6月11日晚间，美国劳工部公布5月CPI数据，总CPI同比2.4%（预期2.5%），核心CPI同比2.8%（预期2.9%），环比仅涨0.1%（预期0.2%），双双低于市场 预期。数据公布后，现货黄金短线飙升12美元至3376.3美元/盎司（6月12日亚盘最高），创本周新高；10年期美债收益率暴跌5个基点至4.38%，市场对美联 储年内降息两次的预期升至72%。 二、黄金、美债齐涨：避险与政策预期共振 | ● 日期: 20250611 | | 美国CPI月率报告 1 | | CD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品 | 日期 | 今值(%) | 预测值(%) | 前值(% | | 美国CPI月率 | 2025年06月11日 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 一、CPI"降温"超预期，降息博弈白热化 此次CPI数据的核心亮点在于通胀黏性松动： 商品价格全线回落：新车（-0.3%）、二手车（-0.5%）、家具（-0.8%）价格环比下跌，显示特朗普政府25%汽车关税尚未传导至零售端，供应链压力缓 解。 服务通胀增速放缓：住房租金环比0.4%（前值0.5%），医疗服务价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has significantly increased its loan loss reserves, indicating a preparation for potential economic deterioration, contrasting with market expectations of a slight decrease in provisions [1][2]. Group 1: Loan Loss Reserves - Citigroup's credit costs are expected to rise by hundreds of millions compared to the previous quarter, driven by an increase in credit reserves [1]. - The total loan loss provisions for the first quarter were $2.72 billion, with analysts predicting a slight decrease to $2.69 billion for the second quarter [1]. - The bank's internal assessment appears more pessimistic than market sentiment, suggesting a proactive stance against potential economic challenges [1]. Group 2: Credit Risk and Corporate Exposure - Approximately 80% of Citigroup's corporate exposure is to high-rated issuers, with an even higher percentage outside the U.S. [2]. - Despite the increase in provisions, Citigroup's executives express confidence in the overall credit quality of their corporate client portfolio [1][2]. Group 3: Performance Expectations in Different Business Lines - Citigroup's trading divisions for equities and fixed income are expected to show strong performance, with projected year-over-year revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits for the second quarter [4]. - Investment banking fees are anticipated to grow at a moderate single-digit rate, although this sector faces "further uncertainty" [4][5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - The cautious approach of Citigroup reflects wider macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the impact of U.S. trade policies and tax legislation [6]. - Other major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are also issuing warnings about the economic outlook, indicating a collective concern among financial institutions [7][8]. Group 5: Sentiments from Industry Leaders - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the urgency of addressing the growing deficit, labeling it unsustainable [8]. - JPMorgan's CEO has criticized previous government spending and monetary policies as potentially leading to a bond market crisis [8]. - BlackRock's CEO has expressed a belief that the economy may already be in a recession, highlighting the need for investors to reassess optimistic market perceptions [9].

Group 1: Dollar Credit and Economic Dynamics - The recent high interest rate environment has led to a significant cooling of private credit expansion in the U.S., indicating a fragile balance for the dollar[1] - The correlation between global capital inflow and the dollar index is weak, primarily due to the mirrored relationship between U.S. capital inflow and trade deficits[6] - U.S. residents' net worth is positively correlated with the dollar index, with stock net worth showing a stronger correlation than housing net worth[21] Group 2: Risks and Policy Challenges - There is a notable tail risk of a "debt-recession" spiral if economic policies do not adjust significantly, particularly under the current high interest rates[26] - The U.S. government’s pursuit of trade barriers and a weaker dollar could harm resident welfare and exacerbate the tail risks associated with high bond yields[32] - The ongoing high interest rates and low growth environment raise questions about the sustainability of government debt, potentially leading to a "debt-recession" spiral[34]

Core Viewpoint - Lady Gaga's return to the stage symbolizes a potential economic recovery, as her performances resonate with the cultural and emotional landscape of the current times, reminiscent of the post-2008 financial crisis era [5][51][58]. Group 1: Lady Gaga's Cultural Impact - Lady Gaga's unique style and music have made her a cultural icon, particularly during economic downturns, where her songs provided a sense of escapism and hope [10][53]. - The nostalgia associated with Lady Gaga's music reflects a longing for the past, particularly among those who grew up during her rise to fame, indicating a cyclical nature of cultural memory [62][41]. - Her performances, such as the recent one at Coachella, have been described as epic and reminiscent of her earlier work, showcasing her ability to blend art and music in a way that captivates audiences [16][27]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Music - The concept of "skirt index" suggests a correlation between women's fashion and market trends, indicating that Lady Gaga's performances may signal a bullish market [51]. - The emergence of "recession pop" music during economic downturns highlights how artists like Lady Gaga create music that resonates with the struggles of the times, encouraging people to dance and celebrate despite hardships [53][58]. - Historical patterns show that during economic challenges, upbeat and danceable music tends to dominate the charts, as people seek comfort and joy through music [60][61]. Group 3: Generational Influence - Lady Gaga's influence extends beyond music; she has become a symbol of empowerment and self-acceptance for many, particularly among marginalized groups [50][42]. - The nostalgia for Lady Gaga's music among millennials and Gen Z reflects a shared cultural experience that shaped their identities during formative years [49][62]. - The resurgence of interest in her music and performances indicates a desire for connection to a more optimistic past, as current generations navigate uncertain futures [64][78].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车-2025-06-12 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250603 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 48.30 | 50.40 | 51.70 | | 20250605 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.10 | 50.70 | 54.00 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | 202505 ...

