Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior" that undermines her credibility as a regulator [1][4][5] - Following the announcement, major financial indices including the US dollar index, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and Dow futures experienced a sharp decline [2] - Trump's actions reflect increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, particularly criticizing Powell's stance on interest rates [5] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The US government plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, 2025, as part of escalating trade tensions [2][6] - This new tariff follows previous tariffs of 25% imposed on Indian imports, leading to a cumulative tariff rate of 50% on Indian goods [6] - India has expressed strong opposition to the US's tariff actions, stating they are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has vowed to protect its national interests [6][7] Group 3: US-Korea Trade Negotiations - President Trump indicated a willingness to renegotiate trade agreements with South Korea, including potential orders for ships [3][8] - The US and South Korea previously agreed on a trade deal involving a $350 billion investment fund aimed at supporting South Korean industries in the US market [8][9] - The agreement includes provisions for reduced tariffs on South Korean goods, with specific commitments on energy and other sectors [9]

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a consensus on certain details of their trade agreement, primarily focusing on tariff adjustments, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most European products, up from just over 2% previously [1] - The agreement includes a conditional reduction of the US tariff on European car imports from 25% to 15%, contingent upon the EU eliminating tariffs on US industrial products and providing greater market access for certain US agricultural products [1][4] - The EU has been negotiating for exemptions for key domestic industries, but the wine and spirits sectors did not receive the desired exemptions, disappointing stakeholders in those industries [3] Group 2 - EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic emphasized that the agreement is a positive step amid changing trade dynamics, but it is just the beginning of ongoing negotiations [4] - The Trump administration views this agreement as a significant move towards addressing trade imbalances and reducing the long-standing trade deficit with the EU [6] - The joint statement released is not legally binding and contains many terms that require further negotiation, indicating that complex issues like "rules of origin" will take time to resolve [6][11] Group 3 - The agreement framework includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products over three years and to invest an additional $600 billion in the US [7] - Analysts express skepticism regarding the feasibility of these investment commitments, as the EU cannot directly influence private sector spending [9] - Despite the new tariffs increasing costs for US consumers purchasing European goods, the overall agreement is seen as favoring US interests while preventing a full-blown trade war [11]

Group 1 - The Canadian government has decided to compromise by adjusting previously imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, canceling most tariffs while temporarily retaining tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - Canada was the only developed country to directly confront the U.S. since the new trade agreement pushed by Trump, imposing a 35% tariff on U.S. goods starting August 1, 2018, significantly higher than the 15% tariffs imposed by other developed nations [1][2] - The economic pressure from the U.S. has forced Canada to reconsider its stance, as its economy is closely tied to the U.S., necessitating a balance of internal interests [2] Group 2 - Trump's long-term plan may involve integrating Canada into the U.S. political system, with a probability exceeding 60% that Canada could become a U.S. state by the end of 2028 [4] - The U.S. aims to strengthen economic ties with Mexico while also seeking to consolidate its influence over South American countries like Brazil and Argentina [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 775.04 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.14% [1] - The opening price for the day was 776.0 CNY per gram, with a high of 777.22 CNY and a low of 774.76 CNY [1] - Market risk appetite remains high, suggesting short-term fluctuations in gold prices, but potential interest rate cuts in September may provide support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices are expected to experience short-term range fluctuations, but the medium-term outlook will be driven by fundamental factors [3] Group 3: Macro Economic Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester does not support interest rate cuts if the Fed is to make a policy decision imminently [1] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in September, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Jackson Hole global central bank conference is drawing attention, with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to deliver a keynote speech, which investors are eagerly awaiting for clues on interest rate direction [1] Group 4: U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a consensus on a trade agreement framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, and semiconductors [2] - The framework specifies that the U.S. will apply the most favored nation (MFN) tariff or a 15% reciprocal tariff on EU-origin goods, with certain products facing MFN tariffs starting September 1, 2025 [2] - The agreement aims to reduce the current 27.5% tariff on automobiles and parts to a maximum of 15%, alleviating pressure on the European automotive industry [2]

Group 1 - The EU and the US have reached a joint statement on a trade agreement, reaffirming a 15% tariff cap on most goods from the EU [1] - The US is likely to reduce tariffs on EU automobiles within a few weeks [1]

