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ETO Markets 市场洞察:美元走强暴击金价,但这个因素让黄金依然逆势上涨!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 05:02
Group 1 - Gold prices continue to fluctuate, with a recent dip to $3361 per ounce, influenced by a rebounding US dollar index [1][3] - Despite a 1% increase last Friday, reaching a two-week high of $3378.69 per ounce, gold closed at $3371.78 per ounce, supported by ongoing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][3] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating Russia-Ukraine situation, are driving additional demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - Market focus is on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which is expected to signal potential monetary policy adjustments [3] - The initial estimate for the US Q2 GDP growth rate is projected at 3.0%, with potential implications for the dollar and commodity prices depending on actual outcomes [5] - ETO Markets analysis indicates that while short-term volatility may increase, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the dollar index will remain key variables influencing gold's medium to long-term trends [5]
美元弱一定需要降息吗?
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-24 12:03
分析师:陶川 分析师:林彦 研究助理:武朔 海外市场点评 美元弱一定需要降息吗? 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_Author] 执业证号:S0100524060005 执业证号:S0100525030001 执业证号:S0100125070003 邮箱:taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱:linyan@mszq.com 邮箱:wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 杰克逊霍尔会议后,对美联储转鸽的预期上升,美元也应声下跌。一直以来, 美货币政策的松紧都是美元定价的重要路标,但回顾历史这并不是唯一路标。 ➢ 美联储 9 月重启降息已经是市场一致预期,且目前看来落空的概率不大。但 就像我们在报告《杰克逊霍尔会议:给降息预期"踩刹车"?》中,提到了后续 降息的节奏还是取决于数据。同时我们在之前一系列的报告中,也阐明了"通胀 不是不到,是时候未到"的观点。 ➢ 那么今年年底到明年年中(基数低,且鲍威尔 5 月前还在任)美联储是否有 概率重复之前 7 次 FOMC 暂停降息的"袖手旁观"模式。而这样会不会导致美 元指数就在当前位置窄幅波动甚至明显反弹? ➢ 今年我们在美国通胀的判断上犯了和一致预期一 ...
全球大类资产配置周报:美联储在分裂中降息预期升温,全球市场迎脉冲催化-20250824
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-08-24 11:55
Group 1: Global Asset Performance - The global major asset performance from August 18 to August 22, 2025, showed a mixed trend, with US stocks experiencing volatility while other markets performed better[38] - The US stock market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices narrowed their declines amid tech stock volatility[38] Group 2: Commodity Markets - The gold market remains under pressure due to fluctuating investor sentiment and geopolitical risks, impacting demand and pricing[2] - The oil market is influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and global economic recovery signals, with inventory levels affecting price stability[2] Group 3: Bond Market - US Treasury yields are expected to slightly decline in the coming quarters, with current levels facing limited adjustment due to mixed economic signals[18] - The Chinese bond market saw an upward adjustment in yields across various maturities, driven by reduced liquidity expectations and a shift in market sentiment[19] Group 4: Currency Market - The US Dollar Index showed a downward trend, decreasing from 98.15 to 97.72, reflecting a 0.12% decline due to weak retail sales data and market expectations of interest rate cuts[23] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the medium to long term, influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and China's economic recovery signals[37]
管涛:当前人民币汇率并未积累较强的升值压力和预期
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-08-24 09:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the Chinese yuan (RMB) exchange rate amid uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, highlighting the impact on cross-border capital flows and the overall economic environment [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - In July, the RMB exchange rate continued to show narrow fluctuations, with the CFETS RMB index and BIS currency basket index rising by 1.5% and 1.8% respectively, ending a six-month decline [1] - The SDR currency basket index also reversed a previous decline of 0.9% to increase by 1.5% [1] - Despite these increases, the three major exchange rate indices fell by 4.6%, 4.3%, and 3.2% respectively in the first seven months of the year, indicating that the RMB's passive appreciation has not adversely affected export competitiveness [1] Currency Market Dynamics - The RMB central parity rate strengthened for the third consecutive month in July, while the onshore spot exchange rate fell by 0.4% to around 7.19 [2] - The average deviation between the central parity and onshore spot rates increased from 0.1% to 0.3%, the highest in three months [2] - The average onshore exchange rate rose by 0.1% to 7.1727, marking the third consecutive month of appreciation [2] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In July, banks recorded a foreign exchange payment deficit of $7.7 billion, with the RMB payment deficit increasing to $43.3 billion, the third highest on record [3] - The foreign currency payment surplus decreased to $35.6 billion, but remained historically high [3] - The main contributor to the deficit was securities investment, which accounted for 160% of the shift from surplus to deficit [3] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks has increased, while there has been a significant reduction in holdings of RMB-denominated bonds, leading to record high outflows [2][3] - The reduction in bond holdings is attributed to a narrowing of forward dollar discounts, which decreased the attractiveness of RMB bond investments [3] Forward Exchange Transactions - In July, banks recorded a surplus in forward foreign exchange transactions for the fifth consecutive month, with a surplus of $45.6 billion, the highest in five months [4] - The increase in surplus was primarily driven by foreign exchange derivatives transactions, which rose by $16 billion [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The article indicates that the market does not exhibit strong expectations for RMB appreciation despite previous trends, suggesting a potential for slight depreciation pressure on the currency [2][5] - The overall supply of foreign exchange in the domestic market is believed to be greater than the reported surplus, indicating a more complex market dynamic [5]
8月金价下跌!现在入手黄金会亏吗?这几点琢磨明白再行动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 04:35
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, marking the first time in five years that prices fell below 1000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang adjusting their prices accordingly [3][6][9] - Zhou Dafu's gold jewelry is now priced at 1006 yuan per gram, down from a peak of 1029 yuan, while Zhou Liufu has dropped to 985 yuan, reflecting a decrease of nearly 40 yuan [6][9] - Banks offer more competitive prices for gold bars, with China Construction Bank quoting 786 yuan per gram, which is nearly 200 yuan cheaper than jewelry prices, making it an attractive option for investors [7][9] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a strong US dollar, which reached a year-high index of 108.3, and a reduction in geopolitical risks that traditionally drive investors to gold as a safe haven [9][10] - There has been a notable shift in investment flows, with funds that previously sought refuge in gold now moving towards Bitcoin and US stocks, leading to a significant reduction in gold ETF holdings by 45 tons over three months [9][10] - The overall demand for gold jewelry has plummeted, with sales dropping by 26% in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards renting rather than purchasing gold items [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of understanding the purpose of gold purchases, whether for personal use or investment, and advises consumers to be cautious and informed to avoid potential pitfalls [13][14] - It emphasizes the need for consumers to compare prices across different banks and stores, as discrepancies can lead to significant savings, with some banks offering gold bars at prices that vary by as much as 10 yuan per gram [14][21] - The article concludes with a portrayal of a consumer, Aunt Chen, who opts for a bank gold bar instead of jewelry, reflecting a more rational and cautious approach to gold investment among the general public [21][22]
美元指数跌0.94%,报97.72
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 00:42
Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.94%, closing at 97.72, indicating a weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 1.01% against the dollar, reaching a rate of 1.1723 [1] - The British pound rose by 0.85% against the dollar, with a new rate of 1.3527 [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 1.10% against the dollar, now at 0.6492 [1] - The dollar fell by 0.97% against the Japanese yen, closing at 146.9400 [1] - The dollar also declined by 0.59% against the Canadian dollar, with a rate of 1.3828 [1] - The dollar decreased by 0.92% against the Swiss franc, now at 0.8013 [1]
美元指数22日下跌
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-22 21:44
新华社纽约8月22日电 美元指数22日下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.92%,在汇市尾市收于97.716。 截至纽约汇市尾市,1欧元兑换1.1722美元,高于前一交易日的1.1610美元;1英镑兑换1.3526美元,高 于前一交易日的1.3419美元。 1美元兑换146.87日元,低于前一交易日的148.35日元;1美元兑换0.8011瑞士法郎,低于前一交易日的 0.8089瑞士法郎;1美元兑换1.3825加元,低于前一交易日的1.3899加元;1美元兑换9.4971瑞典克朗,低 于前一交易日的9.6200瑞典克朗。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:艾莲】 ...
美元指数在“鲍威尔放鸽日”跌约0.9%,完全抹去本周稍早的涨幅
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 19:25
周五(8月22日)纽约尾盘,ICE美元指数下跌0.89%,报97.741点,北京时间22:00美联储主席鲍威尔讲 稿披露前持续高位窄幅震荡,随后迅速跳水,本周累计下跌0.11%,周一至周五持续震荡上行,鲍威尔 讲话之前的亚太尾盘达到98.834点,随后跌至97.556点。彭博美元指数跌0.80%,报1201.29点,也在鲍 威尔释放鸽派信号之后跳空下挫,本周累跌0.14%,整体交投区间为1212.47-1196.66点。 来源:滚动播报 ...
美元指数下跌1.01%,报97.6562
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 15:21
来源:智能小浪 08月22日消息,美元指数盘中快速下跌,跌幅1.01%,截止23:11,报97.6562。 ...
美元指数盘中下跌100点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 15:21
08月22日消息,美元指数盘中下跌100点,跌幅1.02%,截止23:12,报97.6476。 来源:智能小浪 ...