21世纪经济报道记者李域 2025年落下帷幕，公募基金成绩单出炉，主动权益基金交出了亮眼的业绩答卷。 翻开融通产业趋势的季报，超额收益来源清晰可见，AI、新消费与创新药。李进将其归结为一种"时代感"的投资。 "巨大的投资收益往往来源于需求大幅扩张、产业规模快速增长的领域。"李进表示，他的日常工作聚焦于追踪社会变迁与产业演进，着力寻找 存在阶段性市场效率缺失、需求尚未得到充分满足的行业。因此，他对成长性行业抱有更高关注度，对这些方向投入更多研究精力，并保持持 续紧密的跟踪。 李进于2023年3月开始担任基金经理，当时就将投资组合全面聚焦于人工智能方向。彼时，市场对该趋势仍存疑虑，但李进判断人工智能代表 一次重大的技术进步，其影响可能超越互联网。其核心依据源于ChatGPT所展现出的用户增长态势——用户量从零到一亿仅用时一个月，如此 高速的扩张历程前所未有。 在形成初步判断后，他开展了产业链验证。自2023年初起，通过调研，观察到光模块等环节出现"每周爆单"的现象，进一步印证了人工智能产 业的真实景气度，从而确立了该方向的配置决策。 2023年年中，他关注到家庭成员开始使用含有胶原蛋白成分的化妆品，由此切入对该细 ...

Core Insights - The pet economy is experiencing significant growth, driven by policy support and emotional demand, leading to new job opportunities in pet care services [1][3][4] - Young professionals are increasingly entering the pet care industry, with a focus on standardizing services and enhancing customer experience [2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The pet economy is being accelerated by government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including the promotion of pet-related services [1][3] - Search volumes for services like "dog walking" and "cat feeding" have seen substantial year-on-year increases since 2025, particularly among the 20-35 age demographic [1] - The market for pet-related services is projected to grow significantly, with Zhejiang province aiming for a market size exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2027 [3] Group 2: Professionalization and Standardization - Professionals in the pet care industry are moving towards team-based and specialized service models, enhancing the quality and reliability of care [2][3] - Standardized service processes are being developed to cater to high-demand clients, particularly for premium pet care services [2][3] - Platforms like Didi are entering the pet service market, promoting standardization and professionalization within the industry [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Demand - Pet owners increasingly view their pets as emotional companions, driving demand for personalized and professional pet care services [4] - The rise of flexible employment opportunities in the pet care sector is attracting many young individuals, although there is a need for ongoing professional development to meet industry standards [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The domestic travel market during the New Year holiday showed steady growth, with 142 million domestic trips and total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the previous year [1][19] - The offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan performed exceptionally well, with sales reaching 712 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.9%, driven by policy benefits and diverse promotional activities [2][20] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors and service industry turning points supported by policies and technology, including duty-free shopping, silver-haired tourism, and parenting consumption [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.18 percentage points, while the retail index underperformed by 2.54 percentage points [9] - Key sectors included tourism retail with a 2.45% increase, while dining and general retail sectors saw declines [9][13] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The New Year holiday saw 142 million domestic trips and spending of 84.789 billion yuan, with significant growth in tourist attractions like Huangshan and Emei Mountain [1][19] - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached 712 million yuan, with a 128.9% increase in sales and 60.6% increase in shoppers compared to the previous year [2][20] 2.2 Investment and Financing - Recent financing events include a 30 million yuan angel round for a self-service bar operator, highlighting the demand for relaxed social environments [24][26] 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Wangfujing Group won a bid for a duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 113 million yuan for the first year [27] - China Duty Free Group signed a contract for a duty-free project at the airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 480.27 million yuan for the first year [28] 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Data - In November, retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year, with a 2.5% increase in retail sales excluding automobiles [32][39] - Online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales, showing a 5.7% year-on-year increase [33][38] 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in Q3 2025 was 177.53 tons, down 18.56% year-on-year, with jewelry demand significantly affected [49][54] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with high growth potential and policy support, including duty-free shopping, silver-haired tourism, and parenting consumption [3][59] - New consumption trends are expected to maintain demand, with leading companies in sectors like trendy toys and health products showing resilience [3][59]

