Group 1 - South Korea's exports showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in the first 20 days of June, a significant improvement from a 1.3% decline in May [1] - The trade surplus reached $2.62 billion, with imports growing by 5.3% during the same period [1] - The semiconductor industry saw a notable export growth of 21.8%, while automotive exports increased by 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The South Korean government announced a supplementary budget of 30.5 trillion won ($22.2 billion) to support the economy amid weak consumption and external trade pressures [2] - The supplementary budget includes 15.2 trillion won for economic stimulus, 5 trillion won for support to small and medium enterprises, and 10.3 trillion won to fill current budget revenue gaps [2] - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 2.5% and reduced the annual growth forecast to 0.8%, indicating potential further easing if conditions worsen [2]

Core Insights - Companies not affected by tariffs view the chaos in trade policy as an opportunity to raise prices [1] Group 1 - Businesses unaffected by tariffs are leveraging the current trade policy confusion to increase their pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the final direction of trade policy is currently uncertain, and its potential impact on prices and employment remains unclear [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Trade Policy Uncertainty** - There is no definitive conclusion on the future trajectory of trade policy [1] - **Impact on Prices and Employment** - The effects of trade policy on pricing and employment levels are not yet understood [1]

智通财经6月21日电，美联储巴尔金表示，目前数据显示没有紧迫的理由进行降息，就业市场和消费仍 然保持坚挺，目前尚未确定贸易政策的最终走向，也不清楚其将如何影响价格和就业；企业预计今年晚 些时候将提高价格，因为更多价格较高的进口商品已进入其库存；未受到关税影响的企业将贸易政策的 混乱视为提价的契机。 美联储巴尔金：目前数据显示没有紧迫的理由进行降息 ...

美联储货币政策报告：市场流动性已有所改善，但市场状况仍对贸易政策相关消息保持敏感。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate that many members expressed concerns about increasing downside risks to the economy and prices, emphasizing the need for careful examination of each country's trade policies and their developments [1] Group 1 - Many members of the Bank of Japan highlighted the necessity to scrutinize trade policies due to rising economic and price risks [1]

此外，12名联邦公开市场委员会(FOMCP)内有投票权的委员中，有4名明年也将作出轮调。这种转变可 能会在2026年11月3日举行的中期选举前支持经济。因此，安本预期，美联储对2026年和2027年降息的 预期将在踏入2026年时发生变化。 上述主管解释称，美国总统特朗普的90天暂缓落实对等关税措施于2025年4月9日开始，并将于2025年7 月8日结束。另外，美国和中国之间的90天暂缓落实关税于2025年5月14日开始，并将于2025年8月12日 结束。同时，美国正启动更广泛的双边谈判策略，积极与18个主要贸易伙伴接触。美国政府也继续利用 第301条款(不公平贸易行为)和第232条款(国家安全)关税作为其贸易政策框架的一部分。这些事件的最 终形态和结果仍不明朗，并将影响经济、通胀、货币和市场情绪。 展望2026年，安本预期，美联储领导阶层的变动可能会进一步改变政策格局，主席鲍威尔的任期将于 2026年5月15日结束，预计将任命一位新主席。凯文.哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)、凯文.沃什(Kevin Warsh)和 斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)等潜在继任者被认为立场更为鸽派，并与特朗普的 ...

瑞士央行金融稳定报告：自上次报告以来，相关经济和金融状况已恶化。经济和金融前景高度不确定， 特别是由于贸易政策和地缘政治紧张局势。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：贸易政策和财政政策的变动仍存在不确定性。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：市场情绪恶化，反映出对贸易政策的担忧。 ...