格隆汇10月24日｜美元指数DXY站上99，日内涨0.06%。 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 1美元兑换152.53日元，高于前一交易日的151.88日元；1美元兑换0.7952瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.7960瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3989加元，高于前一交易日的1.3988加元；1美元兑换9.3909瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4046瑞典克朗。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.04%，在汇市尾市收于98.936。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1618美元，高于前一交易日的1.1609美元；1英镑兑换1.3323美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3356美元。 新华财经纽约10月23日电美元指数23日上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 98.94, while most non-US currencies declined [1] - The euro rose by 0.07% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1618 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.24% against the US dollar, settling at 1.3325 [1] - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.11% against the US dollar, reported at 0.6506 [1] - The US dollar depreciated by 0.07% against the Japanese yen, at 152.4900 [1] - The US dollar also fell by 0.03% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.3988 [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.06% against the Swiss franc, now at 0.7947 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching a midpoint of 7.0918, the highest since October 15, 2024, indicating a strong signal of stability in the currency market [1][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB midpoint has been adjusted upwards by 966 basis points this year, reflecting a trend of moderate appreciation [1]. - Since late August, the RMB has shown a rapid appreciation against the USD, driven by optimistic sentiment and increased foreign capital inflow [7]. Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Multiple factors are expected to support a moderate appreciation of the RMB, including the recent announcement of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to boost growth, which enhances market confidence [5]. - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing well, with recent bilateral currency swap agreements signed with several central banks, providing liquidity support [5]. - The RMB's share in global payments reached 3.17% in September, maintaining above 2.9% for three consecutive months, indicating increased international usage [5]. Economic Context - The RMB's appreciation is supported by improvements in the Chinese economy, easing real estate and local debt issues, and a positive outlook from the IMF regarding China's growth [6]. - The US dollar index has decreased by 9.5% in the first nine months of the year, benefiting non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate, with expectations of reaching 7.0 against the USD by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, contingent on stable export conditions [9]. - The upcoming fourth quarter is typically a peak period for export enterprises to settle foreign exchange, which could lead to a positive feedback loop of appreciation [9]. Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of market forces in determining the currency's value [7]. - The PBOC has sufficient policy tools to manage exchange rate expectations and will adjust its approach based on domestic economic changes [9].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on October 21, with gold and silver prices plummeting after reaching historical highs, indicating a sharp correction in the market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold fell over 6% in a single day, dropping $232 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, with futures settling at $4,109.10 per ounce after hitting a peak of $4,381 [1][4]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with spot prices dropping 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce, and hitting a low of $47.85, marking the largest single-day drop since 2021 [3][4]. - Domestic markets mirrored this trend, with Shanghai gold futures dropping nearly 6% and Au99.99 contracts falling over 5% [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline was triggered by multiple negative factors, including a decrease in risk aversion following a joint statement from European leaders supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduced gold's safe-haven premium [4][5]. - The U.S. government's potential resolution of the "shutdown crisis" and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. further suppressed market demand for safe-haven assets [4]. - Profit-taking by investors contributed to the sell-off, as gold and silver had seen substantial gains earlier in the year, with gold up over 57% and silver over 67% [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The sell-off quickly affected capital markets, with significant declines in gold and silver mining stocks, including Harmony Gold and AngloGold, both dropping over 10% [6]. - In contrast, some leading domestic stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold saw significant trading volumes, indicating a divergence in market sentiment between institutional and retail investors [6]. - Retail gold prices in physical markets, such as those from Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook, actually increased by 2%-2.5%, highlighting a difference in expectations between physical consumption and financial investment [6]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Despite the sharp decline, many analysts believe this adjustment is a temporary correction within a strong market trend, with the underlying bullish factors for gold remaining intact [7]. - Continued central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and high sovereign debt levels are expected to support gold prices in the long term [7]. - HSBC has set a target price of $5,000 per ounce for gold by 2026, emphasizing ongoing central bank purchases and monetary easing as key drivers [7]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - Analysts predict a volatile short-term outlook for gold and silver, with expectations of limited downside for gold but greater fluctuations for silver [8]. - Citibank has shifted its short-term view to bearish, forecasting gold prices to stabilize around $4,000 per ounce in the next 2-3 weeks [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight due to disturbances in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, and the demand-side capacity utilization rate has increased. Considering the expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, it is advisable to wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price was 85,420, the trading volume was 112,173 lots, the open interest was 233,361 lots, and the inventory was 36,253 tons. The basis was -465, and the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 84,955 [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,658.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -6.36 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.005, and the total inventory was 346,499 [2]. 3.2. Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation - **Supply**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates has been negative, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. 3.3. Trading Strategy Wait for the price to fall and mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].

华泰期货研报认为，预计年内人民币仍以稳中偏强为主。若美联储降息节奏符合市场预期、美元趋势性 走弱，叠加国内政策持续托底、经济修复延续，人民币有望逐步靠近7.0-6.9区间。需关注后续美国通胀 与就业数据集中公布后的方向性修正风险。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）10月23日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘上涨，报 7.1230，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1245。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1262。 与此同时，截至9时30分，美元指数报99.0217。 同日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0918，上调36点。 ...

