Group 1 - The service trade fair is a significant platform for the opening, innovation, and cooperation of service trade, and it plays an important role in expanding service consumption [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's consumption market remains the second largest globally, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in social retail sales of consumer goods over the past four years, expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - Service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, becoming a key driver for expanding consumption, with an average annual growth of 9.6% in residents' service consumption expenditure from 2020 to 2024 [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," a series of policies aimed at releasing service consumption potential will continue, including opening up to foreign quality services and reducing restrictive measures domestically [5] - Anhui Province, as the guest province of this year's service trade fair, is exploring diverse new business formats and constructing new scenarios to stimulate consumption enthusiasm [6] - A former grain storage facility in Anhui has been transformed into a cultural and commercial complex, integrating dining, retail, sports, entertainment, and cultural creativity [6][8] Group 3 - The renovated concrete silo in Anhui serves as a unique space for cultural exhibitions and commercial consumption, enhancing the cultural value of physical goods through service experiences [8] - The incorporation of AI technology in sports, such as a digital serving machine that analyzes players' movements, showcases the innovative approaches being adopted in the service sector [10] - International visitors, like German tourist Paula, express appreciation for the friendly service in China, indicating a positive perception of the service industry [12] Group 4 - The dual drive of technological strength and cultural soft power is highlighted as a distinctive feature of Anhui's service trade development during the fair [14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the context of increasing external uncertainties [2] - It highlights the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the removal of restrictive measures to stimulate market vitality [2] - The report identifies service consumption as a key area for growth, noting its significance in stabilizing growth, employment, and livelihoods [2] Group 2 - The report calls for optimizing mechanisms to expand investment, focusing on high-quality implementation of major national strategies and key projects [3] - It mentions the establishment of new policy financial tools to encourage private sector participation in major projects, particularly in the nuclear power sector [3] - The report outlines the introduction of a universal childcare subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per year for families with children under three years old, benefiting over 28 million families [4] Group 3 - Recent central government actions target "involution" in key industries, aiming to regulate low-price competition and promote product quality [5] - The report stresses the need for a unified national market and the regulation of chaotic competition in various sectors, including emerging industries like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [6] - It suggests differentiated strategies for traditional and emerging industries to manage capacity and support innovation, while avoiding heavy-handed administrative interventions [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption to stimulate domestic demand and economic growth [1][2] - Service retail sales in China increased by 5.2% year-on-year in the first seven months of this year, indicating a growing share of service consumption [1] - The tourism market saw a significant increase, with domestic travel reaching 3.285 billion trips, a 20.6% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The film market also showed strong performance, with total box office revenue exceeding 39.2 billion yuan and over 909 million moviegoers by the end of August [1] - The concert market experienced a robust growth of approximately 40% in ticket sales in the first half of the year [1] Service Consumption Development - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement a series of policies to enhance service consumption quality and expand service supply [2] - Initiatives include the "Service Consumption Season" to create new consumption hotspots and improve the operational environment for the catering industry [2] - The government aims to address the shortage of high-quality service supply, particularly in areas like elderly and child care services [2][3] Home Service Sector - There is a growing demand for home services, prompting efforts to expand supply and improve the quality of service through vocational training [3] - The establishment of a credit system for home services is intended to create a favorable consumption environment [3] - The government is focused on reforming and innovating to attract more high-quality services and foster new growth points in service consumption [3]

Core Insights - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [1][3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases this month, with a tail effect from last year's price changes contributing approximately -0.9 percentage points to the CPI [1] - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, with service prices also showing a gradual increase since March [1][2] Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline is primarily influenced by falling international commodity prices, particularly crude oil, which has significantly impacted domestic oil and gas extraction and related industries [3] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships and the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, leading to positive price changes in certain industries [3][4] Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods is providing significant support for prices within the covered range, with household appliance prices rising by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2] - The ongoing optimization of market competition and the emergence of new economic drivers are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, with a focus on key industries and the potential for a PPI recovery cycle [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is emphasizing the importance of service consumption as a key driver for economic growth and improving people's livelihoods, with various policies being implemented to stimulate this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - In the first seven months of this year, China's service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a rising share of service consumption [1]. - Domestic tourism saw significant growth, with 3.285 billion trips taken by residents in the first half of the year, a 20.6% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The film market is performing well, with total box office revenue exceeding 39.2 billion yuan and over 909 million moviegoers by the end of August, both surpassing last year's figures [1]. - The concert market also showed strong performance, with ticket sales increasing by approximately 40% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement a series of policies to enhance service consumption, focusing on optimizing and expanding service supply and stimulating the vitality of business entities [2]. - Initiatives include the "Service Consumption Season" to create new hotspots in service consumption and actions to improve service quality in response to public concerns [2]. - The government aims to enhance the dining industry, which is closely linked to daily life, by promoting events like "Chinese Food Festival" and "Taste Food with Movies" to cultivate dining consumption hotspots [2]. Group 3: Home Service Sector - In response to the growing demand for home services, the government will promote the expansion of home service supply and conduct vocational training to improve the skills and quality of home service personnel [3]. - Efforts will be made to establish a credit system for home services to create a favorable consumption environment [3]. - The government is committed to reforming and innovating in the service sector to attract high-quality services and foster new growth points in service consumption [3].

