Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government continues to support automotive consumption policies despite the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax, signaling a strong commitment to boosting domestic demand and the automotive market [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new "two new" policy will be implemented in 2026, with specific guidelines for the vehicle trade-in subsidy released promptly to address market concerns and avoid policy gaps [1] - The automotive trade-in program is expected to support over 11.5 million vehicles and generate more than 1.6 trillion yuan in new car sales by 2025 [1] Group 2: Subsidy Expansion - The trade-in subsidy has been expanded to include older gasoline and diesel vehicles, allowing more consumers to benefit from the program [2] - The new subsidy structure links the amount to the sales price of new vehicles, enhancing fairness and precision in the policy, while promoting higher-end vehicle consumption [2][3] Group 3: Standardization and Optimization - A unified national standard for trade-in subsidies will be established, with specific percentages for different vehicle types, such as 8% for new energy vehicles and 6% for gasoline vehicles [3] - The policy encourages the purchase of new energy vehicles and low-emission gasoline vehicles, with nearly 60% of trade-ins expected to be new energy vehicles by 2025 [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The automotive consumption landscape in China is shifting from first-time purchases to trade-ins, with an estimated 12 million trade-in applications expected by 2026 [4] - The increasing focus on intelligent features in new energy vehicles is expected to enhance consumer experience and stimulate market activity [4]

Domestic Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2026, focusing on precision and coordination to support economic growth and structural transformation[10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has launched an action plan for the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence, marking a new phase in industrial intelligence development[12] - A green consumption promotion plan was issued, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and support the transition to a circular economy[9] International Developments - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, marking the largest contraction since 2024, with inventory reduction being a major drag[18] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI fell to 2% in December, indicating a return to target levels, while core inflation remains resilient[20] - The U.S. has initiated a global sale of Venezuelan oil, which may disrupt global energy trade and escalate geopolitical tensions[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.94% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 1.88% and 3.60%, respectively[24] - Domestic real estate sales saw a significant decline of 62% week-on-week, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[24] - The DXI index for storage DRAM prices rose by 7.45% week-on-week, reflecting positive trends in emerging industries[33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, and sentiment is easing. In Q1, the issuance scale of government bonds is expected to be roughly the same as in the same period of 2025, but the specific proportion of ultra - long bonds remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year has increased short - term profit - taking needs, and the market may enter a consolidation phase, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, as the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations and the economic data of that month may improve marginally, reducing the need for further loose monetary policies in the short term. With multiple factors at play, interest rates are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term [103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TS2603, TF2603, T2603, TL2603) fell by 0.12%, 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.48% respectively. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the T main contract decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TS main contracts decreased, and that of the TL main contract increased [14][29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On January 6, the People's Bank of China planned to use various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently in 2026, and strengthen financial market supervision. The same day, China banned the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users. On January 7, eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The US initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, and the US President Trump expected to "manage" Venezuela for many years and increase the military budget [35][36]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contract yields narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts widened, while those of the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed [44][50][56]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - Shibor rates for overnight and 1 - week terms increased, while those for 2 - week and 1 - month terms decreased. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47%. Most Treasury bond spot yields increased, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 3.75bp and 5.45bp to 1.88% and 2.31% respectively [71]. - The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields fluctuated [76]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.3236 trillion yuan due. The 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase was rolled over, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit of 6 billion yuan matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2449 trillion yuan. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 976.86 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 412.35 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 564.51 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0128, up 160 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated, and the VIX index increased. - The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In December, macro - policies continued to take effect, inflation moderately rebounded, the CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the PPI decline narrowed to 1.9%. For the whole year, the CPI was flat compared with the previous year, and the PPI was still in the negative range. In December, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both improved and returned above the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [102]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US job market continued to cool down. The ADP employment in December increased to 41,000 but was still lower than expected. The number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly fell to 47.9, the lowest since 2024, while the non - manufacturing PMI rebounded, indicating the resilience of the service industry. The US raid on Venezuela caused geopolitical shocks [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a volatile and upward trend this week, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - The lithium carbonate market fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand, with industrial inventory basically unchanged from last week and the inventory reduction rate slowing down. