Group 1: Fiscal Policy Directions - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting the construction of a strong domestic market through increased tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost consumer spending [1][3] - It highlights the need for high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, focusing on strengthening investment in technology and supporting key core technology breakthroughs [1][4] - The article discusses the necessity of optimizing the tax structure and improving the relationship between central and local finances to enhance fiscal sustainability and support local governments [4][5] Group 2: Employment and Social Welfare - The article stresses the priority of employment, supporting enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs, and addressing structural employment issues [3] - It calls for improvements in education quality and accessibility, as well as strengthening the social safety net for vulnerable populations [3] - The article mentions the importance of enhancing public health services and the capacity of grassroots medical services [3] Group 3: Debt Management - The article outlines the need to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, emphasizing the importance of sustainable fiscal development [4] - It suggests implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy, including the replacement of hidden debts and strict accountability for violations [4][5] - The article proposes optimizing debt replacement methods based on the nature of the projects and their expected returns [5]

Group 1 - The UK and US have reached an agreement allowing UK pharmaceuticals to enter the US tariff-free, in exchange for reduced funding returns to the UK's National Health Service (NHS) [2] - The US Trade Representative's office announced that the UK will increase its net price for new drugs by 25% [2] - The agreement will reduce the rebate rate on drug sales from approximately 23% to a maximum of 15% [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has issued a new list of industry sectors eligible for infrastructure real estate investment trusts (REITs), including clean energy projects such as wind, solar, and nuclear power [6] - The list aims to enhance investment in energy infrastructure and promote sustainable development [6] Group 3 - The UK government plans to permanently link undergraduate tuition fees in England to inflation and impose a 6% surcharge on international students' fees to fund domestic students [19] - This marks a significant adjustment to the higher education funding system in the UK, which has faced criticism from universities and student groups [19] Group 4 - ByteDance has clarified that it is collaborating with mobile manufacturers, including ZTE, to develop an AI assistant software but has no plans to create its own smartphones [23] - The company is currently in discussions with multiple phone manufacturers for assistant collaborations [23] Group 5 - Apple announced the retirement of its AI chief, John Giannandrea, who will continue as an advisor until spring 2026, with Amar Subramanya taking over his role [26] - Subramanya will oversee key areas including Apple's foundational models and AI safety [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies to promote urban-rural integration and expand modernization development space [1] Group 1: Urban-Rural Integration and Development - The government aims to solidify urban-rural integration and enhance the overall development space [1] - There is a focus on improving rural infrastructure and public service supply to create livable and workable rural areas [1] Group 2: Agricultural Support and Food Security - The article highlights the need for high-standard farmland construction and effective use of agricultural subsidies and insurance [1] - It mentions the implementation of inter-provincial horizontal benefit compensation mechanisms for grain production and sales areas to strengthen the stability of important agricultural products [1] Group 3: Urban Renewal and New-Type Urbanization - There is a strong push for urban renewal initiatives that prioritize human-centered new-type urbanization [1] - The government supports the deep implementation of regional coordinated development strategies to further optimize economic development space [1]

财政事关治国安邦、强国富民，在推动高质量发展和中国式现代化建设中承担重要职责。"十五五"时期 是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化。从国际 看，外部环境动荡不安，大国博弈更加复杂激烈，单边主义、保护主义抬头，世界经济增长动能不足。 从国内看，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，同时 产业结构、商业模式、人口结构、财富分配等发生显著变化，一些领域风险尚未出清。这些对财政运 行、宏观调控、财税改革等产生深刻影响，必须有效应对形势变化，从危机和困难中捕捉和创造机遇， 切实提高财政政策效能、财政宏观调控能力和财政科学管理水平，更好推动高质量发展。工作中需要把 握好以下几点。 习近平总书记强调，财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱。党的二十届四中全会深刻把握历史方位和发展 大势，全面擘画"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展蓝图，对发挥积极财政政策作用提出明确要求。我们要 以改革的思维、创新的精神，完整准确全面贯彻全会部署，统筹生财、聚财、用财之道，有力有效实施 积极的财政政策，为以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业提供坚强财政保障。 一、 ...