(2) 每日分分 1:00 e y e 10% 23 连平 程实 * STERNAL 2 . GLIS 7 . 0 / 7 芦哲 . 汪毅 主持： 毛佳慧 张玮华 服务消费发展呈现结构性特征 上海证券报：当前，服务消费发展呈现哪些特点？ 连平：总量上，服务消费增长快于平均消费增速，贡献度上升。上半年，服务业增加值39万亿元，同比 增长5.5%，较2024年增长0.5个百分点；服务业对国民经济增长的贡献率为60.2%，同比上升5.8个百分 点。 圆桌嘉宾： 广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家 连 平 工银国际首席经济学家 程 实 东吴证券首席经济学家 芦 哲 长城证券首席经济学家 汪 毅 7月中央政治局会议提出，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同 时，培育服务消费新的增长点。 扩大服务消费有利于消费转型升级，有助于形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环。我国服务消费领域发 展情况如何？如何理解发展服务消费的必要性？未来的增长潜力在哪里？本期"上证圆桌"邀请广开首席 产业研究院首席经济学家连平、工银国际首席经济学家程实、东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲、长城证券首 席经济学家汪毅，对上述议题展开探讨。 ...

Core Insights - The importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan": The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to significantly impact China's economic and social development over the next five years, shifting focus from production to a balance between production and consumption due to the current issue of insufficient effective demand [1] - Strengthening consumption policies: Starting in 2024, consumption policies will be significantly enhanced, including the allocation of special government bond funds to support consumption upgrades. Continued funding is expected in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Potential of service consumption: China's service consumption still lags behind developed economies, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth in this sector to stimulate consumer interest and optimize the consumption environment [1] - Rise of technology consumption: With a rapid technological development and an engineering talent surplus, products like robotic vacuum cleaners and drones are gaining market attention, likely creating new consumer demand [1] - Optimization of the overall consumption mechanism: Measures such as consumption tax reform will encourage local governments to transition from production-oriented to service-oriented, promoting the internationalization of quality consumption companies and enhancing residents' consumption capacity [1] Investment Recommendations - Food and Beverage: Recommended companies include Dongpeng Beverage and Lihigh Food, with a focus on Youran Dairy and Bairun Co [2] - Service Sector: Recommended companies include Guming, Mixue Group, and Bubugao, with a focus on Zhongsheng Holdings [2] - Light Industry: Companies to watch include Hengfeng Paper and Xilinmen [3] - Trendy Toys: Recommended companies include Pop Mart and Blokus [4] - Home Appliances: Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Electronics H, Roborock, and Ecovacs, with a focus on Yingshi Innovation [5] - Agriculture: Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co, Petty Co, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group [11] - Textile and Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta Sports, Xtep International, 361 Degrees, and Hailan Home, with a focus on Li Ning and Sanfu Outdoor [11] Report Content Analysis - Expanding consumption share: The report emphasizes that expanding consumption share is essential for achieving Chinese-style modernization, as China's consumption rate is significantly lower than that of developed countries [9] - Shift in fiscal spending: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, fiscal spending will shift from material investments to human capital investments, increasing support for education, healthcare, and housing [9] - Promotion of common prosperity: The report highlights the need for income distribution reform and the promotion of the Zhejiang common prosperity model to achieve balanced development [9] - Consumption tax reform: The report suggests that consumption tax reform will help local governments transition from production-oriented to service-oriented, enhancing the consumption environment [9] - Transition from traditional to new consumption: The report analyzes the maturation of traditional consumption markets and the rise of new consumption, which is characterized by a focus on quality and personal satisfaction [9] - Stimulating interest in service consumption: The report indicates that the shift from physical to service consumption is crucial for expanding domestic demand, with growing demand for events and performances benefiting local consumption [9]

