Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is expected to reveal significant insights into the ongoing debate between hawkish and dovish stances, particularly in light of political pressures and dissenting votes in July [1] Group 1 - The minutes will provide clues regarding the future pace of interest rate cuts and overall policy direction [1] - There is an intensifying "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve, influenced by external political pressures [1] - The July meeting saw two dissenting votes, indicating underlying tensions and differing views among policymakers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD, highlighting the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the dollar's future trajectory [1]. Currency Exchange Rates - On August 20, the onshore RMB opened slightly lower at 7.1865 against the USD, compared to the previous day's closing rate of 7.1820 [1]. - As of 9:30 AM, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.19168 against the USD [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.1384, which is a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Dollar Index - The USD index was fluctuating above the 98 mark, reported at 98.3926 as of 9:30 AM [1]. Future Outlook - HSBC China indicated that the future movement of the USD will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and the potential candidates for the next chairperson [1]. - With the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts, cyclical factors may become more dominant in influencing the dollar's performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it severely harms the U.S. housing industry and makes it difficult for citizens to obtain mortgages [2][2][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% during its monetary policy meeting on July 30, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates [2][2][2] Trump's Statements - Trump asserts that there are "no signs of inflation" and that "all signals point to a significant rate cut" [2][2][2] - He labels Powell as "a disaster" and has repeatedly called for substantial rate cuts [2][2][2] - Trump has indicated plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman ahead of schedule [2][2][2] Legal Considerations - The White House confirmed that Trump is considering legal action against Powell regarding the rising costs of renovations at the Federal Reserve headquarters [2][2][2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it severely harms the U.S. housing industry and makes it difficult for many Americans to obtain mortgages [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates [2] - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts and has suggested that Powell should resign [2] Group 2: Trump's Actions and Statements - Trump stated that there are "no signs of inflation" and that "all signals point to a significant rate cut" [2] - On August 13, Trump mentioned he would appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman ahead of schedule [2] - The White House confirmed that Trump is considering suing Powell over the rising costs of renovations at the Federal Reserve headquarters [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk preference remains stable, and gold is in a box - range oscillation due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] - Gold prices failed to continue the upward trend after a rebound and fell back to around $3340 per ounce. The gold market is affected by geopolitical negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price trend will mainly depend on the Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump proposed that the US will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial assistance in the security field. Zelensky is ready for a tri - party meeting and hopes for "all - round" security guarantees. European leaders have different stances on the Russia - Ukraine issue, with Germany calling for a cease - fire first and France suggesting a four - party meeting [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is "uneasy" about the rise in service inflation, seeing it as a sign of the stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy [2] - China's Premier chaired a meeting, emphasizing the need to consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery and complete the annual economic and social development goals, focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and stimulating consumption potential [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the counter - subsidy investigation of imported dairy products from the EU until February 21, 2026, citing the complexity of the case [2] Price Logic - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump proposed a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party summit, advocating "talking while fighting" and possible "territorial exchanges". Zelensky agreed to participate and demanded comprehensive security guarantees, while Russia also emphasized the need for reliable guarantees. There are obvious differences among parties on cease - fire, security, and territorial issues [3] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is rising, and the CME tool shows that the market expects at least two interest - rate cuts this year, which supports the gold price. Although the US dollar has received some buying support due to strong PPI and retail data recently, rising inflation expectations and falling consumer confidence still limit its upside potential [3] Outlook - Next week, focus on Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The weekly range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $36 and $40 [6] Commodity Index - On August 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities: the composite index was 2231.32, down 0.23%; the commodity 20 index was 2475.86, down 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2267.54, down 0.49% [45] Precious Metals Index - On August 18, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.77% [47]

本周四（8月21日），杰克逊霍尔央行年会将要召开。市场普遍关注美联储主席鲍威尔在该年会上发表 的讲话，特别是该讲话关于美联储未来货币政策走向的信息。 美国经济现在面临的最大风险就是不确定性。正如巴菲特先生说过的："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才 能够知道谁在裸泳"。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 JerryZang 有分析师认为，特朗普总统与鲍威尔可能在幕后达成了一些共识，因此9月重启降息是大概率事件。不 过，笔者认为，即便鲍威尔在9月议息会议上赞成降息，他也只是在权衡各种利弊后的权宜之计，未来 鲍威尔不会在降息问题上采取积极的行动。 距离鲍威尔明年5月离职还有9个月时间，而特朗普总统在此期间又很难使鲍威尔提前离任，这无疑会造 成美国经济在高利率环境下承受更长时间的负面压力，增加美国经济下行的风险，加大美国经济面临的 不确定性。 有华尔街机构认为，鲍威尔会在该年会上给市场普遍热议的美联储9月议息会议上重启降息泼冷水，甚 至有分析师开始怀疑美联储是否会在9月降息。 笔者认为，鲍威尔一段时间以来 ...

