Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1]. - There is still room for further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, with the PBOC emphasizing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1]. Group 2: Structural Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has introduced a series of monetary financial policies earlier this year, optimizing the policy elements of structural monetary policy tools [1]. - Interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and a dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan for private enterprises has been established [1]. - The PBOC has increased the re-loan quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan and for technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - The support scope has been expanded to include carbon reduction support tools and re-loans for consumer services and elderly care [1]. Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain the stable operation of financial markets, manage expectations, and keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level [2]. - There will be enhanced supervision and management of the bond market, foreign exchange market, money market, bill market, and gold market [2]. - The PBOC will continue to utilize two monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the capital market [2].

Group 1 - The 2026 first loan market quotation rate (LPR) remains unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the consistent performance of major market interest rates and the lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR due to pressure on net interest margins [1][2] - Since June 2022, the LPR has remained stable, supported by strong exports and rapid development in high-tech manufacturing, allowing the macro economy to withstand external pressures [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented 10 policy rate cuts since the second half of 2018, leading to a decrease in the weighted average interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans to around 3.1% [2] - A structural "rate cut" was announced, reducing the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set for various loan terms [2] - Experts suggest that the timing for a comprehensive rate cut may be delayed due to the recent structural rate cut and the high initial credit growth at the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - The PBOC's deputy governor indicated that there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts, with the average ratio currently at 6.3% [3] - The stability of the RMB exchange rate and the ongoing easing of the USD provide a favorable environment for potential rate cuts [3] - The effectiveness of monetary policy transmission from the central bank to the financial system and then to the real economy is expected to improve, emphasizing the need for coordinated macro policies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, due to the loose fundamentals and the iron - water production falling short of expectations, the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - For coke, with the supply being tight and the blast furnace operation rate and molten iron output of steel mills declining simultaneously, the fundamentals have limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1129.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the position volume is 649591.00 lots, down 15352.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 86396.00 lots, up 23778.00 lots; the spread between the JM9 - 5 contracts is 74.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts is 700.00, down 1700.00; the basis of the JM main contract is 176.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - **Coke**: The closing price of the J main contract is 1683.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the position volume is 40095.00 lots, down 134.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 931.00 lots, down 70.00 lots; the spread between the J9 - 5 contracts is 75.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of warehouse receipts is 2220.00, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract is - 18.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1035.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Russian coking coal forward spot is 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian imported coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the weekly inventory is 323.20 million tons, down 11.90 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 0.37%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - The monthly raw coal output is 43703.49 million tons, up 1024.19 million tons; the monthly coal and lignite import volume is 5860.00 million tons, up 1455.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 197.80 million tons, up 7.90 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 562.40 million tons, up 10.50 million tons; the weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 1132.85 million tons, up 61.17 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.91 days, up 0.11 days; the monthly coking coal import volume is 1376.98 million tons, up 303.83 million tons; the monthly coking coal total supply is 5239.57 million tons, up 183.04 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 72.55%, down 0.14 percentage points; the weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 65.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton; the monthly coke output is 4274.26 million tons, up 103.96 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of coking coal for 247 steel mills nationwide is 802.20 million tons, up 4.47 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke for 247 sample steel mills is 650.33 million tons, up 4.60 million tons; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills is 11.97 days, down 0.05 days [2] - The monthly coke and semi - coke export volume is 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills nationwide is 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points; the monthly crude steel output is 6818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity and key area protection will not weaken [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - **Coking Coal**: The load of coal washing plants on the supply side continues to rise, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the raw coal inventory accumulates. On the demand side, the load of steel and coke declines, the molten iron output drops, the losses of coking enterprises expand, and the profits of steel mills recover. The spot market has a certain willingness to accept goods. Technically, the main contract of coking coal closes down 1.83% [2] - **Coke**: The operation of coking enterprises on the supply side declines, and the total coke inventory is at a low level in the same period. On the demand side, the blast furnace operation rate drops, and the daily molten iron output decreases. The price increase proposed by mainstream coking enterprises is still in the game. Technically, the main contract of coke closes down 0.59% [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract edged higher. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The supply - demand situation shows that hot - rolled coil production has been increasing for four consecutive weeks with a capacity utilization rate of 78.77%, terminal demand is stable, and inventory continues to decline. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, but weak furnace materials put pressure on steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The reference view is oscillating bearish, and risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,286 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the position volume was 1,449,160 lots, down 36,985 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 12,725 lots, up 1,177 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 216,302 tons, down 300 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 169 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 24 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, up 2 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 165.5081 million tons, up 2.7087 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 404,800 tons, down 35,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.502 million tons, up 43,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.4931 million tons, up 85,600 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.46%, down 0.60 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0836 million tons, up 28,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.77%, up 0.72 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 765,300 tons, down 7,900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.858 million tons, down 50,100 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] Industry News - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will maintain a necessary level. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.66% and a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8.30% and a year - on - year increase of 6.53% [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "Cold Clouds Cannot Hide the Morning Light, Spring Approaches with Thousands of Trees Competing for Glory" forecasts a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment in China [1] Monetary Policy - The report suggests the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with a focus on guiding exchange rate expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations in the currency [1] - It is recommended to allow the RMB to appreciate moderately by about 5% in 2026, moving from the current rate of 1:7.0 to a range of 1:6.6-6.7 [1] Exchange Rate Management - The report emphasizes the need for macro-prudential regulation of foreign exchange to ensure stable cross-border capital flows and to monitor and mitigate systemic financial risks [1] - It advises against using foreign exchange market interventions or window guidance to counteract appreciation driven by fundamentals, suggesting a greater reliance on market supply and demand to determine exchange rates [1]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% based on constant prices. Quarterly growth rates are 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policies have played a crucial role in achieving the economic growth target for 2025, characterized by a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] - Total fiscal expenditure from January to November 2025 is approximately 35 trillion yuan, with general budget expenditure around 24.9 trillion yuan (up 1.4% year-on-year) and fund expenditure about 9.2 trillion yuan (up 13.7% year-on-year). Total fiscal expenditure for the year is expected to exceed 40 trillion yuan [2] - The social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% year-on-year growth, with combined fiscal and financial support reaching approximately 75 to 80 trillion yuan, providing strong support for macroeconomic stability, employment, income, and social welfare [2] Structural Adjustments - Significant support for structural adjustments and key sectors has been noted, with the top ten fiscal expenditure categories closely related to people's livelihoods. Social security spending leads at over 4 trillion yuan, followed by education at 3.8 trillion yuan and healthcare at 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly, outpacing overall investment and economic growth, with fiscal spending in technology reaching 889.2 billion yuan (up 7.9%) [2] Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Macroeconomic policies have been vital in reducing costs and improving efficiency, with export tax rebates reaching 1.9 trillion yuan (up 5.6%) from January to November 2025. The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to a historical low of 1.42% [4] - Since 2018, interest rate cuts have occurred over ten times, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency improvements that support macroeconomic stability [4] Focus on Livelihood and Risk Management - Increasing emphasis on livelihood protection within macroeconomic policies has been observed [4] - Risk prevention and expectation management have become increasingly important, with the People's Bank of China introducing structural monetary policy tools to support capital markets, totaling 800 billion yuan, which significantly boosts market confidence [4] - Continued proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to persist into 2026, potentially with even stronger measures [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、力拓（Rio Tinto）发布四季度产销报告：四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石产量为 8970 | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 偏多 | 万吨，环比增加 6.66%，同比增加 3.70%。四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石发运量为 9130 | | | | | 万吨，环比增加 8.30%，同比增加 6.53%。 | | | | | 3、 1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、财政部有关负责人介绍，2026 年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要 | | | | | 水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black (coking coal and coke) sector is "oscillating weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The double - coking (coking coal and coke) market is expected to be in a short - term weak trend. The market accelerated its decline yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1124.0, a 4.3% decline compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1673.5, a 2.76% decline compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1113.0, a 0.98% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1671.0, a 0.15% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and take promoting price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice on measures to support urban renewal, proposing a transitional policy for using existing land and real estate resources to develop supported industries without changing the land - use subject and planning conditions within a certain period [1] - As of the time of the report, the explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory in Inner Mongolia has caused 9 deaths, and the status of 1 missing person is being further confirmed [1] - On January 20, the online auction price of coking coal in the Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1598 yuan/ton, with a transaction volume of 30,000 tons, a 19 - yuan increase compared to January 13 [1] Market Logic - The double - coking market accelerated its decline yesterday. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] Trading Strategy - The double - coking market accelerated its decline before the close of the day session yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. Coking coal is expected to show a short - term weak trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China aims to continuously promote a reasonable recovery of prices through a combination of policies, emphasizing the importance of price stability for both economic operation and residents' livelihoods [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Economic Policy - The NDRC plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, making the promotion of reasonable price recovery a key consideration in monetary policy [1]. - There is an observed upward trend in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating signs of economic recovery [1]. Structural Policy - The NDRC will implement special actions to boost consumption and develop plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [2]. - Policies will be optimized to promote large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods, alongside advancing major national strategies and key area safety capabilities [2]. - Efforts will be made to address "involution" competition and establish a unified national market construction regulation to enhance market efficiency [2]. Reform Policy - The NDRC aims to further clarify price relationships to promote efficient resource allocation and ensure stable supply [2]. - Continuous efforts will be made to stabilize prices and supply of essential goods, ensuring sufficient quantity and stable prices to support basic livelihoods [2].