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate main contract was volatile and slightly stronger on the weekly line, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro Aspect**: Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement a green consumption promotion campaign, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects, supporting consumers to purchase new - energy vehicles [7]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Material End**: Lithium ore prices have been rising with the continuous increase in lithium carbonate prices. Due to the relatively favorable lithium carbonate futures price, there may be a certain hedging space, which has improved the raw material trading situation [7]. - **Supply End**: Due to the existence of hedging space in the futures market, smelters may maintain a relatively active production state after participation, and the domestic supply has shown a slight upward trend [7]. - **Demand End**: Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers generally have a low acceptance of the current high - price lithium, and their procurement strategies are mainly based on rigid - demand purchases. Therefore, the market sentiment remains cautious [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,840 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 4,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 340 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,600 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data this week, the US dollar - to - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9807, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13% [22]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithiophilite was 16,075 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 6,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 894 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons or 7.64% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons or 208.75% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32]. - **Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons or 5.26% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Downstream Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 157,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons or 5.55% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [35]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons or 0.16% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons or 1.77% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to rise [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons or 1.76% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 49,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 yuan/ton [48]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 388,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,800 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons or 1.74% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [51]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Application - **New - Energy Vehicles - Sales**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [53]. - **New - Energy Vehicles - Exports**: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [58]. 3.7 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [61].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 consumer market will be led by green consumption, supported by new policies that optimize subsidies for energy-efficient products and promote the transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy sources [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - Nine government departments have jointly issued a document outlining 20 measures to promote green consumption, establishing a comprehensive policy framework that includes incentives, constraints, and guarantees [2]. - The new policies include a subsidy of 15% of the sales price for energy-efficient home appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per item, and prioritize the replacement of old operational vehicles with electric ones [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand Trends - Consumer demand is shifting from basic availability to quality and sustainability, with a notable increase in the sales of energy-efficient appliances, which grew over 10% during the New Year holiday [2]. - The latest data indicates that from 2024 to 2025, 18.3 million vehicles will be replaced under the old-for-new program, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, and over 90% of home appliances replaced will meet first-level energy or water efficiency standards [2]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The demand for green products is driving companies to increase their investments in sustainable practices, including the development of green supply chains and the use of energy-efficient facilities [3]. - The transition to a circular economy is being facilitated by the establishment of reverse logistics systems and the promotion of "Internet + second-hand" models, shifting business models from linear to circular [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Corporate Perspectives - Green consumption should be perceived as a cost-effective choice rather than a premium option, with energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles offering long-term savings and better experiences [4]. - Companies are encouraged to view green transformation as a source of competitive advantage through technological innovation and resource optimization, which can lead to cost savings and new revenue streams [4].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) turning from decline to increase during midday trading on January 9. Notable gainers included Lao Pu Gold, Mao Ge Ping, Kang Shi Fu Holdings, Bosideng, and Shenzhou International, while major decliners were Mixue Group, Pop Mart, Smoore International, Mengniu Dairy, and WH Group [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) has seen a net inflow of funds for two consecutive trading days, accumulating a total of 36.63 million yuan [1] - On January 5, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released a notice on implementing green consumption promotion actions, outlining 20 specific measures across seven areas to accelerate the green transformation of consumption patterns and support high-quality economic development [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities believes that the notice on green consumption aligns with the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, embedding green consumption into the overall development strategy and providing core support for green transformation from the consumption end [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing leading companies across various consumer sectors, including Pop Mart, Yum China, Anta Sports, Nongfu Spring, and WH Group [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the Chinese government's initiative to promote green consumption through a series of measures aimed at enhancing the supply of green products, improving green service consumption, and innovating green consumption models [1][4] - The Chinese government plans to allocate 300 