Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle [2] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially leaves office [2] - Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the context of large price fluctuations, and not to open new long or short positions, while being aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines [2] Summary by Related Content Market Quotes and Data - On January 8, 2026, Shanghai gold fell 0.31% to 1002.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.99% to 19020.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4470.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 78.45 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.15%, and the US dollar index was 98.73 [1] - The global major silver ETF holdings continued to decline. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.4 tons yesterday and another 18.33 tons today. The BCOM commodity index rebalancing time is approaching, and major exchanges have raised margin levels, leading the market to focus on the risk of silver price decline from high levels [1] - The US employment data released yesterday was all weaker than expected. The number of ADP employed people in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTS job openings in November was 7.146 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.6 million and the previous value of 7.67 million. After the data release, the upward range of gold and silver prices was limited [1] Price and Volume Data of Gold - COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 4467.10 US dollars/ounce, down 0.86% from the previous day, and its trading volume increased by 17.87% to 197,100 lots, while the position decreased by 2.08% to 481,900 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1132 tons [5] - LBMA gold's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 4438.00 US dollars/ounce, down 1.17% from the previous day [5] - SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 5.79% to 3.26 million lots, the position decreased by 0.68% to 3.163 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97.65 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.28% to 50.555 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 63.13 tons, up 42.67% from the previous day, and the position decreased by 3.98% to 190.92 tons [5] Price and Volume Data of Silver - COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 77.98 US dollars/ounce, down 3.99% from the previous day, the position increased by 1.08% to 157,400 lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.77% to 13,864 tons [5] - LBMA silver's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 78.99 US dollars/ounce, up 0.65% from the previous day [5] - SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 12.02% to 32.443 million lots, the position decreased by 1.08% to 6.752 million lots, the inventory decreased by 4.82% to 553.43 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.90% to 35.166 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 823.59 tons, down 6.05% from the previous day, and the position increased by 1.33% to 3,033,278 tons [5] Price Structure and Spread Data - The report provides data on the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, London silver - COMEX silver, Shanghai silver, and Ag(T + D) - Shanghai silver [20][21][33][35] - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 2.72 yuan/gram (- 12.10 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 1.96 yuan/gram (- 8.72 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 1835.33 yuan/kilogram (8.16 US dollars/ounce), and the data of the SGE - LBMA silver spread was also provided [49]

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, showing high instability but resilience [1] - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [2][3] Inflation and Price Predictions - The average predicted year-on-year CPI growth for December 2025 is 0.8%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2% [5][6] - CPI predictions range from a minimum of 0.5% to a maximum of 0.9%, indicating a slight increase from November's 0.7% [6] - The PPI predictions range from -2.3% to -1.9%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's -2.2% [6] Industrial and Investment Growth - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in December 2025 is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's 4.8% [9][10] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by an average of -2.2%, showing a recovery from November's -2.6% [11] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by -15.8%, with signs of a narrowing decline in transaction volumes [12] Trade and Export Forecasts - The trade surplus for December 2025 is predicted to be $1113.5 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous month [13][14] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5%, down from 5.9% in the previous month, while imports are forecasted to increase by 0.7% [14][15] Financing and Monetary Policy - New loans are projected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan in December 2025, recovering from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [15][16] - The total social financing is expected to average 1.8 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 2.5 trillion yuan [16][17] - M2 growth is predicted to remain at 8%, consistent with November's figures [18] Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with an increase in the scale of government debt and continued support for local debt initiatives [20][21] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Economists expect future policies to maintain continuity, stability, and flexibility, with a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [1][24][26]. Economic Indicators - The Chief Economist Confidence Index for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [5]. - Predictions for December 2025 include a CPI year-on-year growth rate of 0.8%, a PPI year-on-year decline of 2%, and an industrial added value growth rate of 4.9% [1][7][10]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 2.2%, while social retail sales are projected to grow by 1.8% [1][9][11]. - The trade surplus is forecasted at $1113.5 billion, with new loans expected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan [1][15][18]. - M2 money supply is predicted to grow by 8% year-on-year [21][22]. Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the use of various monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth [1][24][25]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in central budget investments and a focus on optimizing expenditure structures [5][24][26]. Sector-Specific Insights - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a predicted decline in real estate development investment of 15.8% [12][14]. - Consumer spending is under pressure, with retail sales growth expected to slow due to seasonal effects and high base comparisons from the previous year [9][10]. - Manufacturing investment remains stable, supported by exports and production, despite a decline in foreign investment impacting private sector investment [6][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic macro - narrative is positive with rising expectations of incremental monetary policy. The fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is a demand for iron ore replenishment, and supply is entering the off - season. However, the price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2][3]. - The expected high - price range is 810 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - disk (FE02) price of about 105.5 - 107.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage with prices maintaining a narrow - fluctuation trend. This is because the inventory pressure at the finished - product end is continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation rebounds, the strong spot price of iron ore supports the market, and steel mills have entered the replenishment cycle [2]. Supply - The year - end phased volume - rush of mainstream mines' shipments has ended, and the weekly shipment volume has dropped significantly. Outer - mine shipments will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply - side support is getting stronger [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is continuously rising slightly. The profitability of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some overhauled blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. In general, domestic steel - mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday replenishment cycle is about to start, with replenishment demand expected to be continuously released [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel - mill end has increased month on month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale replenishment of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3].

