading to a trend of opportunities in the market [1] - Global liquidity is anticipated to remain ample, benefiting risk assets, including A-shares and H-shares in the stock markets [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit in the short term from a shift in global liquidity and a domestic profit turning point, with scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises becoming key investment themes [1] Group 2 - In the context of the interest rate cut cycle, A-shares are likely to exhibit a structural bull market focused on small-cap growth stocks, with technology stocks poised to benefit from the revaluation of RMB assets during a weak dollar cycle [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货涨跌互现，黑色系普遍上涨 ——中信期货晨报20250917 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 228/210/172 0/0/0 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | ...

在区块链术语中，Layer 1指的是底层基础设施(主链)，而Layer 2指的是一系列构建在Layer 1之上的链下 系统或独立区块链。花旗假设，只有30%的二层活动对以太坊的价值有贡献，使当前价格高于其基于活 动的模型估值，主要原因可能是强劲的资金流入以及围绕代币化和稳定币的热情。 花旗指出，尽管以太坊ETF资金流入规模小于比特币，但其单位资金的价格影响更大。不过，考虑到以 太坊的市值更小、在新投资者中知名度更低，花旗预计以太坊ETF资金流入仍将有限。 花旗分析师认为，宏观层面的支撑作用有限。此外，由于标普500指数已接近该行的6,600点目标点位， 分析师预计风险资产不会出现明显的上涨。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗集团更新了其预测，预计在基准情景下，以太坊到今年年底将跌至4300美元， 低于当前的4515美元。不过，该行同时预测，在牛市情景下以太坊将涨至6400美元，在熊市情景下则将 跌至2200美元。 花旗分析师表示，网络活动仍是以太币价值的关键驱动因素，但近期的大部分增长发生在二层网络 (layer-2)，而这些价值向以太坊主链的"传导效应"尚不明确。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is impacting dollar credit and enhancing risks in global dollar liquidity, leading to increased trading in safe-haven assets and pressure on risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Emerging market equity assets are entering a phase of chip digestion, characterized by high selling and low buying [1] - There is a phase shift in funds towards low-growth events and left-side trading elasticity in consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Potential short-term elasticity may be observed in sectors such as solid-state batteries, media, gaming, and travel [1]