Core Viewpoint - The latest tariff threats from President Trump are causing significant anxiety in global markets, with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% set to be implemented on countries that have not reached trade agreements by July 4 [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. government plans to send out tariff notifications to approximately 12 countries, with a maximum tariff rate of 70%, which is higher than the previously announced 50% [1]. - The implementation of these tariffs is scheduled to begin on August 1, following a 90-day negotiation window that ends on July 9 [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The shift in strategy from complex negotiations to unilateral ultimatums reflects the administration's frustration with ongoing trade talks, particularly with major partners like Japan and the EU [2]. - So far, only a few countries have successfully negotiated agreements with the U.S., such as the UK, which maintained a 10% base tariff, and Vietnam, which reduced tariffs on certain goods from 46% to 20% [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The aggressive trade strategy is creating significant uncertainty in the global economy, with markets closely monitoring the outcomes of the impending tariff notifications and their potential ripple effects [2].

Global Macro - The strong non-farm payroll data for June shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2% [1] - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, providing more policy space amid ongoing pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 26.7% to 4.3% and the September cut probability slightly decreasing from 69.1% to 62.4% [1] Employment Analysis - The ADP report earlier indicated a decline of 33,000 jobs, highlighting a key difference as it only accounts for private sector employment, excluding government jobs [2] - Government sector added 73,000 jobs, contributing half of the non-farm employment increase, primarily from state and local governments, while federal employment decreased by 7,000 [2] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly to 74,000, down from 137,000 in May, with most growth in lower-skilled sectors such as education and healthcare [2][3] - The labor force participation rate has declined for three consecutive months, contributing to the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs has led to a tighter labor market, particularly affecting low-skilled labor supply [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected strong non-farm data significantly reduces the urgency for rate cuts in the short term, with July lacking sufficient justification for a cut [4] - Future rate cuts may depend on inflation data, with the next potential window for a cut possibly in the fourth quarter as tariff-related inflation effects dissipate [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a patient approach in assessing data changes, avoiding aggressive policy adjustments in a high uncertainty environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) indicates the need for a more accommodative monetary policy stance due to escalating geopolitical tensions and external policy uncertainties that pose potential risks to inflation [1] Group 1 - The BSP is monitoring inflation risks closely in light of geopolitical tensions [1] - External policy uncertainties are contributing to the need for a more flexible monetary approach [1]

Economic Indicators - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to predictions of a rise to 4.3% [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and a decrease from the previous week's 237,000 [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services for May was $71.5 billion, wider than the expected $70.8 billion and an increase from the previous value of $61.6 billion [1] Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 to 214, which has faced criticism for reducing federal aid and increasing long-term debt while providing tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations [2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.6, indicating a rebound in business activity and orders, although the employment index showed the largest contraction in three months [2] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The European Commission President stated that the EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the U.S. on tariffs, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [2] - The European Central Bank's governing council member indicated that market expectations for another rate cut this year are reasonable, as multiple factors suggest inflation risks are more likely to trend downward [2] Japanese Economic Developments - The Bank of Japan received key support for its interest rate hike process, with companies agreeing to a 5.25% wage increase, the largest in 34 years, and summer bonuses averaging 4.37%, reaching a record of 991,000 yen [3] - A hawkish BOJ committee member suggested that the rate hike cycle would only be "briefly paused" before resuming [3]

美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一表示，他仍预计2025年仅降息一次，并在2026年再进行三次降息， 重申了其对当前货币政策路径的谨慎立场。 与此同时，美国地区经济数据显示，德克萨斯州制造业活动依然疲软。根据达拉斯联储周一公布的数 据，6月德州制造业商业活动指数录得-12.7，虽然仍处于收缩区间，较5月的-15.3有所改善，表明收缩 幅度略有收窄。 在Market News International举办的一场活动中，博斯蒂克称："我依然坚持原先的判断，"指的是他预计 今年只会降息一次的立场。他补充说，自己已"预留"出明年三次降息的空间。 博斯蒂克强调，在当前经济环境下，联储"有足够的耐心空间"来观察形势再行动。"劳动力市场依然非 常稳健，我们确实可以稍作等待"，我们在行动前还有时间看看经济如何演变。" 在被问及关税对经济的影响时，博斯蒂克指出，虽然提前的政策信号帮助企业一定程度上适应了加征关 税的过程，贸易政策方向仍存在高度不确定性。"目前仍难以判断贸易政策的最终走向，市场还需要时 间才能看清全貌。"他特别警告说，关税引发的通胀风险仍然是一个"悬而未决的问题"，"大量与关税相 关的价格效应尚未完全传导至实体经 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 BIS指出，增长前景恶化，同时消费者价格稳定、公共财政和金融系统的风险加剧。面对挑战，官员们 建议央行专注核心使命以维护信任，并增强行动有效性。 卡斯滕斯强调美联储在当前环境中尤其艰难，其主席鲍威尔坚决抵制来自白宫的降息压力。"在美国， 美联储可能面临非常困难的局面，即通胀压力上升或通胀预期偏离，同时经济放缓，"他说，"这是央行 通常觉得特别棘手的情况。" BIS报告频繁强调通胀风险，包括贸易中断如何冲击已受人口老龄化和劳动力短缺挤压的经济体，并损 害商品供应。官员们强调，疫情后消费者敏感度上升，结合仍高企的生活成本预期，可能对价格稳定构 成新挑战。 这一分析结合近期原油价格飙升（随后部分回落）可能让政策制定者警惕。BIS经济顾问申炫松（Hyun Song Shin）称："一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳，确保一次性价格上涨不转化为持续通胀至关重要。" 报告还指出，部分国家积累的史无前例的国债构成风险。经合组织成员国利息支付占GDP比例去年达 4%并将继续上升。"通胀和金融稳定风险更易源自主权债市压力或通过其传播，"BIS称，"对财政可持 续性的担忧可能引发再融资挑战，并潜在颠覆通 ...

