2025年6月5日晚，一通横跨太平洋的电话再次牵动全球的神经。美国总统特朗普在北京的电话中与中方进行了一场备受关注的对话。通话结束后，特朗普在 社交媒体上特别强调："美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习。"这句话看似普通，但在当前中美关系的背景下，却充满了深意，犹如一面白旗，宣告了美国此前对 中国科技人才围堵政策的彻底破产，同时暴露出特朗普政府在内外困境中不得不低头的尴尬局面。此通电话并非偶然寒暄，而是美国战略焦虑与中国战略定 力碰撞的必然结果。它标志着特朗普政府自5月12日中美在日内瓦达成暂时妥协后，始终未能履行承诺，反而在不断背信弃义中最终遭遇了碰壁。这一切的 背后，既有美国经济隐忧与内部撕裂的困境，也有中国凭借实力与智慧牢牢掌控着中美关系航向的鲜明印证。 一、日内瓦协议的"虚伪承诺"与美国的战略失信 回顾那一令人期待的"日内瓦时刻"，2025年5月12日，中美在瑞士经过艰难谈判后发布了《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。这份声明被双方称为"实质性进 展"，其核心内容是大幅度降低互相加征的惩罚性关税：美方取消了91%的对华加征关税，中方也相应取消了91%的反制关税；同时，美方暂停了34%的"对 等关税"中的24%（为期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the former U.S. Ambassador to China, Burns, criticized the previous U.S. approach to China, particularly under Trump, highlighting that it underestimated China's resilience and capabilities [1][3] - Burns pointed out that the U.S. trade policies, especially tariffs, backfired, harming American businesses and supply chains while allowing Chinese companies to advance technologically and in market presence [1][3] - He emphasized that the U.S. alienated its allies, such as South Korea, Japan, and Europe, which could have collectively exerted more pressure on China if united [1][3] Group 2 - Burns identified three major mistakes in U.S. policy towards China: underestimating China's endurance, offending allies, and being overly complacent, which led to missed opportunities [3][5] - He noted that China's recovery post-pandemic has been rapid, with significant upgrades in manufacturing and increased foreign investments, suggesting that U.S. politicians need to adapt their views to avoid further disadvantages [3][5] - The interview serves as a wake-up call for both the U.S. and China, indicating that the U.S. must reassess its strategies and cannot rely on outdated methods to engage with China [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the gold price showed a trend of rising first and then falling. COMEX gold lost the $3,400 mark, and SHFE gold fell below the 780 yuan mark. The post - festival increase was mainly due to the US raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, while the subsequent decline was due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the resilience of the US employment [4][29]. - Silver rose significantly last week, breaking through the high in May 2024, and the gold - silver ratio declined sharply. In the short - term, silver's rise was based on the high gold - silver ratio and the inflow of funds due to the weakness of gold. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline [4][29]. - In the medium - to - short - term, the gold price is largely dominated by macro - economic data and news. The US policy's inconsistency may reduce the financial market's sensitivity to it. In the context of Sino - US relations easing and the US economy showing resilience, the gold price is expected to continue its weak operation, and attention can be paid to the support at the $3,300 mark of COMEX gold [4][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: No detailed description provided, only accompanied by a graph of the linkage between the dollar index and COMEX gold [9]. - **Indicator Changes**: From May 30th to June 6th, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, COMEX silver rose 9.24%, SHFE gold futures rose 1.48%, SHFE silver futures rose 7.69%, the dollar index fell 0.24%, the dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.23%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield rose 0.13, the S&P 500 rose 1.50%, and WTI crude oil rose 6.55%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 7.96%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 5.76%. SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Gold ETF also had certain increases [10]. 3.2 Easing of Sino - US Relations - The decline in the gold price last week was mainly due to the easing of Sino - US relations. First, the leaders of the two countries had a phone call, and then the two sides were expected to hold the first meeting of the economic and trade consultation mechanism in the UK, which led to a decrease in market risk - aversion demand and a significant decline in the gold price [12]. - In terms of trade policy, on June 5th, the leaders of the two countries had a phone call, expressing the importance of Sino - US relations. On June 7th, it was announced that from June 8th to 13th, China's vice - premier would visit the UK and hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [13]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on June 3rd, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was 12,895 contracts, the short - position change was - 826 contracts, and the net long - position change was 13,721 contracts. Since February, the net long - position of COMEX gold has continued to decline, but since late May, the non - commercial net long - position has continued to rise [18][19]. - In the first quarter, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, but the increase rate slowed down in April. Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. Last week, silver rose sharply, with corresponding ETFs increasing their positions significantly, showing a combination of volume and price increases. It is expected to maintain its strength [22][23]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also fallen from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious - metal attributes and short - term catch - up growth. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to operate weakly [26]. 