Group 1 - The latest LPR quotes remain unchanged, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations after a previous decrease in May [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the stability in LPR is due to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, indicating limited room for further declines in LPR [1][2] - The overall economic environment shows slight improvements in both supply and demand, with consumer demand being a highlight, suggesting that the necessity for further policy easing is low [2][3] Group 2 - Current loan rates for enterprises and personal housing are at historical lows, with average rates around 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, down approximately 50 and 55 basis points year-on-year [3] - The external economic landscape, particularly the U.S. monetary policy, is influencing the decision to maintain LPR levels, as rapid decreases could widen the interest rate differential with the U.S. and increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3][4] - Future strategies to lower overall financing costs should focus on reducing non-interest costs, such as collateral and intermediary service fees, rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy, particularly through the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, to address the uncertainties arising from the changing external environment and to ensure high-quality economic development [1]. PART.01: Reasons for Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Global economic growth is slowing, with increased uncertainty due to rising trade protectionism. The IMF has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the WTO has cut the global trade growth forecast from 3.2% to 1.7% [2]. - The slowdown in global trade is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's tariff and trade policies, which have raised trade costs and inflation pressures, leading to reduced investment and economic growth [2]. - China's economy is highly integrated into the global market, with a trade dependence of 72.4% as of April 2025, and external shocks from global trade slowdowns are impacting China's foreign trade growth [2]. PART.02: Understanding Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Monetary policy focuses on total demand management and counter-cyclical adjustments. It aims to restore balance between total demand and supply, ensuring price stability and economic growth [6]. - Moderately loose monetary policy involves dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic and financial market changes, utilizing various tools to lower financing costs and stimulate demand [7]. - The policy framework includes five stances: loose, moderately loose, stable, moderately tight, and tight, with adjustments made according to economic conditions [8]. PART.03: Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - The implementation of moderately loose monetary policy has shown effectiveness in promoting economic growth and managing total demand [10]. - Key measures include lowering policy interest rates and maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, with significant reductions in loan rates for enterprises and individuals [11]. - The People's Bank of China has introduced ten monetary policy measures to enhance support for the real economy, focusing on total, price, and structural aspects to ensure effective policy transmission and support for key sectors [12][13].

2025.06. 19 本文字数：1334，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 安卓 具体来看，在网点定期存款方面，数据显示，5月，银行整存整取存款3个月期平均利率为 1.004%，6个月期为1.212%，1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期分别为1.339%、1.428%、 1.711%、1.573%。 从不同类型银行来看，5月份，国有银行结构性存款平均期限为65天，较上月缩短4天，平均预期最 高收益率为2.18%，环比下降15BP；股份制银行结构性存款平均期限为86天，较上月增加3天，平 均预期最高收益率为2.23%，环比下降6BP；城商行结构性存款平均期限为108天，较上个月缩短 17天，平均预期最高收益率为2.25%，环比下降2BP；外资银行结构性存款平均期限为405天，较 上个月增加83天，平均预期最高收益率为4.35%，环比下降16BP。 从不同挂钩标的来看，当月，挂钩汇率的结构性存款平均预期中间收益率为2.01%，环比上涨 5BP，平均预期最高收益率为2.12%，环比下降6BP；挂钩黄金的结构性存款平均预期中间收益率 为1.80%，环比下降9BP，平均预期最高收益率为2.07%，环比下降10BP ...

