期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铝周报 中长需求稳健增长，铝价只是阶段调整 20260118 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期现市场 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, using a 250-day high distance metric[11] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of January 16, 2026, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.60%, CSI 300 1.23%, CSI 500 0.20%, CSI 1000 1.49%, CSI 2000 1.77%, ChiNext Index 0.81%, and STAR 50 Index 1.63%[12][13] - The report identifies 1204 stocks that reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals industries[19] - The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the defense, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemical industries[19] - The report also tracks "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability[23][26] - The screening criteria for stable new high stocks include: at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months, top 20% in 250-day price change, and top 50% in price path smoothness and new high continuity metrics[26] - The report lists 50 stable new high stocks, with the highest numbers in the cyclical and technology sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and electronics industries[27]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, using a 250-day high distance metric[11] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of January 16, 2026, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.60%, CSI 300 1.23%, CSI 500 0.20%, CSI 1000 1.49%, CSI 2000 1.77%, ChiNext Index 0.81%, and STAR 50 Index 1.63%[12][13][15] - The report identifies 1204 stocks that reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals industries[19] - The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the defense, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemical industries[19] - The report also tracks "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability[23][26] - The screening criteria for stable new high stocks include: at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months, top 20% in 250-day price change, and top 50% in price path smoothness and new high continuity metrics[26] - This week's stable new high stocks include 50 stocks such as Asia Integration, Yuanjie Technology, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with the highest numbers in the cyclical and technology sectors[27][30]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of January 16, 2026, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.60%, CSI 300 1.23%, CSI 500 0.20%, CSI 1000 1.49%, CSI 2000 1.77%, ChiNext Index 0.81%, and STAR Market 1.63% [6][27] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, electronics, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, machinery, and home appliances are closest to their 250-day new highs, while food and beverage, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, real estate, and pharmaceuticals are further away [9][28] Group 2 - A total of 1,204 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most significant numbers in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors [2][15] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the defense, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemical industries, with respective proportions of 61.48%, 52.85%, and 36.00% [15][28] - The manufacturing and technology sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 388 and 372 stocks respectively, while the proportion of new high stocks in various indices is as follows: CSI 2000 22.95%, CSI 1000 24.10%, CSI 500 31.60%, CSI 300 24.00%, ChiNext Index 31.00%, and STAR Market 26.00% [17][28] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Yaxing Integration, Yuanjie Technology, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with the most stocks in the cyclical and technology sectors [3][22] - The cyclical sector has the highest number of new high stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry, while the technology sector has the most in the electronics industry [22][28]

Group 1 - The stock price of Guosheng Technology (603778) has experienced significant fluctuations, leading to regulatory intervention that restricts trading on certain accounts [1][4] - On January 15, Guosheng Technology's stock hit the daily limit down after a nearly 7-fold increase in price from October 14, 2025, to January 14, 2026 [2][3] - The surge in stock price is attributed to two major acquisitions aimed at entering the battery storage sector, with concerns raised about the high premium paid for these assets [2][8] Group 2 - The company announced a plan to acquire 100% of Fuyue Technology for 241 million yuan, which has raised questions about its sustainable profitability [6][11] - Guosheng Technology has faced continuous losses over the years, with revenues and net profits showing a declining trend despite a significant revenue increase in 2024 [6][7] - The acquisition of Fuyue Technology involves a high premium of over 11 times its net asset value, raising concerns about the potential for goodwill impairment [10][9] Group 3 - The company is relying on loans to finance the acquisitions, with the approval process for these loans still pending, adding uncertainty to the completion of the transactions [7][12] - The strategic shift towards battery storage and renewable energy is seen as a gamble, with the success of this new direction remaining uncertain [12]

