· 2025 年 7 月 4 日 国都香港研究部 电话：852-34180288 网址：www.guodu.com.hk 每日投资策略 恒指收跌 151 点 两万四失而复得 恒指昨日高开 12 点，报 24234，升幅曾扩大至 47 点，高见 24269，但财新公布数据后，大市升势不保， 失守两万四关，更跌穿十天(现处 24000)及二十天线(处 24004)，跌幅扩大至 301 点，低见 23920，幸好 A 股向 好，大市跌幅亦收窄，两万四关、十天及二十天线都失 而复得。最终恒指收市跌 151 点或 0.6%，收造 24069， 国指跌 0.9%，报 8648；科指跌 0.7%，报 5233。全日成 交 2312.47 亿元，北水转净走 30.5 亿元。 蓝筹阿里巴巴(09988)挫 2.9%，造 106.2 元；腾讯 (00700)降 0.1%，造 501 元；美团(03690)降 2.5%，造 122.8 元；新东方(09901)挫 3%，造 40.6 元：小米(01810) 挫 3.4%，造 58.1 元，为表现最差蓝筹；九置(01997)全 日急升 6.9%，造 24.1 元，为升幅最大蓝筹。 内 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened slightly lower with the three major indices experiencing fluctuations and declines, while sectors such as computing power and steel showed activity [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both fell over 1% [2][3] - The bond market saw collective gains in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.07% [3][4] A-share Performance - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both decreased by 0.44% [1] - The banking sector in A-shares strengthened, with several banks reaching historical highs, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Beijing Bank [5][6] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index was reported at 23,736.89, down by 1.38%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 5,143.98, down by 1.71% [3] - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong, including Alibaba and Meituan, experienced declines, with Alibaba dropping by 2.54% [8][9] Sector Highlights - A-share computing power stocks saw a strong start, with Data Port hitting the daily limit and several other stocks rising significantly [10][11] - Steel stocks continued to perform well, with Liugang Co. achieving a four-day consecutive rise [12] - The photovoltaic sector remained active, with multiple stocks, including Yamaton and Yijing Photovoltaic, showing strong performance [13]

前言 经实现转正。 《金牌纪要库》是财联社VIP倾力打造的一款高端会议纪要类产品，结合财联社的媒体资源和行业圈层 优势，为投资者提供全面、深入的市场及行业洞察，以及专业分析和解读。 ①光伏行业"反内卷"规格提升，这个环节是本轮行业自律行动的核心焦点，一旦市场供需关系改善，这些 企业的盈利水平将展现出较大的向上弹性；②行业基本面有望在2025年年末出现拐点，这个细分领域头部 公司计划联合减产30%，这家公司整体盈利状况和抗风险能力显著高于竞争对手；③具有差异化+溢价能 力的核心技术，为企业摆脱主流产品的同质化价格战提供了有效途径，代表公司一季度经营活动现金流已 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指受制 24,700 點：中美在 5 月中旬於瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合 聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨 品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進口貨品將由 125%降至 10%， 為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅寬 限期過後能否取得長期協議。以伊停火，惟其後雙方是否遵循協議，仍有 待觀察。中美貿談續缺乏進展，內地現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大， 企業盈利改善有限，北水於高位流入速度放緩。恒指阻力料見於 24,700 點，相當於未來 12 個月預測市盈率 11 倍。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 ➢ 財新中國6月服務業PMI回落至50.6，遜預期； 內地6月新能源車零售增25%；商務部擬加強二手車出口工作指導； 暑假限玩遊戲27小時；工信部強調綜合治理光伏行業低價無序競爭； 畢馬威料今年新股集資額最多可達2,500億元； 港滙觸發弱方兌換保證，金管局兩度共接296億元沽盤； 美國6月非農職位增14.7萬個超預期， ...

Group 1 - The State Council has issued a notice to enhance the implementation of the Free Trade Pilot Zone strategy, aiming to align with international high-standard economic and trade rules and create a transparent and predictable institutional environment [1] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed a consistent stance on the U.S. President's planned visit to China, emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation to promote healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [2] - The Ministry of Commerce also reiterated its position on the trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, opposing any agreements that sacrifice China's interests and stating that China will take necessary countermeasures to protect its rights [3] Group 2 - The National Medical Products Administration has announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision of high-end medical devices, focusing on AI and brain-computer interface technologies [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address issues in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to strengthen guidance on the export of second-hand cars, promoting healthy and orderly development in this sector [7] Group 3 - Hualing Steel announced that Xintai Life Insurance has acquired a significant stake in the company through the secondary market [8] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and is extending part of its existing loans [9] - Changling Hydraulic announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of its stock [10] Group 4 - Huayin Electric expects to achieve a net profit of 180 to 220 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 175 to 215 million yuan compared to the same period last year [11] - Anglikon announced that a supervisor plans to reduce holdings of up to 159,000 shares, while other shareholders also plan to reduce their stakes [12]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting focusing on accelerating the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, with participation from 14 major companies and industry associations [1][2] - Key representatives included leaders from major companies such as Tongwei Group, GCL-Poly, and LONGi Green Energy, highlighting the importance of collaboration within the industry [1] - The meeting emphasized the achievements of the photovoltaic industry in China, noting its transformation from weak to strong, and its leading position in terms of scale, technology, and market application [1][2] Group 2 - The Minister stressed the need for a comprehensive understanding of the photovoltaic industry's development situation and the importance of maintaining confidence while addressing challenges [2] - There is a focus on eliminating low-price disorderly competition and promoting product quality, with an aim to achieve sustainable development in the industry [2][4] - The industry is facing complex challenges, including strong demand but pressured supply, declining prices, and the need to overcome "involution" competition to maintain a healthy development environment [3][4] Group 3 - Recent discussions have highlighted the need to break the cycle of "involution" competition, which has led to price wars and market distortion, negatively impacting high-quality development [4] - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting addressed the need for regulatory measures to guide enterprises towards improving product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [4]

