周一黄金市场冲高回落，因市场多头获利了结影响以及市场在等待美联储政策声明，现货黄金市场昨日 表现为冲高回落并维持在区间内震荡，昨日最高至3451.19美元/盎司，最低至3382.76美元/盎司，最终 收盘于3385.14美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场小幅上扬，目前交投于3393.00美元/盎司附 近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币 政策的动向和美债收益率情况。 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.180-36.550，操作上可在这个 区间内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.180美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.700- 35.300美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.550美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.800-37.200美 元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应 根据自己的风险承受能力、投资目标和市场情况做出决策。 亚洲早盘策略： ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trends in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on upcoming developments [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 785.78 CNY per gram, down 1.37% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3418.9 USD per ounce, up 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: The market anticipates the Fed to maintain interest rates, but investors are keen on future policy signals, particularly regarding rate cuts. A dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while an emphasis on inflation risks could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran have previously driven gold prices up. However, Iran's willingness to restart nuclear negotiations has eased market fears, limiting further gold price increases. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks continue to provide support for gold as tensions may escalate again [2][3]. - Market Profit-Taking: On June 16, gold prices fell over 1% as traders locked in profits after reaching an 8-week high. Without new safe-haven demand, gold prices may continue to consolidate [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price movements are highly dependent on the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment. A clear signal of rate cuts could lead to a rise in gold prices, while the opposite could exert downward pressure [3]. - Although current geopolitical tensions have eased, they remain a potential source of support for gold prices. The market is also facing profit-taking pressures, and without new positive stimuli, gold prices may remain in a consolidation phase [3]. - In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainties and central bank gold purchases are expected to support an upward shift in gold price levels [3].

国内商品期货多数收涨，能化板块大面积飘红 ——中信期货晨报20250617 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

中长期来看，全球央行购金潮与美元信用体系隐忧构成黄金的战略支撑。中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，5月末储备达7383万盎司（约2296吨）；欧洲央行黄金占外汇储备比例升至20%，超越欧元成为第 二大储备资产。高盛预测，若美国债务展期压力加剧，2026年金价或突破4000美元/盎司。 分析师指出，若中东冲突外溢或美国经济数据疲软，金价可能突破3500美元关口；反之，若地缘局势缓 和或美联储释放鹰派信号，短期或回踩3400美元支撑位。市场需重点关注6月17日美国密歇根消费者信 心指数及6月下旬非农数据，这些因素或成为金价下一步走势的关键风向标。 美联储货币政策转向预期亦为黄金提供支撑。6月FOMC会议虽维持利率不变，但删除"通胀向2%目标 取得进展"的表述，鲍威尔强调"依赖数据调整政策"。市场押注美联储年内将降息两次（6月、12月）， 美元指数跌至97.8的4月以来低点，削弱了黄金的持有成本。此外，美国5月PPI同比增速降至2.6%，核 心PPI同比3.0%，创2024年8月以来新低，企业端通胀压力缓解强化了宽松预期。 技术面显示黄金短期动能强劲。伦敦金周线级别形成"上升旗形"形态，理论目标指向3500-3550美 ...

【导读】美股上涨，中概股脑再生科技盘中多次熔断 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐姐们啊，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股大涨 6月16日晚间，美股开盘大涨，道指涨近400点，纳指涨超1.4%，标普500指数涨超1%。 股市出现反弹，因为市场对以色列与伊朗的冲突可能仍将受到控制表示乐观。此前因冲突升级而飙升的油价也有所回落。 油价与金价双双下跌。WTI原油期货下跌逾3%，至每桶70.47美元，此前在隔夜交易中一度突破77美元。 上周五以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，交易员密切关注中东局势。伊朗随后发射导弹报复，使地区局势更加紧张。 不过，有报道称，伊朗通过中间方传达愿意在美国不参与以色列袭击的前提下重启谈判的意愿，这令市场在周一出现一丝乐观情绪。报道还称， 伊朗向以色列传达信息，希望双方将攻击控制在有限范围内。 另外还有报道援引消息人士称，伊朗已请求沙特和其他阿拉伯国家向美国总统特朗普转达希望促使以色列立即停火的要求，并愿意重启核协议谈 判。 Evercore ISI副董事长克里希纳·古哈（Krishna Guha）周一在一份报告中表示："市场从冲突可能维持在有限战争模式的前景中获得了些许安慰。我 们认为这是可能的，但在 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a new high in gold prices over the past two months [1] - Weak inflation data from the US has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing the attractiveness of gold assets [1] - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests buying gold on a pullback to the 3420-3415 range, with a stop loss at 3407 and a target of 3440-3460 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a critical resistance zone at 3455-3460; failure to break this level may lead to a technical pullback [3] - Key support levels to monitor include 3420, which is a short-term pivot point, and 3410-3405, which is a critical trend support level [3]

