更多关注上市公司业绩和估值，也许居民财富逐步中长期配置资本市场和A股慢牛会同步实现。 继18日创下十年新高之后，8月19日，沪指早盘继续冲高，但午后反复走弱，三大指数翻绿。截至收 盘，沪指跌0.02%，深成指跌0.12%，创业板指跌0.17%，全天成交额2.64万亿元，较上个交易日缩量超 1700亿元，2982只个股上涨，2252只个股下跌。 "我相信这并非本轮行情的终极高点，走长牛不需要每天都涨停。"一位投资者在股吧中写道。 19日的回调似乎在意料之中，就在18日，已有多个财经博主、炒股大V在直播间里提醒回调风险，但有 趣的是，这些炒股"带头人"并不建议大家追高，与去年"924行情"启动之时"锣鼓喧天，鞭炮齐鸣"的态 度截然相反。 这也与部分散户目前的理性态度形成了共鸣。"稳定情绪，等待市场给出答案，不轻仓，也不满仓。"另 一位投资者称。 散户"畏高"踌躇中 自7月份以来，A股主要指数就开始了连续上涨，市场交投热度回升，资金表现活跃。以深市为例，据 第一财经统计，今年7月份，深市无论是成交笔数抑或成交金额均超过去年924行情以及今年2、3月份的 DeepSeek行情。 数据显示：7月份，深市股票成交笔数为1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in capital flow from bank deposits to the A-share market, driven by declining deposit rates and a strong stock market performance, leading to increased investor confidence and participation [2][3][5]. Group 1: "Deposit Migration" in Progress - Resident deposits have decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from banks to brokerage margin accounts [6]. - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, while the total resident deposits reached 160 trillion yuan, with nearly 75% being time deposits [6]. - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of time deposits between 2025 and 2026 is expected to release substantial funds into the stock market, enhancing liquidity [6]. Group 2: Surge in A-share Account Openings - In July, approximately 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, marking a year-on-year increase of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [7]. - The majority of new accounts were opened by individual investors, particularly younger generations (those born in the 1990s and 2000s), who are becoming a significant force in the market [7][8]. - Factors driving this surge include market performance, policy support, low interest rates, and innovations in trading channels that make it easier for young investors to participate [8]. Group 3: Transition from "Speculative Market" to "Allocation Market" - The reduction in household deposits and the increase in new accounts create a closed loop, with a significant portion of funds likely flowing into wealth management and then back into the stock market [9]. - The influx of new accounts suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, where retail investors may transition from speculative trading to long-term investment strategies, such as ETF investments [10]. - The presence of younger investors may increase market volatility in the short term but could also foster innovation and development in the capital market [10].

Wind数据显示，8月18日，上证指数盘中刷新2015年8月21日以来的最高点，创近十年新高。此外，A股 盘中市值总和突破100万亿元，创历史新高，这也是A股历史上首次突破100万亿元大关。截至8月19日 收盘，上证指数持续站上3700点。 据21世纪经济报道，记者观察到，随着行情升温以及7月金融统计数据出炉，近期多家券商研报关注"存 款搬家"议题。机构普遍认为，7月非银存款同比大幅改善，或表明居民存款加速"搬家"入市，这是近期 资本市场活跃的重要因素之一。 在A股持续爆发之际，上市公司分红力度持续增强。据中国上市公司协会消息，近期，中上协发布2025 年上市公司现金分红榜单。 中上协表示，2024年度上市公司分红意识不断增强，用"真金白银"积极回报投资者。数据显示，2024年 沪深A股上市公司以2.4万亿元"真金白银"回馈投资者，同比增长9%；9家"分红巨头"现金分红超500亿 元；133家公司近三年平均股息率超5%。 值得注意的是，2025年上市公司现金分红总额榜单中，首个由国内指数公司编制的A50指数——中证 A50指数半数成分股上榜。 Wind最新数据显示，在跟踪中证A50指数的众多ETF产品中，实施 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]