Group 1 - India has suspended an 11% import duty on cotton until September 30, signaling a willingness to address U.S. concerns regarding agricultural tariffs and alleviating pressure on its domestic apparel industry [1] - The temporary exemption allows U.S. cotton farmers to benefit while providing relief to India's apparel sector, which will face nearly 60% tariffs on exports to the U.S. starting later this month [1] - The planned visit of U.S. trade negotiators to New Delhi from August 25 to 29 has been canceled, delaying discussions on a proposed bilateral trade agreement and diminishing hopes for Indian goods to avoid an additional 25% tariff starting August 27 [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil, resulting in a total import tariff rate on Indian products doubling to 50% [1] - Previously, Indian export goods faced tariffs ranging from 0% to 5%, while certain textiles had tariffs between 9% and 13% before Trump's tariff increase in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest market for Indian apparel exporters, and high tariffs are leading to order cancellations and loss of competitive advantage against countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations. Currently, the marginal improvement of fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate good realization of this expectation. The downward driving force has faded, but the rebound space is limited. The market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents China's LPG Import Structure Changes - During the 2018 - 2020 trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market due to a 20% tariff. By 2024, the proportion of US LPG imports in China reached a record high of 50.9%, and subsequently, trade conflicts led to fluctuations in this proportion. In March 2025, it dropped to 38.7%, and in June, it fell to 12%. It is expected to remain in the range of 35% - 40% in the short term [1][3][4] - After the expectation of a 145% tariff on US LPG in May, there was a rush to import, causing the total LPG import volume to increase after March. In June, the procurement volume declined rapidly, and the proportion of US LPG also decreased significantly [4] - In July, the total domestic import volume is expected to rebound, with the year - on - year decline narrowing from - 21% in June to - 12% in July. The proportion of US LPG in the import volume is expected to further recover to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, Northeast Asia, centered on China, has become the main destination for US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination at 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, exports to other regions such as Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, with the export proportion to these two regions increasing from 9.4% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2 [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The EIA slightly increased its short - term forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the room for further production increase within the year is limited due to weak gas prices. The over - supply pressure remains, but the negative pressure may decline marginally [11] - In August, the Middle East CP was significantly lowered for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East's attitude to seize the market under over - supply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been restored to a historical neutral level [11] - The low - price PG has stimulated the recovery of terminal demand, and the distorted trade flow has begun to repair. After the recent rapid decline of crude oil, PG has remained relatively stable, with a firm ratio [11]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities show different trends, including price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and impacts from macro and industry news [2][6] - Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy changes Summary by Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold**: PPI exceeding expectations dampens interest - rate cut expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] - **Silver**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12] - **Zinc**: Shows a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15] - **Lead**: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18] - **Tin**: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21] - **Aluminum**: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina's center of gravity moves down, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25] - **Nickel**: Narrowly fluctuates based on fundamentals, and investors should be wary of news - related risks, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] Energy - related Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Trades in a range, and investors should pay attention to supply disruptions, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38] - **Polysilicon**: Market news boosts sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 [2][39] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43] - **Rebar**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][46] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - **Silicomanganese**: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - **Coke**: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] - **Coking Coal**: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] Forestry Products - **Log**: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58] Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the monthly spread remains strong [2][62] - **PTA**: Weak reality and strong expectations lead to a monthly - spread reverse arbitrage [2][62] - **MEG**: The arrival volume this week is low, and the basis strengthens [2][62] Rubber - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly [2][31] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pulls back in the short - term and trades in a range in the medium - term [2][33] Building Materials - **Asphalt**: Poor sales and unfavorable crude - oil trends [2][35] - **LLDPE**: Trades in a range [2][38] - **PP**: Tends to be weak, but investors should be cautious when short - selling at low levels [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Should be treated bullishly, but investors should pay attention to the situation of near - month warehouse receipts [2][40] - **Pulp**: Fluctuates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Fluctuates [2][44] - **Urea**: Driven by short - term news, the upside space narrows [2][46] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [2][48] - **LPG**: The risk of squeezing positions in the near - month contract still exists [2][49] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Follows the macro trend and adjusts [2][61] - **Soybean Oil**: Lacks driving force from US soybeans and adjusts [2][61] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans close lower, and the domestic soybean meal adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - **Soybean**: The atmosphere in the soybean market is weak, and it adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - **Corn**: Runs weakly [2][65] - **Sugar**: The import volume in July increases significantly year - on - year [2][67] - **Cotton**: Investors should pay attention to the listing of new cotton [2][68] - **Egg**: The long - term expectation is weak [2][70] - **Live Pig**: Wait for the verification of the spot price at the end of the month [2][71] - **Peanut**: Investors should pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][72] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Fluctuates and consolidates, and investors can hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [2][54] Textiles - **Short - fiber**: Trades in a short - term range, and investors should pay attention to the approaching peak - season demand [2][58] - **Bottle - grade Chip**: Has limited downside space and trades in a range [2][58] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Fluctuates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [2][59] - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates weakly [2][60]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Donald Trump has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum to include over 400 consumer goods, such as motorcycles and cutlery, shocking the logistics industry [2] - Customs brokers and importers were not notified of the changes, which took effect on Monday, leading to confusion among trade professionals [2] - The new tariff list includes a wide range of products, indicating a strategic shift in the regulation of steel and aluminum derivatives [3] Group 2 - The logistics giant Kuehne Nagel International AG highlighted that any shiny or metallic items related to steel or aluminum could be subject to the new tariffs, marking a significant regulatory change [3] - The White House has not commented on the sudden expansion of tariffs but indicated that businesses should have anticipated these products being included [3] - The latest gold market analysis suggests a bearish short-term outlook, with support levels around 3308-3310 and resistance at approximately 3324 [4]