Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to June, while the demand index remained stable[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.03 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.90%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal recovery in loan demand[11] - New RMB loans are expected to be between CNY 1.80 trillion and CNY 2.0 trillion in June, slightly lower than the same period last year by CNY 0.28 trillion to CNY 0.13 trillion[14] - Government net financing reached CNY 1.41 trillion in June, an increase of CNY 0.7 trillion year-on-year, contributing to a projected social financing scale increase of CNY 3.6 trillion to CNY 3.8 trillion[14] Consumption and Production Insights - Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 15% year-on-year, improving from 13% in May[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending June 30 were 95,374 units, slightly down from the previous year[21] - The electricity load of coastal power plants averaged 82.71%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong industrial production[16] Export and Price Trends - The SCFI and CCFI indices for export container prices fell by 98.02 points and 26.35 points, respectively, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is CNY 20.38 per kg, showing a slight increase, while the price of key monitored vegetables is CNY 4.35 per kg, down slightly[37] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[46]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.16%, down 0.07 percentage points from May, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.97%, unchanged from May, while the consumption index is at 49.75%, also unchanged from May[7] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Passenger car retail sales have improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24% as of June 22, up from 20% earlier in the month[7] - Real estate sales area in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 17.8% as of June 28, worsening from a decline of 3.3% in May[7] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[37] Group 3: External Demand and Trade - Port cargo throughput growth is at 0.8% year-on-year as of June 22, down from 4.4% in May, indicating a reduction in export disturbances due to tariffs[7] - The SCFI index for container shipping rates is at 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous week[32] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] - The central bank's net monetary injection for the week is 106.72 billion yuan, following a reverse repurchase operation of 202.75 billion yuan[41]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.15%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.93%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.17%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from May, with the demand index also at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.96%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index has slightly increased to 49.76%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 8.6% as of June 21, indicating a weakening in market sentiment[7] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 20% year-on-year for the first half of June, showing improvement compared to the previous month[7] - The government plans to distribute 138 billion yuan in central funds for "trade-in" programs in the third and fourth quarters, which may support consumption in the long term[7] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.02%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[11] - A total of 4.17 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit will mature this month, with only 2.96 trillion yuan issued, suggesting ongoing financing pressure in the banking system[13] - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan through reverse repos to support liquidity ahead of the quarter-end[13] Risks and Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.18%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.18%, down 0.05 percentage points from May, and the demand index remains flat at 49.93%[7] - The ELI index is at -1.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] Industrial Production - Major industries' operating rates in June show a seasonal decline, but overall performance is better than the same period last year[7] - The operating rate for PTA is recorded at 83.25%, up 4.62 percentage points from the previous week, and the steel furnace operating rate is at 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points[15] Exports - June exports are expected to show a slight decline, with key port cargo throughput down 7.95% week-on-week[32] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of June is at 5.4%, a significant improvement compared to May[32] Consumption - Weekly average sales of passenger cars are recorded at 42,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 6,825 units, but a month-on-month decrease of 12%[22] - The consumer price index for textiles shows a slight increase, with the Keqiao textile price index at 105.08 points, up 0.02 points from last week[22] Investment - The construction material prices continue to decline, with ordinary Portland cement priced at 302.20 yuan/ton, down 5.90 yuan from the previous week[26] - The land supply area in 100 major cities decreased by 20.84% week-on-week, while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.41%[26] Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan from last week, while Brent crude oil prices increased to $69.45 per barrel, up $4.07[38]

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production and Investment - The operating rate for major industries has shown a seasonal decline, but remains better than the same period last year, reflecting reduced tariff impacts[7] - Infrastructure investment continues to recover, with the operating rate for asphalt plants at 31.30%, up 3.60 percentage points from last year[26] - The sales area of commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 22.5% year-on-year in the first week of June[7] Export and Trade - The Shanghai container freight index increased by 167.64 points to 2240.35 points, indicating improved shipping demand[32] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 177.50 points to 1520.00 points, reflecting a recovery in maritime trade[32] - South Korea's export growth rate fell to -1.30%, a decline of 5.00 percentage points from April[32] Risks and Policy Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[48] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[48]