3.4 Conclusion - The gold price trend and influencing factors are the same as the core viewpoints. The silver price and gold - silver ratio situation are also consistent with the core viewpoints. In the medium - to - short - term, the gold price is affected by macro - economic data and news. The inconsistency of US policies may reduce market sensitivity. In the context of Sino - US relations easing and the US economy showing resilience, the gold price is expected to continue its weak operation, and attention can be paid to the support at the $3,300 mark of COMEX gold [4][29]. - From June 8th to 13th, China's vice - premier will visit the UK and hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US. Attention can be continuously paid to the meeting. The previous Geneva meeting released positive signals, putting significant short - term pressure on the gold price [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the relationship between China and the U.S., as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent improvement in U.S.-China relations, indicated by the June 5 phone call between the leaders, suggests a potential easing of trade tensions, which could stabilize global markets and reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict, while currently limited, could lead to increased demand for gold if the situation escalates. However, the current restraint from both sides indicates limited immediate impact on gold prices [4]. Group 2: Current and Future Price Predictions - Current gold prices are approximately 830 yuan per gram, which is considered a high point [6]. - It is anticipated that gold prices may fluctuate between 750 and 780 yuan per gram in the short term, with a potential drop to around 680 yuan if substantial progress is made in U.S.-China relations [7]. - The likelihood of gold prices falling below 650 yuan is minimal due to the absence of significant interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Long-term gold price trends will be influenced by global inflation, changes in monetary policy, and fiscal policies across countries, leading to potential volatility [7]. - While gold can be a part of an investment strategy, it is advised to diversify investments rather than concentrating solely on gold due to inherent market risks [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significance of the recent phone call between Chinese leaders and U.S. President Trump, highlighting the delicate state of U.S.-China relations and the conditions for Trump's potential visit to China [1][3][5] - The phone call occurred at a critical moment, with ongoing tensions between the two nations, including U.S. pressure tactics such as AI chip supply restrictions and technology blockades [3][5] - The initiative for the call appeared to be with China, showcasing their diplomatic strategy and control over the negotiation process [3][5][7] Group 2 - The call signals a potential agenda for Trump's visit to China, contingent upon fulfilling certain agreements made between the two countries [5][9] - Trump's domestic challenges, including a declining manufacturing PMI index, have created pressure for him to seek dialogue with China as a means to alleviate economic concerns [5][7] - The future of U.S.-China relations may hinge on continued dialogue and cooperation, with the possibility of Trump needing to retract some of his confrontational policies to facilitate his visit [7][9]

Group 1 - The 90-minute phone call between China and US President Trump marks a significant shift in the complex US-China relationship, drawing global attention [1][3] - Trump's administration has previously implemented a series of tough measures against China, including raising tariffs to a high of 145%, which has severely impacted bilateral trade [1][3] - The US consumer price index (CPI) surged to 8.5% in April, leading to widespread domestic dissatisfaction and increasing political pressure from agricultural states affected by China's countermeasures [3] Group 2 - China emphasized the importance of adhering to the Geneva consensus on trade, proposing to reduce tariffs from 140% to a range of 10%-45% [3] - The phone call addressed sensitive issues such as Taiwan, with China urging the US to handle the situation carefully, while Trump reaffirmed the commitment to the One China policy [5] - The discussion included the critical issue of rare earth exports, with China controlling exports of seven types of heavy rare earths, which has significant implications for the US military and manufacturing sectors [5][7] Group 3 - The topic of Chinese students studying in the US was also highlighted, with Trump expressing a welcoming stance towards Chinese students, recognizing their economic contribution to the US education sector [7] - The potential for future negotiations between the economic teams of both countries was mentioned, with hopes for improved relations if the US follows through on its commitments [7] - The overall significance of the call lies in its potential to either ease tensions or exacerbate them, depending on the subsequent actions taken by the US [7]

市场憧憬中美元首通电，港股大盘全周先跌后升，恒生指数全周上升 2.2%，收报 23,792 点。恒生科指全周上升 2.2%，收 报 5,286 点。恒指公司上周五季检生效，使大市成交金额增加至 2,356 亿港元，但全周日均成交也按周下跌 7.6%至 2,039 亿港元，显示大多投资者仍在观望中。港股通全周净流入 149 亿港元，风格继续偏好高分红。板块上，材料及医疗保健行 业分类指数上分别升大升 5.6%及 4.1%，前者受到黄金及铜有色股份带动，后者则受惠于市场对中国创新药 BD 交易的预 期。全球市场风险偏好上升有助于港股表现，但当前估值已大幅修复，AH 溢价指数偏低，整体大盘以偏震荡为主。由于 部分焦点板块升幅已较大，较易有获利了结的倾向，预计未来一周港股难有明确主线，更多以板块轮动为主。 中美元首上周通话，双方同意团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，尽快举行新一轮会谈。我们认为消息有助于纾缓中美双边紧 张气氛，减少不确定性，促进港股情绪进一步修复。不过，中美双方在关税税率、高端芯片的进口、市场改革、产业补 贴、芬太尼等多方面仍存在较多分歧，预计中美能够达成共识的进度较缓慢且反复。 上周个别年内升幅凌厉的"新消 ...