Group 1 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very, very bad," with President Trump expressing anxiety and calling for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to lower government borrowing costs [1] - Trump is focusing on tariff policies to alleviate fiscal pressure, proposing a 10% tariff on all imports, which could generate over $400 billion in government revenue and significantly reduce the $1.83 trillion fiscal deficit [3] - The proposed tariffs are seen as a core strategy for the Trump administration to increase revenue, with the 10% tariff rate becoming a key indicator of his economic policy [3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff plan faces multiple challenges, including the Federal Reserve's commitment to independent monetary policy and bipartisan criticism regarding inflation risks and potential global trade retaliation [4] - Analysts suggest that while Trump's tariff strategy may boost fiscal revenue in the short term, it could lead to higher domestic prices, weaken corporate competitiveness, and provoke retaliation from trade partners, exacerbating the current economic imbalance [6] - The U.S. economy is currently in a "high debt, high deficit, low growth" predicament, and pushing for a tariff war may further complicate economic stability, with significant uncertainty about the future direction of the economy [6]

Global Debt and Economic Impact - Global public debt is projected to rise from $97 trillion in 2023 to $102 trillion in 2024, marking a historical high, with developing countries being the most affected [1] - The International Bank for Settlements warns that trade policies may expose global economic vulnerabilities and increase inflation risks, suggesting central banks focus on maintaining market trust [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6% [2] - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% month-on-month in May, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, while personal income decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since 2021 [2] Automotive Industry in the UK - The UK automotive sector saw a significant decline in production, with May output down 32.8% year-on-year to 49,810 vehicles, the lowest level for the month since 1949, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [2] Inflation Trends in Japan and France - Tokyo's core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in June, a decrease from 3.6% in May, falling short of the market expectation of 3.3% [2] - France's CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year in June, driven by stronger service sector inflation and a slight increase in food inflation [2] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points to close at 43,819.27, a gain of 1.00% [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 32.05 points to 6,173.07, up 0.52%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points to 20,273.46, also up 0.52% [3] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for August rose by $0.28 to $65.52 per barrel, an increase of 0.43% [4] - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.85% to $3,286.10 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.94% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) warns that inflation in the U.S. may resurface amid global economic turmoil caused by President Trump's trade policies, presenting significant challenges for the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The BIS report highlights the current economic uncertainty, which has reached levels typically associated with crises, primarily due to increased import tariffs imposed by the White House [2][3]. - The growth outlook has weakened, with heightened risks to consumer prices, public finances, and financial system stability [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Risks - The report emphasizes inflation risks, particularly how trade disruptions could impact economies already facing pressures from aging populations and labor shortages [3][4]. - There is a concern that consumer sensitivity to price changes has increased post-pandemic, which could pose new challenges to price stability [3][4]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Stability - The report notes unprecedented debt accumulation in some countries, with interest payments for OECD member countries reaching 4% of GDP last year and expected to rise [3][4]. - Inflation and financial stability risks often stem from pressures in sovereign bond markets, which could exacerbate refinancing challenges and disrupt inflation expectations [3][4]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The BIS suggests a series of policy measures to promote growth and productivity, including labor market reforms, reducing bureaucracy, eliminating trade barriers, and increasing public investment [5]. - The report advises central banks to carefully balance growth and inflation risks, noting that the era of consumers easily absorbing price shocks appears to be over [5].

鲍威尔在国会听证会上的发言尤为关键。他指出，如果不是因为关税带来的前景不确定性，美联储本可以 更有信心地推进宽松措施。这一表态折射出美联储在面对通胀数据逐步回落的同时，仍对中期物价走势保 持高度警惕。 尽管美国通胀数据显示持续温和回落迹象，本周多位美联储官员却集体传递出更为谨慎的信号，明确强调 需要再观察几个月，以判断关税所引发的物价上涨是否会对整体通胀形成持续性影响。这一表态为市场此 前对7月降息的预期泼了一盆冷水，也引发了外界对美联储政策路径稳定性的再度关注。 美联储理事ChristopherWaller和副主席MichelleBowman曾释放出相对鸽派的信号，暗示若通胀持续缓解， 他们可能支持在7月政策会议上启动降息进程。然而，这种预期很快被包括主席鲍威尔、纽约联储行长 Williams以及旧金山联储行长Daly等核心政策制定者所否定，他们几乎异口同声强调，目前尚不具备立即 调整利率的基础。 靠近，以及劳动力市场是否显现出更明显的疲软迹象。市场在此期间仍需对"短期内降息"的预期保持适度 保留。 关税因素成为当前政策制定的关键变量。自今年春季以来，美国政府针对多个国家加征关税，已在部分输 入型商品价格上 ...