科技引领下的服务消费新机遇系列 20250908 摘要 当前消费受居民收入限制，但地方政府在服务消费供给侧的努力可能带 来超预期效果，尤其是在 AI、对外开放和财政金融支持方面，这些因素 可能传导至资本市场。 预计 9 月出台的文件框架可能延续《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意 见》的思路，涵盖家政、养老托育、文旅体育等行业，并融入对外开放 和城乡均衡发展方向。 未来服务消费趋势将与科技和对外开放深度结合，数字化、智能化、绿 色化是关键方向。新质生产力改造消费者体验，如机器人 6S 店的普及， 将提升社会对新旧动能转换的认知。 对外开放方面，海南在特许医疗和跨境数据流动方面具有优势。新药可 在海南先行进入中国市场，游戏出海的数据跨境在海南成功率更高，可 能出现"来数加工"的新模式。 中国可借鉴日本和韩国经验，通过供给侧改善促进服务消费。例如，支 持动漫博览会、利用便利店嵌入消费场景等。国内城市也在简化审批流 程，提高演艺团体运营效率。 Q&A 近期服务消费政策的主要特点是什么？ 根据 8 月 27 日国新办发布会，扩大服务消费的若干政策措施将在 9 月份出台。 长期来看，服务消费政策的重视不仅是短期现象，而是整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed sentiment in the A-share market, highlighting the influx of foreign capital amid recent market volatility and government policy changes aimed at boosting consumption and attracting investment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant drop in the A-share market was observed, with a large number of stocks hitting their daily limit down, indicating a rush of capital out of the market [1]. - The market experienced a rebound on Friday, but the volume was low, raising concerns about the sustainability of this recovery [4]. - The sentiment among retail investors is cautious, with many feeling uncertain about the market's direction and the influence of foreign capital [6]. Group 2: Government Policies - The government is expected to introduce measures to expand service consumption, which includes various sectors such as tourism, healthcare, and property management, aimed at encouraging foreign investment [1][3]. - Recent policy announcements, including a reduction in fund subscription fees, are designed to stimulate market activity and return capital to retail investors [3][5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - There is a notable interest from foreign investors, with reports of long-term funds increasing their positions in Chinese stocks, particularly in sectors like alcohol, internet, and high-dividend utilities [4][6]. - The recent U.S. labor market data has led to a shift in capital flows, with foreign capital returning to emerging markets, including China, as the dollar weakens [3][5]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The article highlights a divergence in sector performance, with gold stocks surging due to rising prices and expectations of interest rate cuts, while energy stocks faced declines amid concerns over demand [5]. - The market is seeing a rotation among sectors, with stocks related to new consumption policies gaining attention, while traditional sectors struggle [4][5].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 5, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 188.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 594.6 billion yuan for the day [3] - The total net withdrawal for the week was 12,047 billion yuan, with 10,684 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing from September 8 to 12 [3] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank funding market remains stable and slightly loose, with overnight repurchase weighted rates around 1.31% and overnight quotes at approximately 1.30% [5] - Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against certificates of deposit and credit bonds, with latest quotes around 1.45%-1.47% for overnight and 1.45%-1.46% for seven-day funds [5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.66%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [8] Group 4: Bond Yield Movements - Major interbank bond yields have collectively risen, with one-year government bonds at 1.3925%, two-year at 1.75%, and ten-year at 1.7700% [9] Group 5: Government Debt Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 1,570 billion yuan in two-year bonds and 1,500 billion yuan in seven-year bonds on September 12 [19] - Local governments are also set to issue special bonds, with Guangxi planning to issue 362.4454 billion yuan in local debt on September 12 [15] Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan is increasing its minimum wage by 6.3% to a record 1,121 yen (approximately 7.56 USD), which supports the wage-price cycle and provides backing for potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [17]