Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the relationship between China and the US has significantly changed since the easing of the tariff war, with China gaining influence while the US appears to be losing its dominant position [1][5][8] - The US experts suggest that the only way to counter China is through a comprehensive economic blockade and technological sanctions, which is considered a "red line" that the US is reluctant to cross [3][11] - The trade war initiated by Trump has severely impacted the US economy, leading to increased prices for consumers and pressure on American businesses, forcing Trump to seek negotiations with China [5][6][13] Group 2 - China holds a critical advantage in the rare earth market, which has become a significant bargaining chip in the US-China rivalry, affecting US military and healthcare industries [6][8] - Despite the challenges, the US is unlikely to abandon its competitive stance against China due to a deeply ingrained elite mindset that views China's rise as a threat to US global standing [9][11] - The military gap between the two nations is widening, with China's military capabilities being recognized internationally, while the US struggles to demonstrate advancements in its own military technology [14][15] Group 3 - The economic interdependence between China and the US remains strong, with trade volumes still in the hundreds of billions, indicating that a complete severance of trade would harm the US more [13] - The negative perception of the US on the global stage is exacerbated by its hegemonic actions, particularly in the Middle East, which could further damage its image if it continues to pressure China [15][17] - Long-term, the notion that the US can solely defeat China through aggressive measures is flawed, as the world is moving towards cooperation and mutual benefit [17]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore paths for ecological win-win transformation [1]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The summit was held in Shenzhen on June 28-29, focusing on the theme "For an Open World" [1]. - The event was co-hosted by the Globalization Think Tank (CCG) and aimed to facilitate thought exchange, resource connection, and dialogue on rules among Chinese enterprises [1]. Group 2: Insights on China-US Relations - Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of CCG, emphasized China's commitment to defending free trade and the inevitability of peace between China and the US [3]. - He highlighted that China has surpassed the US in various sectors, including steel and automobile production, accounting for over half of global output in more than 200 categories [3]. - Gao projected that in the next 10 to 20 years, China's economic scale could be twice that of the US, as suggested by Elon Musk [3]. Group 3: China's Global Positioning - Gao addressed the US's fears of China becoming a global hegemon, asserting that China does not seek to impose its ideology or political system on others [3]. - He described China's current strength compared to its past and reiterated that China aims to be a "benevolent ruler," treating all countries equally, regardless of their size [3].

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore win-win transformation paths [1] - The summit was co-hosted by the Globalization Think Tank (CCG) and aimed to facilitate resource connections and dialogue on rules amidst the deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] Group 2 - Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of CCG, emphasized the importance of defending free trade and expressed confidence in the inevitability of peace between China and the United States, countering the notion of an unavoidable conflict as suggested in Graham Allison's book "Destined for War" [3] - Gao argued that applying the Thucydides Trap theory to Sino-U.S. relations is a fallacy, as a potential conflict would result in catastrophic consequences for both nations and humanity [3] - Regarding the trade war, Gao asserted that China would ultimately prevail, urging unity among Chinese businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to navigate challenges and emerge stronger [3]

凤凰网财经讯 6月28-29日，"2025中国企业出海高峰论坛"在深圳举行，本次论坛由凤凰网主办，雪花超高端系列品牌-醴首席赞助合作，中国企业出海全球 化理事会联合主办，以"为开放的世界"为主题，旨在全球产业链深度重构之际，为中国企业搭建思想碰撞、资源对接、规则对话的高端平台，系统性破解出 海难题，共探生态共赢转型路径。 高志凯认为，目前美国并没到"我不想变成世界第一了"的阶段，它纠结的不是要不要放弃世界第一，而是不允许中国成为世界第一。 有这种纠结在前，美国就染上了两个噩梦，第一个噩梦是总担心中国会超过它。事实上，从钢铁产量、汽车产量等200多项客观数据来看，中国不仅超过了 美国，甚至占到了全球产量的一半以上。 第二个噩梦则是，美国担心中国超过它之后称霸世界，将意识形态、政治制度、行为准则等强加给美国，把它从世界舞台的中央给挤走。 对此，高志凯表示，中国过去弱小，但现在已经比较强大了。但即便将来更加强大，中国也不会争霸。中国想做的是"仁义之君"，对世界200多个国家，无 论是大国还是小国都一视同仁。 全球化智库(CCG)副主任、苏州大学讲席教授高志凯 全球化智库(CCG)副主任、苏州大学讲席教授高志凯出席本 ...

今年六月以来，中美关系出现显著回暖迹象。先是美中领导人进行了长达90分钟的通话，特朗普随后高调宣布"取得了非常积极的成果"，并欣然接受访华邀 请。紧接着，双方经贸团队在伦敦会谈，就贸易共识框架达成一致。最终，特朗普在6月26日单方面宣布"已与中国签署贸易相关协议"。这一系列事件标志 着特朗普政府的对华策略从单纯的威逼转向了更具策略性的谈判，从而有效地管控了双边关系，也为此次访华行程奠定了坚实基础。 媒体报道显示，特朗普此访有两大特殊之处： 八年之后，特朗普或将再次踏上中国土地。这一消息由《日经亚洲》等多家媒体率先报道，据称美国官员正紧锣密鼓地筹备其访华行程，时间点距离特朗普 单方面宣布中美贸易协议达成不到72小时。 此次访华，并非例行公事，其代表团构成及特殊安排已预示着特朗普绝非空手而来。 特朗普政府的对华政策，自上任伊始便充满戏剧性张力。初入白宫，他豪言百日内访华，然而一系列强硬举措却令访华计划胎死腹中，中方对此未予回应。 其后，特朗普政府步步升级，以贸易战为首的施压手段，企图迫使中国在经贸等领域做出让步，一时间中美关系剑拔弩张。但随着时间的推移，美国政府逐 渐意识到强硬路线的失效，中国不会轻易屈服，战略调 ...

