投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 下游需求疲弱，煤焦低位运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦炭日 产量 109.47 万吨，周环比基本持平，小幅下降 0.02 万吨/天；全国 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 226.58 万吨，焦炭供需均在低位企稳，基本面无明 显好转。整体来看，焦炭短期基本面依然疲弱，但需求端预期有所好转， 市场多空僵持，期货主力合约暂维持低位震荡运行，关注后续下游生产和 采购节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 74 万 吨，环比下降 1.8 万吨，同比偏低 2 万吨；焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 109.47 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.02 万吨。进口方面，12 月截至 20 日， 288 口岸累计蒙煤通关 26498 车，环比 11 月的高基数进一步增长 23.0%，蒙煤高进口对国内煤价形成压制。供应整体持稳，需求维持低 位，焦煤供需格局中性仍偏宽松，使得产业链各环节焦煤均有所累库。整 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a new digital RMB framework and the continuation of proactive fiscal policies in 2026, aimed at enhancing financial support for economic growth [9][5]. Group 1: Digital RMB Framework - The new digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will officially be implemented on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The People's Bank of China has validated the feasibility and reliability of the digital RMB through over six years of research and four years of pilot programs, establishing a dual-layer operational structure involving the central bank and commercial financial institutions [10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding the fiscal expenditure envelope to ensure necessary spending [5][12]. - Key measures include optimizing the government bond tool mix, enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds, and improving the structure of expenditures to support key areas [12]. Group 3: Cross-Border Financing - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notification to facilitate domestic enterprises in raising funds efficiently in overseas financial markets, including unifying foreign currency fund management policies and simplifying management procedures [10][11]. - The notification aims to reduce cross-border financing costs and enhance financial flexibility for enterprises, promoting the internationalization of the RMB [11]. Group 4: Real Estate Policy - Beijing has adjusted its real estate policies to relax purchasing restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children, allowing them to buy additional properties under certain conditions [15]. - This policy aligns with the central government's economic directives and aims to stimulate real estate market activity [15]. Group 5: Market Measures - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with an estimated total reduction exceeding 1.9 billion yuan, aimed at lowering costs for listed companies and investors [16]. - These measures are intended to enhance market liquidity and support the real economy by reducing transaction costs [16][17]. Group 6: Currency Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed the 7 yuan mark against the US dollar, reflecting a combination of external pressures easing and internal economic resilience [18]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the US dollar, particularly in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [18].

观点总结 重点关注 周一国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.60-4.50bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益 率上行2.30、3.50bp左右至1.86%、2.26%。周一国债期货走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分 别下跌0.07%、0.18%、0.28%、0.91%。资金面临跨年压力，DR007加权利率回升至1.59% 左右。国内基本面端，11月全国规上工企业利润同比持续回落，但高技术制造业等新兴行业利 润保持较快增长，工业结构持续优化。11月工增、社零边际放缓，固投持续负增长，失业率保 持平稳。11月金融数据出现结构分化，直接融资提振下，社融增量超预期；信贷持续走弱，居 民贷款为主要拖累，企业中长期投资需求依然偏弱。受基数效应影响，M1、M2增速回落， M1-M2剪刀差再度走阔。消息面上，全国财政工作会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财 政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。海外方面，美国消费支出强劲推动第三季度 实际GDP年化环比大幅增长4.3%，同期核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。美国总统发言表示希望 下一任美联储主席在经济和市场情况良好时继续降息，市场对未来利率下行预期升温。 ...

爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存小幅下降，市场逢回调采买增加，现货升水高位；海外LM 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 E库存延续增长。技术面，成交放量持仓高位，多空分歧增大。观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整，关注M A5支撑，上方13关口阻力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 125710 | -10 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12910 | -45 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | 0 -7950 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -15276 | -121 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 84501 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 47462 | -426 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9100 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 290 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.21 | -0.08 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 12840.49 | 2900.8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具 组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领 域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。深入实施提振消费 专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant weakness on December 29, driven by expectations of supply pressure under a proactive fiscal policy, leading to a decline in government bond futures and an increase in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.91% to 111.82, the 10-year main contract down 0.28% to 107.975, and the 5-year main contract down 0.18% to 105.84 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 3.65 basis points to 2.255%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.45 basis points to 1.86% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 4,823 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 4,150 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 1.0 basis point to 1.248%, while the 7-day rate rose by 11.0 basis points to 1.558% [6]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [8]. - Key tasks for 2026 include boosting domestic demand, increasing investment in new productive forces, and enhancing basic social safety nets [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state in the first quarter, with a neutral monetary policy expected and potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted increased volatility in long-term bond yields and suggested that despite pressures, long-term bonds still offer relative value for allocation [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The Chinese Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expanding fiscal expenditure and supporting the replacement of consumer goods. In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The market's main line rotates quickly, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 4000 points. Whether the trading volume can continue to expand is crucial. The stock index may fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current bond market lacks significant positive or negative factors, and its trend is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. Without unexpected events in the last few trading days of the year, the market may remain dull. In the short term, if both short - and long - term yields enter a sideways consolidation, there is a risk of yields rising again to test the upper limit of the range since November [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to 3963.68 points. Non - ferrous metals, steel, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while electronics, comprehensive, and light manufacturing sectors led the losses [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate with a slight upward bias [9]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to move in a range [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.36% to 112.960 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10% to 108.300 yuan, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05% to 106.050 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% to 102.548 yuan [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate with a slight upward bias [10]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The bond market is expected to move in a fluctuating manner [10]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded from a low to 49.2%, still below the boom - bust line and lower than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 49.4%. The rebound was driven by a pulse - like strengthening of external demand. However, the rebound was weak as the business climate of large enterprises declined. The price index of purchased raw materials reached a 5 - year high, indicating an expected rise in PPI month - on - month growth. The rebound was still weak in three aspects: the reading was significantly lower than the same period in previous years, the pressure of contraction was still spreading, and the downturn had lasted for a long time [17]. CPI - In November, the year - on - year CPI strengthened, and the month - on - month PPI remained positive, due to seasonal factors, the low - base effect, and "anti - involution". The year - on - year CPI has fluctuated below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and the year - on - year PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating weak domestic demand. At the end of the year and during the Spring Festival, the year - on - year CPI is expected to continue to rise, and the year - on - year PPI is also expected to rebound [20]. Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $3303.5 billion, imports were $2186.7 billion, and the trade surplus was $1116.8 billion. Labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products respectively drove the overall export growth in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01%, with the driving rates increasing by 1.03pp, 5.06pp, and 1.55pp respectively compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America strengthened, but since November 9, the year - on - year growth rates of global, US imports, and China's container bookings to the US have continued to decline, indicating a high probability of pressure on December exports [22][23]. Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service production index dropped to 4.2%. The reasons for the weakening of industrial added value are the suppression of "anti - involution" on the output of key industries and the high base established by strong production after policy implementation in September 2024 [24][27]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year fixed - asset investment (FAI) fell 2.6%. It is estimated that the year - on - year FAI in November was - 11.1%, a slight increase from October. Private investment growth rebounded to - 12.9%, while public investment growth continued to decline to - 8.9%. In terms of expenditure directions, the year - on - year growth of construction and installation projects/equipment and tools purchase in November decreased to - 16.1% and 6.3% respectively, and the growth of other expenses slightly rebounded to - 13.8%. Infrastructure and real estate investment growth continued to decline, while manufacturing investment showed a slight increase [30]. Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales (SRS) dropped to 1.3%, lower than market expectations and the weakest since 2023. The reasons for the weakening of SRS are the weakening of durable - goods consumption after the reduction of national subsidies, the weak performance of the "Double 11" sales, and the continued weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption [33]. Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. Bills continued to be used for volume - boosting, and medium - and long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to increase less year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing scale remained at 6.3%. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization in the future [36].

2025年，我国保持支出强度，全年一般公共预算支出超过29万亿元。同时，顺利发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，更大力度支持"两重"项目， 加力扩围实施"两新"政策。 央视网消息：12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开。记者从会议上了解到，2025年，我国积极财政政策打出一系列"组合拳"，有力 有效支持经济向新向优发展。 新增地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元。盘活5000亿元债务结存限额，补充地方综合财力。发行5000亿元特别国债补充国有大型商业银行资本，有 力增强信贷投放能力。 值得一提的是，2025年，更加积极的财政政策在供需两端激发消费潜力，出台实施个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策。 此外，2025年，更加积极的财政政策精准发力支持高质量发展，大幅增加基础研究投入，组织开展新型技术改造城市试点、中小企业数字化转 型试点。 同时，持续加强民生保障，充实稳就业政策工具。逐步推进免费学前教育，提高国家奖学金、助学金标准，建立育儿补贴制度。数据显示，财 政在中国式现代化建设中的支撑和保障作用越来越强。 中央财经大学财税学院教授白彦锋介绍，"十四五"时期相比上一个五年，我们国家财政实力进一步增强。财政收 ...