1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The monetary policy has added the statement of "continuous efforts and timely intensification", emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs. The economic data in July and August were lower than expected. From January to August 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to an increase of 0.9% year - on - year, with the single - month profit growth rate in August soaring to 20.4%. The consumer side showed differentiation this week, indicating cautious consumer sentiment. Against the backdrop of economic pressure, there are still expectations of monetary policy easing. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward, and the 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [2][10][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting**: The third - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee in 2025 added "continuous efforts and timely intensification" to the overall description of monetary policy. It removed "more risk hidden dangers" in the domestic economic description and "continuous" from the description of prices. The new statement "implement and refine the moderately loose monetary policy" was added, and "deepening the structural reform of the financial supply - side" was removed [12]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 1.7% to an increase of 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded significantly to 20.4%, driven by policy effects, low - base support, and industry structure optimization. However, nearly half of the industries still had negative year - on - year profit growth [18][19]. - **US Tariff and PCE Data**: The US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products starting from October 1. The US PCE price index in August increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in October rose above 80% [4][22]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of September 21, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 9.4% and 5.8% year - on - year respectively. As of September 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 10.2% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [24][28]. - **Transportation**: As of September 21, the weekly container throughput at ports increased by 12.9% year - on - year, postal express pick - up volume increased by 19.4% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 20.7% year - on - year. As of September 27, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [34][39][41]. - **Industrial Operating Rates**: As of September 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points year - on - year. As of September 25, the average asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 7.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year [44][46]. - **Real Estate**: As of September 27, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 3.6% year - on - year. As of September 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities increased by 78.4% year - on - year [51][53]. - **Prices**: As of September 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 25.0% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.2% year - on - year and increased by 2.6% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 7.5% year - on - year and 1.9% compared with 4 weeks ago, while the average spot price of iron ore increased by 8.4% year - on - year and 2.4% compared with 4 weeks ago [54][60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Short - term Interest Rates**: On September 28, the overnight Shibor was 1.31%, down 9.90BP from September 23. On September 26, R001, DR001, and IBO001 decreased, while R007, DR007, and IBO007 increased compared with September 22 [63]. - **Bond Yields**: On September 26, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.39%/1.62%/1.88%/2.22% respectively, with changes of flat/+0.5BP/+0.3BP/+1.8BP compared with September 19. The yields of China Development Bank bonds and local government bonds also showed different changes [68][70]. - **Foreign Exchange**: On September 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.12/7.13, up 24/220 pips compared with September 19 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds estimated on September 26 was about 4.5 years, down about 0.04 years from last week. The median and average durations of medium - and long - term credit bond funds estimated on September 26 were about 2.9 years, down about 0.2 years from last week [76][79]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although the bond market may be disturbed by the stock market's risk appetite in the short term, its allocation value is prominent supported by the fundamentals. The 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [80][83].

