Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments by several small and medium-sized banks in Guizhou Province, including the cancellation of automatic renewal for notice deposits, reflect a response to regulatory requirements aimed at maintaining market order and reducing high-interest deposit products [1][2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - Guizhou Wuchuan Rural Commercial Bank announced the cancellation of the automatic renewal feature for notice deposits effective October 17, in line with regulatory directives [1][2]. - Over ten banks in Guizhou, including rural credit cooperatives and village banks, have issued similar announcements regarding the adjustment of notice deposit products [5]. - Beijing Bank has also adjusted its notice deposit rates, linking new unit notice deposits to its listed interest rates starting October 1, 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustments by local banks are seen as a move to lower notice deposit interest rates and align them more closely with demand deposit rates [5][6]. - Major state-owned banks and most joint-stock banks had already halted automatic renewal of notice deposits in the second half of last year, indicating a broader industry trend [6]. - The disappearance of high-interest deposits and the continuous decline in fixed deposit rates may encourage customers to shift their funds towards bank wealth management products and gold investments [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The pressure on banks' interest margins has increased, prompting them to reduce high-interest deposit products while seeking alternative methods to attract deposits [6]. - The competitive landscape among banks remains intense, with the potential for some high-interest products to re-emerge in the future [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slowdown of deposit relocation does not mean it has ended. Further data observation is needed as the YoY growth rate of non - bank deposits remains at a relatively high level, and there are seasonal disturbances. Asset relocation may continue due to factors such as the high economic base and trade frictions in Q4 [2][14] - The bond market is likely to remain weakly volatile. A defensive approach is recommended, with control over the duration level, and seizing allocation and trading opportunities after adjustments [3][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market showed a "first decline then rise" trend. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond rates changed by +0.4bp and -3bp respectively. Market sentiment was affected by factors such as US - China negotiation signals, stock market trends, and economic data [10] - Deposit relocation accelerated in July and August but slowed down in September. It is still too early to conclude that it has ended [11][14] - The bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to focus on defense, control the duration, and choose to allocate certificates of deposit and short - term interest - rate bonds [15] 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Fundamentals - The central bank had a net withdrawal this week, and the capital interest rate increased. Next week, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases is less than that of the previous week [16] - The R001 and DR001 increased by 5bp and 1bp respectively compared to October 11th. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first rose, then fell, and then rose again [18] 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields first rose and then fell. Except for the 7Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds increased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds narrowed [26] - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened negatively, and the spread of 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed [29][30] 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The median duration of the full - sample bond funds slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds increased, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread narrowed rapidly. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.6%, and the exchange leverage ratio decreased to 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed [33] 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase, and the 10Y Treasury bond 250016.IB will be re - issued. The issuance scale of local government bonds will also increase [48][51] - The net financing of certificates of deposit increased this week, and the average issuance rate rose to 1.63% [53] 3.3 Economic Data - In September, the import and export growth rates significantly rebounded, and prices generally recovered. The YoY decline of the freight rate index slowed down in October, and industrial production improved marginally [59][60] - The YoY growth rate of non - bank deposits declined in September, and the M1 growth rate increased [60] 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The release of key US inflation data was postponed due to the government "shutdown." The expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has increased again, mainly due to the weak employment market [69] - US bonds rose, and most emerging markets had more gains than losses [70] 3.5 Major Asset Performance - The Shanghai Gold Index performed the best, followed by Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, Chinese bonds, the US dollar, convertible bonds, Shanghai Copper, rebar, the CSI 300 Index, live pigs, the CSI 1000 Index, and crude oil [74] 3.6 Policy Review - On October 17th, multiple policies were introduced, including promoting logistics cost reduction, expanding green trade, adjusting the Hainan duty - free shopping policy, and more. These policies aim to support economic development and stabilize market expectations [77][82]

