现货白银继续高歌猛进 日内涨超5% 2025-12-26 18:29 南方财经12月26日电，现货白银涨5%，报75.36美元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄金涨0.98%，报 4523.36美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货涨4.67%，报75.03美元/盎司。 相关快讯 相关文章 南方财经12月26日电，现货白银涨5%，报75.36美元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄金涨0.98%，报 4523.36美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货涨4.67%，报75.03美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant decline in the trading performance of various LOF funds, particularly the Guotai Silver LOF, which saw a drop of 9.99% in its value [2][5] - The trading volume for Guotai Silver LOF reached nearly 600 million yuan today, indicating a decrease compared to the previous day, suggesting growing concerns among investors [2] - The price of silver in the London market has surged, surpassing 75 USD, yet the enthusiasm for buying the silver LOF at the dip has diminished, indicating a more rational market behavior [4] Group 2 - Multiple LOF funds, especially those under the Guotai brand, experienced significant declines, with many hitting the daily limit down, reflecting a broader trend of panic selling among investors [5] - The premium rate for silver LOF remains high at approximately 30%, suggesting that investors are still paying a premium for the fund despite the recent price drop [7] - The announcement of a new subscription limit for the silver LOF at 100 yuan aims to reduce supply and potentially stabilize the market, indicating a strategic move by the company to control selling pressure [7]