Group 1 - Recent trade agreement between the US and EU on tariffs is expected to weaken the EU's export competitiveness, potentially dragging down economic growth prospects in the region [1] - The outcome of US-EU tariff negotiations raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will influence the European Central Bank's decisions [1] - Despite the challenges, the European economy shows resilience, and the weak dollar environment may provide value for European equities [1] Group 2 - There is a cautious market expectation regarding interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England within the year [1] - Investment in growth sectors within the Eurozone remains insufficient, indicating a potential area of concern for future economic performance [1] - A global shift in investment portfolios towards Europe is anticipated to support the euro [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy direction. The market should focus on three key signals: labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and emphasis on policy flexibility [2][36] - Powell's speech at the meeting is likely to maintain a "neutral to hawkish" stance, emphasizing "inflation resilience" and "policy flexibility" to guide the market to reduce bets on "consecutive rate cuts" [3] - The Fed's core goal of "balancing inflation and growth" remains unchanged. The game between the lagged impact of tariffs and economic downside risks will be the main line of future monetary policy [3] Summary by Directory Introduction: Policy Weathervane Significance of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is a key platform for the Fed to release major policy signals. The policy statements at this meeting often set the tone for subsequent monetary policies [4][7] Current Economic Background and Complexity of the Fed's Policy Environment Macro - economic and Policy Pressure Intertwined - The US economy shows multiple contradictory features. Inflation pressure is structurally differentiated, with core CPI showing more resilience. The labor market is cooling but still has some strength, and external policy pressure has increased significantly [8][11][13] - As of August 19, the market's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September has reached 90%, and some institutions have even raised the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut [13] Fed's Internal Disagreement - The dovish camp is concerned about economic downside risks and employment market slowdown, advocating for near - term rate cuts. The hawkish camp emphasizes labor market resilience and inflation rebound risks, advocating maintaining high interest rates [14] Key Economic Data Analysis July US CPI Data - July CPI showed "overall stability and strong core." Energy prices declined, food prices were stable, while core services inflation was strong. Different commodity items were affected differently by tariffs and demand [15] July US PPI Data - July PPI showed an unexpected increase, mainly driven by services. The increase in PPI may not fully reflect fundamental inflation pressure, but it indicates potential upward risks for future CPI [22][23] Root Causes of the July CPI and PPI Divergence - The divergence between CPI and PPI reflects the complexity of inflation transmission, including a 1 - 3 - month time lag in cost transfer and possible statistical differences [25] Possible Scenarios of Powell's Speech and Policy Signal Analysis - Scenario 1: Absence from the meeting. This is a "passive neutral" strategy to avoid market volatility and leave policy decisions to economic data before the September meeting [27] - Scenario 2: Deliver a "non - substantial" speech. This is to maintain policy options' openness and postpone the final decision to the September meeting [28] - Scenario 3: Moderately release rate - cut signals. This requires further deterioration of employment data and significant escalation of external pressure from the Trump administration [28] Market Expectations and Future Monetary Policy Outlook Short - term Market Expectations and Risks - Market expectations of the number of rate cuts this year are around 3 times, but this is at risk of adjustment. US economic downside risks are accumulating, making short - term policy expectations more complex [34] Medium - to - Long - term Monetary Policy Path - The lagged impact of tariffs will be a key constraint on the Fed's policy in the next 1 - 2 years. In Q4 2025, inflation pressure may intensify, and in 2026, inflation is likely to fall, opening up room for significant rate cuts [34] Conclusion: Core Observation Points of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy. The market should focus on labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and policy flexibility [36]

Group 1 - The core driver of inflation risk in the U.S. is the significant increase in import tariffs, with the effective tariff rate rising to 9.1% as of June 2025, an increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1][10][20] - The current inflation in core goods is primarily driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels in categories such as furniture, apparel, and leisure goods [1][10][28] - The direct impact of tariffs has been significant, with import prices rising approximately 5.4% since early March, indicating that about half of the tariff burden is passed on to consumer prices [1][10][30] Group 2 - The indirect effects of tariffs on domestic goods have shown a slowing trend, with price increases for domestic products that are similar to imported goods starting to decelerate from April onwards [1][10][35] - The correlation between tariffs and inflation increased from March to May but has not deepened further, suggesting a weakening relationship [1][10][39] - If the effective tariff rate rises to 15%, it is estimated that U.S. goods prices could increase by approximately 2.8% based on the average import dependence of 37% and a transmission coefficient of 1/2 [1][10][50] Group 3 - Service inflation has not shown a trend of significant rebound, with core service inflation being the largest contributor to nominal inflation, but expected to be dragged down by a weakening labor market [2][11][54] - The nominal Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to peak at around 3.2% in December 2025, followed by a gradual decline to approximately 2.3% by mid-2026 [2][11][70] - The overall inflation risk is expected to be lower than market expectations, indicating a potential for further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2][11][73]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced overall fluctuations, with gold prices showing a slight decline amid cautious market sentiment ahead of key geopolitical meetings and the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference [2][3]. Market Analysis - As of the close on August 18, 2025 December gold futures fell by $3.7 to $3378 per ounce, marking a decrease of 0.11%. During the trading session, gold prices briefly reached the $3400 mark [2][3]. - The market is closely monitoring the bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as the Jackson Hole conference where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak. There is a prevailing cautious sentiment, leading to a lack of clear upward or downward drivers for gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Current expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a high probability of a rate cut in September, with a 16.9% chance of maintaining rates and an 83.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Some analysts suggest that there is speculation about a potential 50 basis point cut, which could significantly boost gold prices if realized [3][4]. Silver Market - The September silver futures price closed up by 4.5 cents at $38.065 per ounce, reflecting a 0.12% increase. The December silver futures price also rose by 4 cents to $38.560 per ounce, with a 0.1% increase [4].