今日（1.26），A股震荡走低，大消费窄幅震荡。规模领跑的消费ETF（159928）探底回升收平，全天成交额近8亿元，环比放量 102%，上演"金针探底"走势。资金面上，全天大举揽金2.6亿份，近10日大举净流入超16亿元！最新规模超228亿元，同类遥遥领先！ 白酒方面，1月23日，洋河股份预计2025年全年归母净利润为21.16亿元至25.24亿元，同比下滑62%-68%，创下公司上市以来最大年度 跌幅。更为关键的是，洋河股份删除了此前"现金分红不低于人民币70亿元"的承诺，引发了投资者广泛关注和不满。截至收盘，洋河 股份跌9.85%，逼近跌停，创下2017年以来新低。 政策方面，1月26日，有关部门举行新闻发布会，指出将优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进家电等大宗耐用商品消费。此外，消息人士 称，加快培育服务消费新增长点相关政策近日将推出。1月16日召开的重要会议提出，要加快培育服务消费新增长点，支持新业态新 模式新场景竞相涌现，增加优质服务供给，解决好信用、标准、安全管理等问题，促进服务消费提质惠民。 国际黄金突破5000美元，老铺黄金"逆势打折"股价飙升。1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元，再刷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as investment opportunities arising from policies promoting service consumption [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a 1.80% increase, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62% [8][10]. - The report notes that the hotel and restaurant sectors showed positive performance, with hotel stocks rising by 3.69% and restaurant stocks by 3.31% during the reporting period [18]. Related Companies - Recommended companies include hotels with balanced supply and demand such as Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Huazhu Group, as well as human resources services like Core International and Beijing Renli [5]. - The report also highlights companies in the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, such as China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [5]. - Other notable mentions include online and offline integrated platforms like Meituan and Alibaba, and innovative tourism companies like Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - Mingming Hen Mang is the largest leisure food and beverage retail chain in China, formed by the merger of "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" in November 2023, aiming to address industry pain points through scale procurement and efficient turnover [4][9] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 39.34 billion and a net profit of CNY 0.83 billion in 2024, with nearly 15,000 stores [4][10] - The leisure food industry is experiencing rapid growth, with Mingming Hen Mang's revenue increasing from CNY 4.286 billion in 2022 to CNY 39.344 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 282.17% [10][13] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.45% in 2022 to 9.73% in Q1-Q3 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 1.67% to 3.36% in the same period [10][16] - The report highlights the acceleration of brand consolidation in the snack retail sector, with the top five chain retailers contributing CNY 2.1 trillion in GMV, accounting for 57.1% of the food and beverage industry [17][20] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail sector is witnessing a significant increase in store numbers, with major players like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group expanding aggressively across the country [23] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing with Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group leading the market, holding over 70% of the market share in the snack retail sector [17][23] Financial Performance - Mingming Hen Mang's revenue and net profit for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are reported as follows: CNY 4.286 billion, CNY 10.295 billion, and CNY 39.344 billion for revenue; CNY 0.72 billion, CNY 2.17 billion, and CNY 8.34 billion for net profit, respectively [10][13] - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 46.371 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, surpassing the total revenue of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 75.21% [10][13] Market Position - In 2024, Mingming Hen Mang's GMV reached CNY 55.5 billion, securing a market share of 1.5%, making it the largest leisure food and beverage retail chain in China [17][20] - The report suggests that investors should actively consider opportunities in the snack retail sector, especially with Mingming Hen Mang's upcoming H-share listing on January 28 [17][24]