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated interest rate cuts in China have not materialized, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining stable for four consecutive months, while the Federal Reserve has initiated a new easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut [1][2][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy Context - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, reflecting a cautious approach amid various economic pressures [1][5] - The Fed's recent rate cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25% marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of further cuts in the fourth quarter [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Domestic economic conditions, including weak inflation and pressures in the real estate market, have led to expectations for a follow-up rate cut in China to stabilize the RMB and stimulate economic recovery [2][5] - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on net interest margins, which have dropped to approximately 1.45%, limiting the scope for further rate reductions [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market Challenges - The stability of the real estate market is under threat, with 69 out of 70 major cities reporting a decline in second-hand housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities [6][9] - The core issues in the real estate market extend beyond financing costs, highlighting structural problems in supply and demand [7][9] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To address the real estate market's challenges, a combination of fiscal policy and structural adjustments is recommended, including optimizing market supply and enhancing demand through employment and income stability [9][11] - The government is encouraged to pause new land auctions and repurchase undeveloped land to alleviate supply pressures, aligning with recent policy directions [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for new monetary policy actions, including further rate cuts, is anticipated as the Fed's easing opens up more operational space for the PBOC [9][11] - The overall expectation is that with the gradual release of policy effects and ongoing economic recovery, the real estate market may stabilize over time [11]

在9月政策会议上，美联储正式重启降息周期，这一决策被TSLombard全球宏观主管达里奥・珀金斯视 为"错误的开端"。在周四发布的客户报告中，珀金斯明确指出："美联储决策层对劳动力市场潜在放缓的担 忧，是其在关税可能推升通胀至目标上方的背景下，仍坚持重启降息的核心原因，但这种担忧被显著夸大 了。" 对于2025年通胀降温的现象，珀金斯表示这并非经济内生的"通胀缓解"，而是源于经济体系中的"显著负面 供给冲击"。 当前美国经济的"韧性叙事"已成为多数预测机构的共识，但宏观研究公司TSLombard却抛出了截然不同的 判断，美国经济或正在走向类似上世纪70年代滞胀危机前的通胀反弹通道。 滞胀作为经济领域的"棘手难题"，核心矛盾在于经济增长陷入停滞的同时，通胀率却持续高企。高通胀会 直接限制美联储的政策空间，在典型衰退中，央行可通过降息释放流动性、刺激经济，但滞胀环境下，降 息可能进一步推升通胀，陷入"政策两难"。 目前主流预测机构普遍将滞胀视为"边缘风险"，支撑这一判断的核心依据是近期通胀数据趋于温和，且经 济增长仍保持强劲势头，两者形成的"良性组合"削弱了滞胀担忧。 他强调，这种需求疲软是"暂时性的"，2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy meeting indicates a shift towards maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, moving away from aggressive incremental policy implementations [1][6]. Economic Outlook - The meeting acknowledged a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth, increased trade barriers, and uncertain inflation trends, while noting that China's economy is progressing steadily despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][4]. Price Trends - The description of prices changed from "continuously low" to "low," reflecting recent positive signals in price data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after eight months of decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month but showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [4][6]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting emphasized the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies and enhancing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to support economic stability and reasonable price levels [5][13]. Structural Policy Tools - There is a new focus on using structural monetary policy tools to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a commitment to targeted financial support [10]. Long-term Interest Rates - The meeting continued to highlight the importance of monitoring long-term interest rates, with a consistent approach over the past seven quarters, reflecting ongoing concerns about the bond market dynamics [10][11]. Financial Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the importance of maintaining stability in the foreign exchange, capital, and real estate markets, with specific measures to enhance market resilience and prevent excessive fluctuations [13].

近日，俄罗斯银行（央行）董事会决定将关键利率下调100个基点，降至年化17%。当前俄罗斯经济继 续回归平衡增长轨道，消费者价格指数（CPI）增速有所放缓。俄罗斯银行表示，将继续维持货币条件 的必要紧缩程度。此次降息1个百分点，既是对市场降息呼声的回应，也体现出央行在货币政策方面的 保守与审慎态度。 俄罗斯银行行长纳比乌琳娜在新闻发布会上指出，自年初以来，通货膨胀已显著下降，外部需求和经济 活动也有所放缓。这为利率下调设定了一个总体方向。数据显示，俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率已连续第5个 月下降，8月CPI降至2024年4月以来的最低水平。但总体而言，价格增长仍远高于央行设定的4%目标。 俄罗斯央行实行的严格货币政策产生了较为显著的抗通胀效果。纳比乌琳娜表示，基础通胀指标近几个 月一直保持在4%至6%的区间内。央行实施的货币政策已促使基础通胀自年初以来显著下降，但仍需时 间以巩固通胀下降趋势。 俄罗斯总统普京在近日的经济问题会议上表示，通胀回落趋势已相当明显。7月份消费者价格指数同比 上升8.8%，8月份涨幅为8.1%。尽管当前通胀下降的幅度低于政府和俄罗斯央行的预测，但降低通胀的 努力正在取得成效。普京指出，维持适度 ...

据韩联社9月14日报道，现代经济研究院14日发表报告书，预测今年韩国经济增长率为1.0%，比四 月预测值提升0.3个百分点，预计明年的经济增长率为1.9%。研究院认为，今年下半年韩政府积极的财 政政策、经济心理恢复以及出口预期转好等将成为经济转换的动力。从趋势来看，预计韩国经济明年上 半年同比增长2.3%，下半年同比增长1.5%，将出现上高下低的趋势。 研究院预测，以明年政府预算案为基准，积极扩张的财政将对景气恢复产生积极影响。但有人担心 明年的货币政策可能会使财政政策效果减半。韩国央行比起核心经济变数"增长和物价"更重视次要变 数"房地产市场和家庭负债"，因此有可能维持消极应对经济的政策基调。 研究院强调，2026年很可能成为韩国经济重新回归潜在增长水平的一年。为了抓住这次艰难创造的 经济恢复机会，需要运用与财政政策扩张基调相吻合的货币政策，还要扩大企业投资。 （原标题：现代经济研究院将今年韩国经济增长率预测值提高至1.0%） ...