New Consumption Highlights - Yili launched a garlic-flavored yogurt drink, a creative addition to its yogurt series with playful packaging [3] - Lays introduced a new Spring Festival limited series featuring Kung Fu Panda-themed packaging [3] - Watsons released an AI-designed series of Hong Kong landmark packaging for its distilled water products [3] - Heytea collaborated with Pop Mart for a second wave of co-branded products, including a tiramisu-flavored drink [4] - Yili announced plans to launch a -196°C frozen berry-flavored ice cream in 2026, utilizing liquid nitrogen technology [5] - Genki Forest upgraded its "Ice Blast Little Lime" sparkling water with a fresher lemon flavor and new packaging [7] - Nongfu Spring introduced a new "Pure Transparent Square Ice" product at Sam's Club, designed for wine and cocktail use [7] - Manner launched a winter specialty drink, grapefruit hot Americano, available from December 30 [8] - Guming began selling bottled juices in select stores, including 100% HPP apple juice [10] - Xu Fu Ji plans to distribute 100 million candies nationwide as part of a promotional campaign [12] - JD.com will fully implement national subsidies for various home appliances and electronics starting January 1 [15] - Cafe Deco Group from Hong Kong filed for an IPO in the US, aiming to raise up to $13 million [12] - The new Chinese health drink market is projected to reach a scale of 10 billion yuan, driven by the trend of convenient health solutions [12] - Qinghua Fenjiu was recognized as a world-renowned wine town, highlighting its significance in the liquor industry [12] Industry Events - Wuliangye received the Most Investment Value Listed Company award at the 2025 Jin Junma Awards [12] - JD.com announced a partnership with the national subsidy program to support consumer electronics purchases [15] - UU Delivery launched a cross-year rescue service in 20 cities to address transportation challenges during New Year's Eve [16] - Longan's Deep Blue Automotive secured over 6.1 billion yuan in Series C financing to support its electric vehicle platform [20] - Neurable, a brain-computer interface headphone brand, raised $35 million in Series A funding for commercialization [20] - Micro-Nano Star completed a 1 billion yuan Series D financing round, recognized for its capabilities in satellite manufacturing [20] Food Industry Developments - Nissin Foods announced its first foray into the ice cream business through the acquisition of Seria Roile [28] - Hema launched its 2026 New Year Festival, featuring a wide range of festive products [28] - Pizza Hut tested the night snack market with a new brand, Pizza Grill Skewers, in Shanghai [28] - Orion plans to invest 11 billion won to expand its production facilities in Russia by 2027 [28] - Yi Li released its first interactive drama short film in the dairy industry [28] - Xiangpiaopiao announced plans to establish subsidiaries in Singapore and Thailand, investing 268 million yuan in a beverage production base [28] New Brand Initiatives - FILA Kids opened a new store at Beijing Universal City, enhancing its retail strategy [33] - Adidas launched a new pet clothing line inspired by traditional Chinese aesthetics [33] - Kidswant opened a new flagship store in Beijing, marking a significant expansion in high-line cities [35] - Hunter opened its first store in Jiangsu, focusing on a nature-inspired shopping experience [36] - Arome Manpo launched its first flagship store in Shanghai, emphasizing a unique design concept [38]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards imposing tariffs on external demand and subsidizing internal demand, marking an important beginning this year [1][7]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward movement after the New Year, given the relatively low funding enthusiasm at the end of last year and the prevailing sentiment of wanting to see market growth [1][8]. - The overall market sentiment is currently restrained, with many investors waiting for the right entry point, suggesting limited potential for significant market corrections in the absence of major unexpected risks [8]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends adopting a mindset focused on "earning performance money rather than expecting valuation money" for mid-term investments, favoring sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric power equipment, and new energy [1][10]. - There is a cautious approach towards high prosperity and high heat sectors that have seen stagnant stock prices, while new industry themes like commercial aerospace are