Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides insights into various sectors within the equipment manufacturing industry, indicating potential areas of growth and decline [1]. Core Insights - The equipment manufacturing industry is experiencing mixed performance, with specific sectors like engineering machinery showing growth in exports, while others like photovoltaic cells are under pressure [2][3]. - The engineering machinery sector reported a trade value of $5.377 billion in April 2025, with exports reaching $5.152 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [3]. - The automotive sector saw a daily retail average of 61,000 vehicles in the fourth week of May, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase, suggesting a robust domestic market supported by promotional strategies [3]. - The photovoltaic sector is facing challenges, with a significant drop in production capacity and weak demand from downstream component manufacturers, leading to price pressures [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the indices for machinery equipment, electric equipment, and automotive sectors experienced declines of -0.43%, -2.44%, and -4.11% respectively, ranking them 21st, 30th, and 31st among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1][8]. - The automotive service sector showed a positive performance with a rise of 3.38%, while passenger cars and batteries faced declines of 9.48% and 4.28% respectively [9]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The top 100 real estate companies in China saw a total land acquisition amount of 405.19 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [19]. - The Jiangxi Nuclear Power's 100 MW wind power project achieved full capacity grid connection, marking a significant milestone in renewable energy supply [19]. - Companies like Maiwei and XCMG are actively engaging in strategic partnerships and funding initiatives to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [19].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed mild recovery in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.5 points to 49.5, slightly above the seasonal average. However, this increase is not strong considering the low base from April due to tariff impacts. The absolute value of 49.5 is only better than May 2019 and May 2023 in the past decade [1][7][8]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In May, the manufacturing sectors that improved can be categorized into three types: emerging manufacturing (computer communication electronics, electrical machinery), essential consumer agricultural products, and the petrochemical industry chain (petrochemical refining, chemicals, synthetic fibers, and plastics) [2][9]. - The macroeconomic clues behind these improvements include: the cancellation of high tariffs leading to better export orders, the continued effects of domestic "two new" policies, and demand growth from the AI industry. The sectors experiencing significant downturns are mainly in the construction chain and optional consumer goods [2][9]. - The electrical machinery sector is leading in terms of prosperity, with a PMI above 55, benefiting from rapid growth in new energy and new energy vehicles, as well as policy dividends from "two new" initiatives [3][11]. Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved prosperity in May. This is attributed to the rebound in external demand and domestic policy support [3][12]. - The biological industry remains the weakest, with a significant decline in export orders continuing from April [3][12]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction industry in May is characterized by "infrastructure improvement and real estate drag." Civil engineering construction saw a continuous improvement for two months, while the real estate chain showed weakness across all stages [4][15]. - The construction activity index decreased by 0.9 points to 51.0 in May, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [14][16]. Service Sector Performance - The service sector saw a slight improvement, with the PMI rising by 0.1 points to 50.2. Key drivers include travel-related sectors benefiting from the May Day holiday and a rebound in the water transport industry [6][17]. - The information technology service sector continues to perform well, driven by trends such as "AI+" and online consumption [6][17]. Summary of Key Insights - The "two new" policies are concentrated in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electrical machinery and computer electronics, which currently show high prosperity [5][6]. - The new generation information technology sector leads in emerging industries, while the service sector's IT services maintain a leading position [5][6]. - External uncertainties continue to impact sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology, as indicated by their performance data [5][6]. - The construction sector is experiencing a rise in prosperity due to accelerated issuance of special bonds and project implementations, although upstream material sectors remain under pressure due to real estate slowdowns [5][6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the improvement in profits for private enterprises compared to state-owned enterprises, with