欧洲央行行长拉加德：宽松的财政政策强烈地推动通胀。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Experts generally expect a rapid issuance of special bonds in the future, with some provinces proposing to complete their annual issuance tasks by the end of June this year [1][7]. Summary by Sections Local Government Debt Issuance Trends - In the first five months of this year, local government bond issuance totaled approximately 43,148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 53%. However, the issuance in May was about 7,794 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 14% [1][2]. - The decline in May's issuance is attributed to a high base from the previous year, as the issuance volume was significantly higher in May 2022 compared to the first quarter of that year [2]. Debt Utilization and Characteristics - Of the 43,148 billion yuan issued in the first five months, approximately 20,000 billion yuan were new bonds, a year-on-year increase of about 37%, while refinancing bonds accounted for about 23,000 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 70% [3]. - The rapid issuance of refinancing bonds is aimed at replacing hidden debts, with about 16,300 billion yuan issued for this purpose, significantly higher than the previous year [3][4]. Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment - In the first five months, approximately 16,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a year-on-year increase of about 41%. The majority of these funds are directed towards infrastructure projects, including municipal and industrial park infrastructure [5]. - The reissuance of land reserve special bonds is expected to stabilize the real estate market and promote healthy development, with about 1,084 billion yuan issued in the first five months [5][6]. Future Issuance Expectations - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the coming months, with a total of 44,000 billion yuan planned for the year, of which about 16,000 billion yuan has already been issued [7][9]. - Experts predict that the issuance pace may continue to increase, especially as the second quarter progresses and the issuance of long-term special bonds begins [7][9]. Efficiency of Fund Utilization - There are concerns regarding the efficiency of special bond fund utilization, with suggestions for improving project management and selection processes to ensure higher economic returns [8]. - The need for enhanced project planning and management is emphasized to optimize the use of funds and ensure timely repayment of the bonds [8].

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 作者：罗志恒 晁云霞 自2008年以来，本轮积极财政政策实行了长达17年之久，积极财政政策的内涵和特点也逐渐发生了 变化，及时总结积极财政政策的效果、分析当前财政政策存在的不足，并指出未来财政政策可能的转 型方向具有重要意义。我国积极的财政政策有力地促进了稳增长、惠民生和防风险，发挥了财政作为 国家治理的基础和重要支柱的作用。但积极财政政策仍存在一些不足，亟待转型优化以释放更大的政 策效力。 01 积极财政政策的实施效果 （一）有力地应对了外生冲击、促进了经济稳定 本轮积极财政政策实施以来，成功应对了2008年全球金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等外生冲击，确保 我国经济总体平稳运行。 2008—2010年，以扩大政府投资、实施结构性减税为主的积极财政政策 在供需两端发力，使我国经济保持在9.9%的平均增速，而同期的世界经济平均增速仅为1.7%。 2020年以来，我国在全球经济变局、国内经济新旧动能转换、疫情冲击等多重考验下，以大规模减 税降费和支出结构优化为主的积极财政政策持续发力， ...

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 作者：罗志恒 晁云霞 自2008年以来，本轮积极财政政策实行了长达17年之久，积极财政政策的内涵和特点也逐渐发生了 变化，及时总结积极财政政策的效果、分析当前财政政策存在的不足，并指出未来财政政策可能的转 型方向具有重要意义。我国积极的财政政策有力地促进了稳增长、惠民生和防风险，发挥了财政作为 国家治理的基础和重要支柱的作用。但积极财政政策仍存在一些不足，亟待转型优化以释放更大的政 策效力。 01 积极财政政策的实施效果 （一）有力地应对了外生冲击、促进了经济稳定 本轮积极财政政策实施以来，成功应对了2008年全球金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等外生冲击，确保 我国经济总体平稳运行。 2008—2010年，以扩大政府投资、实施结构性减税为主的积极财政政策 在供需两端发力，使我国经济保持在9.9%的平均增速，而同期的世界经济平均增速仅为1.7%。 2020年以来，我国在全球经济变局、国内经济新旧动能转换、疫情冲击等多重考验下，以大规模减 税降费和支出结构优化为主的积极财政政策持续发力， ...

-------------------- 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com -------------------- 焦煤——震荡偏弱 现货偏弱，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 918 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 768 元/吨(+49)。 基差 145 元/吨(-74)，9-1 月差-18 元/吨（-1.5）。 矿山开工继续回落，焦企开工持平。523 家矿山开工率报 85.49%（-0.81），110 家 洗煤厂开工率报 61.55%(-0.81)。230 家独立焦企生产率报 75.08%(-0.1)。 上游累库，下游去库。523 家矿山精煤库存报 473.03 万吨(+25.5)，洗煤厂精煤库 存 222.07 万吨(+7.33)。247 家钢厂库存 786.79 万吨（-11.96)，230 家焦企库存 716.66(-21.3)。港口库存 3 ...