今天（12月26日）早盘，商品市场再度上演"狂飙模式"。 在海外市场因圣诞节假期休市的背景下，国内贵金属与基本金属价格集体拉升，多个品种刷新历史纪录。 其中，广期所铂期货主力合约盘中触及涨停，沪银、沪铜强势上攻，铜价距离10万元/吨关口仅一步之遥。 铂、钯期货价格的快速上行，也再度引发交易所层面的风控"加码"。 在资金情绪与基本面共振之下，贵金属和基本金属不断改写历史纪录，成为市场关注的焦点。 有机构也提 醒，随着价格的快速拉升，贵金属市场短期波动风险显著放大。 铂期货封涨停，波动风险加大 12月26日，广期所铂期货主力合约开盘后迅速拉升，盘中触及涨停板，日内涨幅达9.99%，报709.85元/克，再 创上市以来新高。盘面显示，日内一度增仓约2800手，做多情绪依然高涨。 与此同时，国际现货铂金同步走强，价格上涨逾5%，至每盎司2333.85美元，内外盘联动明显。作为今年以来 表现最为抢眼的贵金属品种之一，铂金在供需偏紧、资金追逐以及贵金属整体走强的背景下，持续刷新市场对 其价格中枢的认知。 不过，随着价格快速拉升，波动风险也在显著放大。金瑞期货研究员吴梓杰指出，当前市场风险偏好处于高 位，价格波动不容忽视。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The macro environment has frequent catalysts, and precious metals continue to show strong performance. With the increase in market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may rise, and the price of gold is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. Silver's price is also expected to remain strong due to spot shortages, but the risk of historical high prices should be watched out for [1][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark during intraday trading for the first time in 15 months, reaching a maximum of 6.9985. The onshore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark, reaching a maximum of 7.0053. Israel's high - level officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran again. The Bank of Japan's governor said that it is steadily approaching the 2% inflation target and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is in line with expectations [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,013.94 yuan/gram, closed at 1,008.76 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it closed at 1,019.60 yuan/gram, up 1.07% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,630.00 yuan/kg, closed at 17,397.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,313,979 lots, and the open interest was 304,054 lots. In the night session, it closed at 18,131 yuan/kg, up 4.22% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 25, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.63%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 25, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 4,521 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 92 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 307,456 lots, a change of - 37.41% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, the long position decreased by 15,678 lots, and the short position decreased by 14,342 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 3,355,499 lots, a change of 1.64% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,068.27 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 25, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 615.93 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 28,920 kg, a change of - 48.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,128 kg, a change of - 50.32% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 31,890 kg [7].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors lead to early capital allocation, and the gold price has medium - to - long - term upward potential. In the context of continuous upward revisions of precious metal price forecasts by global mainstream institutions, some investors choose to pre - allocate precious metals, reflected in the continuous increase in ETF holdings and rising derivative positions. Without clear negative factors, the short - term market will remain in a relatively strong oscillation. Unilateral long positions should follow the idea of buying on dips [1]. - In the short term, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, weakening its driving force on the market. Coupled with the increase in domestic inventories, it may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to changes in the number of open interest contracts and warehouse receipt inventories, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures to prevent the risk of speculative long positions taking profits at high levels. However, high volatility continues to provide upward momentum to the price. The strategy suggests continuing to hold long positions, paying attention to the restoration of the domestic premium, and reducing positions or locking positions on rallies before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. Capital promotes value re - evaluation, and they are expected to continue to oscillate upward in the medium to long term. In the short term, in the domestic market, since the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures are in the early stage of listing, the overall position liquidity needs to be improved, and the domestic market shows a premium compared to the overseas market. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still face short - term correction risks. Palladium may continue to correct under weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong. One can buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1008.76 yuan/gram on December 25, down 5.92 yuan or 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 17397 yuan/ten grams on December 25, down 212 yuan or 1.20% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 686.05 yuan/gram on December 25, up 29.30 yuan or 4.46% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram on December 25, down 49.40 yuan or 8.54% from the previous day [1]. Overseas Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold's main contract closed at 4505.40 on December 24, down 9.60 or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver's main contract closed at 71.88 on December 24, up 0.27 or 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum's main contract closed at 2272.90 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 47.20 or - 2.03% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium's main contract closed at 1821.00 on December 24, down 143.00 or 7.28% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4479.39 on December 25, down 5.49 or 0.12% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 71.81 on December 25, up 0.40 or 0.56% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium remained unchanged at 2208.00 on December 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium remained unchanged at 1837.00 on December 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold TD was at 1003.01 yuan/gram on December 25, down 4.21 yuan or - 0.42% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver TD was at 17414 yuan/kilogram on December 25, down 300 yuan or - 1.69% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 591 yuan/gram on December 25, down 16 yuan or - 2.59% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold's main contract was - 5.75, up 1.71 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 6.80% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver's main contract was 17, down 88 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 95.90% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 26.01, up 4.11 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.06, up 0.14 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 70.10% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold to silver was 62.68, down 0.37 or - 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold to silver was 57.98, up 0.36 or 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX palladium to palladium was 1.25, up 0.07 or 5.66% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum to palladium was 1.30, up 0.16 or 14.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.03 or - 0.7% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, down 0.03 or - 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 97.91, down 0.05 or - 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.0010, down 0.0066 or - 0.09% from the previous day [1]. Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 93,711 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 852,417 kilograms, down 29,532 kilograms or - 3.35% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,159,361 ounces, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 451,352,686 ounces, up 472,620 ounces or 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,361,515 ounces, up 39,612 ounces or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 126,355,549 ounces, down 858,733 ounces or - 0.68% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,068 tons, up 3.71 tons or 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, down 56.40 tons or - 0.34% from the previous day [1].

中辉有色观点 基本逻辑：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及资金涌入共同催生了本轮的 银铂钯"疯涨"行情。但是短期黄金除外的其他品种面临高位波动风险 | | | | | 1 20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | S Colle | 11 11 11 | | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 政策真空，ETF 资金持续流入稳定增长的黄金，短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好 | | | 长线持有 | 尚可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 美元持续走弱，白银交割故事或将持续重演，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺 | | | 控制风险 | 口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比 | | ★★ | | 价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | | 铜 | | 外盘圣诞休市，国内走出独立行情，宏 ...

the first 1）行情回顾： 12月25日，沪金期货主力合约收跌0.39%至1008.76元/克，沪银期货主力合约收涨2.64%至17397元/千克。 行情殊词_2）影响因素分析：澳外进入圣诞假期，外盘休市，市场消息面嘉淡，黄金价格整体维持高位运行，自银则受到资金情绪助推，价格弹性进一步释放，沪银主力突 戏玩作品 i r800元/千克关口，再创历史新高。展望后市，贵金属价格短期科维持高位偏强运行，但目前白银呈现较为显著的加速上涨态势，场内杠杆风险继续累积，后续 群《个人 散火000元》中范文目，何创办奖机构》次至唐书，灵宝热分相组组的演绎风险。综合，背略：单边短期建现双形基 l3）中长期观点：中长期来看、美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步墙 加美元信用风险，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移，建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈科。国资新货力求准确可靠，但不对上达德息的准辟性及完整性收任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者特殊的设资目标、仅务 ...