Group 1 - The new U.S. Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, took over in May and met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi within a month, contrasting with Burns' predecessor who waited over seven months for a similar meeting [1][3] - Wang Yi emphasized China's commitment to implementing the trade consensus reached in Geneva, highlighting a responsible attitude amidst the backdrop of a "truce" in tariffs [3][5] - Wang Yi criticized the U.S. for its recent negative actions, including sanctions against Chinese companies and restrictions on technology exports, which he claimed harm China's legitimate rights [3][5] Group 2 - The meeting between Wang Yi and the new ambassador reflects a significant shift in U.S.-China relations compared to the previous low point, indicating China's desire for open communication [6][9] - The U.S. administration, represented by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, has expressed a need for high-level talks, suggesting a complex attitude of wanting dialogue while maintaining pressure on China [5][9] - The future of U.S.-China relations will depend on the U.S. government's willingness to meet China's expectations and create necessary conditions for dialogue [9]

自特朗普宣布所谓的"对等关税"以来，中美关系就持续陷入僵局，日内瓦经贸会谈之后特朗普更是迅速变脸，出台了芯片管制、签证限制等一系列对华打压 政策，眼下中美摩擦已经不仅局限于贸易领域，对于中美关系的走向，各国都在屏息关注。 直到6月5日晚，中美元首终于迎来了"对等关税"以来的首次通话，特朗普还对华做出了3项重要承诺。而就在同一天，美国的先队人马也已经抵达北京，中 美双方进行了友好会谈。 通话期间，中方对5月的日内瓦经贸会谈予以高度评价，将其视作"以对话协商解决经贸问题的关键一步"。 这一定位极具分量，要知道，这场会谈是特朗普新一轮关税战后的首次正式谈判，当时双方不仅同意取消大部分已加征关税，更确立了"相互开放、持续沟 通"的协商原则，成果远超外界预期。 中方在通话里把话说得很明白，两国打交道，双方必须以平等姿态相待，认真考虑彼此的核心利益，最终目标是实现双赢的结果，期间还特别强调了中国重 信守诺的一贯立场，指出既然双方已经在日内瓦达成了协议，那就应该共同遵守。 在日内瓦协议之后，中方是严肃认真地履行了承诺的，但反观美方，其行动却与协议精神背道而驰，接连出台了一系列打压措施，包括限制芯片对华出口、 禁止销售关键的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that equal respect is the premise for Sino-U.S. interactions, and dialogue and cooperation are the correct choices [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reiterated its opposition to the U.S. 301 tariffs, labeling them as unilateral trade protection measures that violate multilateral trade rules [1][3] - The U.S. Trade Representative announced an extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation related to technology transfer from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Recent developments in Sino-U.S. relations highlight their complexity and importance, with significant events including meetings between officials and actions undermining previous agreements [3][4] - The U.S. has shifted its stance towards China, viewing it as a "global competitor" and implementing various hostile measures, particularly in trade and technology [4][6] - China is accelerating its technological self-sufficiency and domestic substitution strategies in response to U.S. pressures, achieving progress in areas like EDA and aviation engines [4][6] Group 3 - The relationship between the two countries is at a critical juncture, with the new U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, tasked with fostering communication and cooperation [6] - Both nations are urged to learn from history and work towards stabilizing their relationship, which is crucial for global peace and development [9] - Key recommendations for improving Sino-U.S. relations include adhering to established principles, returning to equal dialogue, abandoning Cold War mentalities, and enhancing people-to-people exchanges [10]