财政部副部长廖岷6月20日在京会见美国哈佛大学教授艾利森，就中美关系、中美经贸关系和当前地区 热点问题等进行深入交流。 廖岷表示，在中美元首通话重要共识引领下，双方经贸团队达成日内瓦共 识、伦敦框架，为稳定中美关系和中美经贸关系发挥重要作用。中方将坚定维护自身正当权益，也愿在 平等、相互尊重和互利共赢的基础上与美方保持经贸往来，造福两国和世界。艾利森表示，美中关系是 世界上最重要的双边关系之一，双方保持并深化沟通意义重大。中方在推动经济转型、进一步扩大开 放、维护公平市场环境等方面成效显著。美中经济高度依存，深化经贸往来符合两国和世界的利益。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily, dated June 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node for confirming the planting area, and the weather conditions in the producing areas should be continuously monitored after the announcement. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and buying far - month contracts on dips are suitable strategies [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.9%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1551 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1961 [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Feed mills with low regular purchase inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Core Contradictions - The external market's oil - trading logic hype has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the planting - area confirmation time. In the domestic market, near - month prices are suppressed by real - world pressure, while far - month contracts have supply - gap and weather - speculation factors [4] 利多解读 - No content provided 利空解读 - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse - receipt registration, likely leading to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil - mill operating rates are rising, and extraction has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6] - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the third quarter remains abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6] - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and the downstream finds adding rapeseed meal lack cost - effectiveness. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly follow the soybean meal market with a weak outlook [6] Futures Price - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3069, down 4 (- 0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2747, down 6 (- 0.22%); soybean meal 09 is 3037, unchanged (0%) [7] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2374, down 4 (- 0.17%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2375, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2662, up 5 (0.19%) [10] - **Other Futures**: The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1046.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1801, down 0.0201 (- 0.28%) [10] Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4 [11] - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9 [11] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2900, down 20, and the basis is - 137, down 20. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2619, down 2, and the basis is - 38, up 20. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 281, down 20, and the futures spread is 375, down 5 [11] Import Cost and Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4632.1082 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and down 0.0108 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3830.16 yuan/ton, down 39.56 yuan/ton and up 11.47 yuan/ton week - on - week [12] - **Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 777.3132 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and up 18.4175 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 202.901 yuan/ton, down 15.9385 yuan/ton and down 0.152 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton and up 111 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot profit is 118 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton and up 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasized that China's sovereignty, security, and development interests are non-negotiable red lines, advocating for mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation as essential principles in U.S.-China relations [1] Group 1: Current State of U.S.-China Relations - U.S.-China relations are at a critical juncture, presenting two distinct paths: cooperation for mutual benefit or mutual harm [1] - The recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump was highlighted as a pivotal moment for steering U.S.-China relations in the right direction [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Economic cooperation has been described as the ballast of U.S.-China relations, with the business community playing a vital role in practical cooperation [1] - The U.S.-China Trade National Committee is recognized as a leader in fostering economic relations between the two countries [1]

中国驻美大使谢锋：中国的主权安全发展利益是不可逾越的红线 金十数据6月19日讯，据中国驻美大使馆网站消息，2025年6月18日，中国驻美国大使谢锋应邀出席美中 贸易全国委员会2025年度庆典晚宴并发表演讲。谢锋指出，当前中美关系正处在关键节点，合作共赢还 是两败俱伤，是摆在我们面前两条截然不同的航道。我们要坚持元首战略引领，不折不扣落实两国元首 通话重要共识。坚持对话合作正确方向，增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流。中方有诚意但讲 原则，中国的主权安全发展利益是不可逾越的红线，相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢是必须恪守的原 则。希望美方同中方相向而行，做伙伴而非当对手，彼此成就而非相互伤害，共同探索新时期中美正确 相处之道。 （日月谭天） ...

在特朗普开启第二个总统任期后，马斯克成为其政府中最引人瞩目的人物之一。但随着美国政府效率部 工作和特朗普关税政策的推进，他和特朗普阁僚之间的矛盾不断升级。 6月初，马斯克公开抨击特朗普的"大而美"税改法案，两人的矛盾被摆上台面。马斯克随后曝出关于特 朗普的"猛料"，特朗普则一度威胁要取消特斯拉的政府补贴与合同。 【文/观察者网 王恺雯】美国总统特朗普和特斯拉首席执行官马斯克近期因美国税改法案公开撕破脸。 香港《南华早报》6月17日刊文，指出特朗普对待昔日盟友马斯克的方式凸显了他的不可预测性，这会 加深中国对他的怀疑，从而在同美国打交道时更为谨慎。 马斯克是特朗普2024年总统竞选的最大的政治捐助者，两人的关系在特朗普第二次竞选总统时进入了一 段"蜜月期"，马斯克曾称自己是特朗普的"第一拍档"（first buddy）。 虽然双方的争执后来有所缓和，马斯克也主动"示好"，但《南华早报》指出，此事可能加深了中国人对 特朗普是一个反复无常、出尔反尔政客的印象。外交观察人士认为，这意味着中国在和特朗普打交道时 会保持警惕和谨慎。 特朗普去年胜选后，他多次与马斯克一起接见来访的外国领导人。 社交媒体 清华大学战略与安全 ...