Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is not the most tense in Sino-U.S. relations, but it marks a turning point in economic and trade relations, with China shifting from patient restraint to clear countermeasures [3] Economic and Trade Relations - The U.S. has historically held a dominant position in global trade, but has recently deviated from the rules it once advocated, leading to unilateral trade measures [4] - The trade relationship has seen ongoing tensions, with both cooperation and friction in various sectors, influenced by each side's understanding of sensitive industries [5][7] Countermeasures - China has begun implementing strong countermeasures, including export controls on rare earth materials and high-performance lithium batteries, as well as special port fees on U.S. vessels [11][12] - The U.S. has responded with tariffs and restrictions, indicating a tit-for-tat escalation in trade tensions [15] Impact on Supply Chains - China's export controls on rare earths and lithium batteries could significantly impact U.S. supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and energy storage [13] - The U.S. is aware of the potential repercussions of its actions, as they could also harm its own industries [23] Future Outlook - Both countries are engaged in ongoing negotiations to manage their differences, with a focus on avoiding further escalation [16] - The relationship is characterized by a complex interdependence, making complete decoupling unlikely despite rising tensions [22][25] - China's long-term strategy emphasizes cooperation and mutual benefit, contrasting with the U.S. approach of prioritizing its own interests [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes that the U.S.-China trade issues should be resolved through negotiations based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit, rejecting the notion that trade wars serve either party's interests [1][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese side maintains a consistent and clear stance on U.S.-China economic and trade issues, asserting that trade wars are not beneficial for either side [1]. - Recent communications between Chinese and U.S. trade leaders, including a video call between China's Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, indicate a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue regarding bilateral trade relations [4]. - The U.S. has identified three key issues in its negotiations with China: rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans, which are central to the upcoming discussions [1].

外交部：中美应在平等、尊重、互惠基础上协商解决有关问题 10月20日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者问，中美即将重返谈判桌。据最新报道，美方将 稀土、芬太尼和大豆列为美国对中国提出的三大问题。外交部对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示，中方在处理中美经贸问题上的立场是一贯的、明确的，关税战、贸易战不符合任何一方的利 益。双方应在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上，协商解决有关问题。 此前，据新华社消息，北京时间10月18日上午，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方围绕落实今年以来两国元首历次通话重要 共识，就双边经贸关系中的重要问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的交流，同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋 商。 综合自：央视新闻、新华社 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 涨停潮！热门赛道大爆发！ 丨 ↑5.2%！重磅经济数据公布！ 丨 开盘大涨！中国资产爆发！ 丨 突 然，集体大涨！超10万人爆仓！ 丨 A股，业绩利好！最高增超800%！ 丨 重磅来袭！央行、统计 局，明日公 ...

Domestic Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced a new local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to last year[2] - The total available investment for the fourth quarter is nearly 1 trillion yuan, combining the new debt limit and previously announced fiscal tools[2] International Relations - A video call was held between Chinese and U.S. officials to discuss further economic negotiations, indicating ongoing communication despite trade tensions[3][10] - The Chinese government maintains a firm stance on trade disputes, emphasizing readiness for both negotiation and confrontation[3][12] Upcoming Events - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will take place from October 20-23, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations[4] - The National People's Congress Standing Committee will meet from October 24-28 to review financial reports and asset management for 2024[4] Risk Factors - There is a risk of delayed policy updates, which could impact market expectations and economic stability[5]

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-10-20 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 高位调整，量能缩减 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种走势以向下调整为主基调，其中中证 500 和中证 1000 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差走势 有所分化，全部主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约 期货-现货基差，IH 收于-4.77，IF 收于-29.03，IC 收于-152.87， IM 收于-164.68。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场整体呈现高位调整走势，之前强势的指数有较大 幅度调整。当前沪指月线运行至压力位置面临方向的选择，周线冲 高放量是调整的信号，如果不能维持强势市场，调整的概率在逐步 增大，需要高度重视。截至 10 月 17 日，板块已经出现了轮动，航 空、煤炭和贵金属等板块在本周表现强势的特征，周内有所拉升。 另外，市场在这个位置横向运动了 8 周，没有特殊事件的影响和资 金的强势拉升，这个位置短期不具备突破的能力，需要进一步观察 后期市场的表现。 综合分析： 宏观方面，9 月出口再次超出市场预期，PPI 延续上行，但是 政府债拖 ...

2025年10月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库偏慢，关注棕油下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：中美贸易摩擦缓和，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：外部市场因素加大期货波动 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：供应后置确认，中枢进一步下移 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 棕榈油：产地去库偏慢，关注棕油下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,308 | -0.04% | 9 ...

Group 1 - The deterioration of the China-US trade environment is a direct trigger for market adjustments this week, with Trump announcing a potential 100% tariff increase on China [1] - The US Department of Commerce released export control rules in late September, placing several Chinese companies on the entity list, prompting China to implement countermeasures, including stricter controls on rare earth exports [1] - Recent increases in Chinese assets were largely driven by overseas technology linkages, highlighting a short-term vulnerability in Chinese assets [1] Group 2 - A video call took place between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Yellen, focusing on important issues in bilateral economic and trade relations, with an agreement to hold new rounds of China-US economic consultations [4] - Trump's softened stance indicates that a 100% tariff increase is unsustainable, and he expressed intentions to meet in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Citic Securities maintains an optimistic outlook on the stock market but advises caution in asset allocation [8] - The market's core contradiction lies in the pricing of economic fundamentals, with a need to pay attention to tactical changes in market valuation [9] - The fourth quarter is critical for validating leading indicators' transmission to the economic cycle, with a focus on non-bank sectors and commodity price expectations [9]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China are expected to hold a new round of trade negotiations, with discussions focusing on key issues such as agricultural exports and rare earth supplies[11] - The Nasdaq index rose by 2.1% as market concerns over trade tensions eased following the US's softened stance[12] - The upcoming negotiations may prioritize short-term outcomes and risk management, with a focus on tariffs and non-tariff barriers[12] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump and Putin discussed the potential for a meeting in Hungary, indicating a desire to stabilize US-Russia relations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions[14] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.2% due to concerns over supply surplus and geopolitical easing, while the Russian RTS index increased by 5.4% following the Trump-Putin conversation[14] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[17] Group 3: Domestic US Politics - The US government shutdown continues, with both parties showing little urgency to resolve the situation, reflecting a politically charged environment[18] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may shift legislative power back to Congress, potentially leading to more stringent trade measures[17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan - Author Affiliation: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and tend to rise in the long - term. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities at low prices. The cost side provides strong support due to the cancellation of tax - refund policies and tight scrap aluminum supply. With the end - of - year car sales push, the fourth - quarter seasonal performance may be stronger [6]. - As of October 17, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.31 million tons to 13.41 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory pressure remains. In the second week of October, domestic car sales reached 686,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to boosting car consumption [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The current trading volume, position, and capital precipitation data are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2511 - AD2512 contract pair on October 17, 2025, the fixed cost is 11.54 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 66.17 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 78 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton. Considering storage fees, capital costs, and other factors, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.35% [16][19]. - The short - term refined - scrap price difference is rising [24]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The Baotai ADC12 price remains flat, and the recycled - primary price difference fluctuates. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [31][36]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output share are also presented. For example, Guangdong accounts for 19.65% of the output [41][46]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost is estimated to be above the break - even line [47]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [52][56]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production volume, regional production share, factory inventory, and regional inventory share are provided [59][60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the end - of - year sales push stage, which will drive die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the car inventory warning index and the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts manufacturing [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]