3年期平均利率为1.711%，5年期平均利率为1.573%。 和上月相比，大额存单各期限平均利率均下降，3个月期、6个月期、1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期分别下降10.24BP、11.26BP、12.25BP、 13.75BP、8.81BP和28.33BP。对比不同期限来看，5年期大额存单利率"超速"下滑。 在结构性存款方面，监测的数据显示，5月，人民币结构性存款平均期限为90天，较上月持平，较去年同期缩短12天；平均预期中间收益率 为1.85%，环比下降6BP；平均预期最高收益率为2.25%，环比下降10BP。 从不同类型银行来看，5月份，国有银行结构性存款平均期限为65天，较上月缩短4天，平均预期最高收益率为2.18%，环比下降15BP；股 份制银行结构性存款平均期限为86天，较上月增加3天，平均预期最高收益率为2.23%，环比下降6BP；城商行结构性存款平均期限为108 天，较上个月缩短17天，平均预期最高收益率为2.25%，环比下降2BP；外资银行结构性存款平均期限为405天，较上个月增加83天，平均 预期最高收益率为4.35%，环比下降16BP。 从不同挂钩标的来看，当月，挂钩汇率的结构性存款平均预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that it's not the right time to over - allocate commodities, and patience is needed. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.6 - 1.8%, and Treasury bond futures should be bought on dips. The stock index has a ceiling and a floor [2][3]. - In 2025, the US economy faces "stagflation" or "recession" risks, while China is on a long "re - inflation" path. Based on these economic judgments, there are corresponding trading opportunities and asset - allocation suggestions in the second half of 2025 [8][25][37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the First Half of 2025 - **Differentiation of Sino - US Commodities**: In the first half of 2025, US commodities first rose and then fell, while Chinese commodities were weak. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy and the trend of rising initial jobless claims and slowing new employment in the US affected commodity prices. The US had obvious inventory - replenishing imports, with imports from January to March reaching $1.2 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 23%, and retail and food service sales from January to March at $2.1 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Domestically, from March to April, the sales of commercial housing weakened, and the domestic demand was still weak. In May, China's PPI was - 3.3% and continued to decline. Exports were supported by the rush - to - export factor, but overall, under the high - interest - rate environment of the Fed, prices were under pressure [5][6]. 2. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 2.1 The US: Risk of Economic "Soft Landing" to "Recession" - **Risk of "Stagflation" or "Recession"**: The US government's debt support for residents' income and consumption is difficult to sustain. The US government faces the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits (the fiscal deficit/GDP in 2024 - 25 was still as high as 6.8%). In April 2025, the US fiscal expenditure was $591.8 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $7.09 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%; the fiscal revenue was $850.2 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $5.06 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The annual deficit in April 2025 was $2.03 trillion, accounting for 6.8% of the US GDP in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was - 0.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, indicating an obvious economic slowdown. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will be between 1.6% - 2.3%, depending on the Fed's interest - rate cut speed and the realization of stable tax - cut policy expectations. Trump's policies have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy [19]. - **High Inflation and Interest - Rate Expectations**: Inflation may remain above the 2% target, forcing the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate above 3.5%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the US federal funds rate will drop to 3.75%, and the first interest - rate cut in the second half of 2025 is expected to be in October [23]. 2.2 China: A Long "Re - inflation" Road - **Difficulty in PPI Recovery**: In May 2025, China's PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, and CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year. Under the background of de - globalization and the reconstruction of the Chinese real - estate model, the path for China's PPI to turn positive is long and difficult. The slow recovery of commercial housing sales and M1, as well as the decline in US imports, will lead to a slow recovery of China's PPI [25]. - **Challenges in Inflation Upturn**: China's inflation upturn faces challenges, including the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, the difficulty of the real - estate price recovery, and over - capacity in some industries. To get out of deflation, China can observe three groups of variables: the continuous expansion of base money and stock money, the continuous resilience of external demand exports, and the maintenance of an "active fiscal policy" [25][31][33]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance and strengthen the amplitude of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. It is expected that in 2025, China's policy interest rate will be cut by 30 - 40BP in two installments, and the deposit - reserve ratio will be cut by 50 - 100BP in two installments [36]. 3. Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - **US Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the resilience of the US economy will decline, consumption and imports will fall, and private investment will be under pressure. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with a risk of decline; the US dollar will oscillate with a risk of further weakening; gold can still be bought on dips, but trading opportunities are not obvious. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield will oscillate between 3.8% - 4.5% and is expected to decline; the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 and tend to decline [37][38]. - **China's Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: The active fiscal policy will support the Chinese economy, and the currency will be further loosened. It is expected that inflation will still be under pressure in the second half of 2025. There is still an expectation of a 30 - 40BP interest - rate cut in the monetary - policy end. With the support of liquidity, the A - share market will maintain active trading, and the yield of Treasury bonds will further decline. Before the policy supports the improvement of the fundamentals, commodity prices will still be suppressed by insufficient demand. The CSI 300 index is expected to be between 3400 - 4400 points; the yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to be between 1.6 - 1.8%; commodities are expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of 2025, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities in the third quarter of 2025 [37][38][39].

