Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent strong performance of the euro against the US dollar, driven by a weakening dollar and diverging monetary policy expectations between the US and Europe [1][2] - The euro broke through the key resistance level of 1.20, reaching a high of 1.2068, marking the highest level since June 2021, indicating a phase of trend reversal [1] - The primary drivers of this upward trend include the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a slowdown in US economic growth, which diminished the dollar's yield advantage [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the euro has been building a bullish structure since its low in 2022, with the recent breakout confirming a mid-term upward trend [2] - Despite the euro's strength, the underlying economic recovery in Europe remains weak, with manufacturing PMI consistently below the growth line, which may limit the euro's upward potential [2] - The euro's performance is significantly negatively correlated with the dollar index, and its future movements will depend heavily on dollar fluctuations and Federal Reserve guidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overnight surge in London spot gold prices reached a new historical high, driven by uncertainties in U.S. policy and a weakening dollar, while geopolitical tensions continue to support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5]. Market Dynamics - London spot gold prices increased significantly, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.82% and SHFE gold declining by 0.28% [5]. - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping below the 96 mark to a four-year low, with a daily decline exceeding 1%, which bolstered gold prices [5]. - The likelihood of a government shutdown in the U.S. by the end of January has increased, further undermining confidence in U.S. economic stability [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. is set to conduct military exercises in the Middle East, with reports indicating communication with Israel regarding actions against Iran, raising concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions [5]. - Despite expectations of limited impact from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and ongoing issues related to Greenland, are expected to keep gold's appeal strong in the short term [5].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌；可以让美元像一个yo-yo（悠悠球）一样波动； 并不认为美元下跌太多；美元正在回归其自身应有的水平，这是合理的；日本一直都想让货币贬值。受 此消息影响，美元指数一度跌超1%报95.7905，创近四年以来新低。此外，美国总统特朗普称，鉴于韩 国方面尚未通过该项"具有历史意义的贸易协议"，他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对 等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。经济数据方面，世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘政治 紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创 2014年以来新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-27，沪金主力合约开于1145.94元/克，收于1148.38元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.44%。当日 成交量为41087手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1146.80元/克，收于1142.00元/克， 较昨日午后收盘下跌0.56%。 2026-01-27，沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has been declining significantly due to multiple investor expectations, reaching a near four-year low, with a notable drop on January 27 [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - On January 27, the dollar index fell by 0.84%, closing at 96.219, and subsequently dropped to 95.55, marking the lowest level since mid-February 2022 [1] - The euro to dollar exchange rate surpassed the 1.20 mark for the first time since 2021, indicating a strong performance of the euro against the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - President Trump expressed confidence in the current performance of the dollar, stating he does not believe it has fallen excessively, which contributed to the rapid decline of the dollar index [1] - There are speculations that the US and Japan may collaborate on foreign exchange market interventions, which has led to a significant strengthening of the yen against the dollar [1] Group 3: Economic Policy Uncertainty - The chief market economist at Capital Economics noted that while there are several factors contributing to the dollar's decline, the primary driver is market expectations regarding potential interventions by the US Treasury in the foreign exchange market [1] - The chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments indicated that the US government's lack of regret over tariff policies and the potential for another government shutdown have heightened economic policy uncertainty, leading to increased "sell America" trades [1]

2026年01月28日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5200 美元/盎司，伦敦银价周三和那个 110 美元/盎司。 | | | 金 | 基本面：美元创四年新低，跌超 1%、创去年 4 月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅；美国将在中东举行空军 | | | 属 | 战备演习；美国政府关门时点逼近，特朗普与明州州长通话，同意考虑减少 ICE 人数；"新美联储通讯社"称 | | | | 美联储 1 月料暂停降息。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 4.1 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1117.8 吨，维持不变；上期所 | | | | 黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨，维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 | 12911 | | | 吨，-3 吨；上期所白银库存为 544.2 吨，-29.6 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15847.5 吨，-126.9 吨；金交所 | | | | 白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨 ...

格隆汇1月28日｜隔夜美元指数暴跌，一度跌至95.51，创2022年2月以来新低。 美国总统特朗普表示，他不认为美元"跌得太多"，并称美元"表现很棒"、汇率本就会波动。他还称希望美元"回归自身应有水平"，并称这是"公平的做法"。 特朗普还暗示自己"可以让美元像溜溜球一样上上下下"，但他同时称这种做法不理想，并借机批评部分亚洲经济体试图通过压低本币来获得竞争优势。 InvestingLive分析师Adam Button指出，特朗普长期以来一直暗示他青睐弱势美元，并认为这将有助于提升美国的出口竞争力。市场将他的言论解读为对美元 走低的默许、甚至是公然推波助澜。此类举动无疑会促使外国资本撤离美元。尽管美股去年的表现尚可，但若折算成外币计价，其成色便大打折扣。 ...

美元指数重挫，盘中创近四年以来新低。 当地时间1月27日（周二），美国股市三大股指收盘涨跌互现，其中道琼斯工业指数收盘下跌逾400点，标普500指数盘中则创出历史新高。 当天美元指数成为市场焦点之一，盘中重挫，创出近四年以来新低。 美股三大股指涨跌互现 道指跌超400点 当地时间1月27日，美国股市三大股指收盘涨跌互现，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.83%，下跌超过400点；标普500指数涨0.41%，盘中创出历史新高； 纳斯达克指数涨0.91%。 金融股涨跌不一，富国银行、摩根士丹利、美国银行小幅上涨，涨幅均不足1%；花旗集团、高盛、摩根大通均下跌，但跌幅普遍不足1%。 美股市场半导体板块多数收涨，其中英特尔涨逾3%，阿斯麦、意法半导体、博通均涨逾2%，英伟达、台积电均涨逾1%，超威半导体、ARM、微芯科技 小幅上涨。 能源板块全线收涨，其中SLB涨近2%，埃克森美孚、西方石油、康菲石油涨逾1%，雪佛龙涨近1%。 美股黄金股多数收涨，其中巴里克黄金、盎格鲁黄金、皇家黄金均涨逾1%，伊格尔矿业涨幅不足1%。 美股航空股全线收跌，美国航空重挫7%，美联航大跌逾3%，达美航空跌逾2%，西南航空跌超1%。 中概股涨 ...

美国总统特朗普当天下午对媒体表示，自己不认为美元已经下跌过度，并对当前美元表现予以肯定。他 这一表态进一步刺激美元指数快速下跌。 来源：新华社 由于投资者受多重预期推动卖出美元，美东时间27日，美元对一揽子货币全面走低。美元指数当天持续 走低，尾盘时大幅下跌，降至近4年来最低点。 美元指数中权重最大的欧元对美元汇率自2021年以来首次站上1.20整数关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has fallen over 1%, reaching its lowest level since April 2022, driven by market expectations and comments from former President Trump [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The trend of a weakening dollar has been ongoing, with a significant acceleration noted recently [1] - Trump's comments regarding the dollar's decline have intensified expectations for further depreciation [1] - Speculation about coordinated intervention by Japan and the US to support the yen has contributed to the dollar's significant depreciation against the yen [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting, with the current chair, Jerome Powell, set to conclude his term in May [1] - Trump has indicated that he will soon announce a successor to Powell, who will preside over the next two meetings in March and April [1]

一、贵金属期货 现货黄金与纽约期金近期呈现剧烈波动，周二（1月27日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨3.52%，刷新历史高 位至5187.37美元/盎司，亚太盘初以来在5013.93-5100美元区间震荡上行，04:00以来显著加速走高。 COMEX黄金期货涨1.82%，报5175.10美元/盎司，日内大部分时间持稳于5080美元附近，05:00美股收盘 时（在电子交易盘）刷新历史高位至5187.20美元；4月合约（较上个交易日尾盘）涨3.45%，报5217.30 美元，一度刷新历史高位至5225.80美元。 随后，现货黄金突破5190美元/盎司，日内涨3.63%，但亚太时段出现回调，失守5160美元/盎司，日内 跌0.42%。 纽约期金同样经历冲高回落，曾突破5220美元/盎司，日内涨1.95%，后失守5200美元/盎司，日内涨 1.55%。 现货白银与纽约期银波动更为剧烈，纽约期银突破113美元/盎司，日内涨6.66%，但随后失守111美元/ 盎司，日内涨4.73%；现货白银同步突破113美元/盎司，日内涨0.95%，后失守111美元/盎司，日内跌 0.88%。 此外，现货铂金跌幅扩大，最新下跌超8%，至每盎司25 ...