Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is evolving from a verbal dispute into a systemic crisis, challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [1][5]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump has publicly criticized Powell, calling him "slow and incompetent," and has suggested that he could easily replace him if desired [1][3]. - The White House is reportedly exploring the possibility of replacing Powell, with former Fed governor Kevin Walsh as a potential successor [1][5]. - This power struggle is not merely about policy differences but poses a broader challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve and the stability of the global financial system [1][8]. Group 2: Powell's Position - Powell, appointed by Trump, has maintained the Fed's traditional independence and has resisted political pressure to implement monetary easing [3][6]. - His commitment to data-driven policy adjustments, especially in the context of ongoing inflation and high interest rates, has frustrated Trump, who seeks a more compliant monetary policy to support his re-election efforts [3][6]. - The potential removal of Powell could set a dangerous precedent, undermining the Fed's operational independence and transforming it into a political tool [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's economic policies, including tax cuts and trade wars, have contributed to inflation and economic instability, which he now attributes to Powell's actions [6]. - Economists and market participants largely support Powell, warning that political pressure on the Fed could lead to higher inflation and unemployment [6][8]. - The credibility of the Fed, built on its commitment to non-political decision-making, is at risk if the independence of the institution is compromised [6][8].

美国人竟然熬夜刷中国电商Ap p囤货！ 本期《财经早察》来拆解中国电商Ap p在美国一夜爆火的原因。 出品：财经早察工作室 总统筹：邓红辉 执行统筹：陈晨星 祝乃娟 主播：董静怡 编辑：洪晓文，陆跃玲，曾婷芳 设计：王冰 本期编辑 金珊 苹果、特斯拉难了？美国关税战反噬巨头产业链 6G要来了！下一个万亿赛道？ 美债风波背后是美元信用危机 SFC 21君荐读 谁能想到，一场美国发起的关税大战，反而让中国的2个电商平台在美国一夜爆红。最近，跨 境B2B平台敦煌网和淘宝突然冲上美国Ap p St o r e下载榜前两名，甚至把Ch a tGPT都挤到了身 后。 ...

作者： 分析师 刘奕町 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523050001 分析师 曾先毅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524060002 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 证券研究报告 2025年04月15日 行业报告 | 行业投资策略 黄金股与黄金的"剪刀差"收敛时间到了吗？ （2）本轮黄金购买力量的复杂性：本轮黄金价格上涨背后的购买力量相比历史周期更加多元和复杂，短中长期叙事有各自聚焦的指标与逻辑，随着宏 观环境的复杂多变，价格的判断难度进一步加大。 （3）业绩兑现度的预期方差大：金价在屡创新高中的分歧亦影响市场对黄金股业绩增长的高度与久期的判断，市场对黄金股业绩预期的方差波动较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 金属与材料 黄金与黄金股的"剪刀差"收敛，从商品到权益资产的价值传导 一、黄金商品与权益缘何背离——资产属性不同，金价定价因子复杂化，黄金股业绩预期方差大 （1）底层资产属性不同：黄金作为实物商品，价格主要由通胀预期、避险需求及全球货币信用环境等因素影响。而黄金股作为权益类资产，其价格取 决于企业盈利能力、运营成本及市场对金价持续性的预期。 二、黄金股 ...

本次电话会议仅服务于国泰海通证券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰海通证券客户内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰海通证券研究所审核后方可留存国泰海通证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发 尊敬的各位投资者朋友大家好我是国泰海通宏观的分析师梁中华 今天呢我来给大家汇报一下我们今年团队推出的系列专题报告叫全球的货币变局为什么要推这个专题呢其实最近一段时间大家感受应该非常明显全球的产业链供应链在面临比较大的冲击同时呢全球的资产定价也发生比较大的波动 而且资产定价的这个框架呢可能跟之前都不太一样其实这里面的很大程度上是来自于全球的整个经济体系和货币体系的变革那么货币体系和经济体系为什么会出现变革呢其实是因为各国之间的信任程度出现了变化而这种信任程度的变化呢从大的层面来讲呢 他其实是属于整个世界的秩序啊在面临重构因为世界秩序重构所以各国的关系也在发生变化那么进而影响产业链供应链影响大类资产的定价所以呢看起来现在跟以前很多情况是不一样的那包括看起来也比较乱我们团队呢是给大家提供一个视角来思考这些问题提供一个思考的框架来理解这些问题 那么今天重点要讨论的呢是全球的货币变迹的系列专题之五然 ...

