Market Performance - US stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones dropping by 200 points, while the Nasdaq opened high but later fell back, and the S&P 500 briefly turned negative [2] - The technology sector experienced a significant surge, with Amazon's stock jumping nearly 5% after signing a $38 billion deal with OpenAI to supply NVIDIA AI chips over the next seven years [3] AI Sector Impact - The deal with OpenAI is seen as a validation of Amazon's capabilities in building and operating large-scale data center networks, contributing to the ongoing AI-driven market rally [3] - NVIDIA's stock rose nearly 3% following the approval of a deal allowing Microsoft to sell chips to the UAE, indicating strong demand for AI-related technologies [5] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with the manufacturing index falling by 0.4 points to 48.7, indicating a contraction as readings below 50 signify [7] - The output index decreased by 2.8 points to 48.2, reflecting two months of contraction in the past three months, while the employment index has also contracted for nine months [7] Inflation and Federal Reserve Commentary - Inflation pressures are easing, with the raw materials price index dropping by 3.9 points to 58, the lowest since the beginning of the year [7] - Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, expressed concerns about inflation remaining above target for over four years, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [8][9] - Fed Governor Stephen Milan advocates for more significant rate cuts, arguing that current monetary policy is too restrictive and that the neutral rate is well below current levels [10]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts, arguing that current monetary policy is overly restrictive and that the neutral interest rate is much lower than the current policy rate [2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Miran emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's policy is too tight, suggesting that a series of 50 basis point cuts could reach the neutral rate without needing 75 basis points [2] - He has consistently opposed recent rate cuts, voting against the 25 basis point reductions in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [2] - Following a second consecutive month of a 25 basis point cut, the target range for the benchmark rate is now 3.75% to 4% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Miran points to recent pressures in the credit market as indicators of overly tight monetary policy, suggesting that these issues may reflect broader economic risks [3] - He argues that focusing too heavily on stock market performance and corporate credit strength can misrepresent the true stance of monetary policy [3] - The performance of interest-sensitive sectors, such as the housing market, and pressures in private credit markets indicate that current monetary policy may be contributing to economic downturn risks [3] Group 3: Independence Concerns - Miran's temporary appointment to the Federal Reserve, following his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, raises questions about his independence and potential influence from the Trump administration [4]

美联储理事米兰称，中性利率远低于当前政策水平。美联储可能通过一系列50个基点的降息达到中性利 率，但并不需要75个基点的降息。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡上涨，虽弱现实格局压制钢价 上涨驱动力，但受宏观利好消息影响，市场情绪有所提振，市场 活跃度小幅回升，原材支撑仍存。截至10月31日，全国主要城市 20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3261元/吨，周环比涨42元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，铁水产量小幅下降，但品 种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于外部降息周和中美关系缓和的 影响，期现货市场明显上涨，从而带动市场投机需求放大，各品 种市场成交有所上升。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳中上涨，废钢 价格小幅上涨，焦炭价格大幅上涨，生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 钢材期货周度报告 2025年11月03日 旺季进入尾声 盘面先扬后抑 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., on November 3, 2025. The trends include upward, downward, and fluctuating movements, and the intensity of the trends is also indicated [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 921.92 yuan, up 1.07% [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11,441 yuan, up 1.66% [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,010 yuan, down 1.08% [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,355 yuan [14]. - **Lead**: The continuous reduction of overseas inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,390 yuan, up 0.23% [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan, up 0.11% [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity will move upward. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,300 yuan [22]. - **Alumina**: It is anchored by supply reduction. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view. The price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,793 yuan [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It will run strongly. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,805 yuan [22]. - **Nickel**: The accumulation of inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while the uncertainty at the ore end provides support. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan [25]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The expectation of复产 restricts the upward space, and it will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan [28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The reduction of warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Si2601 contract closed at 9,100 yuan [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Driven by positive sentiment, the futures price has risen. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the PS2601 contract closed at 56,410 yuan [33]. - **Iron Ore**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 12601 contract closed at 800 yuan, down 0.31% [36]. - **Rebar**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the RB2601 contract closed at 3,106 yuan, down 0.48% [41][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the HC2601 contract closed at 3,308 yuan, down 0.72% [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5,500 yuan [46]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract closed at 5,772 yuan [46]. - **Coke**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the J2601 contract closed at 1,777 yuan, down 0.5% [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Driven by macro - economic factors and sector themes, it will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the JM2601 contract closed at 1,286 yuan, down 0.2% [51]. - **Log**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 743 yuan [53][54]. - **Rubber**: It will run in a fluctuating manner. The price and trend intensity are not specified in the provided text [57]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: It will fluctuate strongly, and the volatility will continue to increase [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to strengthen at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market reached a record high for the year [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will consolidate in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They will return to fundamentals and fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The driving force for the oil market is lacking, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The rebound of US soybeans supports the expansion of the soybean - palm oil spread [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans reached a new high, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow and fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Soybean**: It may fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly consolidate within a range [4]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the seed cotton price on the cotton futures has weakened [4]. - **Egg**: It will adjust in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Live Pig**: The price center may further decline [4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

