II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | 2025/7/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | E | 现值 | 1763 | 1343 | 2089 | 1557 | 4124 | 2101 | | Alle | 前值 | 1862 | 1369 | 2578 | 1619 | 4717 | 2030 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -5.27% | -1.92% | -18.97% | -3.83% | -12.57% | 3.50% | | ਵਿ | | SCFIS ...

8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 蜈致 据 日报 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/07/11 | | 指标 | | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城大烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | 77 74 | 川渝液化气 | 4350.00 | 4350. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 11.64 | 11.72 | 0. 09 | | | | 太仓 | 2375.00 | 2380.00 | 5.00 | 昨 ...

Group 1: A500ETF Performance - A500ETF Jiashi has a turnover rate of 7.59% with a transaction volume of 1.107 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 3.051 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of A500ETF Jiashi reached 14.38 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 909 million shares over the past six months [3] - As of July 10, 2025, A500ETF Jiashi's net value has increased by 8.82% over the past six months, with the highest monthly return since inception being 3.55% and the longest consecutive monthly increase being 2 months [3] Group 2: Index and Market Analysis - Pacific Securities notes that the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully broken through 3,500 points, but the current trading volume and volatility are not comparable to the market conditions in late September last year, indicating a more oscillatory upward trend [4] - Multiple indices have broken through their oscillation ranges, but the options volatility remains low, with trading volume around 1.5 trillion yuan, which is inconsistent with the previous year's simultaneous increase in volume and volatility [4] - According to Caixin Securities, the A-share market is currently in a continuation phase of the upward trend since the 9.24 market, showing a wide oscillation pattern, with upcoming policy announcements expected to be crucial for breaking out of this range [4] Group 3: Top Weighted Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Yangtze Power, Midea Group, Zijin Mining, BYD, and Dongfang Fortune, collectively accounting for 20.67% of the index [3] - The individual stock performances include Kweichow Moutai up by 0.88%, Ping An Insurance up by 2.17%, and BYD up by 1.27%, among others [6] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jiashi linked fund (022454) for exposure to the top 500 A-share companies [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic liquid caustic soda market in China is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda rising in Shandong and Guangdong, while most regions remain stable [1] - In Shandong, increased downstream demand and limited inventory among chlor-alkali enterprises have contributed to price increases for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda [1] - The main market prices for 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong are between 800-885 RMB/ton, and for 50% ion membrane caustic soda, they are between 1300-1320 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of July 10, the weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country is 85.19%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 187,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.06% from July 2, while in Shandong, the inventory increased by 1.93% to 58,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall spot market remains stable, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary demand support from key downstream sectors [3] - The supply-demand imbalance is limited, but high profits are encouraging increased production, while trading activity between alumina plants and traders is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and speculative demand [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have increased, with significant regional price differences observed. The PVC futures market has shown an upward trend after fluctuating within a range, while traders' basis quotes have weakened, leading to higher fixed price offers without price advantages for point pricing transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low, with most buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a sluggish spot market transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 75.07%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the previous week. The operating load rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 76.93%, down 3.8%, while the ethylene method PVC powder load rate is 70.23%, up 4.77%. As of July 10, the social inventory of PVC has increased by 2.89% to 591,800 tons compared to the previous month, but has decreased by 7.66% year-on-year. The inventory in East China is 539,300 tons, and in South China is 52,600 tons [2] PVC Market Outlook - The spot market prices for PVC have stabilized, with prices pushed up by the atmosphere of the black commodities market. Currently, the supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal shift towards increased supply and reduced demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement during the off-season remains low, and foreign trade export orders are average, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory. A substantial increase in inventory may require a significant decline in exports. However, due to a recent improvement in the macroeconomic environment and a collective rebound in commodities, a sharp decline in prices is unlikely in the short term, with the PVC market showing a relatively strong performance. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the time being [3]

Group 1 - The market showed positive performance on July 10, stabilizing above 3500 points, with a potential recovery towards the previous high of 3674 points [1] - Trading volume was relatively high, nearing 1.5 trillion, with over 3000 stocks rising at one point, although the average stock price experienced a slight decline [1] - The outlook for the market is optimistic, with an increased probability of a main upward trend, indicating that significant capital continues to flow into major stocks above 3500 points [1] Group 2 - There are short-term concerns due to the existing high point structure on the 60-minute chart, which requires monitoring of the next day's price action [2] - If the market does not rise, there may be a short-term adjustment, but it is expected to be minor, with potential for further upward movement after a brief consolidation [2]