Economic Situation - The local economy is experiencing a significant downturn, with businesses like tea shops seeing a drastic drop in sales and factories operating at reduced capacity [1] - There is a noticeable lack of consumer demand, leading to a halt in production and a rise in unemployment [4][6] Policy Responses - The central bank and finance ministry have opted for Keynesian policies to stimulate demand, emphasizing the need for government intervention to avoid prolonged high unemployment [6] - The central bank has implemented a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which has led to a positive market response, encouraging investments and consumer spending [11] Banking Sector Challenges - There is a concerning trend of increased bank deposits as residents choose to save rather than spend, which could lead to a vicious cycle of reduced consumption and further economic decline [7] - The banking sector is facing operational difficulties due to low loan demand, impacting their ability to generate profits [7] Monetary Tools - The central bank is utilizing various monetary tools, including interest rate cuts and open market operations, to inject liquidity into the economy and stabilize banking operations [12][14] - The reserve requirement ratio is highlighted as a critical tool for managing the money supply, with potential adjustments having significant implications for market liquidity [14] Long-term Strategies - The central bank is cautious about using unconventional tools like quantitative easing, recognizing the potential long-term risks associated with excessive liquidity [17] - It is acknowledged that while monetary policy can address immediate liquidity issues, fiscal policy is essential for directly boosting consumer demand and economic activity [20]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, global economic growth shows signs of recovery, with total demand slightly rebounding and overall supply remaining stable. Household consumption accounts for 55.4% of global GDP, with private investment at 28.1% and government spending at 16.5% [1][10][12] - Major economies exhibit divergent performances: the US economy is recovering, Europe shows weak recovery, Japan faces growth pressures, India exceeds expectations, and Russia encounters challenges [1][10][12] Demand and Supply Analysis - On the demand side, uncertainties are increasing, particularly in the US, where consumer spending may weaken. The EU and Japan also show signs of consumer fatigue. However, US investment may receive a boost, while other economies' potential remains questionable [2][6][18] - On the supply side, manufacturing is recovering, and service sector expansion continues, although US employment risks need to be monitored. Global actual GDP growth is projected at approximately 2.4% for Q4 2025, with an annual growth rate of about 2.1% [2][6][18] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is stabilizing overall, with a projected global CPI growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 and an annual rate of approximately 3.5%. The US faces a risk of inflation rebound, while other major economies experience a downward trend in prices [2][20][21] Trade and Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are experiencing a reduction in short-term impacts on global trade activities. The US has adjusted tariffs on various imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall tariff rate. However, uncertainties remain regarding the legality of these policies and potential protectionist measures from other countries [23][25][26] - Global trade growth is expected to be around 0.7% in 2025, influenced by ongoing tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors [23][25][26] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal policy stance. The US faces significant fiscal pressure, with a projected budget deficit of $2.911 trillion for the month of August, exceeding market expectations. The EU and Japan are also increasing their fiscal spending, focusing on defense and economic competitiveness [31][32][35][36]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on black building materials dated September 25, 2025, covering various commodities such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.285%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.882224 million lots, an increase of 812 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.508%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,559 tons, a decrease of 292 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.367761 million lots, an increase of 668 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The open interest changed by -7,511 lots to 539,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 856,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.72% [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On September 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued a small rebound, closing up 0.58% at 5,916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the futures [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) also continued to rebound, closing up 0.77% at 5,742 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 58 yuan/ton over the futures [9] Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.06% (+95). The weighted contract open interest changed by -1,424 lots to 508,298 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 180 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -120 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,380 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.23% (+1,120). The weighted contract open interest changed by -2,089 lots to 250,365 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1,120 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Glass - On Wednesday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4.56% (+54). The price of large plates in North China was 1,160 yuan, up 10 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,150 yuan, up 10. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million boxes, a decrease of 675,000 boxes (-1.10%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions increased by 94,955 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 43,450 lots [18] Soda Ash - On Wednesday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,307 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+34). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,217 yuan, up 34. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 28,400 tons, and 749,500 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 13,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions decreased by 2,046 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 23,979 lots [20] Group 3: Strategy Views Steel - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the central bank will maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools. In terms of exports, the volume increased slightly last week but remained weak. Fundamentally, rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure eased marginally; hot-rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and the peak-season demand is not strong. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, rebar demand remains weak, and hot-rolled coil, although having some resilience, is still weak overall. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face downward risk. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [3] Iron Ore - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments of the three major mainstream mines all decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non-mainstream countries also decreased month-on-month. The nearby arrivals increased month-on-month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons, with both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability rate of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased significantly. Some inventory may continue to be transferred to the plant before the National Day. In terms of terminal data, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase, and the inventory slope slowed down. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the pressure on the raw material end from downstream still needs to be observed. Fundamentally, short-term pig iron production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, iron ore prices still have support. Macroscopically, after the China-US presidential call, the market sentiment is relatively positive; the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" continues to increase the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal, reducing the impact of speculative sentiment on prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory depletion speed [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there may be two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the rate cut was in line with expectations, Powell's statement was hawkish, leading to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index also returned to a volatile state. However, the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policy implementation, enhancing the market's expectation of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" sentiment has resurfaced recently, driving the raw material end such as coking coal and ferroalloys to perform relatively actively. However, with the approaching of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory before the National Day holiday, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where the demand has not shown peak-season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high-intensity production driven by profits, and pig iron production continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a continuous inverse seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality [10] - In the short term, affected by the real demand, the black sector may face a downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, the statement of the high-level that "China still has sufficient fiscal policy space," and the opening of domestic policy space after the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, the black sector may gradually become more cost-effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid-October. Compared with the short-term correction risk, looking for long opportunities after the price pullback may be a better choice [11] - In the case of manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, it is observed that the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the price of manganese ore has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens according to the above logic, attention should be paid to whether there are any sudden disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may become the driving force for manganese silicon to launch its own market. Otherwise, it is expected that manganese silicon will be difficult to have an independent strong market in the absence of major contradictions and will follow the black sector market [11] - For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions and driving forces in its supply and demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black sector market, with relatively low operation cost-effectiveness [11] Industrial Silicon - The sentiment in the commodity market improved yesterday, and the industrial silicon futures rebounded. From the perspective of the futures price trend, the price has experienced short-term sharp fluctuations and is relatively unstable, so risk control should be noted. Looking back at the fundamentals, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. After several weeks of continuous growth, the production has slowed down for the first time, but the weekly production is still at a relatively high level close to the same period last year. In the downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high since the industry's self-discipline production control. Whether the high-operating-rate enterprises will start to reduce production in the future is uncertain, but in the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level compared to the same period. The explicit inventory of industrial silicon is generally at a high level, and the marginal depletion amplitude is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has been running at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the price of industrial silicon; at the same time, the "anti-involution" policy leaves room for price improvement in the future. However, for the price to be strongly supported, fundamental improvement is still required. In the short term, the market is affected by capital sentiment, with rapid entry and exit, and the futures price returns to a volatile state. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continues to be dominated by policy narratives, and the short-term market focus remains on the capacity integration policy and the downstream price pass-through progress. Fundamentally, some of the previous inventory has been transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the de-stocking space for the entire industry is limited, which depends on the maintenance situation of the current high-operating-rate enterprises. In terms of price, the previous spot price increase was relatively smooth in the middle and front of the downstream, but there is still a stalemate in the component link, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expected verification cannot be asserted. However, before the final implementation and when there are obstacles in the component link price pass-through, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress for a long time. In the short term, the polysilicon price will continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if the expectations are not fulfilled as scheduled. The intraday price of polysilicon fluctuates greatly and changes rapidly, so attention should be paid to position and risk control, and attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark for the main contract. At the same time, the authenticity of sudden news should be carefully verified [16] Glass - In the afternoon, six departments issued a document to strictly prohibit the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. At the same time, some enterprises announced price increases for glass spot, boosting the futures price to a short-term high. However, the overall terminal demand is still weak, and downstream procurement is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of supply, the adjustment of production lines is limited, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintain stable prices for sales, and actual transactions are flexibly adjusted. The regional inventory performance shows obvious differentiation, with good de-stocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face certain inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy trends, and the short-term view is relatively bullish [19] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with local narrow fluctuations and limited overall price changes. In terms of production, the operation of the devices is generally stable, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted. Among them, the Shandong Haitian device has resumed production, and Tongbai Haijing also plans to gradually resume production in the near future, and the industry output is expected to increase slightly. The demand side shows a flat performance, and downstream enterprises still replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, and most transactions revolve around low-priced goods. Overall, it is expected that the short-term soda ash market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with limited price fluctuation range [21][23]