Core Points - Japan's stock and bond markets faced significant declines on December 1, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 1.89% and bond prices plummeting, leading to the highest yields since 2008 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a high opening but fell over 1,000 points during the day, closing with a 1.89% decline [1] - Japanese government bond prices fell sharply, with the two-year bond yield rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.015%, marking the highest level since 2008 [1] - The yield on the newly issued 10-year government bonds reached 1.840%, the highest since June 2008 [1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have intensified due to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for aggressive fiscal policies and a commitment to maintain loose monetary policy [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank would weigh the pros and cons of a potential interest rate hike, suggesting a cautious approach [3] - Speculation about a possible interest rate increase in December has been growing, with the yen depreciating by 5% against the dollar this quarter, making it the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies [4] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase the issuance of short-term bonds to support the economic stimulus plan proposed by Prime Minister Kishida, raising the issuance of two-year and five-year bonds by 300 billion yen [4] - The issuance of 6.3 trillion yen in treasury bills is also planned, which may exert pressure on Japan's short-term sovereign bonds [4] - Analysts suggest that caution regarding Japanese bonds is prudent due to potential inflation acceleration and a significant increase in mid-term government bond issuance affecting supply-demand balance [4]

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue growth is gradually recovering, with national public budget revenue reaching 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [3] - Local public budget revenue also shows positive growth, with a 1.8% increase, indicating a stable economic environment [3] - The quality of fiscal revenue is improving, with steady growth in tax revenue and a decline in non-tax revenue [4] Fiscal Revenue Growth - National public budget revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [3] - Local public budget revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3] - Most regions reported positive revenue growth, with 27 out of 31 provinces showing increases compared to the previous year [3] Fiscal Expenditure - Local public budget expenditure reached 177,056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [6] - Significant growth in social welfare spending was noted in Hunan Province, with increases in community, environmental, and educational expenditures [6] - Shanghai's public budget expenditure grew by 8% compared to the same period last year, focusing on key areas like technology and industry [6] Support for Key Areas - The government is actively promoting consumption and investment through fiscal policies, with a focus on major projects and social welfare [7] - The issuance of government bonds in Anhui Province totaled 395.93 billion yuan, supporting infrastructure and social projects [7] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to support local governments in managing existing debts and funding new projects [7] Future Fiscal Policies - Many regions have begun preparations for 2026 special bond projects, aiming to align funding with key development areas [8] - The emphasis is on ensuring that fiscal policies continue to support local debt resolution and economic stability [8] - The focus on budget preparation for 2026 aims to create a stable macroeconomic environment for the upcoming planning period [8]

Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government approved a total economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen, with 17.7 trillion yen from supplementary budget arrangements and 2.7 trillion yen from tax cuts [1] - The spending is divided into three categories: 11.7 trillion yen for "living security and price measures," 7.2 trillion yen for "crisis management and growth investment," and 1.7 trillion yen for "strengthening defense and diplomacy" [1] Economic Performance - Japan's GDP decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the second negative growth since Q1 2024 [2] - The decline is attributed to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the automotive industry, which has been severely affected [2] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing challenges [2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase [2] - Significant price increases were noted in rice (up 40.2%), chocolate (up 36.9%), and coffee beans (up 53.4%) [2] - The depreciation of the yen is contributing to rising consumer prices, with imported price increases being passed on to domestic retail [2] Market Reactions - Concerns over Japan's fiscal deterioration have intensified, leading to a depreciation of the yen, which fell to its lowest level in 10 months [3] - The yield on newly issued 20-year government bonds reached 2.810%, the highest in 26 years, while the 10-year yield hit approximately 1.8%, the highest since 2008 [3] - The Tokyo stock market has experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping below 49,000 points [3] Fiscal Policy Changes - The government has abandoned its goal of achieving an annual fiscal surplus, which is seen as a significant policy shift [4] - The scale of supplementary budgets has increased dramatically post-pandemic, with the current budget reaching 17.7 trillion yen [4] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of expansionary fiscal policies without reliable funding sources, drawing parallels to the UK's "Truss shock" [4] Economic Cycle Concerns - The large-scale economic stimulus measures may not effectively address high inflation and could potentially exacerbate the situation [5] - Analysts suggest that the government's approach may lead to a "vicious cycle" where stimulus measures fail to alleviate economic pressures [5] - Critics argue that the government's fiscal policies are neither "active" nor "responsible," with calls for a reassessment of the current strategy [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, it is difficult for the easing to materialize in the short term, and it is unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid upward movement. It is still in the stage of oscillating and accumulating energy. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of laying out at low levels. In the short term, it is currently in a data vacuum period, and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is highly cautious. The bond market may show a slight recovery, mainly depending on the capital situation and risk - aversion sentiment. After the tax payment period this week, the capital situation may further ease, and the central bank's bond - buying may boost market sentiment. Coupled with the adjustment of risk assets, it is expected to boost risk - aversion sentiment [11][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: After the tax payment period, the capital situation has loosened. With the short - term news being calm, the market may be waiting for policy guidance from the December meetings. Treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations across the board and closed slightly higher [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities showed narrow - range fluctuations. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.813%, up 0.05bp [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank capital situation loosened. There were 283 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 538.7 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating a further alleviation of capital pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day rate rose 2.96bp to 1.47%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.61% - 1.62% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Domestic News**: The issuance of treasury bonds has entered a dense period. On November 24, the Ministry of Finance tendered and issued 97 billion yuan of book - entry coupon - bearing treasury bonds and 60 billion yuan of book - entry discounted treasury bonds. On November 26, two short - term treasury bonds will be issued. The Ministry of Finance will continue to pre - issue the new local government debt quota for 2026. As of November 23, the total scale of new special bonds issued by local governments this year has reached approximately 4.2315 trillion yuan, and the issuance progress of new special bonds has reached 96% [13] - **International News**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled interest rate cuts, and the market's bet on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has exceeded 50%. The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Sanae has approved the largest - scale additional expenditure since the pandemic, with a general account expenditure of 17.7 trillion yen (112 billion US dollars) and a total stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures, including trading data such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume of different contracts on November 24, as well as information on the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different maturities and varieties [6] - **Money Market**: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and the average FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve [35]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On November 21, the liquidity situation continued to ease, but market sentiment remained weak, leading to a volatile adjustment in the bond market. The convertible bond market followed the decline of the equity market, with most convertible bond indices and individual bonds falling. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies mostly decreased as well [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - Starting from next June, savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products [3]. - From January to October this year, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 14.7% year - on - year, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has entered a dense period, which is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies [3]. - **International News** - On November 21 local time, New York Fed President John Williams said there is room for further interest rate cuts in the near term [4]. - The preliminary value of the U.S. Markit Composite PMI in November reached the fastest growth in four months, with the service industry accelerating and the manufacturing industry slowing down [5]. - **Commodities** - On November 21, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, while international natural gas prices turned up [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On November 21, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates** - Due to the end of the tax period and continuous net injections by the central bank, the liquidity situation continued to ease on November 21. Key funding rates such as DR001 and DR007 declined [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yields** - On November 21, despite the stock market decline, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted due to weak market sentiment. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - On November 21, the 3 - year "25进出清发007(增发15)" was tendered, with a issuance scale of 2 billion yuan and a winning yield of 1.6542% [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 21, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0中骏02", deviated by more than 10%, rising by over 71% [13]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced important events, including debt restructuring, bond exchange offers, regulatory warnings, and cancellations of bond issuances [14][15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 21, the three major A - share indices fell, and the convertible bond market also declined. Most convertible bond indices and individual bonds fell, with a decrease in trading volume [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 24, "卓镁转债" will be listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced price adjustments, potential redemptions, etc. on November 21 [18][19]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On November 21, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and the yield spreads between different maturities changed [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On November 21, except for the 10 - year government bond yield in the UK, which increased, yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally declined [23]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 21, prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed, with some rising and some falling [25].

Group 1 - The Japanese market has experienced a significant change in sentiment since November, characterized by declines in stocks, bonds, and the yen, leading to a "triple hit" of equities, bonds, and currency [2][4]. - The Nikkei average index fell by 3% last week, with a total decline of 7% compared to the end of October, while the yen depreciated by 2% and long-term interest rates rose by 0.12% [4][9]. - The initial positive interpretation of Prime Minister Kishida's fiscal expansion has shifted as concerns about the negative impacts on the stock market have increased [6][8]. Group 2 - The Japanese government's comprehensive economic measures, amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, have raised concerns about the sustainability of public debt supported by private savings amid stable inflation expectations [6][8]. - The depreciation of the yen to the 157 yen range against the dollar is attributed to "re-inflation policies" under inflation, which may lead to a loss of confidence in the government's low inflation commitments [6][8]. - The decline in the Nikkei index, when calculated in USD, has exceeded 9%, indicating a significant reversal of gains from the "Kishida trade" [9][10]. Group 3 - The yield spread between long-term rates and the earnings yield of TOPIX 500 stocks is narrowing rapidly, indicating a potential overvaluation of stocks at a 10-year high [10]. - Concerns are raised about the lack of political parties prioritizing fiscal discipline and efficient spending, which could exacerbate the negative reactions in the bond and currency markets [10]. - Despite the overall negative sentiment, there are signs of capital shifting towards undervalued stocks in sectors like automotive and engineering, suggesting that not all market participants are pessimistic [10].