2025.06. 04 来源：新华社 特朗普政府扣留资金被认定违法 本文字数：1773，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ：白宫与非党派的财政监管机构爆发争论，揭示特朗普政府的财政困局。 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 一场围绕财政政策的激烈交锋正在美国上演。 当地时间6月3日，白宫预算管理办公室（OMB）在一份内部备忘录中明确指示美国交通部"完全不 必理会"政府问责办公室（GAO）的监管意见，将特朗普政府与独立监管机构的矛盾进一步公开化。 这场冲突的导火索是GAO在5月裁定特朗普政府"非法推迟"电动车基础设施资金的拨付。目前， GAO已对特朗普政府展开近40项调查，重点集中在财政支出削减措施上。 GAO是美国国会的非党 派机构，主要负责审计、评估和调查联邦政府的支出和运营。 同日，白宫与负责为立法提供预算和经济分析的国会预算办公室（CBO）也爆发激烈争论。CBO在 一项分析中预估， 特朗普政府提出的"美丽大法案"（Big Beautiful Bill）可能导致联邦赤字增加数 万亿美元。 当地时间4日，OMB主任沃特（Russell Vought）将出席众议院拨款委员会听证会，将就政府控制 财政支出的一系列举措接受质询。 ...

Group 1 - The White House and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) are in a dispute over the Trump administration's fiscal policies, particularly regarding the delay of electric vehicle infrastructure funding [1][3] - The GAO ruled that the Trump administration's withholding of funds for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (NEVI) was illegal, violating the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 [3] - The White House has criticized the GAO's motives, claiming it has become a partisan tool and questioning its legal standing [3][4] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill" could lead to a federal deficit increase of trillions of dollars, contrasting sharply with the White House's claims [1][5] - The CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and increase to $2.7 trillion by 2035, with adjusted deficits projected to be 6.1% of GDP by 2035 [5] - The White House has accused the CBO of using flawed predictive models and being biased towards the Democratic Party, citing a lack of Republican donations among its staff [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand in the face of economic uncertainties and insufficient internal demand, with a target growth rate of 5% facing challenges [1][5][7] - The article discusses the effectiveness of fiscal policy over monetary policy in addressing demand shortages, particularly in the current economic context where low inflation and high real interest rates prevail [3][4][6] - It highlights the importance of balancing fiscal spending between investment and consumption, suggesting that while investment is crucial, immediate measures should also focus on stimulating consumption to drive economic growth [6][7] Group 2 - Fiscal measures can be categorized into income policies and expenditure policies, with expenditure policies having a broader operational space to stimulate investment and consumption [4][5] - The article suggests that expanding fiscal deficits to increase spending can send a clear signal to the market, but cautions against excessive deficits that could have negative economic impacts [5][6] - It proposes that short-term fiscal spending should prioritize consumption, utilizing methods such as consumption vouchers and increased social security funding to quickly boost consumer confidence [6][7]

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏弱 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 蒙古政局扰动，煤焦夜盘反弹 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 5 月中国制造业 PMI 指数为 49.5，较上月上升 0.5 个百分点。 焦煤： 现货偏弱，期货下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 918 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 719 元/吨(-7)。基 差 219 元/吨(+7，9-1 月差-16.5 元/吨（+5）。 矿山开工继续回落，焦企开工持平。523 家矿山开工率报 85.49%（-0.81），110 家 洗煤厂开工率报 61. ...

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/6/3 • 周度总结及后市展望： 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 国内消息：国家统计局公布数据显示，5月我国制造业PMI为49.5%，环比升0.5个百分点。非制 造业PMI为50.3%，环比降0.1个百分点。 3 • 海外消息：摩根大通首席执行官杰米•戴蒙指出了滞胀的风险。在经济学家看来，滞胀可能比经 济衰退更严重。这是因为，由于担心通胀加剧，央行无法通过降低利率来刺激经济增长。 • 上周沪深300指数弱势震荡，成交低位。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出1002亿元，融 资资金下降1亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面， 关注关税政策、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线上方，短期成交低迷，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数震荡，投资者逢低做多。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3846.2 3822.4 -0.62% 297773 122449 2.43 IH2506 2693 2667 ...