一、现货黄金基本面： ①地缘政治风险持续升温 中东局势因沙特与法国推动巴勒斯坦建国会议而复杂化，以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙进一步加剧区域紧张。同时，俄乌冲突升级，俄罗斯对乌克兰发动大规 模无人机袭击，波兰紧急部署战机应对边境威胁，东欧地缘风险显著上升。地缘不确定性直接推升避险需求，伦敦金现价格近期维持在3360.00美元/盎司以 上高位震荡，反映市场对冲突升级的担忧。 ②美国通胀与货币政策预期博弈 尽管美国5月CPI同比2.4%符合预期，核心CPI环比0.1%低于市场预测，但关税传导效应已开始显现，服装、家具等进口商品价格因特朗普政府关税政策出现 上涨，可能延缓通胀回落进程。美联储6月维持利率不变，但暗示下半年可能加息，市场对9月降息的预期降温至50%以下，美元指数在CPI数据公布后短暂 下滑至98.87，为黄金提供短期反弹动力。不过，消费者通胀预期回落（一年期通胀预期从3.6%降至3.2%）缓解了部分政策压力，黄金短期走势需关注6月 CPI数据对美联储政策路径的指引。 ③央行购金与去美元化趋势强化 综合来看，当前黄金基本面呈现"地缘风险主导、政策预期分化、央行购金托底"的格局。中东与俄乌冲突的持续发酵、美国通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, alongside other factors such as U.S. monetary policy and persistent global inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The key catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a rapid increase in risk aversion among investors [3]. - Other significant factors influencing gold prices include the U.S. fiscal situation, with concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and the weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that the duration and uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts significantly impact gold price movements, with central bank gold purchases and inflation also playing crucial roles [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing gold prices during clear risk events and should consider buying on dips instead [6][7]. - The difficulty of short-term timing in gold investments is highlighted, with recommendations for long-term strategies such as dollar-cost averaging [7][9]. - Despite potential risks, including a possible economic recovery that could strengthen the dollar, the overall sentiment remains that gold has substantial long-term investment potential due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term investment opportunity in gold is supported by its role as a hedge against extreme risks, including geopolitical conflicts and economic instability [9]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, providing further support for gold prices [9]. - The ongoing uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the medium to long term [9].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, nearing $3432 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven amid rising uncertainties, with the market reacting sensitively to any news [3][4] - There is a potential for short-term price corrections, and caution is advised against chasing high prices [3] Group 2: Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices have increased by 13%, approaching the $70 mark, primarily due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the security of oil supply routes [3][4] - The OPEC+ production cuts and underperformance of U.S. shale oil are contributing to a widening supply-demand gap, making price increases likely [3][4] - If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could potentially spike to $120, although this scenario is considered unlikely [3] Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, and trade tensions, which could impact market stability [4][5] - Key signals to monitor for long-term investors include any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the sustainability of OPEC+ production agreements [4] - Long-term asset performance will ultimately depend on cash flow generation rather than short-term market sentiment [5]

今日周四（6月12日）亚欧时段，现货黄金延续上涨走势。日内将可关注美国至6月7日当周初请失业金 人数(万人)、美国5月PPI年率及月率等数据，市场预期初请数据相对于前值减少，而会利空金价，PPI 数据预期好于前值，而会增强通胀预期，也会利空金价。但由于周初请数值变化不大，昨日CPI数据整 体又表现走低，故此，大概率晚间走势还是震荡走盘后继续走强收涨为主。 【要闻速递】 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，5月消费者物价指数(CPI)环比仅上涨0.1%，低于经济学家预期的 0.2%，同比上涨2.4%。核心CPI(剔除食品和能源价格)同样表现温和，环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨2.8%。 这一低于预期的通胀数据引发了市场对美联储货币政策的重新评估。独立金属交易商Tai Wong指出，核 心CPI涨幅意外偏低导致美元和美债收益率下跌，贵金属市场因此获得提振。市场普遍预期，美联储可 能在9月启动降息，CME FedWatch工具显示，交易商认为9月降息的可能性已升至70%。周三金价上涨 近1%，收报3354.93美元/盎司。 【黄金技术分析】 Economies.com的分析师今日最新观点：现货黄金上一交易日大幅跳涨，成功突破 ...