每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 高涵 上周，全球市场风起云涌，贸易政策俨然成为风暴中心，触发了市场的剧烈波动。权益资产大幅下挫的同时，传统的避险资产美债和美元也不 避险了，接连大跌。 周一（4月14日），美元指数亚洲时段进一步出现下挫；ICE美元指数日内最低一度下探至99.34，延续了上周以来的下跌态势；彭博美元指数也 一度下跌0.4%，逼近去年10月以来的新低。截至14日收盘，美元指数4月已累跌4.31%，今年累跌超8%。周二（15日）亚洲早盘，美元汇率总 体稳定，但仍逼近上周触及的多个关键低点。 年初至4月14日，美元指数、主要货币以及美元计价黄金涨跌情况 图片来源：每经制图 上周五（4月11日），欧元对美元汇率升至2022年2月以来最高水平，美元对瑞士法郎跌至2015年年初以来低位，美元对日元汇率则降至去年9月 以来低位。美元指数当天盘中一度跌至99.00点，是2022年年初以来新低，也是2023年7月以来首次跌破100点。 主要货币对美元多数上涨，瑞郎和日元明显受益于其避险属性。上周，瑞郎涨至2015年以来高点，周内大幅收涨5.3%；日元同样大涨2.3%。 不少分析人士表示，特朗普政府的所谓"对等关税"，正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of U.S. financial hegemony, highlighting the impact of protectionist policies under President Trump, which have led to a loss of confidence in U.S. assets and a potential shift in the global monetary system [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Financial Hegemony - The U.S. financial hegemony, established over decades, is facing unprecedented challenges due to trade protectionism and geopolitical shifts [6][10]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from over 71% in the early 2000s to below 60% by the end of 2023, indicating a decline in global trust in the dollar [6]. - The U.S. has historically relied on its alliances to maintain the dollar's status, but recent unilateral actions have caused dissatisfaction among allies, prompting them to seek alternatives to the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - Trump's aggressive tariff policies are undermining the established multilateral trade order, leading other countries to explore alternative currencies for trade settlements [7][8]. - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could challenge the stability of U.S. Treasury securities and weaken the Federal Reserve's independence, further jeopardizing the dollar's reserve currency status [8][9]. - Countries like China and members of the EU are actively promoting the use of their currencies in international trade, which could diminish the dollar's dominance [7][9]. Group 3: Dollar's Credit Crisis - The current situation is characterized as a credit crisis for the dollar, with rising gold prices and other currencies appreciating against the dollar, reflecting a loss of confidence [5][6]. - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $35 trillion by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar [6]. - The use of the dollar for financial sanctions has made other countries wary of holding dollar-denominated assets, further eroding trust in the currency [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express concern that the current asset sell-off in U.S. markets may be just the beginning, with potential long-term implications for the dollar's status [7][9]. - If the U.S. fails to address its fiscal deficits and continues its current policies, the risk of a significant decline in the dollar's international standing could increase [9][10]. - The article warns that if the dollar's credit continues to deteriorate, U.S. Treasury securities may become problematic, leading to broader financial instability [9].

Core Viewpoint - The risk of "stagflation" in the US economy is increasing, with deep concerns about the creditworthiness of the US dollar emerging due to aggressive tariff policies [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The aggressive tariff policies under Trump's administration are disrupting the global situation, with the US economy and financial markets being the most affected [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury prices over five consecutive days has led to a cumulative increase of nearly 50 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield, reaching 4.48%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2002 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has experienced a significant drop, with foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs shifting to a bearish outlook on the dollar's performance [1] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - In contrast, China's economic fundamentals, policy support, and valuation advantages are expected to continue driving the "revaluation of Chinese assets," reinforcing the narrative of "the East rising and the West declining" [1]

【机构观点分析】 瑞达期货：全球去美元化趋势逐渐显露凸显黄金配置价值 申银万国期货：政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金 混沌天成期货：长期的美元信用和债务逻辑驱动仍旧驱动贵金属的强势 FXStreet：避险需求推涨金价但降息押注下降限制涨幅 世界黄金协会：经济不确定下黄金需求激增目前金价的涨势基本面更加稳固 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞达期货表示，市场避险情绪支撑金价强势运行并续创历史新高。市场对于美债供应担忧加剧叠加美国 政府信用风险攀升，美元反弹动能受到抑制，全球去美元化趋势逐渐显露，凸显黄金配置价值。受消息 面驱动，市场风险偏好抬升，流动性紧缺边际缓解，助推金银价格上行。黄金在降息预期提振以及央行 持续购金的支撑下或维持其强劲上行趋势，中长期逢低布局逻辑不变。 申银万国期货表示，政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金。此前特朗普所谓"对等关税"把金银等贵金属 排除在关税之外，令由持续性的价差套利导致的现货挤兑缓解，呈现价格的回补。此外市场进一步计价 衰退逻辑，全球动荡加剧。后续市场的主要指引来自于市场形成对特朗普关税政策更为明确的预期、各 国的政策反制／谈判走向、美国经济是否会显露更多实质性的衰退信号、美联储政策 ...

| 11/11/2 | 国资期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月09日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属震荡。美国对等关税政策是近期主线,今日已正式生效，全球经济降速风险高,后续关注各国如 何应对,众多国家依然有谈判惑据,金融资产承压下短期依然可能对历史高位的黄金产生地界,行情处于高 波动状态,观望为主。美元信用危机和经济走弱前景下金银比或维持高位。 ★特朗普:与韩国代总统进行了愉快的通话,其他国家都希望与美国达成协议。美贸易代表:总统不会接受 华尔街主导经济的局面,关税没有"例外和豁免",没有谈判时间表。 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星 ...

来源：每日经济新闻 3月22日晚间，"金价"相关话题一度冲上微博热搜榜首。 自去年以来，黄金价格持续上涨，频频刷新历史新高，3月20日，伦敦现货黄金盘中创下3057.51美元/盎司的历史高点。3月21日，国际金价出现回调，伦 敦现货黄金价格最低触及每盎司2999.268美元；COMEX黄金期货跌至每盎司3028.2美元，下跌0.51%。 上海期货交易所主力合约（沪金2504）夜盘收盘价跌至705.14元/克。 此前已有多家大型商业银行作出反应，向投资者发出风险提示公告或调整黄金投资的门槛，其中建设银行、工商银行等机构已是年内多次发布类似公告。 据北京商报23日报道，在社交平台上，不少消费者分享着自身刷卡买金的经验，这些消费者主要是金价下跌时通过刷信用卡买入黄金，待金价上涨时再卖 出，以赚取差价获利，有消费者甚至表示，自己信用卡刷了30万元购买黄金。 图片来源：网页截图（北京商报） 为防范信用卡"炒金"行为，近期，兴业银行、江苏银行发布公告， 明确信用卡仅限于持卡人本人日常消费使用，不得用于投资理财领域，包括但不限于黄 金等投资性贵金属、股票、基金等。 01 多家银行提示贵金属风险 3月21日，建设银行在官网向 ...