中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继 续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动， 加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大， 努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 ...

中金研究 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[1]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、外围环境仍 有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也 做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改善供给，以实现合理增长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 供求失衡现象仍然比较突出。 一方面，金融周期下行调整，资源配置优化，供给能力得到增强，绿色经济和人工智能产业规模效应显现、出口在贸易摩 擦下持续展现韧性都是供给端竞争力提升的体现。另一方面，周期和结构调整带来需求不足，金融周期下行调整通过明斯基的财富效应以及费雪债务-低 通胀等效应制约国内需求。结构优化与技术进步导致劳动密度和劳动需求下降、就业不充分。继4月政治局会议[2]后，本次会议再次提出更好"统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，并将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。这与"十五五 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of domestic demand as a core driver for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market [1] - The focus has shifted from separately addressing "consumption" and "investment" to a unified approach of "domestic demand," allowing local governments more flexibility in implementing policies to stimulate consumption or promote investment [1] - The policy aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate, with a notable gap of 1923 yuan in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic trends, indicating a potential area for policy intervention [1] Group 2 - Lishang Guochao is focusing on the new consumption and new retail sectors, developing retail business through an online and offline integration model, which is divided into operations and services [2] - Huifa Food is upgrading its "central kitchen + smart dining" model to promote smart dining construction and has established a partnership with the Sha County Snack Group [2]

宏观经济点评 提质增效，科技突围——12 月政治局会议学习 ——宏观经济点评 | | | shenmeichen@kysec.cn hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 1.形势判断：会议对"十四五"成就满意，综合国力有所提升。短期看，会议指出"（2025 年）经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"，指向全年大概率完成 5%的经济发展目标。 中期看，会议对"十四五"成果满意，指出"我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、 制度、外交等软实力明显提升，'十四五'即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征 程实现良好开局"。 相关研究报告 《推动基础设施 REITs 扩围—宏观周 报》-2025.12.7 《通向供需新均衡—2026 年宏观展 望》-2025.12.2 《工业生产与需求边际走弱—宏观经 济专题》-2025.12.1 2.经济目标：经济工作稳中求进、提质增效，预计 2026 年经济目标可能略低于 5%， 对总量增长有一定容忍度，重点是结构调整和科技突破。会议指出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand and supply optimization to support economic recovery and growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "more proactive and effective," maintaining a supportive stance through fiscal and monetary measures [2][3]. - Fiscal policy may see an increase in central government spending, with a potential budget deficit rate raised to 4.5% and continued issuance of special government bonds [2]. - Monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," with structural tools supporting key sectors while overall monetary conditions remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Supply - The meeting highlighted the need to "continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply," indicating a strong focus on enhancing domestic market capabilities [5][6]. - Domestic demand has contributed an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, but challenges remain in aligning supply with demand [5]. - The government aims to create a sustainable mechanism for expanding domestic demand, addressing the mismatch between high-end supply and weak demand [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting called for "innovation-driven development" to foster new economic momentum, aligning with the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. - Emphasis is placed on creating a collaborative innovation ecosystem that integrates government, market, and social resources to enhance technological advancements [7][8]. - Current challenges include insufficient investment in basic research and a disconnect between research outcomes and practical applications [8]. Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The importance of "expanding high-level opening up" and promoting win-win cooperation in various fields was underscored, particularly in response to complex global changes [9][10]. - China aims to diversify trade partnerships and enhance resilience in trade development, with significant projected imports and foreign direct investments from 2013 to 2024 [10]. - Future cooperation will focus on areas such as green trade and international industrial chain collaboration [10]. Group 5: Risk Management - The meeting stressed the need for proactive and prudent risk management in key areas, including real estate and local government debt [11][12]. - Measures have been implemented to address risks in the real estate sector, including optimizing financial policies and establishing a financing coordination mechanism [12]. - The focus will shift towards long-term management of local government debt, with an emphasis on preventing the accumulation of hidden debts [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes a macro policy of "more proactive and effective" while focusing on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with a priority on expanding domestic demand and improving people's livelihoods, awaiting further policy details from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [1][6]. Group 1: Key Features of the Meeting - Domestic demand is prioritized, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote an economy driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth [2][6]. - The macro policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness. Monetary policy continues to express "moderate easing," while fiscal policy aims for precision between proactivity and sustainability, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2026 and new local special bonds expected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion [2][7]. - Despite a temporary reduction in external risks, the emphasis on people's livelihoods remains high, with a commitment to resolving issues such as overdue payments to enterprises and wages for migrant workers [3][8]. Group 2: Specific Deployments for Economic Work in 2026 - In addition to expanding domestic demand, there is an emphasis on "optimizing supply" in tandem, with policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply expected to be implemented [4][9]. - The integration of existing and new policies is highlighted, with approximately 700 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local bond limits expected to support project construction in the first quarter of 2026 [9][10]. - Continuous efforts will be made to address debt resolution and overdue payments, with a focus on mitigating risks in key areas, maintaining a strategy of leveraging central initiatives while controlling new debt at the local level [10].