Core Insights - The 2025 Overseas Investment Development Conference highlighted the complex investment landscape for 2026, driven by converging monetary and fiscal policies, technological advancements, and geopolitical changes [1][2] Group 1: Macro Economic Drivers - The driving forces of global asset pricing are shifting from a singular focus on monetary policy to a new phase where both monetary and fiscal policies play significant roles, influenced by rapid technological advancements [2] - Key factors affecting the market in 2026 include the divergence in monetary policies among major economies, particularly the expected interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Long-term trends such as global order adjustments, the AI technology revolution, and a weak dollar cycle will continue to shape the macroeconomic landscape for asset allocation [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment opportunities identified include: 1. Fixed income investments driven by expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially lowering rates by 50 to 100 basis points [3] 2. Emerging markets as a source of excess returns, benefiting from global monetary easing and internal demand recovery due to supply chain shifts [3] 3. Certainty in growth within the technology sector, particularly as AI applications begin to materialize in 2026 [3] - The Chinese manufacturing sector is poised for growth, presenting both risks and opportunities as companies expand internationally [3] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Two major risk factors highlighted include: 1. Policy expectation risk, where deviations from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts could lead to asset price corrections [4] 2. Geopolitical risks that could disrupt global energy and trade chains, impacting corporate profitability [4] - Market pricing reflects a consensus that requires respect, with a focus on the sustainability of AI valuations and the gradual improvement in real estate and consumer sectors [4] Group 4: AI Investment Strategies - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI applications, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies [5] - Key investment areas in the AI sector include energy, computing power (chips and data centers), large models, and application/data layers, with specific companies like Nvidia and Google highlighted for their leadership [5] - The concept of a "year of application" emphasizes the shift from AI model training to real-world applications, suggesting a potential structural revaluation in the market [5]

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事米兰：财政政策将支持今年的经济增长。 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.492 | 105.760 | 105.745 | 107.855 | 107.845 | 111.32 | 111.49 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.486 | 102.526 | 105.815 | 105.820 | 107.860 | 107.875 | 111.41 | 111.63 | | | 涨跌 | -0.032 | -0.034 | -0.055 | -0.075 | -0.005 | -0.030 | -0.090 | -0.140 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

新华财经北京1月6日电 2026年首批政府债券于近日启动发行，受供给担忧冲击，债市收益率连续两个 交易日大幅上行。截至6日早盘，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率上涨2.4BP，报1.8855%，接近2025年 3月中旬高点。30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率上涨1.7BP，再度突破2.30%。10年期国开活跃券 250215收益率也创下2025年9月以来新高，盘中高点报1.9775%，日内涨幅达到2.75BP。 前一交易日，上述债券品种收益率涨幅均超过2BP。 对于年初的政府债券发行高峰可能对债市造成的冲击，国盛证券首席固收分析师杨业伟表示："需要看 到，这并非趋势，而是节奏性的影响。"据他分析，2026年财政或将保持适度扩张，政府债券同比多增 或明显低于2025年。这意味着全年来看，融资相较于2025年增量或有限。那么1月份集中投放，则意味 着后续继续投放空间下降。"因此，这种影响更多是节奏性的，不会带来趋势性影响。随着 1 月末信贷 和政府债券冲量高峰期过去，对债市的影响也将逐步渐退。" 不仅如此，杨业伟还表示，进入新的一年后，一方面，根据巴塞尔框架SPR31最终修订文件，银行账簿 利率冲击情形中 ...

企业预警通数据显示，截至目前，已有北京、河北、吉林等27地披露了2026年一季度的地方债券发行计 划，合计规模达20201.01亿元。 2025年，我国安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元。朱华雷分析，市场预测2026年新增专项债券额度或较 2025年增加5000亿元至6000亿元，达到4.9万亿元至5.0万亿元左右。增加额度主要是考虑满足"十五 五"开局之年基建投资稳增长、民生保障等多领域的资金需求。同时，今年的发行节奏或继续呈现出"两 头快、中间稳"的特点。 宋向清认为，2026年新增专项债券额度或达到4.8万亿元至5.0万亿元，发行节奏或前倾。整体看，2026 年新增专项债券发行将呈现规模扩大、结构优化、管理精细、效率提升的特点，在稳增长、补短板、惠 民生、防风险中发挥核心作用，为构建新发展格局提供强大支撑。 （文章来源：证券日报） 2026年地方债券发行正式启幕。1月5日，山东省发行723.81亿元地方政府债券，成为今年首个发行地方 债券的省份。 山东此次发行的723.81亿元地方债券中，有467.72亿元为新增专项债券，募集资金拟用于产业园区基础 设施、棚户区改造、民用机场、铁路、收费公路等项目；有25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of new special bonds and refinancing bonds marks a proactive fiscal policy, providing strong support for economic growth in 2026 while addressing local government hidden debt issues [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Shandong Province issued 723.81 billion yuan in local government bonds, including 467.72 billion yuan in new special bonds for infrastructure projects and 256.09 billion yuan in refinancing bonds to replace existing hidden debts [1]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds signifies the commencement of this year's refinancing bond issuance [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Projections - The simultaneous issuance of new special and refinancing bonds is a key measure to balance short-term economic growth with long-term risk prevention, promoting high-quality local economic development [2]. - As of now, 27 regions, including Beijing, Hebei, and Jilin, have disclosed plans for local bond issuance in the first quarter of 2026, totaling 20,201.01 billion yuan [2]. - The market predicts that the quota for new special bonds in 2026 may increase by 500 billion to 600 billion yuan compared to 2025, reaching approximately 4.9 trillion to 5.0 trillion yuan [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expected quota for new special bonds in 2026 is projected to be between 4.8 trillion and 5.0 trillion yuan, with an anticipated acceleration in the issuance pace [3]. - The overall issuance of new special bonds in 2026 is expected to feature expanded scale, optimized structure, refined management, and improved efficiency, playing a core role in stabilizing growth, addressing shortcomings, benefiting people's livelihoods, and preventing risks [3].