1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, which is expected to have severe impacts on the copper market and Chilean exporters [1] - Chile is a major supplier of copper to the U.S., accounting for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports in 2024, with exports valued at over $6 billion in 2023 [1] - The new tariffs have already driven copper prices to historical highs, influenced by both actual supply shortages and speculative trading [1] Group 2 - Although the U.S. market accounts for less than 13% of Chile's total copper exports, the tariff's impact extends beyond trade volume, potentially weakening the Chilean peso and increasing local costs [2] - A decline in copper export revenues could exacerbate Chile's public finance pressures, as public debt was 42% of GDP and the fiscal deficit was 2.9% in the previous year [2] - Chilean officials and industry leaders face strategic decisions on whether to risk losing the U.S. market or to explore opportunities in other markets, particularly in Asia and Europe [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to restructure global economic governance through high tariffs, dollar depreciation, debt swaps, multilateral currency negotiations, and security fees, indicating potential challenges for the dollar system [1] Group 1: Dollar System Challenges - The internal dilemma of the dollar's reserve status stems from its provision of global liquidity since the Bretton Woods system, leading to persistent trade and current account deficits [6] - The demand for dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds is driven by strategic, risk-averse, and national security considerations rather than trade balance [6] - The implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could trigger a sell-off of dollar assets, although the current domestic holding of U.S. Treasuries exceeds foreign holdings, which may mitigate drastic market reactions [6] Group 2: Trade Policies and Currency Dynamics - High tariff policies may narrow the U.S. trade deficit in the short term but cannot fundamentally alter trade structures or address the hollowing out of manufacturing [11] - A single trade policy is insufficient to disrupt the currency landscape; a macro-level approach involving coordinated policies across trade, fiscal, monetary, and industrial sectors is necessary [15] - Even if trade balances change, the distribution of international monetary power may not shift correspondingly due to institutional inertia [15] Group 3: Global Monetary Governance - The global monetary governance structure will not rapidly restructure due to short-term maneuvers; it requires a systematic replacement path involving technology, governance capabilities, and legal foundations [16] - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could negatively impact China’s economy and industries, particularly in electronics, metallurgy, and transportation equipment sectors [16] - Under unilateral pressure and currency depreciation, China's manufacturing sectors, especially in high-tech fields like semiconductors, may face significant losses [20] Group 4: Future of Currency Systems - The U.S. is attempting to create a new global currency anchor system involving "dollars + gold + digital dollars," necessitating China to propose systematic institutional options for participation [21] - The current trade disputes are evolving into currency wars, highlighting the need for the renminbi to establish its own safe asset attributes and financial institutional discourse power to challenge the dollar's dominance [21]

美东时间7月10日周四，媒体援引知情者消息称，本周三，纽约精品投行Allen & Co.举行的公司年会 上，主持人要求贝森特比较他的现任和前任老板，贝森特表示，特朗普和索罗斯两人的脾气和要求、以 及对待事情不耐烦这点都相似。他建议特朗普，在双方讨论贸易公告时保持耐心。 知情者称，在上述不公开的公司年会闭门讨论期间，贝森特称赞特朗普，拥有发现问题和找到解决方案 的独到能力，但也表示，特朗普在执行过程中有时缺乏耐心。 美国财长贝森特被传在最近的一场闭门会议上爆特朗普的料，暗示他可能在特朗普的贸易政策上有影响 力。 据知情者，贝森特在回答现场听众提问时试图淡化特朗普政府关税对通胀的影响，并预测，今年美联储 将有两次降息。他还说，长期借贷成本可能与新冠疫情前持平。 目前不清楚贝森特对最近特朗普的关税决策有多大影响。据央视新闻，7月7日周一，也就是对日韩等14 国发函通知8月1日起新对等关税生效当天，特朗普签署了行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实 施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 特朗普的行政令相当于将7月9日这个之前的关税"大限"推迟到了三周多之后的8月1日。这实际上为贸易 伙伴延长了谈判时间，将谈判截止期延 ...

Core Viewpoint - The threat of a 50% tariff on all goods from Brazil by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the Brazilian financial markets, leading to declines in both currency and stock indices [1] Market Reaction - The Brazilian real fell by 0.8% against the US dollar, continuing its previous day's decline [1] - Stock index futures dropped by 1.5% [1] - Interest rate swap contracts experienced a widespread decline [1] - In the New York market, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF saw a pre-market drop of 3.2% [1] Trade Policy Implications - Brazil has re-entered Trump's trade policy focus after months of relative calm, leading to expectations of increased market volatility in the short term [1] - The proposed tariff is significantly higher than the previously anticipated 10% base rate [1] - Uncertainty remains regarding how effective negotiations between the two countries can be conducted [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Ilan Albertman from Ativa noted that this tariff threat adds new risk factors to Brazilian local assets, potentially leading to greater volatility [1] - Companies with significant exposure to the US market may need to reassess their cash flows and valuations in light of this development [1]

美股三大股指期货维持在平盘附近，美国前副总统迈克·彭斯批评唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策，称这与他 第一任期内的贸易政策截然不同，将损害美国消费者和企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has once again fallen below the $3,300 threshold, with market attention shifting towards the details of trade policies and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - The current price of gold is under pressure, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming trade policy details, which could impact gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights that may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3] Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will shut down, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, Trump escalated trade tensions on Monday, warning 14 countries of higher tariffs, but the effective date was postponed to August 1. The market is waiting for the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes [1] - Domestically, as of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total capacity was 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2] - In the aluminum plate and strip field, enterprises actively reduced production due to insufficient orders and high inventory. In the aluminum cable field, July orders are pessimistic, but the delivery expectation of State Grid orders in the second half of the year is good. Aluminum profile enterprises have weak new orders and are under pressure due to intense processing fee competition [2] - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots will increase steadily in early July [2] - Currently, the off - season inventory accumulation has initially appeared, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing increases, and attention should be paid to domestic policy promotion [3]