private enterprise profits increasing by 4.3% year-on-year, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 4.4% [4][9] - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed to 2.6% year-on-year in April, while profit total increased by 0.4% to 3.0%, indicating a continued recovery trend since the beginning of the year [3][9] - The report discusses the impact of the "Two New" policies, which have benefitted private enterprises more significantly due to their distribution in the mid and downstream sectors [4][9] Industry Analysis - The electronics sector is experiencing innovation with the launch of the Doubao app's video call feature, which enhances user interaction through visual recognition and AI capabilities [5][14] - The report anticipates the emergence of new AI hardware, such as AI glasses and companions, which could revolutionize user interaction with AI technology [15][17] - The hardware analysis emphasizes the importance of visual perception and acoustic capabilities in the development of new AI devices, highlighting the need for advanced camera and signal processing technologies [16][17]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first four months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 21,170.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[3] - The profit growth rate accelerated by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first three months of 2025[3] - In April 2025, profits increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from March 2025[3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies have significantly contributed to the recovery of industrial profits, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors[4] - Specialized equipment and general equipment industries saw profit growth of 13.2% and 11.7% respectively, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 9.0%, surpassing the average industrial growth rate by 7.6 percentage points[6] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating persistent low prices that hinder profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% in the first four months of 2025, showing a slight recovery but still with significant room for improvement[5] - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[8] Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The U.S. tariff war is expected to have a controllable impact on overall industrial profits, with an estimated profit loss of CNY 200 billion, accounting for 2.7% of total industrial profits in 2024[8] - Industries with high export exposure to the U.S., such as textiles and footwear, are facing significant pressure, with some experiencing negative growth[8]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises increased by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.8% in the previous period[2] - Cumulative operating revenue for the same period rose by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.4% previously[2] - In April, the monthly revenue growth rate was approximately 2.6%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: Profit Analysis - April's total profit increased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year, continuing the improvement trend observed since the beginning of the year[3] - Private enterprises saw a profit increase of 4.3%, improving by 4.6 percentage points, while state-owned enterprises experienced a profit decline of 4.4%, worsening by 3.0 percentage points[3] - The contribution to April's profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin was +6.0, -2.8, and -0.1 percentage points, respectively[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - In April, the profit share of upstream mining, midstream equipment, downstream consumption, and public utilities was 29.4%, 38.8%, 21%, and 10.8%, respectively[4] - Upstream profit growth declined by 2.2 percentage points to -9.6%, primarily due to reduced profits in non-ferrous metals and the petrochemical sector[4] - Midstream sectors benefited from policy support, with profit growth improving by 8.4% in computer and communication electronics, and 7.9% in electrical machinery[4] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - Nominal inventory decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, while actual inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.6%[5] - The inventory growth rate remains higher than the revenue growth rate, indicating ongoing inventory pressure[5] - Future uncertainties in exports and potential challenges in various sectors may impact corporate profitability, necessitating attention to new fiscal policies and reserve measures[5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 27 日 工业利润: 新动能引领突出，应对关税战扰动 ——2025 年 1-4 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润延续修复态势， "两新"政策持续发力，新动能行业拉动 工业利润增速作用增强，装备制造业、高技术制造业对利润增长贡献较为显著，积极 应对关税战扰动（部分轻工业承压负增长）。但工业品价格中枢仍处低位，以价换量特 征仍较为显著，工业企业利润增速在价格方面仍有较大改善空间。我们认为，工业企 业利润增速修复的持续性需要有效需求持续助力，同时推动工业品价格合理回升。美 国关税战对工业利润或有所冲击，但在总量层面或较为可控，结构上部分轻工业压力 较大，未来或主要依靠新动能行业持续发力应对。 ❑ "两新"政策持续助力盈利修复，价格偏低是主要拖累 2025 年 1-4 月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%， 利润增速较 1-3 月加快 0.6 个百分点。其中 4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润 同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分 ...