expected to continue to evolve and warrant ongoing attention [1][10]. Performance Analysis - In 2025, the median return for actively managed public funds tracked by CITIC Securities was 28.2%, ranking third over the past decade, with a significant disparity in returns between the top and bottom deciles [2]. - The overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2025 can be divided into five phases, with notable fluctuations driven by external factors such as tariff impacts and AI application narratives [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The significant money in the structural bull market in 2025 primarily came from the correction of expected divergences and performance growth, particularly in the context of external and internal demand dynamics [4]. - The report highlights that the market's perception of external demand has shifted from optimism to caution, with geopolitical factors influencing expectations throughout the year [7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated structural adjustments in trade policies, including increased tariffs and stricter export controls, indicate a shift in China's approach to external trade, aiming to balance external and internal demand [7]. - The report emphasizes that the market may struggle to quickly price in these significant structural changes, which could serve as both a source of expected divergence and potential performance growth [7].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 过去五年，A股市场以强烈的风格切换和复杂的周期演进，完成了一次完整的压力测试。从2021年"宁组合"与"茅指数"的极致分化对决，到随后 长达三年的估值磨底与信心重构，再到2024年"9·24"后以改革预期和产业升级为内核的慢牛初现，市场不仅经历了从"β盛宴"到"α博弈"再到"新 共识"的范式转移，更对资产管理机构的生存能力与进化能力提出了系统性拷问。 在这一宏大的市场叙事中，经历多轮市场周期的老牌私募（通常指成立十年以上的私募，即2016年1月1日前成立的私募，下同）又带来了怎么 样的业绩？为更清晰了解老牌私募业绩，笔者按照公司规模分类，梳理出各规模组收益十强的私募名单，供读者参考。 0 1 100亿以上：复胜领跑！君之健、龙旗科技居前！ 截至2025年12月26日，百亿规模组中，在私募排排网上至少有3只产品符合排名规则且有近5年业绩展示的老牌私募共有19家，近5年收益均值十 强的上榜"门槛"超 *** %。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募基金不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫描图中二维码或点击文末阅读原文，查 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Rongtong Fund, particularly the Rongtong Industry Trend Fund, which achieved a net value increase of 114.61% in 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 17.02% [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The Rongtong Industry Trend Fund ranked first among standard equity funds, with a specific ranking of 1 out of 349 [1]. - The Rongtong Industry Trend Fund Zhenxuan also doubled its performance, achieving a return of 100.22% in 2025 [1]. - The fund manager, Li Jin, has a strong background in technology and has been focusing on TMT and new energy sectors since joining Rongtong Fund [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Li Jin's investment strategy is centered around identifying sectors with significant demand expansion and rapid industry growth, which he refers to as "investment with a sense of the times" [4]. - The fund's excess returns are attributed to investments in AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4]. - Li Jin began focusing the investment portfolio on artificial intelligence in March 2023, recognizing its potential as a major technological advancement [4]. Group 3: Market Insights - Li Jin observed a rapid increase in the use of collagen-containing cosmetics, leading to a deeper investigation into the new consumption sector, which is experiencing significant growth [5]. - He also identified the innovative pharmaceutical sector as being in the early stages of a new wave of growth, prompting investment in this area [6]. - The combination of AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals forms a strategic "trident" for the fund's investment approach [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, Li Jin anticipates a shift in the economic growth engine from monetary easing to credit expansion, which will support the recovery of the real economy [8]. - He expects corporate profitability to improve due to supply-side optimization and a rebalancing of supply and demand [8]. - Li Jin believes that the overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, predicting a transition from valuation-driven growth to a more balanced approach driven by fundamentals and structural reforms [8]. Group 5: Continued Focus Areas - Li Jin plans to maintain a focus on sectors with long-term growth potential, particularly in AI, which is still in a critical "infrastructure" phase [9]. - He emphasizes the importance of monitoring the demand for computing power and related technologies, which are expected to see continued growth [9]. - The strategy includes ongoing attention to opportunities in new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, aiming to identify high-quality growth leaders in these sectors [9].