智通财经APP获悉，7月3日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开第十五次制造业企业座谈 会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业协会情况介绍和意见建议。 李乐成强调，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质， 推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。 中原证券（601375）指出，多晶硅企业正在积极进行产能置换，用运行较为良好的小产线替换已经生产 的大产线，导致行业产量阶段小幅反弹。受前期检修装置恢复生产以及"430"、"531"抢装等因素影响， 光伏玻璃产能从底部攀升。展望后市，光伏组件抢装结束后装机需求再次回落，持续失血推动行业加速 落后产能淘汰。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，光伏产业链供给侧调整继续深化，多晶硅板块有望成为率先完成 调整的环节之一。硅料行业成本曲线相对陡峭，重资产环节开工率对边际成本影响较大，产能调整有望 率先完成，推动行业利润向头部企业集中。 光伏板块相关港股： 硅料：新特能源(01799)、协鑫科技(03800) 光伏玻璃：信义光能(00968)、福莱特（601865）玻璃(06865)、凯盛新能（6008 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 黄聪 进入光伏行业后，棒杰股份（002634.SZ）还没尝到甜头，就已陷入麻烦。 7月2日晚间，棒杰股份发布公告称，公司光伏板块子公司受外部经营环境承压、金融机构授信政策收紧 的影响，在金融机构累计逾期或提前到期的借款金额合计约9.67亿元，占上市公司2024年度经审计净资 产的322.51%。 棒杰股份表示，公司及子公司已就上述情况积极与银行等相关方沟通，计划通过留债展期、借新还旧、 调整还款计划等方式，逐步化解债务逾期问题。 值得注意的是，棒杰股份光伏业务主要由子公司棒杰新能源和扬州棒杰开展。其中，扬州棒杰自2024年 5月起进一步调整了生产策略，不断降低产能利用率，并于2025年3月1日起实施临时停工停产，至今已 有4个月时间。 拟通过借新还旧等方式化债 7月2日晚间，棒杰股份发布公告称，公司光伏板块子公司受外部经营环境承压、金融机构授信政策收紧 的影响，出现部分授信无法续作、被金融机构要求提前偿还的情况，导致短期债务压力较大，致使光伏 板块部分子公司出现未能按时履行部分债务偿还义务的情况。 截至2025年7月2日，棒杰股份光伏板块子公司在金融机构累计逾期或提前到期的借款金 ...

Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity for sustainable development [5] - The National Medical Products Administration has announced new measures to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, including guidance on the registration of products based on artificial intelligence and biomaterials [7] - The National Energy Administration held a meeting to emphasize the importance of resource survey pilot work for wind and photovoltaic power generation, aiming to enhance collaboration and accelerate progress [8] - The Ministry of Commerce is set to strengthen guidance on the export of second-hand vehicles, promoting healthy and orderly development in this sector [6] Company News - Hualing Steel announced that Xintai Life Insurance has acquired a stake in the company through the secondary market [9] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of no more than 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and extended part of its existing loans [10] - Aerospace Chengtong has restored its procurement qualifications for military material engineering services [11] - Haowang Bio announced that its HW130 injection has completed Phase I clinical trials [12] - Donghu High-tech is participating in the establishment of the Donggao Frontier Phase II Fund [13] - Nuotai Bio expects a year-on-year increase of 32% to 45% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year, driven by significant growth in sales of peptide raw materials [14] - Wealth Trend's actual controller and chairman plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [15] - Wankai New Materials announced that some production facilities will undergo maintenance, which is expected to significantly impact the company's overall performance [16] - Huaya Intelligent stated that it is engaged in the research and production of dry electrode rolling equipment systems for solid-state batteries [17] - Changling Hydraulic announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change of control, leading to a suspension of its stock [18] - China Power Construction signed a contract for a mining and transportation project in Guinea worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan [19]

如何看待硅料价格拐点及弹性？20250703 摘要 多晶硅行业自 2024 年 4 月起，价格已跌破行业平均成本，至 2025 年 7 月初，行业平均盈利水平已持续亏损一年，尽管工业硅降价带来成本 改善，但整体仍处于亏损状态。 硅料在光伏组件中的成本占比显著降低，2024 年底已降至 10%左右， 低于电池片浆料和组件封装环节的光伏玻璃成本占比。 多晶硅企业降本最具性价比的措施是降低能耗，其次是降低原材料消耗， 电力和原材料是主要成本来源，而硅耗的降本空间相对有限。 多晶硅产量随价格下跌而缓步下滑，自 2024 年 5 月起月产出环比下降， 2025 年二季度月均产出约 9.5 至 10 万吨，开工率不足 40%，库存超 过三个月，约 30 多万吨。 短期内全球光伏装机增速放缓，但长期需求广阔，新一轮高速增长周期 依赖电网改造和购网型储能普及，供需矛盾预计 2026 年改善，2027- 2028 年恢复合理水平。 多晶硅行业拐点关注指标包括各环节行业库存及落后产能出清，以及头 部企业资本开支和投产规划，头部企业大规模投放新产能通常预示行业 拐点临近。 测算显示，硅料价格上涨对组件价格和电站收益率的影响较小，即 ...