若债务违约真的发生，美国的信用体系将遭遇重创，美元在全球供应链中的地位可能动摇。美元作为全球主要结算货币，依赖美国主权信用。一 旦违约，全球股市可能暴跌，避险资产如黄金和美债的收益率倒挂将大幅攀升，全球经济复苏也可能因此遭遇重大冲击。尽管CBO推迟了"X 日"的预测，问题的本质并未得到有效解决。市场对"美式债务游戏"的信任已经逐渐消耗，长期来看，这可能加速全球去美元化进程。 美国债务违约风险的"X日"临近，美联储的最新发声引发市场关注。与此同时，亚洲散户纷纷趁机低买美股，短期获利后迅速撤离。对于这一局 面，特朗普政府仍在推动政策以扩大财政赤字，并对解决美国债务危机做出一系列大胆尝试。 2025年初，美国债务上限重新生效。目前，美国财政部通过采取"非常规措施"来维持财政运转，这些措施包括临时会计操作等，避免了立即触发 债务违约。美国历史上已进行过103次债务上限的提升，然而此次违约风险日益严峻。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预测，如果债务上限未能如 期提高，特朗普政府可能会在2025年8月中旬耗尽这些"非常规措施"，最迟会在9月底面临"X日"——即无法再偿还债务，进入违约状态。 虽然该预测比CBO三月的预期有所推 ...

报告导读： 随着近期美元信用折价导致的高利率环境持续，美国私人信贷扩张明显降温， 美元来到一个脆弱边界的紧平衡，美国当局需要在远景目标（长期贸易回流）与短期风险 （潜在债务危机）之间重新平衡，一旦政策端对于基本面恶化的响应速度不及时、态度不 彻底，那么美元资产的尾部风险不容忽视。反之亦然。 过去模式：高增长、高利率 — > 强美元 逻辑上，一国汇率强弱理应取决于 全球资本对该国货币的持有意愿（资本净流入） 。 但我们拆解美国的 国际收支平衡表发现，全球资本净流入与美元指数的相关性并不强，本质在于美国的资本净流入与贸易净 流出是镜像关系（孪生赤字）， 很难说资本净流入是由于对于美元资产吸引力更强，还是贸易竞争力更 差； 进一步看结构，我们发现美元指数与 股权直接投资 的净流入相关性最强，最近几年与 债权证券投资 的净 流入相关性更强。说明 美元强弱本质上取决于美国投资回报率预期（高息美元、增长预期） 。 美元信用的内在支撑：私人部门财富扩张 美国经济的本质驱动是 美国私人部门资产负债表的良性扩张，带来净资产的上涨。 而净资产的上涨进一 步抬升增长预期和利率水平，带来全球资本的持续涌入。 因此我们发现，美国居民净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has temporarily suspended the injunction against certain tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process, which is aimed at balancing the interests of all parties involved [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Court Decisions - The Federal Circuit's order emphasizes that the suspension of the injunction is not a final judgment but a measure to balance interests during litigation [1]. - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) previously ruled that President Trump could not impose unlimited tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3]. - The Federal Circuit has expedited the case, requiring oral arguments from both parties by July 31 [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. Department of Justice argued that halting the tariffs could jeopardize sensitive trade negotiations and potentially harm the U.S. economy [1]. - If the IEEPA-related tariffs are revoked, the effective tariff rate could decrease by 10 percentage points to 6%, but this change would not fully mitigate the losses from the trade war [5]. - The World Bank has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth down from 2.3% to 1.4% [5]. Group 3: Political and Strategic Considerations - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's ability to maintain tariff barriers through other legal avenues or executive powers [1][6]. - The potential use of various trade laws to impose tariffs has been acknowledged, but the effectiveness of these options remains questionable [6]. - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is expected to exacerbate the national budget deficit, with negative effects on economic growth and consumer prices [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：美商务部长讲话增添市场对会谈希望，金价震荡；美国三大股指全线收 涨，欧洲三大股指涨跌互现；美元指数涨0.04%报99.05，离岸人民币小幅贬值报 7.1892；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.4个基点报4.470%；COMEX黄 金期货跌0.30%报3344.80美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中美经贸磋商机制首次会议、美国5月CPI、美国5月政府预算、 欧央行行长和委员讲话、美国财长贝森特在众议院委员会作证。中美伦敦会谈预期 有所反复，金价继续震荡。沪金溢价扩大至4.15元/克 ...

（转自：金斧子财富） 权益市场回顾与展望 5月全球市场普遍反弹，重要股指普遍上涨。其中美股涨势最为凶猛，港股紧跟其后，A股涨势较弱。 美股市场上中美10日达成日内瓦协议，在关税上暂时停战，大幅修复市场风险偏好。此外，美国企业一 季度业绩表现普遍亮眼，科技股更是实现领涨，市场资金情绪较强，纳斯达克全月上涨9.56%。展望后 市，美国4月PCE同比增速低于市场预期，通胀似有降温趋势，其5月PMI表现也不及预期，经济或面临 衰退危机。特朗普政策行为极具不确定性与美联储在降息上持观望态度，仍需保持谨慎。 港股方面，5月港股上涨同样受中美和谈的利好影响，同时也受国内稳增长政策大幅出台影响，市场预 期改善，恒生指数涨幅超5%。5月南向资金全月净流入456.17亿港元，相比前几月较低，资金情绪面或 仍在修复。 5月A股市场反弹回暖，红利风格相对占优。月内受中美缓和、降准落地与汇金托底等因素影响，指数 出现回升。4月社融存量有所抬升，或受低基数影响，预计5月社融存量同比将下行，居民与企业部门信 贷动力仍弱，内需发动支撑经济仍需时间。展望后市，市场预计依旧震荡，政策主线仍以科技与消费等 景气板块为主，在不确定性宏观背景下高股息 ...