全面布局'十五五' 2025 年 12 月政治局会议学习体会 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 相关研究报告 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20251207 《策略周报》20251207 《债市测试'平衡边界'》20251207 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 政治局会议表示，2025 年'经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现'，以及 ''十四五'即将圆满收官'。我们认为 2025 年实际 GDP 增速大概率 能够完成 5%的年初设定目标。 2026 年，'更加积极有为的宏观政策'将延续。 从工作思路和政策措施看： 一是'增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性'，与 2024 年 12 月政治局会议措 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to enhance resource allocation efficiency [1][6][21]. Economic Goals and Policy Framework - The meeting highlights the need to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, aiming for both qualitative and quantitative growth in the economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][21]. - The overall policy framework for 2026 will maintain a proactive stance, with a focus on enhancing the quality and effectiveness of development, alongside a more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [2][8][22]. Industry Policy Deployment - The meeting outlines a clear path for industry planning in 2026, prioritizing domestic demand and innovation, which will benefit sectors such as consumer goods, AI, digital economy, and new energy [3][10][24]. - Emphasis is placed on reform, opening up, and coordinated development to enhance high-quality growth, benefiting state-owned enterprises and infrastructure-related sectors [3][10][24]. Implications for A-Share Investment - The meeting provides initial guidance for economic work in 2026, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence in the A-share market [4][17][26]. - Upcoming central economic work meetings are anticipated to detail specific fiscal, monetary, and industrial measures, further activating market vitality [4][17][26]. Investment Focus Areas - The current policy window indicates a clearer structural focus for 2026, with attention on new productive forces such as AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology, alongside recovery paths for manufacturing and resource sectors [12][26]. - The consumer sector is expected to see a favorable investment environment due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, while the trend of companies expanding overseas will enhance profit potential [12][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach to economic work, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while implementing proactive macro policies [2][3][21] - The meeting highlighted the importance of a multi-dimensional policy system that covers both supply and demand, aiming for a transformation in economic growth dynamics through domestic demand and innovation [14][18] - The report outlines the significance of institutionalizing the leadership of the Communist Party in the rule of law, enhancing the governance system and capacity modernization [18][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that the economic work for the upcoming year will adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a focus on quality enhancement and efficiency [3][21] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated policy approach that integrates fiscal, monetary, industrial, and technological policies to effectively support the real economy [13][14] - The report identifies key areas for future investment opportunities, including domestic demand-driven sectors, innovation-driven industries, and the financial sector [22]

Group 1 - The core message of the meeting is the emphasis on domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth, highlighting the need to build a strong domestic market to address insufficient effective demand [3][5] - From 2013 to 2024, China's economy is projected to maintain an average growth rate of 6.1%, with domestic demand contributing an average of 93.1% to economic growth [4] - The meeting underscores the importance of high-quality development, with a focus on improving efficiency and effectiveness in policy implementation to enhance macroeconomic governance [6][7][8] Group 2 - The meeting calls for the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, emphasizing the integration of existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [9] - The meeting indicates that the main economic and social development goals for the current year will be successfully achieved, setting the stage for a good start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] - The resilience of the economy is evidenced by a 5.2% growth rate in the first three quarters and a strong rebound in exports in November [11][12]