Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.18%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.18%, down 0.05 percentage points from May, and the demand index remains flat at 49.93%[7] - The ELI index is at -1.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] Industrial Production - Major industries' operating rates in June show a seasonal decline, but overall performance is better than the same period last year[7] - The operating rate for PTA is recorded at 83.25%, up 4.62 percentage points from the previous week, and the steel furnace operating rate is at 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points[15] Exports - June exports are expected to show a slight decline, with key port cargo throughput down 7.95% week-on-week[32] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of June is at 5.4%, a significant improvement compared to May[32] Consumption - Weekly average sales of passenger cars are recorded at 42,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 6,825 units, but a month-on-month decrease of 12%[22] - The consumer price index for textiles shows a slight increase, with the Keqiao textile price index at 105.08 points, up 0.02 points from last week[22] Investment - The construction material prices continue to decline, with ordinary Portland cement priced at 302.20 yuan/ton, down 5.90 yuan from the previous week[26] - The land supply area in 100 major cities decreased by 20.84% week-on-week, while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.41%[26] Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan from last week, while Brent crude oil prices increased to $69.45 per barrel, up $4.07[38]

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production and Investment - The operating rate for major industries has shown a seasonal decline, but remains better than the same period last year, reflecting reduced tariff impacts[7] - Infrastructure investment continues to recover, with the operating rate for asphalt plants at 31.30%, up 3.60 percentage points from last year[26] - The sales area of commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 22.5% year-on-year in the first week of June[7] Export and Trade - The Shanghai container freight index increased by 167.64 points to 2240.35 points, indicating improved shipping demand[32] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 177.50 points to 1520.00 points, reflecting a recovery in maritime trade[32] - South Korea's export growth rate fell to -1.30%, a decline of 5.00 percentage points from April[32] Risks and Policy Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[48] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[48]

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry has decreased, with full steel tires at 63.47% and semi-steel tires at 73.86%, down 1.33 and 4.39 percentage points respectively[15] - The national high furnace operating rate is recorded at 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous week[15] Consumption Trends - Passenger car retail sales in May increased by 13% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10%[22] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.63 RMB/kg, down 0.11 RMB/kg from the previous week[38] Export Performance - The Shanghai container freight index rose to 2240.35 points, an increase of 167.64 points from the previous week[33] - The Baltic Dry Index averaged 1520.00 points, up 177.50 points from the previous week[33] Risks - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[48]

Economic Indicators - As of May 18, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first three weeks of May is 50.25%, down 0.10 percentage points from April, and the demand index is 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is 49.95%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.74%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Central Bank and Monetary Policy - As of April 30, 2025, the central bank's total balance sheet is 45.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 108.48 billion yuan from March 2025[13] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds decreased by 1823.5 billion yuan in April, bringing the total to 25.18 trillion yuan[14] - In April, the central bank increased support for the capital market by 3700 billion yuan, indicating a proactive stance to stabilize the market[14] Market Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars from May 1 to May 11 increased by 34% compared to the same period last month[7] - The container shipping price index for exports to the U.S. has shown significant improvement, with rates for the West and East coasts rising by 23.2% and 21.5% respectively as of May 16[7] - The construction sector is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025, with the asphalt working rate showing a notable recovery compared to last year[7] Risks and Outlook - There is a potential for a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term, which could impact market stability[46] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.39%, unchanged from last week, while the demand index is at 49.95%, also unchanged[1] - The monthly ECI supply index has increased by 0.11 percentage points from February, while the demand index has increased by 0.06 percentage points[5] - The overall economic growth for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed 5%[5] Investment and Financing - The ELI index is at -1.36%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decline in liquidity[8] - New loans in January-February totaled 6.14 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion RMB, but the net increase in loans to the real economy was 5.87 trillion RMB, up 548 billion RMB year-on-year[11] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans is approximately 3.3%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans is about 3.1%, down about 70 basis points[11] Consumption and Exports - Retail sales of passenger cars in March are expected to show significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 52%[19] - The global manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.6 in February, indicating a recovery in external demand, while South Korea's export growth increased from 0.5% in February to 2.9% in March[5] - China's export growth in March is anticipated to recover significantly due to a low base from the previous year[5] Risks and Policy Outlook - There is a risk of a "rush to export" in the short term, and the effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations[50] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[50]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.39%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.95%, up 0.02 percentage points[1] - The monthly ECI supply index increased by 0.11 percentage points from February, while the demand index rose by 0.06 percentage points[5] - The ECI investment index is at 50.02%, up 0.08 percentage points from February, indicating a slight recovery in investment activity[5] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.13%, down 0.42 percentage points from last week, suggesting a potential decrease in new loans for February[8] - New loans for February are expected to be between 1.0 to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 250 to 450 billion yuan[11] - Government bond net financing in February reached 1.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.0 trillion yuan, contributing to a projected social financing growth of around 2.6 trillion yuan[11] Industrial and Consumer Activity - The industrial production index shows a slight decline, with key industries experiencing mixed operational rates[13] - Passenger car retail sales in February reached 1.397 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%[20] - Infrastructure work volume has improved compared to last year, with significant growth in excavator sales, which rose by 99.4% year-on-year in February[5] Export and Inflation Insights - Port cargo throughput has shown a recovery, with a recorded increase of 2.15% in cargo volume from February 24 to March 2[30] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.83 yuan/kg, down 0.38 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in food prices[36] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $70.36 per barrel, down $3.15 from the previous week, reflecting a decrease in international commodity prices[36]