Core Insights - The profit of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 21,170.2 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, the highest cumulative growth rate in nearly eight months [1][16][21] - In April alone, the profit of these enterprises grew by 3.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery trend [1][16] - The total operating revenue for these enterprises in the first four months was 43.44 trillion yuan, setting a historical record for the same period [1][4] Economic Environment - The V-shaped rebound in profit growth suggests a fundamental change in the operating environment for industrial enterprises, driven by a series of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving external conditions [1][18] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's new round of interest rate cuts since September has also contributed to increased demand from European and American consumers, positively impacting China's exports [1][18] Industry Performance - Among 41 major industrial categories, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with a growth rate of nearly 60% [17] - The agricultural and food processing industry saw a profit increase of 45.6%, while the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry grew by 24.5% [17] - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing, demonstrated robust profit growth, with 7 out of 8 sub-sectors achieving double-digit growth [18][20] Company Performance - State-owned enterprises reported negative growth in both revenue and profit, while foreign-invested and private enterprises showed positive performance, with private enterprises' profit increasing by 14.1% [19] - The operating profit margin for enterprises increased to 4.87%, reflecting seasonal fluctuations and a higher growth rate compared to the previous year [19] Future Outlook - The combination of improved external demand and domestic policy support is expected to sustain the growth of industrial profits, with ongoing initiatives likely to enhance internal demand [20][21] - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is anticipated to lead to a new cycle of prosperity, with expectations for continued profit growth in the future [21]

宏观动态报告 F券 CG 利润小幅改善,库存继续去化 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润分析 分析师 张迪 网：zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 研究助理:铁传奥 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2025 年 5 月 27 日 5 月 27 日国家统计局发布：1—4 月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 ● 21170.2 亿元,同比增长 1.4%(前值 0.8%）; 实现营业收入 43.44 万亿元, 同比增长 3.2%（前值 3.4%）。3 月利润当月同比 3.0%（前值 2.6%）。工业 企业利润连续两个月正增走扩。 利润率改善对利润增速加快有较大贡献。从量、价、利润率三要素模型来看, o 贡献最多的还是量,工业增加值 1-4 月实现同比 6.4%的强劲增长,单月同比 上涨 6.1%,虽然 4 月工业增加值环比较 3 月有所下滑,但仍在"三抢"的带 动下有较高增速。4月转口贸易"抢出口"和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy continues to show effects, with the specialized equipment industry experiencing a profit increase of 13.2% year-on-year in the first four months of the year [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The implementation of ultra-long-term special bond funds has effectively supported the "Two New" policy, leading to significant growth in specialized and general equipment industries [1] - The specialized equipment and general equipment industries' profits increased by 13.2% and 11.7% respectively, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point increase in industrial profits above designated size [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The electronic and electrical machinery specialized equipment manufacturing sector saw a remarkable profit growth of 69.8% [1] - The general component manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 24.7% [1] - The mining, metallurgy, and construction specialized equipment manufacturing sector reported a profit growth of 18.3% [1] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector - The effects of the consumption upgrade policy are evident, with significant profit increases in various consumer goods sectors [1] - The manufacturing of specialized parts for household electrical appliances, kitchen appliances, and non-electric household appliances saw profit growths of 17.2%, 17.1%, and 15.1% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is crucial for boosting consumption, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening the domestic circulation, showing significant multiplier effects since its full implementation in 2024 [1][22]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Behavior - The "Two New" policy has effectively enhanced consumer vitality, with reports of a 50% increase in foot traffic and a 60% rise in sales at a JD Super Experience Store in Chongqing compared to the previous year [3]. - High-tech and energy-efficient products are increasingly favored, with AI smart products seeing a threefold increase in sales in Henan province due to government subsidies [5][13]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has made it easier for consumers to upgrade their appliances, with over 55 million units of home appliances and 41 million digital products sold under this initiative [13]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Investment - In the first four months, investment in equipment and tools rose by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth, with related sectors like computer manufacturing and consumer goods seeing significant increases [15]. - The upgrade of production lines in companies like Yili and Zhejiang Chaowei has improved production efficiency and reduced labor costs, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industry [17][20]. - The "Two New" policy is seen as a driver for economic transformation, creating a closed loop of investment, production, and consumption, which is essential for long-term competitiveness [22].