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is $4070.00, down $99.60 [1] - London Silver latest price is $47.76, down $2.19 [1] - London Platinum latest price is $1562.00, down $64.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is $1421.00, down $63.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is $58.50, up $1.26 [1] - LME Copper latest price is $10669.00, down $0.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory change not provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 691.69, down 57.67 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1052.37, down 6.29 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15597.61, down 79.03 [2] - SGE Silver inventory change not provided [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is -1.00 [2] Group 3: Other Related Data - Dollar Index latest is 98.91, down 0.06 [11] - Euro - US Dollar latest is 1.16, no change [11] - British Pound - US Dollar latest is 1.34, no change [11] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen latest is 151.97, up 0.04 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS data incomplete [11]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On October 22, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed down 0.07% at 3,913.76; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12,996.61; the ChiNext Index dropped 0.79% to 3,059.32. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.6679 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,592.57, down 15.30 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 22, the coke weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1,735.0, up 17.7. The coking coal weighted index rebounded weakly, closing at 1,224.3 yuan, up 17.7. The port coke spot market price declined, with the Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Many mainstream coke enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places initiated a second price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, but steel mills haven't responded. Coke enterprises' production is stable, with low inventory. The increase in coking coal price has squeezed coke enterprises' profits. Some steel mills have poor arrivals due to production control, but the high daily pig iron output still supports coke demand [1]. - In the coking coal market, the price of lean clean coal in Changzhi increased by 60 yuan to 1,250 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 1,100 yuan/ton. Due to over - production checks and safety inspections, the supply of coking coal is tightening, but downstream coke enterprises are cautious about purchasing high - priced resources, and the transaction price of some coal types has declined [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season, the US sugar futures fell on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined on Wednesday and slightly at night due to factors such as the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices. Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the next season is estimated to be 43.2 million tons, higher than the current season's 41.42 million tons. Indonesia aims to produce 3 million tons of white sugar in 2026, up from 2.8 million tons this year [2]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase and technical factors, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday, and continued to rise slightly at night supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons (4.07%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.70% to 69,600 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51% to 367,900 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [3]. Palm Oil - On October 22, after continuous small - scale fluctuations, the willingness of long - position holders to support the price weakened, and the palm oil futures deviated from the consolidation range and fell rapidly. The main contract P2601 closed with a negative line, at 9,164, down 1.40% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77%, with different increases in different regions [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 22, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA stopped updating key data. The market estimated that the US soybean harvest rate was 73% as of last Sunday, and the export sales volume as of October 16 was expected to be 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is predicted to reach 178.5 million tons. Domestically, the M2601 contract closed at 2,885 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, the oil mills' operating rate is high, but downstream replenishment is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term soybean meal price will fluctuate, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On October 22, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2601 contract closed at 12,220 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The increasing spread between standard and fat pigs has attracted second - fattening, which supports the short - term price. However, the supply pressure is high, and the terminal consumption is weak after the holidays. The short - term market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and capacity control policies [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be tight due to production disturbances at home and abroad, and refinery maintenance capacity increased in October. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the inventory shows a pattern of accumulation in China and reduction overseas. With uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the market has both long and short factors. Technically, pay attention to the support at 84,000 yuan/ton and the resistance at 86,000 yuan/ton [7]. Iron Ore - On October 22, the iron ore 2601 contract closed up 0.65% at 774 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume rebounded, and the domestic arrival volume declined from the high level. The pig iron output is still high but may decline as steel mills' profits shrink and the peak season ends. The short - term iron ore price will fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - On October 22, the asphalt 2601 contract rose 2.95% to 3,249 yuan. The asphalt capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded. However, due to cold air, the terminal project construction slowed down, and the demand peak season is approaching the end. The short - term asphalt price will fluctuate [7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,540 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 14 lots. The price of machine - picked cotton was stable with a slight increase, and the opening rates of downstream spinning mills were stable [8]. Logs - On October 22, the 2511 log futures opened at 802, with a low of 786, a high of 803, and closed at 795, with an increase of 68 lots in positions. The price tested the previous low. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The market is gradually reducing inventory, and attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes and macro - market sentiment [8]. Steel - On October 22, the rb2601 contract closed at 3,068 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 at 3,247 yuan/ton. Independent electric arc furnace steel mills are in loss, and the supply is expected to shrink. Downstream demand is average, with better sales of low - priced resources. The firm coking coal market supports the steel price. The steel market supply and demand are balanced, and the price will continue to fluctuate [9]. Alumina - On October 22, the ao2601 contract closed at 2,829 yuan/ton. The domestic bauxite market has regional differences, but the price is stable due to balanced supply and demand. The supply surplus pressure is increasing due to high domestic production and open import window. Some high - cost enterprises are close to the break - even point, and large - scale production cuts may start in November. The electrolytic aluminum plants have high inventory and low procurement enthusiasm [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 22, the al2512 contract closed at 21,045 yuan/ton. The spot market was average. Although the inventory decreased and holders wanted to support the price, the high and fluctuating Shanghai aluminum price suppressed downstream consumption. Enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the spot premium declined. The weighted average full cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum in October 2025 is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the falling alumina price, but the decline is limited due to the increase in electricity and auxiliary material costs [10].