四位鹰派不约而同地把通胀挂在嘴边：当前CPI仍高高在上，回归2%目标的速度"慢得让人抓狂"。相比 之下，劳动力市场虽有大厂裁员新闻，但尚未形成系统性风险。洛根和哈玛克都表示会密切关注裁员趋 势，但"预防性降息"为时尚早。博斯蒂克更寄望于地区联储通过企业调研"补数据空缺"，用第一手信息 弥合内部分歧。 鲍威尔放话后，美联储利率期货迅速调整：12月降息概率从近100%跌至约66%，不降息概率飙升至 33%。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于911.38元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报918.66 元/克，涨幅0.04%，最高触及927.28元/克，最低下探911.18元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于911.38元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报918.66元/ 克，涨幅0.04%，最高触及927.28元/克，最低下探911.18元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 随着鲍威尔任期进入倒计时，美联储内部鹰鸽分歧愈发公开化。12月9-10日会议，降息门槛已被鹰派集 体抬高；若无通胀或就业数据"硬着陆"，鲍威尔想再推25基点，恐 ...

亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克则指出，政策仍具限制性，但"每一次降息都会削弱继续宽松的理由"。分析 人士认为，接下来密集登场的多位地区联储主席讲话，将成为12月会议前的关键信号窗口。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 【要闻速递】 美联储于10月货币政策会议后宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%–4%区间，并计划于12月1日结束资 产负债表缩减计划。 然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在会后的记者会上语气谨慎，明确表示"12月进一步降 息远非板上钉钉"，并强调就业与通胀前景较9月会议"变化不大"。他还警告称，央行必须管理"更持久 的通胀风险"。 这一鹰派转折迅速压制市场情绪。会前市场押注12月降息概率高达90%，但在讲话后骤降至63%。 据《华尔街日报》报道，至少四位官员在会后表达了担忧，认为连续降息可能削弱抑制通胀的力度。其 中，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德反对本次降息；克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克与达拉斯联储主席洛根也暗示若 拥有投票权将持相同立场。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3997.52美元/盎司，跌幅0.09%，最高上探至4 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly housing, may have entered a recession due to persistently high interest rates, urging the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts [1][2] - Basset highlighted that high mortgage rates are hindering the real estate market, with the lowest-end consumers being the most affected due to high debt and low assets [1] - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing home sales contracts remained flat month-over-month in September [1] Group 2 - Basset described the overall economic environment as a "transition period" and criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's suggestion of a potential pause in rate cuts in December [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan expressed concerns that failure to quickly cut rates could lead to a recession, advocating for a more significant rate cut of 50 basis points instead of the recent 25 basis points [2] - Basset agreed with Milan's view, noting that the Trump administration's spending cuts have helped reduce the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP from 6.4% to 5.9%, which aids in lowering inflation [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates** Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell's hawkish comments leading to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in December. This reflects the Fed's cautious approach towards inflation and the labor market [1][2] 2. **Market Reactions to Fed Policies** Following the Fed's hawkish signals, the U.S. dollar index rose to 99.7, marking its highest level since August 1. Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields increased significantly, indicating that the market has incorporated the Fed's signals into trading strategies [2][3] 3. **U.S. Trade Deficit and Dollar Strength** The U.S. trade deficit has returned to normal levels, alleviating some of the downward pressure on the dollar experienced earlier in the year. If the trade deficit does not expand significantly in the future, the dollar is expected to receive support [3][4] 4. **Fed's Policy Adjustments** The Fed announced it would halt the monthly reduction of $5 billion in Treasury securities and continue to reinvest maturing principal. This shift aims to ease market concerns about tightening liquidity and to adjust the average duration of its asset portfolio [4][5] 5. **Potential for Quantitative Easing (QE)** The likelihood of the Fed restarting QE is low unless interest rates fall to zero. Current high-interest rates provide sufficient room for rate cuts, making a return to QE unlikely in the near term [6] 6. **Liquidity Intervention Indicators** The difference between Sofra and IORB rates can indicate whether the Fed might intervene in liquidity. A widening spread suggests tightening liquidity, which has been a factor in the Fed's decision to stop balance sheet reduction [7] 7. **Market Response to U.S.-China Agreement** Following the recent U.S.-China agreement, U.S. stock markets reacted mildly while Hong Kong stocks declined. This response is attributed to the agreement's content being largely anticipated and not addressing fundamental issues such as trade imbalances [8][9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The Fed's transition from MBS to T-Bills is seen as a return to traditional monetary policy operations, which may help stabilize market expectations and reduce government financing costs in a high-interest environment [5]