billion RMB in special long-term bonds by 2025 to support the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate domestic demand [1] - The "trade-in" policy has reportedly driven sales of related goods exceeding 2.6 trillion RMB and benefited over 360 million people throughout the year [1] Group 2 - Since the full implementation of the "trade-in" policy in September 2024, over 480 million subsidies have been distributed directly to consumers [4] - For every two new household cars sold in 2025, one will benefit from the automobile trade-in subsidy, encouraging more consumers to experience in-store shopping [4] - The policy has led to a more than 30% increase in consumer spending in areas with concentrated physical stores for home appliance trade-ins within a 1-kilometer radius [4]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption, outlining 20 specific measures across seven areas, including home appliances and home decoration [1] - The notice encourages the purchase of green certified products, such as energy-efficient home appliances and fluorine-free air conditioners, and aims to enhance the certification system for green smart appliances [1][3] - Recent data shows a significant increase in sales of green energy-saving products, with a 36.2% year-on-year growth in large-screen TV sales during the New Year period, and substantial growth in sales of smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches [1] Group 2 - Local policies promoting green consumption have been implemented, such as the "National Subsidy Service Station" in Taiyuan, which has led to a 137% year-on-year increase in sales for a major home appliance company [2] - Shanghai plans to continue its old-for-new subsidy program for home appliances and digital smart products until 2026, covering various energy-efficient appliances and smart devices [2] - The Chinese home appliance market is projected to reach a retail scale of 751 billion yuan from January to September 2025, with a 10.2% year-on-year growth, indicating a shift in consumer focus towards quality and sustainability [2] Group 3 - The continuous rollout of policies aimed at promoting green consumption is expected to reshape the industry landscape, with unified certification standards enhancing market demand for green smart appliances [3] - Experts emphasize that green consumption encompasses the entire lifecycle of products, from production to recycling, and the recent notice aims to cover this full chain [4] - Companies are encouraged to develop high-efficiency, low-water products and integrate them into smart home ecosystems, with a growing demand for green building materials and prefabricated renovations driven by policy support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the green consumption market in 2026 will be led by policies and initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable consumption practices across various sectors, including appliances, transportation, and agriculture [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - A joint announcement by nine government departments outlines 20 measures to promote green consumption, establishing a comprehensive policy framework that includes incentives, constraints, and guarantees [2]. - The new policies include subsidies for replacing old appliances with energy-efficient models, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and a focus on transitioning old commercial vehicles to electric ones [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand Trends - Consumer demand is shifting from basic availability to quality and sustainability, with a notable increase in the sales of energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [2]. - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that from 2024 to 2025, 18.3 million vehicles will be replaced under the old-for-new policy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, and over 90% of replaced appliances will meet first-level energy or water efficiency standards [2]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The demand for green products is driving companies to increase their investments in sustainable practices, leading to a transformation in the manufacturing sector towards greener supply chains and production methods [3]. - The establishment of reverse logistics systems and the promotion of "Internet + second-hand" models are expected to shift business models from linear to circular economies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Business Perspectives - For consumers, green products should not be perceived as expensive but rather as cost-effective choices that provide long-term savings and health benefits [4]. - Companies are encouraged to view green transformation as an opportunity for innovation and growth rather than merely a compliance requirement, which can lead to cost savings and enhanced product value [4]. Group 5: Environmental Impact - The widespread adoption of green consumption is anticipated to result in significant environmental benefits, contributing to cleaner air, water, and overall improved ecological conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The transition of green consumption from "optional" to "mandatory" requires a multi-faceted approach, including institutional improvements, technological innovations, and a strong policy and market orientation to ensure profitability in green consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - A comprehensive policy framework has been established with 20 measures across seven areas to promote green consumption, marking a shift from advocacy to systematic implementation [2]. - The integration of innovative policy tools, such as a universal green consumption points system, aims to quantify and reward low-carbon behaviors, enhancing consumer engagement in green consumption [2]. - The demand for green products is evolving, with consumers increasingly prioritizing quality and environmental impact over mere cost, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [2]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - The demand for green products is driving companies to increase their investments in green technologies and practices, fostering a shift towards sustainable supply chains and circular economic models [3]. - The establishment of reverse logistics systems and the promotion of "Internet + second-hand" models are transforming traditional linear business models into circular ones, enhancing sustainability [3]. - Despite the push for green consumption, challenges remain, including high initial costs of green products, incomplete recycling systems, and uneven development across regions [3]. Group 3: Consumer and Corporate Perspectives - For consumers, green consumption should be seen as a cost-effective choice rather than a premium option, with energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles offering long-term savings and better experiences [4]. - Companies must view green transformation as an opportunity for innovation and growth rather than a compliance burden, leveraging cost savings from reduced energy use and waste to enhance competitiveness [4]. - The widespread adoption of green consumption is expected to yield significant environmental benefits, contributing to a cleaner and healthier ecosystem [4].