一、证监会调整了IPO发行节奏，IPO又开始加速了。截至今天收盘，估计很多人都选择了银行股。其实这没啥丢人的，古话说得好，"识时务者为俊杰"。 既然打不过，那最好的办法就是加入。毕竟，谁也不知道这波大盘会涨到哪儿。 三、科技目前表现的低迷是因为银行的红利模式主导。 等这种情形不再成为市场主流时，估计就轮到了科技为代表的成长风格，我觉得未来真正能够出现赚钱效应的，还是要看科技股的表现，科技同时也代表成 长。 在如今科技浪潮下，牛市行情科技怎么能缺席呢。无论是券商还是科技，基本上都整理了很长时间，目前的位置都相对较低，是银行将指数拉出空间之后， 很好的上场表演。 接下来，只要还是指数行情，银行股就还会涨，直到出现一个阶段性拐点。这个拐点可能是指数急跌，也可能是龙头倒下，或者是行情换挡。在这个拐点没 出现之前，市场大概率还会延续这种走势。如果非让我对指数做一个预期的话，至少现在这里还不是顶。从周线和月线来看，指数还有上行空间。短期即便 有调整，从指数的角度来看，机会还是大于风险的。 二、最近的港股涨的没A股市场猛，或许是因为IPO吧。 遥想前段时间港股还意气风发，转眼间却被密集的新股发行压弯了腰。这种似曾相识的场景 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming disclosure of mid-year reports by listed companies is expected to become a mainstream market focus, with Zhongyan Chemical set to report on July 15 [1] - Companies with significantly better-than-expected performance, such as Huayin Power with a projected increase of over 40 times in earnings, have seen substantial stock price increases, with a 76.72% rise in July [1] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with sustained earnings growth during the mid-year report season, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, biomedicine, machinery, and Huawei's supply chain [1] Group 2 - Investors should pay attention to companies with large absolute net profit increases, while also considering the sustainability of future earnings growth and valuation levels [2] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on blue-chip stocks in banking, non-bank financials, and high-dividend sectors [2] - Investment strategies should consider three main lines: sectors with mid-year report highlights like gold and technology hardware, high-growth opportunities less affected by economic cycles such as the AI industry, and industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a mild recovery environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Northbound capital holdings in A-shares have increased significantly due to valuation recovery, policy benefits, and economic resilience, with a total market value reaching 2.29 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, marking an increase of over 2% from the previous quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the total market value of Northbound capital holdings reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% compared to the end of Q1 2025 [1]. - The total number of shares held by Northbound capital exceeded 123.5 billion, reflecting an increase of over 3% from the previous quarter [1]. - Compared to the end of 2024, the market value of Northbound capital holdings increased by over 80 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Industry and Stock Performance - The sectors with the highest market value held by Northbound capital include electric power equipment, banking, electronics, food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, non-bank financials, automotive, home appliances, machinery, and non-ferrous metals [2]. - The top ten stocks held by Northbound capital as of Q2 2025 are Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, Yangtze Power, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zijin Mining, Huichuan Technology, and Mindray [2]. - The investment direction of Northbound capital has shifted from core assets to traditional industries and from old tracks to new tracks, with significant increases in sectors such as non-bank financials, public utilities, and communication [2][3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is exhibiting a "dumbbell" characteristic, with technology growth stocks and sectors like biomedicine and new consumption performing well, while stable dividend stocks are favored by conservative investors [3]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth are expected to further boost consumption, enhancing investor confidence and potentially attracting more capital into the market [3].

Core Insights - As of July 10, 147 A-share listed companies have forecasted their first-half performance, with 129 companies expecting profits [1] - Among these, 19 companies, including Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. (Industrial Fulian), anticipate a net profit attributable to shareholders exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - Industrial Fulian leads in net profit scale, projecting a net profit of 11.958 billion to 12.158 billion yuan for the first half, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.84% to 39.12% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Industrial Fulian's cloud computing business experienced rapid growth in Q2, with overall revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year [2] - AI server revenue surged by over 60% compared to the same period last year, while revenue from cloud service provider servers increased by more than 150% [2] - The revenue from 800G switches reached three times the total for the entire year of 2024, driven by rising AI demand [2] Group 2: Other Companies' Performance - Other companies such as Muyuan Foods, Luxshare Precision, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Zhejiang Xinheng are expected to have a net profit attributable to shareholders exceeding 3 billion yuan for the first half [3] - Companies like Yunnan Aluminum, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, and Guangdong Haida Group are projected to have net profits exceeding 2 billion yuan [3] - Companies including Zhejiang Juhua, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and TCL Technology are expected to report net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Profit Growth - Datang Huayin Power is expected to have the highest year-on-year profit growth, projecting a net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, an increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan compared to the previous year [3] - Several companies, including Shandong Xianda Agricultural Chemicals and China Northern Rare Earth, anticipate a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 100% [4] - The market is shifting focus towards fundamental verification as half-year performance reports are released, marking the start of the half-year report market trend [4]