Core Insights - The public fund industry has shown a significant profit effect in 2025, with notable performance from the Rongtong Industrial Trend fund, which achieved a net value increase of 114.61%, far exceeding the benchmark of 17.02% [1] - Fund manager Li Jin has been pivotal in this success, focusing on sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which he refers to as a "sense of the times" investment strategy [2][3] Fund Performance - Rongtong Industrial Trend achieved a return of 114.61% in 2025, ranking first among 349 similar standard equity funds [1] - Rongtong Industrial Trend Zhenxuan also doubled its performance with a 100.22% return in the same year [1] - Li Jin has been managing these funds since March 2023, with a strong focus on growth sectors [1][2] Investment Strategy - Li Jin emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with significant demand expansion and rapid growth, focusing on areas where market efficiency is lacking [2] - The investment strategy has been heavily centered on artificial intelligence since March 2023, despite initial market skepticism [2] - Li Jin's research has led to a tactical adjustment in Q3 2025, where he reduced exposure to new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals due to overvaluation and unmet performance expectations [3] Market Outlook - For 2026, Li Jin anticipates a shift in economic growth drivers from monetary easing to credit expansion, which will support the recovery of corporate profitability [5] - The supply-side optimization is expected to enhance corporate earnings, with a forecast of double-digit profit growth for A-shares in 2026 [5] - Chinese companies are increasingly gaining global competitiveness through proactive international expansion, contributing to sustained growth in relevant sectors [6] - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, suggesting a transition from valuation-driven to a more balanced approach of fundamental and structural reform-driven growth [6] Future Focus - Li Jin plans to continue focusing on sectors with long-term growth potential, particularly in artificial intelligence, which is still in a critical "infrastructure" phase [6] - The demand for computing power and related technologies is expected to grow exponentially, with significant capital investments from internet companies [6] - Continuous attention will be given to opportunities in new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, aiming to identify high-quality growth leaders in emerging trends [6]

万事达卡经济研究所研究报告指出，2026年中国消费将呈现出显著的强化趋势，"新消费"品类——如美 容健康、新兴生活方式以及由"粉丝经济"驱动的消费热潮有望持续扩容。特别是消费者从追求"单纯低 价"转向拥抱"精明消费"的变革趋势，正重塑中国零售业与数字渠道的生态。 德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕表示，2026年消费将继续成为中国经济增长的主引擎，预计将为 GDP贡献2.8个百分点，商品消费或将录得温和增长，服务消费亦将在政策支持下持续改善。 中新社上海1月1日电 (记者 姜煜)新年伊始，多家外资机构展望2026年中国经济发展前景时不约而同指 出：消费仍是主引擎，其在中国GDP中的占比将继续提升。 据威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言分析，2025年，中国消费的复苏得益于强有力的财政支持，一个可 喜的迹象是，消费结构正在由商品转向服务，消费者更愿意把钱花在休闲旅游、外出就餐、个人兴趣爱 好及生活方式等体验和享受型消费方面。与此同时，部分细分领域出现高端化趋势，消费者更青睐产品 的设计与品质，而非价格。这些都是在消费信心回升以及商品供给充裕背景下出现的新型消费升级形 态。 "2026年，消费在中国GDP中的占比将继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of consumer behavior in China, highlighting the coexistence of emotional and rational consumption trends, and the implications for investment opportunities in the market [5][22]. Group 1: Consumer Trends - Despite perceptions of a cooling consumer market, data shows that final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 9 percentage points from 2024 [6]. - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, surpassing the 3.5% growth expected for the entire year of 2024 [6]. - A McKinsey survey indicates that the expected share of domestic consumption in disposable income for 2025 is stable at 0.0%, a significant improvement from the previous year's expectation of -0.5% [9]. Group 2: Emotional and Rational Consumption - The article identifies two main trends in consumer behavior: emotional consumption, which focuses on personal satisfaction and identity, and rational consumption, which emphasizes quality and cost-effectiveness [13]. - A Nielsen IQ report reveals that 47% of respondents in China purchased only essential items to avoid waste, while 68% were willing to spend more on products that help relieve stress [13]. - The rise of the second-hand economy is noted, with platforms like Xianyu seeing a daily average of 7 million items listed, reflecting a growing acceptance of "recycling consumption" among young consumers [14]. Group 3: Future Consumption Landscape - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach a market size of 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029 [15]. - The article suggests that the health and wellness industry, as well as the pet economy, will benefit from shifting consumer spending towards self-investment and emotional fulfillment [20]. - The emergence of AI-driven emotional technology and virtual consumption is anticipated to create new market opportunities, as consumers increasingly seek personalized emotional experiences [21].