Group 1 - The new energy sector is showing localized activity, with lithium battery electrolyte and power battery concepts leading in gains [1] - As of the midday close, the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index increased by 0.9%, the China Securities New Energy Index rose by 0.6%, the National Securities New Energy Battery Index went up by 0.1%, while the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index decreased by 0.4% [1][5] Group 2 - The index focuses on the energy storage sector, consisting of 50 companies involved in battery manufacturing, energy storage battery inverters, energy storage battery system integration, and battery temperature control and fire protection, which are expected to benefit from future energy development opportunities [3] - The photovoltaic ETF managed by E Fund tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which represents a strong future energy source and includes 50 representative companies across the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industry chain [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Technology (SH: 603778) has experienced a dramatic stock price surge, increasing nearly 8.6 times from a low of 3.23 yuan to 27.72 yuan within three and a half months, despite its underlying business performance being lackluster and consistently unprofitable [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Background and Business Transition - Guosheng Technology, formerly known as Qianjing Garden, transitioned into the photovoltaic sector in 2022, with a reported revenue of 1.98 billion yuan in 2022, which skyrocketed to 9.88 billion yuan in 2023 and is projected to reach 20.94 billion yuan in 2024, marking a tenfold increase over three years [4][5]. - The company has been adept at capitalizing on market trends, initially leveraging the photovoltaic boom to inflate its stock price, which tripled within three months after announcing its acquisition of Qianjing Garden [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite the revenue growth, Guosheng Technology has been operating at a loss, with losses of 68.88 million yuan in 2023, 106 million yuan in 2024, and an estimated 151 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][7]. - The company's photovoltaic business has a negative gross margin of 11.7%, indicating that it is selling products at a loss to maintain revenue [7]. Group 3: Market Manipulation and Stock Price Volatility - The stock price of Guosheng Technology has been subject to extreme volatility, with significant price increases driven by speculative trading rather than fundamental business performance [1][10]. - Following the announcement of new ventures into solid-state batteries and lithium battery components, the stock price surged again, despite the underlying projects being unproven and lacking substantial operational progress [10][11]. Group 4: Regulatory Attention and Investor Risks - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has taken notice of unusual trading behaviors related to Guosheng Technology, leading to the suspension of trading accounts for certain investors due to market manipulation concerns [16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing extreme enthusiasm, prompting regulatory measures to cool down the market, indicating a shift towards a "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" market, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on fundamentals rather than emotions [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Regulatory Response - On January 14, the exchange announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for financing from 80% to 100%, leading to an immediate market downturn [5]. - The regulatory stance is clear: the market can rise, but it should not be driven solely by emotions, and investors must return to fundamentals [6]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - The focus should be on identifying key sectors that are likely to perform well while avoiding those that may pose risks [7][8]. - The analysis will cover 13 high-interest sectors to provide insights on potential investment opportunities [9]. AI Computing Power - The rise of AI infrastructure is supported by increased investments from cloud vendors, with companies like "易中天" (New Yizhong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication) showing significant stock price increases [11]. - However, the current high valuations may be unsustainable, and without new positive developments, there is a risk of a bubble burst in this sector [11]. Space Computing Industry - The space computing industry is expected to emerge as a significant market, with technologies deploying data centers in space to address ground-based limitations [13][15]. - China's advancements in space computing are supported by government initiatives, with plans for a comprehensive deployment strategy by 2025 [17][18]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see differentiation by 2026, with industrial applications being the primary focus, while household robots remain underdeveloped [20][22]. - Companies like 优必选 (UBTECH) are ramping up production, with expectations of significant output increases in the coming years [22][23]. Semiconductor Equipment - Domestic wafer fabs are planning expansions to meet AI chip demand and enhance production capacity, which will benefit semiconductor equipment suppliers [25][26]. Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with multiple technological pathways being explored [28][30]. - China is making significant strides in fusion energy, with projects like EAST and BEST expected to lead to practical applications by 2027 [32][33]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a surge, driven by fears of missing out on investment opportunities, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth [41][42]. - China's satellite deployment is rapidly increasing, positioning the country as a major player in the global space race [44]. Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is expected to reach a turning point in 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments and improved fundamentals [47][51]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is likely to increase costs for exporters, benefiting larger firms with economies of scale [51][52]. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is seen as a safe haven during market volatility, with specific focus areas including media, service consumption, and premium goods like liquor [66][70]. - The overall consumer demand is expected to recover gradually, but structural changes may lead to a lack of strong support for broad-based growth [67]. Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown resilience despite fundamental pressures, with attractive dividend yields drawing in long-term investors [72][73]. - However, the sector is unlikely to lead the market due to its lower growth potential compared to technology and growth stocks [74]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector has outperformed banks, benefiting from stock market recovery and expected growth in both asset and liability sides [76]. - The aging population is likely to increase the importance of insurance companies in key areas like healthcare and retirement [76]. Brokerage Firms - Brokerage firms have seen strong earnings growth but face challenges in maintaining investor interest due to perceived volatility and lack of long-term growth [77].

Core Viewpoint - Changzhou Juhe New Materials Co., Ltd. (Juhe Materials) has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Huatai International and Jefferies as joint sponsors. The company ranks first in global sales revenue of photovoltaic conductive pastes among all manufacturers as of the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Juhe Materials is a research-driven advanced materials company based in China, established in 2015. The company has continuously invested in R&D to enhance its expertise in advanced materials, particularly in photovoltaic conductive pastes [4]. - The company's capabilities include the synthesis of inorganic and organic materials, formulation design, manufacturing processes, analysis, and application development, resulting in a diversified product portfolio [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Position - The core business of Juhe Materials involves the development and manufacturing of a comprehensive range of photovoltaic conductive paste products suitable for various photovoltaic cell structures, including TOPCon, PERC, HJT, and X-BC [1].

Core Viewpoint - Changzhou Juhe New Materials Co., Ltd. (Juhe Materials) has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Huatai International and Jefferies as joint sponsors. The company ranks first in global sales revenue of photovoltaic conductive pastes among all manufacturers as of the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Juhe Materials is a research-driven advanced materials company based in China, established in 2015. The company has continuously invested in R&D to enhance its expertise in advanced materials, particularly in photovoltaic conductive pastes [4]. - The company's capabilities include the synthesis of inorganic and organic materials, formulation design, manufacturing processes, analysis, and application development, resulting in a diversified product portfolio [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Position - The core business of Juhe Materials involves the development and manufacturing of a comprehensive range of photovoltaic conductive paste products suitable for various photovoltaic cell structures, including TOPCon, PERC, HJT, and X-BC [1].