据初步统计，前5个月，我国社会融资规模增量累计为18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元，其中， 对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加10.38万亿元，同比多1123亿元。截至2025年5月末，我国社会融资规 模存量为426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为262.86万亿元，同 比增长7%。 在存款方面，前5个月，我国人民币存款增加14.73万亿元。其中，住户存款增加8.3万亿元，财政性存款 增加2.07万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加3.07万亿元。截至5月末，本外币存款余额324.08万亿元， 同比增长8.3%，人民币存款余额316.96万亿元，同比增长8.1%。 在货币供应量方面，截至5月末，我国广义货币余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%；狭义货币余额 108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3%；流通中货币余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。前5个月净投放现金 3064亿元。 中国人民银行数据显示：今年前5月，我国人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。截至5月末，本外币贷款余额 270.2万亿元，同比增长6.7%，人民币贷款余额266.32万亿元，同比增长7.1%。 ...

消费旺，则市场兴、经济活。近年来，随着"逛临沂商城 赶中国大集""点靓沂河 激活蒙山"等金字招牌 火爆出圈，山东省临沂市消费市场迎来空前的发展机遇。中国人民银行临沂市分行聚焦商城、文旅、汽 车、直播电商、电商平台、家居等特色消费领域，围绕供需两端，引导银行机构创新金融产品，加大消 费金融供给力度，为提振消费赋能加力。截至一季度末，全市消费贷款余额达3388.9亿元，占全部贷款 比重达29.9%。 优化供给 解决急难愁盼的融资难事 今年以来，中国人民银行临沂市分行积极融入电商、文旅、汽车、养老等重点消费领域，加快构建"政 策快协同、场景深融合、金融强赋能"三位一体服务体系。工商银行临沂分行推广"惠农e贷""融e贷"等 信贷产品，深耕城乡消费客群，一季度，发放消费贷款38.6亿元；农业银行临沂分行聚焦文旅领域，探 索"红色文旅+"金融服务模式，创推"红色易贷"系列产品，累计发放贷款12.6亿元；中国银行临沂分行 围绕充电桩项目建设核定授信4.4亿元，放款1.4亿元，形成了"消费需求在哪里，金融供给就跟进到哪 里"的良好局面。 组合发力 惠及衣食住行的生活小事 在今年4月召开的金融促消费新闻发布会上，中国人民银行临 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China has lowered the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.0% and the five-year LPR to 3.5%, marking the first decrease in 2023, which is expected to reduce financing costs for businesses and households [2][3][4] - A series of financial policies have been introduced to stabilize the market and promote economic growth, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates for various loans [4][5] - The measures aim to boost credit demand, enhance consumer spending, and support key sectors such as technology innovation and real estate [6][7][8] Financial Policy Measures - The recent interest rate cuts are part of a broader financial policy package that includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy rates [4][6] - The central bank has increased the re-lending quota for technology innovation and transformation from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan, indicating a strong focus on supporting technological advancements [7] - The financial policies are designed to ensure liquidity in the market and maintain stability in the financial system, with a particular emphasis on consumer spending and real estate financing [8][9] Market Impact - The reduction in LPR is expected to stimulate credit demand, thereby unlocking investment potential for businesses and increasing consumer spending [3][4] - Analysts believe that the financial measures will enhance market confidence and support stock market performance, with positive implications for regional markets influenced by Chinese demand [4][5] - The overall trade performance of China remains resilient, with a reported 2.4% year-on-year increase in total trade value from January to April 2023, indicating effective policy support for external trade [8][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - In June, banks face certain liability - side pressure, but it is generally controllable. While the pressure to renew certificates of deposit (CDs) increases, non - banking institutions have a need for re - allocation. With a relatively loose funding environment, the room for CD price hikes is limited. A 1Y CD with a yield above 1.7% already has investment value, and 1.75% may be the upper - limit. It is advisable to observe the CD prices in the second week of June and make allocations in the middle and late June [2][29] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Situation of CD Maturity in June - The CD maturity scale in June soared to 4.17 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, increasing the pressure to renew CDs. A new round of deposit rate cuts started on May 20, and theoretically, deposit migration will further increase the banks' liability - side pressure, leading to market concerns about subsequent CD rates [2][6] - Medium - and short - term CDs have a large maturity volume, with 3M CDs having the largest maturity scale. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks all have a maturity volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Over half of the large - scale banks' maturing CDs are 3M, joint - stock banks have more 1Y maturing CDs, and city commercial banks have more 6M maturing CDs [6] Relationship between CD Issuance, Maturity, Net Financing, and CD Rates - Historically, there is a good positive correlation between CD issuance and maturity. The relationship between net financing and CD rates is weak, while the relationship between maturity/issuance and CD rates has a certain positive correlation, but not every increase in maturity and issuance leads to a significant rise in CD rates [2][14] Impact of Deposit Migration on CD Rates - There have been four rounds of deposit migration since 2024. Except for April 2024, large - scale banks' deposit levels returned to the pre - migration state within one month after the other three rounds of deposit migration, and these four rounds did not cause a significant increase in CD rates, indicating that simply considering the impact of deposit migration on banks' liability - side is one - sided [2][23] Analysis of Banks' Funding Sources - Currently in a new round of deposit rate cuts, large - scale banks' deposit migration is still obvious in the short term, increasing the liability - side pressure to some extent. However, there are positive signals: as of June 4, the banks' net lending balance has recovered to about 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the annual low of about 1.5 trillion yuan; the central bank has shown obvious care for the funding environment after a series of financial policies, and the funding environment is expected to remain relatively loose in June; the net withdrawal of repurchase agreements in June may also indicate that the banks' liability - side pressure is controllable [2][24] Analysis of Banks' Funding Utilization - In terms of credit lending, the bill rates were stable in May, indicating good credit demand. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument is likely to be launched in June, and several major financial policies will be announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to stimulate credit in June. In terms of bond investment, the government bond issuance in June is expected to be 2.58 - 2.82 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.22 - 1.46 trillion yuan. Although the government bond payment intensity remains high, the impact is controllable due to the central bank's liquidity support and June being a large fiscal expenditure month [2][25]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1] - The interbank market showed slight fluctuations in repo rates, with overnight rates around 1.4% and a rise in rates for overnight borrowing against credit bonds to 1.6% [3] - The central bank's liquidity support remains strong, with no liquidity gap expected in June, although fluctuations may occur due to fiscal spending at month-end [3] Interest Rate Adjustments - The latest LPR was set at 3% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for loans over 5 years, marking a decrease of 10 basis points, the first reduction since October of the previous year [5] - Major state-owned banks have begun to lower deposit rates, with reductions ranging from 5 to 25 basis points, and some large-denomination deposit rates dropping by up to 35 basis points [5][6] - The recent interest rate cuts are seen as a continuation of the easing policy, with expectations that the next rate cut window may not occur until at least the third quarter [6] Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - The central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing for the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates [7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors such as technology innovation and foreign trade [7] - A recent monetary policy execution report highlighted the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth, while also addressing the balance of supply and demand in the economy [7]