Core Insights - The "Companionship Economy" emerges as a new consumption model focused on emotional connection, alleviating loneliness, and seeking spiritual resonance, showcasing significant market potential and social value [1][2][3] Group 1: Definition and Characteristics - The "Companionship Economy" refers to consumers paying for goods or services with companionship attributes to gain psychological comfort, social connection, and emotional satisfaction [1] - Unlike traditional service economies that meet functional needs, the "Companionship Economy" emphasizes emotional interaction and psychological support, where the value is determined by emotional resonance and connection [2] Group 2: Social and Psychological Drivers - The rapid rise of the "Companionship Economy" is rooted in profound social changes and psychological foundations, such as urbanization, increased population mobility, and smaller family structures, altering emotional and social needs [3] - According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, as material needs are met, the demand for belonging, love, and respect becomes stronger, leading individuals to seek emotional fulfillment and social recognition [3] Group 3: Market Implications and Innovations - The growth of the "Companionship Economy" creates new business models and industries, including pet services, virtual companions, paid companionship, and social experience workshops, generating numerous job opportunities [4] - Traditional industries are integrating emotional value into their services, shifting from standardized offerings to emotionally engaging experiences, such as restaurants providing friendly seating for solo diners and elder care facilities incorporating pet therapy [4] - Technological innovations, including AI, IoT, and virtual reality, are being utilized to develop more interactive and human-like companionship products, bridging emotional connections through technology [4] Group 4: Challenges and Regulatory Needs - As a nascent model, the "Companionship Economy" faces challenges that require regulatory guidance, including the establishment of industry standards and service norms to ensure quality and consumer protection [5] - It is essential for companies to uphold social responsibility and ethical standards, understanding that true companionship is rooted in sincerity and respect, avoiding the commercialization of emotional needs [5] - The development of AI companionship products must prioritize data security and privacy protection, alongside thorough ethical evaluations [5]

北京商报讯（记者 和岳）1月25日上午，北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议在北京会议中心开 幕。市长殷勇作政府工作报告。 报告提出，北京将加大对教育、健康、养老、托育等服务消费政策支持，鼓励平台创新发展家政等服务 业务，加快培育服务消费新增长点。促进文商旅体展深度融合，延伸大型活动消费供给链条，推出更多 休闲、时尚、滨水、冰雪等消费新场景，推广离境退税一点通办新模式，大力发展赛事经济，精心筹办 世界田径锦标赛等国际赛事和北京马拉松等群众体育活动。 ...

来源：北京日报客户端 1月25日上午，北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议在北京会议中心开幕。市长殷勇作政府工作报 告。 在回顾2025年工作时，报告提出，北京着力优化新供给扩大新需求，因地制宜用好"两重""两新"政策， 积极争取超长期特别国债等各类资金，推进地方政府专项债"自审自发"试点；优化投融资体制机制，面 向民间资本推介重大项目总投资约2350亿元；深入推进国际消费中心城市建设，深化境外人员服务便利 化改革，入境游客增长39%，全市旅游人次和收入再创历史新高，数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费蓬勃 发展，服务消费增长5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's economic strategies and policies for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption as key drivers for economic growth in the face of global uncertainties [15][16]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Domestic Demand - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference identified eight key economic tasks, with a focus on "domestic demand as the main driver" [16][17]. - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, with domestic demand contributing over 67% to economic growth [17]. - The shift from "stimulating domestic demand" to "domestic demand as the main driver" reflects a strategic upgrade in economic policy, emphasizing coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [17][18]. Group 2: Income Growth and Consumer Spending - In 2025, the actual growth of per capita disposable income in China was 5%, aligning with economic growth [18]. - The Central Economic Work Conference introduced a systematic "urban and rural residents' income increase plan," marking a fundamental shift in the logic of expanding domestic demand [18][26]. - Increasing residents' income requires a multi-faceted approach, including employment support, wage growth, and improved social security measures [18][19]. Group 3: Service Consumption and Quality Supply - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding the supply of quality goods and services, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [19][20]. - Service consumption has become a core driver of economic recovery, shifting from material capital-driven to human capital-driven growth [19][20]. - Policies are being optimized to enhance service quality and expand access to services, particularly in sectors like healthcare and education [20][21]. Group 4: Urban Renewal and Investment - Urban renewal is positioned as a dual driver of investment and consumption, with a projected market size exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [23][24]. - The focus on high-quality urban renewal involves a shift from simple renovation to comprehensive system reconstruction, prioritizing public needs and sustainable development [24][29]. - Urban renewal is expected to create significant investment demand across various sectors, including housing, infrastructure, and public services, thereby stimulating economic growth [25][29].

Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior among young people, emphasizing a preference for real-life experiences and local activities, driven by a philosophy of enjoying the present and returning to offline experiences [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - By 2025, the order volume for services related to a happy life on the Meituan app is expected to grow by 36% year-on-year, with consumers born after 1995 accounting for nearly 60% of this growth [1] - Nine key trends in service consumption for 2025 include: saving for happiness, experiential alternatives, value for money, pursuit of certainty, low-cost socializing, internal nurturing and external practice, IP collaborations, returning to nearby experiences, and local play [1] Group 2: Experience Economy - The concept of "saving happiness" is emerging, where consumers can enjoy various experiences at low costs, such as attending open mic events or trying new activities for minimal fees [4] - The search volume for "experience classes" is projected to increase by 70% year-on-year, with the supply of classes priced under 10 yuan rising by nearly 152% [4] - New flexible payment models, such as monthly subscriptions for fitness services, have seen over 100% growth compared to the previous year [4] Group 3: Emotional and Therapeutic Spending - The demand for therapeutic services is on the rise, with searches for related keywords increasing by 112% and the number of merchants providing such services growing by 111% [8] - Young consumers are increasingly engaging in activities that promote emotional well-being, with traditional Chinese therapies like acupuncture and massage seeing nearly 50% growth in the number of physical locations [8] Group 4: Local Experiences and Micro-Vacations - The trend of "returning to nearby" experiences is gaining traction, with urban micro-vacations becoming popular, characterized by short, local, and high-experience activities [12] - By 2025, the number of comprehensive stores is expected to grow by nearly 40%, with mixed-use venues that offer various services becoming a third space for urban dwellers [12] Group 5: Brand and Trust in Services - The report indicates that consumers are increasingly valuing the skills of service providers, with 68% of hair salon customers paying attention to stylist information [11] - The number of active hairstylists on Meituan is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year, with significant consumer engagement in stylist portfolios [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The service retail sector is expected to see a 5.5% year-on-year growth in retail sales by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% in the happy life segment from 2021 to 2025 [17] - The online segment is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 35.7%, indicating substantial potential for online service retail [17]

Group 1 - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China surpassed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, reaching 50,120.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] - Online retail sales amounted to 15,972.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, contributing to 52.0% of economic growth, which is a 5 percentage point increase from 2024 [2] - The growth in consumer spending is seen as a key driver of China's economic growth, showcasing the strong vitality and internal momentum of the economy [2] Group 2 - Service consumption retail sales accelerated significantly, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 1.7 percentage points, with tourism, health, and education services emerging as new growth points [3] - The shift from "having" to "quality" is evident, particularly in the automotive sector, where production and sales reached 34.53 million and 34.40 million units respectively, marking increases of 10.4% and 9.4% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 19.8% [4] - The consumption market is increasingly focused on quality, with online retail continuing to grow rapidly, achieving an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and new retail models like unmanned stores and membership warehouses also seeing double-digit growth [5] Group 3 - The expansion of the consumption market, especially in service consumption and quality consumption, is providing sustained momentum for high-quality economic development in China [6] - There is significant potential for growth in the consumption rate, which currently stands at about 40%, indicating a gap of 10-20 percentage points compared to developed countries [6] - Recent policies aimed at stimulating consumption include optimizing product and service supply, enhancing consumer capacity and willingness, and improving the consumption experience [6] Group 4 - The focus on increasing residents' income is crucial for unlocking social consumption potential, with ongoing research into plans for job stability and income growth for urban and rural residents [7] - As residents' disposable income increases, their confidence in consumption is expected to strengthen [8]

行 华福证券 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 黄金珠宝：金价高位走强，关注春节旺季销售。春节旺季金价走强， 民众基于"买涨"心理，旺季期间预计行业消费量下降有限，而金价同比 大幅上涨，主要品牌 1-2 月同店有望保持较快增长。建议关注一口价产品 占比高的潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福，其他建议关注高股息的周大生、菜 百股份。 华福证券 风险提示 宏观经济波动；需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： ...