二级市场的高溢价已引发监管与机构警惕。上海期货交易所于12月22日发布风险提示，对白银期货相关合约调整交易限额与手续 费。业内人士认为，当前溢价率不可持续，盲目追高的投资者可能同时承受白银价格回调与溢价收敛带来的"戴维斯双杀"。 白银价格上涨带动贵金属板块整体走强，传导至消费终端。有网友反映，用于婚嫁的铂金饰品在半月内由每克300多元涨至502 元，"结婚三金"预算大幅增加。市场情绪在狂热中渐显分化，部分前期投资者选择获利了结。广发期货等机构指出，随着监管强 化风控，铂、钯等贵金属短期可能出现回调。（陈十一） 伴随现货价格上涨，白银主题基金出现罕见高溢价。国投瑞银白银期货LOF公告显示，截至12月25日，其二级市场收盘价为2.804 元，较前一日基金份额净值1.9278元溢价高达45%。为平抑溢价、控制规模，该基金宣布自12月29日起，将A类份额单日申购上限 收紧至100元，C类份额暂停申购。 市场专业人士分析指出，该限购举措主要受制于交易所持仓上限与公募基金杠杆约束。基金规模已达承载极限，若继续放开申 购，新增资金将无法有效配置白银期货，导致跟踪误差扩大，构成合规风险。限购是基金管理人在制度框架下的被动风控 ...

Market Analysis - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the "7" threshold for the first time in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB approached the same level, peaking at 7.0053 [2][14] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Israeli officials signal potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [2][14] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that the country is steadily approaching its 2% inflation target, with current real interest rates being very low, suggesting further rate hikes if economic conditions align with expectations [2][14] Futures Market and Trading Volume - On December 25, 2025, the main gold futures contract opened at 1013.94 CNY/g and closed at 1008.76 CNY/g, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 17,630.00 CNY/kg and closed at 17,397.00 CNY/kg, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of 1,313,979 contracts [15] Bond Market Monitoring - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.136%, with the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds at 0.63%, also unchanged [16] Holdings and Trading Volume Changes - On December 25, 2025, the Au2602 contract saw a decrease of 4,521 long positions and a decrease of 92 short positions, while the total trading volume for gold contracts was 307,456, down 37.41% from the previous day [17] - In silver, the Ag2602 contract experienced a reduction of 15,678 long positions and 14,342 short positions, with a total trading volume of 3,355,499 contracts, an increase of 1.64% [17] ETF Holdings Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.71 tons to 1,068.27 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,447 tons [18] Arbitrage Tracking - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -0.74 CNY/g, and for silver, it was -615.93 CNY/kg, with the gold-silver ratio at 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous day [19] Fundamental Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported gold trading volume of 28,920 kg, down 48.02%, and silver trading volume of 502,128 kg, down 50.32% [20] Investment Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is suggested, with expectations of a strong demand leading to a price range of 980 CNY/g to 1,080 CNY/g for the Au2602 contract [21] - For silver, a neutral outlook is maintained, with the price expected to remain strong due to tight supply, suggesting a trading range of 17,500 CNY/kg to 18,600 CNY/kg for the Ag2602 contract [22]

| 代码 | 名标 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002731 | 巷件珠宝 | | 5.21 | 35.14亿 | 47.05 | | 002716 | 湖南日银 | 策 | 4.94 | 192亿 | 100.59 | | 601212 | 日銀有色 | 主 | 4.81 | 435 乙 | 111.51 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | | 4.00 | 326亿 | 131.62 | | 600362 | 江西铜业 | 1 | 3.83 | 1579亿 | 129.92 | | 601168 | 西哥的一小 | 1 | 3.36 | 638亿 | 77.33 | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | 1 | 2.83 | 4114亿 | 198.32 | | 601969 | 海南矿业 | 资 | 2.76 | 223亿 | 60.07 | | 000878 | 云南铜业 | 1 | 2.73 | 377亿 | 57.49 | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | | 2.54 | 759亿 ...