沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20470，基差-55，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

当地时间8月4日，受乐观市场情绪提振，欧美股市全线收涨，德国DAX指数、法国CAC40指数，道指、标普500指数均涨 超1%，纳指涨近2%。上周美国非农数据再添美国经济放缓迹象，市场押注美联储将实施降息救市，这引发了资金逢低买 入，推动美股大涨。其中，芯片股领涨，英伟达股价再创收盘历史新高。 与此同时，美欧贸易关系出现缓和信号，带动欧洲股市整体反弹。欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨1.42%报 23757.69点，法国CAC40指数涨1.14%报7632.01点，英国富时100指数涨0.66%报9128.3点。 具体来看，美股大型科技股多数上涨。个股方面，英伟达涨逾3%，脸书涨逾3%，谷歌涨逾3%，微软涨逾2%，苹果涨 0.48%，亚马逊跌逾1%。其中，英伟达收涨3.62%，报每股180美元，刷新了上周三的收盘纪录。 日韩股市同样在8月5日双双高开。日经225指数高开0.57%，报40521.0点。韩国综指高开1.25%，报3187.15点。截至发稿 时，日经225指数和韩国综合指数分别上涨0.41%、1.9%。 欧美股市集体收涨 英伟达再创收盘新高 当地时间周一，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

Core Viewpoint - Danske Bank analysts suggest that if the Bank of England lowers interest rates as expected, the British pound may react mildly due to market anticipation and the potential for a gradual easing policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of England is likely to lower interest rates on Thursday, with the market widely expecting this move [1] - Danske Bank anticipates that the Bank of England may maintain a gradual easing policy guidance [1] Currency Outlook - The British pound is expected to weaken further, as the Bank of England's rate cuts in 2026 may exceed market expectations [1] - The euro is projected to rise against the pound, with an expected exchange rate of 0.89 within the next 6 to 12 months [1] Economic Conditions - Rising uncertainty and signs of slowing economic growth in the UK are likely to put additional pressure on the pound [1] - The positive correlation between the pound and the US dollar may also contribute to the pound's challenges [1]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管 6 月份消费者价格通胀率已升至接近央行 2% 目标的两倍，但市场普遍预计英国央行将 于周四将基准利率从 4.25% 下调至 4%，并在年底前再次下调利率。 但政策制定者对于潜在价格压力缓解的程度，以及如果不进一步降息，劳动力市场放缓和经济增长乏力是否会导 致通胀在中期内低于目标水平，存在分歧。 以下图表展示了政策制定者在周四决议前可能讨论的部分议题。 全球背景与展望 2022年俄乌冲突后，英国通胀飙升幅度超过欧元区和美国，峰值达11.1%，部分源于其对天然气供暖发电的高度 依赖。2023年通胀大幅回落，2024年9月触底1.7%，但此后反弹力度强于美欧。 5月英国央行预测通胀最早2027年初才能回归目标。6月通胀率升至3.6%(2024年1月以来最高)，部分经济学家预计 将很快突破4%。相比之下，欧洲央行预计欧元区通胀将维持在略低于2%的水平。 通胀预期升温 多数英国央行官员将企业和家庭通胀预期调查视为未来物价走势、薪资要求乃至央行公信力的重要指标。 这些指标过去一年持续攀升：花旗/YouGov长期预期指数接近2022年底(当时整体通胀达两位数)以来最高，央行自 身调查也创2019年 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices remain stable around $3,360 per ounce after a significant increase of 2.2% in the previous trading session, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and trade tariff measures [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 new jobs were added in July, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, leading to market declines [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen over 25%, with expectations of further increases due to ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains stable, while silver, palladium, and platinum prices have seen declines [2]

8月1日，美国非农就业数据大由利多，远低市场预期，失业率达到4.2%，消息一出黄金原地起飞大夜 60多美金，转眼金价重回3360美元上方。 不仅非农数据给力，美联储利率决议中近30年以来首次出现"反水"，两名官员鲍曼和沃乐支持降息，从 鲍威尔"嘴硬派"阵营倒戈，关于降息的预 上周，黄金跌的人心惶惶，尤其金价刺穿3300美元跌至3268美元，从4月份到现在以3300美元为中轴 线，来回反复的行情搞得多空也没脾气。 桂林山水甲天下，久闻其名，今天抽个时间一睹为快。 ...

12月美国联邦基金利率期货上涨6个基点，暗示年底前降息65个基点。 ...

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...