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry has decreased, with full steel tires at 63.47% and semi-steel tires at 73.86%, down 1.33 and 4.39 percentage points respectively[15] - The national high furnace operating rate is recorded at 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous week[15] Consumption Trends - Passenger car retail sales in May increased by 13% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10%[22] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.63 RMB/kg, down 0.11 RMB/kg from the previous week[38] Export Performance - The Shanghai container freight index rose to 2240.35 points, an increase of 167.64 points from the previous week[33] - The Baltic Dry Index averaged 1520.00 points, up 177.50 points from the previous week[33] Risks - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[48]

Economic Indicators - As of May 18, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first three weeks of May is 50.25%, down 0.10 percentage points from April, and the demand index is 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is 49.95%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.74%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Central Bank and Monetary Policy - As of April 30, 2025, the central bank's total balance sheet is 45.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 108.48 billion yuan from March 2025[13] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds decreased by 1823.5 billion yuan in April, bringing the total to 25.18 trillion yuan[14] - In April, the central bank increased support for the capital market by 3700 billion yuan, indicating a proactive stance to stabilize the market[14] Market Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars from May 1 to May 11 increased by 34% compared to the same period last month[7] - The container shipping price index for exports to the U.S. has shown significant improvement, with rates for the West and East coasts rising by 23.2% and 21.5% respectively as of May 16[7] - The construction sector is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025, with the asphalt working rate showing a notable recovery compared to last year[7] Risks and Outlook - There is a potential for a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term, which could impact market stability[46] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.39%, unchanged from last week, while the demand index is at 49.95%, also unchanged[1] - The monthly ECI supply index has increased by 0.11 percentage points from February, while the demand index has increased by 0.06 percentage points[5] - The overall economic growth for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed 5%[5] Investment and Financing - The ELI index is at -1.36%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decline in liquidity[8] - New loans in January-February totaled 6.14 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion RMB, but the net increase in loans to the real economy was 5.87 trillion RMB, up 548 billion RMB year-on-year[11] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans is approximately 3.3%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans is about 3.1%, down about 70 basis points[11] Consumption and Exports - Retail sales of passenger cars in March are expected to show significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 52%[19] - The global manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.6 in February, indicating a recovery in external demand, while South Korea's export growth increased from 0.5% in February to 2.9% in March[5] - China's export growth in March is anticipated to recover significantly due to a low base from the previous year[5] Risks and Policy Outlook - There is a risk of a "rush to export" in the short term, and the effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations[50] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[50]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.39%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.95%, up 0.02 percentage points[1] - The monthly ECI supply index increased by 0.11 percentage points from February, while the demand index rose by 0.06 percentage points[5] - The ECI investment index is at 50.02%, up 0.08 percentage points from February, indicating a slight recovery in investment activity[5] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.13%, down 0.42 percentage points from last week, suggesting a potential decrease in new loans for February[8] - New loans for February are expected to be between 1.0 to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 250 to 450 billion yuan[11] - Government bond net financing in February reached 1.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.0 trillion yuan, contributing to a projected social financing growth of around 2.6 trillion yuan[11] Industrial and Consumer Activity - The industrial production index shows a slight decline, with key industries experiencing mixed operational rates[13] - Passenger car retail sales in February reached 1.397 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%[20] - Infrastructure work volume has improved compared to last year, with significant growth in excavator sales, which rose by 99.4% year-on-year in February[5] Export and Inflation Insights - Port cargo throughput has shown a recovery, with a recorded increase of 2.15% in cargo volume from February 24 to March 2[30] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.83 yuan/kg, down 0.38 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in food prices[36] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $70.36 per barrel, down $3.15 from the previous week, reflecting a decrease in international commodity prices[36]