Core Insights - The rapid increase in bank wealth management products is driven by a shift in deposits, with a notable rise in non-bank deposits and a decrease in resident deposits, indicating a trend of residents moving their savings into wealth management products [2][3] Group 1: Market Growth - As of June 2023, the total scale of the bank wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [2] - In July 2023, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, while resident deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, highlighting the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" towards wealth management products [2] Group 2: Capital Increase Trends - Wealth management companies have begun a significant capital increase trend, with four companies increasing their registered capital this year alone, surpassing the total number of capital increases in 2022 [3][4] - The registered capital of Xinyin Wealth Management was raised from 5 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan, marking a 100% increase [3] Group 3: Regulatory and Strategic Drivers - The capital increases are driven by regulatory compliance, business expansion, and strategic positioning, as companies must meet specific net capital requirements [4] - The management scale of Xinyin Wealth Management reached 2.32 trillion yuan, growing by 6.34% compared to the end of 2022, necessitating capital supplementation due to increased risk capital consumption [4][5] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Product Diversification - The increase in capital allows wealth management companies to enhance their investment in high-risk assets, such as equity and non-standard assets, thereby expanding their product offerings [6] - Analysts suggest that the capital increase serves as a buffer against potential investment losses, enabling companies to develop a more diverse product matrix [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that capital increases will become a normalized action in the coming years as companies enter a new phase of development [7][8] - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue in the medium to long term, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and a shift in residents' asset allocation strategies [7]

Core Insights - The transfer of bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions can be described as a "tide rising and falling" phenomenon, where deposits move to wealth management and bond funds when deposit yields are lower than bond market returns [2] - In the first half of this year, there was a significant increase in non-bank deposits due to a wealth effect from rising capital markets, but the growth rate began to decline in August and September [2][3] - The latest data from the central bank indicates a decrease of 1.06 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits in September, with a year-on-year reduction of 1.97 trillion yuan [2] - In contrast, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.55 trillion yuan, but a month-on-month decrease of nearly 1 trillion yuan [2] - The trend of deposit migration peaked in July, with a notable increase in non-bank deposits, but this trend has started to slow down in August and September [3] Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters of this year, non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 4.81 trillion yuan, compared to an increase of 4.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in growth in the third quarter despite a strong first half [3] - Household deposits increased by 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, while non-financial enterprise deposits rose by 1.53 trillion yuan, a significant improvement from a decrease of 2.11 trillion yuan last year [3][4] - The increase in enterprise deposits is attributed to government bond issuance and local governments' efforts to clear overdue payments to businesses, which has improved corporate financial conditions [3][4] M1 and Investment Behavior - M1 has shown continuous improvement for five months, indicating an increase in demand deposits, which are primarily held for further investment rather than for earning interest [4] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of assets by residents in response to changes in asset return rates, indicating a broader risk appetite [4] - The growth of non-bank financial institution deposits is also linked to the increased regularization of non-bank deposits and a rise in interbank certificates of deposit [4][5] Regulatory Impact - In December 2024, new regulations aimed at curbing fund circulation will affect non-bank interbank deposit rates, but the current data suggests that the impact on non-bank deposits has been limited [5] - The sudden decrease in non-bank deposits in September indicates a potential shift in investor risk preferences, as rational investors may begin to move back towards deposit markets or fixed-income markets as capital markets reach certain heights [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, financial data was neutral, continuing the trend of "weak credit and rising M1 year-on-year". Affected by the base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing is expected to decline. The "deposit relocation" process needs further verification, and the bond market is expected to be mainly volatile [6][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial Data Review - **Social Financing**: In September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing declined slightly to 8.68%. The government bond's driving effect on social financing weakened due to the misaligned issuance rhythm and high base from the previous year. Excluding government bonds, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 5.94% [4][10]. - **Money Supply**: M1 continued its high - growth trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% in September, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year gap between M1 and M2 widened to -1.2%. The growth was driven by a low base last year and increased fiscal spending [5][17]. - **Credit**: The total credit was slightly weak and structurally differentiated. In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, slightly lower than expected. Corporate short - term loans expanded, while resident credit was weak. Resident short - term loans increased less year - on - year, and the personal consumption loan discount policy's effect was not fully shown. Resident long - term loans increased year - on - year due to housing policy optimization and the sales season. Overall, the credit data showed that policy guidance was effective in some areas, but enterprise long - term investment willingness and resident consumption credit recovery were still constraints [20][21]. - **Deposit**: In September, RMB deposit data showed structural differentiation. Resident deposits increased significantly, while non - banking financial institution deposits decreased. This was affected by seasonal factors and the high base from the previous year, and the "deposit relocation" trend needs further verification [27]. 