国家民委副主任段毅君8月18日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍，2020年到2024年，我国五个自治区的地区生产总值 总和从60129亿元增加到83766亿元。（新华财经） 1-7月，国家铁路累计发送货物23.31亿吨，日均装车18.33万车，同比分别增长3.3%、4.1%，为畅通国内国际双循环、保障国民经济平稳运行提供了有力支 撑。（新华财经） 李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议强调巩固拓展经济回升向好势头抓住关键着力点做强国内大循环持续激发消费潜力 A股市值首次突破100万亿元大关市场情绪明显提升居民财富向金融资产加速配置趋势明确 地缘局势最新动向：美乌欧领导人白宫会晤哈马斯确认已同意加沙地带停火提议 国务院总理李强8月18日主持召开国务院第九次全体会议，强调巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。李强强调，要进一步提 升宏观政策实施效能，深入评估政策实施情况，增强政策针对性有效性，及时回应市场关切，稳定市场预期。要抓住关键着力点做强国内大循环，以国内大 循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性。持续激发消费潜力，系统清理消费领域限制性措施，加 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights signs of deposits moving towards the stock market since May, driven by factors such as increased M1 growth and a shift in deposit trends [1] - M1 growth reached 5.6% year-on-year in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a trend of deposit activation [1] - There is a notable increase in the popularity of equity funds, with a slowdown in fixed-income wealth management products compared to last year [1][9] Group 2 - The capital market has become more active, with daily trading volumes in A-shares exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August [2] - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% in July compared to May, although it remains below the peak in October of the previous year [2] Group 3 - The article discusses the sources of deposits, including fiscal spending and international balance of payments, which have contributed to deposit creation [15] - The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation rose from 25% at the end of 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit decreased from 73% to 41% [15][23] Group 4 - Factors driving the movement of deposits to the stock market include improved risk appetite due to government stimulus policies and a recovery in stock market returns [31] - The average return on A-shares over the past 12 months has reached around 20%, prompting a shift in investment strategies [31][33] Group 5 - The potential for deposits to move into the stock market is estimated at 5-7 trillion yuan, based on excess savings, maturing deposits, and the activation of deposits [45][46] - The article notes that the actual movement of deposits will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external factors [45][46] Group 6 - The shift of deposits to the stock market is expected to benefit banks by expanding interest margins and improving the outlook for credit demand [48] - The article suggests that while the stock market's attractiveness may reduce the appeal of high-dividend yields, it remains attractive for long-term funds [48]

Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market saw significant gains, with multiple indices reaching new highs, including the Shanghai Composite Index, which hit a nearly 10-year high and closed above 3700 points. The market turnover exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, and the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.84%. The North Star 50 surged by 6.79%, setting a historical high [1]. Investment News - As of August 16, a total of 636 state-controlled listed companies disclosed merger and acquisition plans, totaling 1029 deals, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.29%. Among these, 32 were significant asset restructurings, up 68.42% year-on-year. This trend is attributed to favorable policies and accelerated professional integration of state assets, leading to a faster aggregation of quality resources towards listed companies [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that one new company was accepted for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board last week. As of August 17, there have been 179 new IPO applications this year [5]. - There is a noticeable "see-saw" effect in the stock and bond markets, with major interest rates on bonds rising by 2-6 basis points. The yield on 30-year government bonds reached a new high since March 18, while government bond futures fell across the board, with the main contract for 30-year bonds dropping by 1.33%, marking a new closing low since March 24. The yield on "two perpetual bonds" from banks also rose significantly by 8-11 basis points [5]. - Recent reports indicate that various funds, including public funds, private equity, insurance capital, and foreign investments, are actively entering the market, showing a clear trend of funds migrating from bank deposits to equity markets, alongside an increase in share buyback funds from listed companies [5]. Company Developments - China Shipbuilding announced that its stock will resume trading on August 19 [6]. - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's stock was voluntarily delisted from the exchange [6]. - Gree Electric's market director responded to claims that Xiaomi surpassed Gree in online sales in July, stating that Gree still maintains a leading position under the same query conditions [6]. - Leap Motor reported a revenue of 24.25 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 174%, with a gross margin of 14.1%, the highest since the company's establishment. The company also reported a strong cash position of 29.58 billion yuan and maintained positive operating and free cash flows [6]. - Jintian Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 59.294 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, and a net profit of 373 million yuan, up 203.86%. The company improved its operational efficiency through digital transformation, enhancing product gross margins and profitability [6]. - Huasheng Tiancheng reported normal production and operational activities, with no significant changes in its main business [6].

