Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Trump administration is threatening to impose a 200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals, with a timeline for companies to adjust of about one to one and a half years [2][3] - The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) opposes the tariffs, stating that every dollar spent on tariffs cannot be invested in U.S. manufacturing or future treatments [3] - Analysts believe that the announcement may have a positive impact on the pharmaceutical sector, as the tariffs are not expected to be implemented immediately and their future enforcement remains uncertain [2] Group 2: Copper Industry - Trump is considering a 50% additional tax on imported copper, although no specific implementation date has been provided [3][4] - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices surged over 10%, reaching a historical high in the New York market, with futures rising 13.12%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989 [3][4] - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with nearly half of its copper supply coming from abroad, primarily from Chile [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, is currently engaged in negotiations regarding reciprocal tariffs and is awaiting developments related to Section 232 [1] Group 1 - The ongoing discussions focus on establishing equal tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners [1] - The outcome of these negotiations may have significant implications for trade policies and economic relations [1] - The reference to Section 232 indicates potential adjustments in tariffs related to national security concerns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary, and a series of trade agreements are expected to be reached in the coming week [1] - There is a possibility of restoring tariffs to the levels seen on April 2 if trade partners "refuse to compromise" [1] - Ongoing negotiations are focused on reciprocal tariffs, with attention on the Section 232 provisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, announced that an analysis under Section 232 regarding aircraft will be conducted by the end of the month [1] Group 1 - The analysis will focus on the impact of foreign aircraft on national security [1] - This move indicates a potential shift in trade policy concerning the aerospace industry [1] - The outcome of the analysis could lead to tariffs or other trade measures affecting aircraft imports [1]

Group 1: Legal and Trade Policy Implications - The U.S. International Trade Court overturned Trump's equal tariff measures, stating they exceeded the authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1] - The ruling questions the legality of tariffs including a 10% base tariff and equal tariffs, potentially leading to their cancellation, but does not affect tariffs based on Section 232 and Section 301 [2] - The court mandated that the administration cease the collection of related tariffs within 10 days, but did not require the refund of already collected tariffs [2] Group 2: Future Tariff Strategies - The ruling increases uncertainty in tariff policies, but the Trump administration may still impose tariffs using alternative legal frameworks such as Section 122, which allows temporary tariffs up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days [3] - Section 232 allows tariffs if imports threaten national security, but requires a cumbersome investigation process by the Department of Commerce [3] - Section 301 has not seen new tariffs this year, likely due to existing tariffs still in effect and limited room for additional tariffs under the Biden administration [3] Group 3: Market and Negotiation Impact - The court's decision limits the Trump administration's ability to impose tariffs, weakening its position in trade negotiations [4] - A potential strategy for the Trump administration could involve short-term tariffs under Section 122 to gain time for further investigations and legislation regarding specific industry tariffs [4] - Risks include uncertainty in higher court rulings and the fluctuating nature of trade negotiations [4]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation against China until August 31, originally set to expire on May 31. China has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the U.S. over Section 301 tariffs, which violate WTO rules, disrupt international trade, and burden U.S. businesses and consumers [2] - Goldman Sachs' commodities research team said the U.S. is investigating copper imports under Section 232 and has doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, increasing the likelihood of copper import tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 aluminum price forecast by $140/ton to $2280/ton, expecting it to drop to $2100/ton in early 2026 and reach $2230/ton and $2500/ton in 2026 and 2027 respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised 2.7%, the smallest increase in over four years. The "super core inflation indicator" also hit a four-year low. Traders still bet on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 ppts month-on-month; non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 ppt; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 ppts. New export and import order indices rose 2.8 and 3.7 ppts respectively. Some U.S.-related enterprises reported improved foreign trade [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The eight OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide August production policy [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, soybean oil, hot-rolled coils [4] - Sector percentage changes: non-metallic building materials 2.71%, precious metals 30.65%, oilseeds and fats 11.88%, soft commodities 2.44%, non-ferrous metals 19.05%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.59%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 12.83%, grains 1.58%, agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [4] 3. Sector Positions - Information about the recent five-day changes in commodity futures sector positions is presented, but specific numerical changes are not clearly stated [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% daily, with a monthly change of 0.00% and an annual change of -0.13%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performances [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual changes [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., showed various changes [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had corresponding changes [7]

Group 1 - The Trump administration insists that tariff policies will continue despite court setbacks, with plans to appeal to the Supreme Court if necessary [1][2] - The administration is considering alternative legal powers, including Sections 232 and 301, to implement tariffs if the appeal fails [2][3] - The use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has been a key strategy for imposing tariffs, allowing the president to bypass Congress [2][3] Group 2 - The White House warns other nations that the president retains other tariff powers, such as Section 232, to protect U.S. interests [3] - The administration is not currently planning to initiate new Section 232 investigations but emphasizes the availability of other legal powers [3][4] - Trump has previously utilized Section 232 powers to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, with ongoing investigations for additional tariffs on various products [2][3] Group 3 - Trump has publicly discussed the possibility of submitting his tariff plans to Congress, although this could complicate his agenda given the narrow Republican control [4] - The administration is expected to outline its response to recent tariff rulings in the coming days [4]

白宫新闻秘书莱维特：特朗普保留了232条款等权力。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the White House is optimistic about overturning the recent court ruling that blocked Trump's tariff policy, indicating that there are various options available for the government regarding tariffs [1][2] - White House economic advisor Hassett mentioned that minor issues arising from the court's decision should not be a concern and will not affect ongoing trade negotiations, with expectations of more agreements in the coming weeks [2] - Goldman Sachs reported that the Trump administration may utilize alternative provisions such as Section 122, Section 338, and Section 232 as substitutes for the blocked tariffs, although these options face stricter congressional or court scrutiny and longer implementation timelines [3] Group 2 - The article highlights that three trade agreements are already prepared and awaiting Trump's decision, with more agreements anticipated in the near future [2] - Goldman Sachs also noted that it is unlikely for the government to complete Section 301 investigations for every trade partner in the coming months, especially if the court ruling on IEEPA tariffs remains in effect [3]

当 美国国际贸易 法院 一纸裁决叫停了"对等关税"，特朗普可能搬出"替代法案 "来继续加征关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间5月28日， 美国国际贸易 法院阻止了美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权 ，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征 收全面关税。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新的报告中分析表示，美法院叫停只是"Nothingburger"（无关紧要的小事），预计特朗普政府可能动用122条款征税，为后续启 动一系列301条款调查争取时间，338条款以及232条款也在考虑范围内。 "绕开"裁决或赢得上诉可行性几何？ 美法院发布裁决后，白宫迅速强硬回应，称将动用"行政权力的每一杠杆"反击这一"未经选举的法官"的裁决。 "绕开"裁决或赢得上诉可行性几何？ 高盛表示，鉴于美法院要求在10天内停止征收关税，特朗普政府在这么短的期限内赢得上诉的可能性不大。 不过，中泰策略认为， 在美国司法权力受钳制的背景下，特朗普政府可以一定程度"绕开"裁决： 5月22日，特朗普政府推动了"大而美减税法案"，以215票对214票的微弱优势在美国众议院通过。这一法案推出的背后反映的是美国"三权分立"的 宪政体制的受到挑战。在该法 ...