2. Financial Data and Bond Market Outlook - The financial data in September was neutral, and the bond market is expected to improve slightly in the fourth quarter but remain a weak asset, mainly volatile. Investors should focus on four short - term disturbance factors: tariff trends, fund sales fee rate adjustments, inflation trends, and equity market performance [30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the growth rate of social financing (社融) has declined, primarily due to a high base effect and weak credit demand from the real sector. New short-term loans for enterprises and medium to long-term loans for residents are highlights, but their sustainability remains to be observed [4][3] - In September 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, down from 1.59 trillion yuan in September 2024. New social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, compared to 3.76 trillion yuan in the same month last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [3][4] - The report notes that the equity market's profit-making effect has weakened, leading to a pause in the trend of residents moving deposits into the market. The significant drop in new non-bank deposits in September reflects this trend [4][3] Group 2 - The M1 growth rate has increased, and the M1-M2 spread has contracted to the lowest level since 2022. However, the correlation between M1, M2, and economic activity has weakened, indicating complex underlying factors [4][32] - The report highlights structural bright spots in September's financial data, but these are largely influenced by base effects and short-term policy impacts. The bond market is primarily pricing in redemption pressures rather than a combination of weak fundamentals and loose liquidity [4][5] - Recommendations for bond investments in Q4 2025 suggest prioritizing convertible bonds, short-term credit bonds, and short-term interest rate bonds, while advising caution with long-term and ultra-long-term bonds due to increased volatility [4][5]

广发证券则表示，市场风偏波动但不改增量资金入市趋势，券商板块景气度有望震荡上行，但估值滞 涨，资本市场稳定性提升下券商板块兼具工具属性，建议关注Q3业绩弹性催化以及华泰证券 （601688）(A/H)、东方证券（600958）(A/H)、中金公司（601995）(H)、国泰海通(A/H)、中信证券 （600030）(A/H)等投资机会。 中资券商股集体走低，截至发稿，广发证券（000776）(01776)跌5.15%，报19.88港元；中信建投 （601066）证券(06066)跌4.23%，报13.37港元；国泰海通(02611)跌3.07%，报15.18港元；光大证券 （601788）(06178)跌2.22%，报10.58港元。 消息面上，最新发布的9月金融数据显示，存款结构呈现显著分化，住户存款与非银金融机构存款呈 现"一增一减"。其中，住户存款新增2.96万亿元，同比多增7600亿元；非银存款减少1.06万亿元，同比 少增1.97万亿元。爱建证券发布研报称，该格局并非意味着存款向资本市场迁移进程的逆转，而是受到 季节性因素与去年同期高基数的共同扰动，尚不能据此断定"存款搬家"趋势的终结，其持续性仍需 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股集体走低，截至发稿，广发证券(01776)跌5.15%，报19.88港元；中信建 投证券(06066)跌4.23%，报13.37港元；国泰海通(02611)跌3.07%，报15.18港元；光大证券(06178)跌 2.22%，报10.58港元。 消息面上，最新发布的9月金融数据显示，存款结构呈现显著分化，住户存款与非银金融机构存款呈 现"一增一减"。其中，住户存款新增2.96万亿元，同比多增7600亿元；非银存款减少1.06万亿元，同比 少增1.97万亿元。爱建证券发布研报称，该格局并非意味着存款向资本市场迁移进程的逆转，而是受到 季节性因素与去年同期高基数的共同扰动，尚不能据此断定"存款搬家"趋势的终结，其持续性仍需后续 月份数据的进一步验证。 广发证券则表示，市场风偏波动但不改增量资金入市趋势，券商板块景气度有望震荡上行，但估值滞 涨，资本市场稳定性提升下券商板块兼具工具属性，建议关注Q3业绩弹性催化以及华泰证券(A/H)、东 方证券(A/H)、中金公司(H)、国泰海通(A/H)、中信证券(A/H)等投资机会。 ...

Group 1: AH Market Performance - A-shares have significantly outperformed H-shares since the beginning of Q3 2025, indicating a divergence from the AH premium rate trends[3] - The AH premium rate index recently touched a historical low of 120, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of the premium rate central tendency[20] - The premium rate is influenced by liquidity differences, investor structure, and tax policies between A-shares and H-shares[5] Group 2: Q4 Outlook - The Q4 investment strategy should shift focus from aggressive tech growth sectors to policy-favored areas such as consumption and re-inflation sectors[7] - A-share earnings growth is expected to be stronger than H-share, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices showing higher projected earnings per share (EPS) growth rates[12] - The liquidity in A-shares remains robust, with a significant portion of trading activity driven by "deposit migration" phenomena[69] Group 3: Valuation and Risk - The valuation of H-shares appears less attractive compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at relatively low levels[98] - The risk premium for H-shares is currently insufficient for foreign investors, while the Nasdaq remains appealing due to its risk premium levels[100] - The report highlights potential risks including policy misalignment and model failures that could impact future performance[13]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in RMB deposits, with a total increase of 22.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, including a rise of 12.73 trillion yuan in household deposits [1][2] - The high growth in deposits reflects the flexibility of residents' financial behavior and indicates potential future economic growth and policy directions [1] Deposit Trends - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is observed, where household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan in September while non-bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in asset allocation among residents [1] - The current asset allocation behavior of residents is highly flexible, responding to relative changes in yields between bank savings and other assets [1] Consumer Behavior - Residents are adopting a more rational consumption approach, with a prevailing "precautionary saving" mindset, leading to unfulfilled large consumption demands [2] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating that consumer demand remains weak and credit recovery needs to continue [2] Economic Implications - The substantial increase in household deposits represents a large "reservoir" of funds, indicating strong potential purchasing power that could support future consumption and investment [2] - If a portion of these deposits flows into consumption or investment in the future, it could provide strong support for demand and act as a driving force for economic growth [2]