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes enhancing the effectiveness of macro policies to stabilize market expectations and stimulate consumption potential [2] - The A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high, closing above 3700 points, and the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan [2][5] - Various funds, including public and private equity, are actively entering the market, indicating a shift of funds from bank deposits to equity markets [6][5] Group 2 - The Chinese central bank's deputy governor highlights the growing importance of movable asset financing for small and medium enterprises [4] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has announced nine key tasks, including the development of a new payment scheme for medical services [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti-subsidy investigation period for dairy products imported from the EU until February 21, 2026 [4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges, with dealers reporting severe losses in new car sales and liquidity issues [9] - The Chinese smartphone market has seen a decline in shipments, with a 4.1% drop in Q2, ending a six-quarter growth streak [9] - The food cold chain logistics sector has shown growth, with a total demand of 1.92 billion tons in the first half of the year, up 4.35% year-on-year [10] Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index declining slightly while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased [6] - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a trend of increased retail investor participation, although not at the levels seen in previous surges [6] - The recent performance of various sectors indicates a potential for further investment opportunities as market sentiment improves [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high of 3745.94 points on August 18, driven by ample liquidity and increased participation from various investor groups [6][7][8]. Market Performance - The average return of active equity funds this year is approximately 19%, with 11 funds doubling their net value [10]. - The number of "doubling funds" has only appeared in specific market conditions in the past, indicating a strong performance this year [10]. Fund Flow and Investor Behavior - The market's upward trend is primarily supported by abundant liquidity, with margin financing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting increased trading activity [8]. - A notable "deposit migration" trend is observed, where residents' deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan in July, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan, suggesting a shift of savings into capital markets [8]. - Stock ETFs have seen a resurgence in trading volume, with significant daily transactions, including 1454.54 billion yuan on August 18 [8]. Institutional Participation - Foreign and insurance capital are becoming increasingly important, with foreign investment in Chinese assets rising and insurance companies increasing their stock investment ratio to 8.4% [9]. - The number of new institutional accounts has surged to historical highs, correlating positively with the issuance of equity funds [11]. Future Outlook - The influx of new capital into the A-share market is expected to continue, supported by high-interest deposits maturing and policies encouraging long-term investments from insurance and social security funds [12]. - The performance of listed companies is identified as a critical factor for long-term fund performance, with fund managers focusing on fundamental analysis and in-depth research [13][14]. - The market is anticipated to benefit from liquidity easing and declining interest rates, with a focus on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry [14].

Market Performance - On August 18, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones up 0.01%, S&P 500 down 0.07%, and Nasdaq down 0.14% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index opened with a gain of over 1.2% but later saw a reduction in its increase [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks showed strong performance, with notable gains: iQIYI and Xunlei both surged over 20%, Douyu up over 10%, and Zhihu up 9.81% [2][3] - Xunlei's stock price increased significantly, with its investment in Ying Shi Innovation reaching a market cap of 107.9 billion yuan after a "20cm" limit-up [4] Financial Results - Xunlei reported a floating profit of $720 million from its investment in Ying Shi Innovation, with a second-quarter profit of $727.4 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 28,996% [4] - iQIYI's stock surged by 27% following the announcement of new measures by the National Radio and Television Administration to enhance content supply [5] A-Share Market - The A-share market reached several records, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a 10-year high and total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time [7] - The People's Bank of China reported a significant decrease in household deposits, indicating a potential shift of funds into the stock market [7] Foreign Investment - There is an increasing willingness among global investors to allocate capital to Chinese assets, with foreign holdings of domestic bonds and stocks currently at about 3% to 4% [7]