对于未来黄金价格的走势，市场普遍持乐观态度。多家机构和分析师认为，随着市场避险情绪的持续升 温以及全球货币政策的宽松预期，黄金价格有望继续保持上涨态势。一些机构甚至预测，金价中枢有望 突破3800美元/盎司。 然而，也有分析人士提醒投资者，黄金市场同样存在风险，投资者应谨慎对待。在追逐金价上涨的同 时，也需关注市场动态和风险因素，合理配置资产，以规避潜在的市场风险。 据市场数据显示，自2025年初以来，黄金价格已累计上涨超过18%，涨幅显著。而此次冲破3100美元大 关，更是进一步巩固了黄金在全球金融市场中的地位。 分析人士指出，黄金价格的持续上涨，一方面得益于其作为避险资产的独特属性，另一方面也与全球货 币政策的宽松预期密切相关。随着美联储可能开启降息周期，美元汇率有望走弱，这将进一步提升黄金 的吸引力。 此外，全球央行对黄金的增持也是推动金价上涨的重要因素之一。据预测，全球央行年购金规模有望上 升至1300吨/年，这将为黄金市场提供有力的支撑。 3月31日，全球黄金市场迎来历史性时刻，伦敦现货黄金价格强势冲破3100美元/盎司的关键心理关口， 最高触及3101.51美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 近期，全球地 ...

自特朗普上台以来，他就牢牢占据着世界媒体的目光，先是给墨西哥湾改名，又意图吞并加拿大和格陵 兰岛，虽然很多时候他只是嘴炮先行，但无疑他的言行还是为世界增添了许多不稳定因素，市场避险情 绪因此持续升温，黄金也开始试探3100大关。 随着关税战的全面开打和美国经济衰退风险的上升，黄金后续很可能将迎来更加剧烈的波动，超级行情 即将来袭！此时恰逢领峰贵金属(igoldtg.top/mKzw6b)双倍积分活动限时开启，给力福利助您火力全开， 擒获机遇！ ● 如何获取积分？ 无需登记报名，活动期间交易黄金、白银，每累计达1手即送400积分。其中200原始积分自动到账；200 额外奖励积分， 需登录用户中心手动领取。积分奖励不设上限，限时2倍福利助力交易，交易越多奖励 越多！ ● 积分有什么作用？ 目前其"胡萝卜加大棒"策略初见成效，现代汽车集团随即宣布210亿美元对美投资计划，其中包含58亿 美元的钢铁厂项目，而韩国和英国也计划，在特朗普对等关税出台前，先行降低对美关税，同时也准备 加大对美投资。 只是目前这些举动都只停留在计划中，但是特朗普的关税危险却已实实在在在进行中，因此市场避险情 绪持续高涨，成为了黄金上探310 ...

来源|中国基金报 继3月27日创下历史新高后，3月28日，国际金价再次延续上涨态势。截至发稿，现货黄金升至3070美元/盎司附近，黄金期货升至3110美元/盎司 附近，双双再次刷新历史新高。 01 国际金价再创历史新高 3月27日深夜，黄金持续上涨，伦敦金现刷新历史新高至3059.63美元/盎司，COMEX黄金也一度涨至3071.30美元/盎司，创下历史新高。 3月28日，国际金价再次冲高。伦敦金现突破3070美元/盎司关口，并一度上涨至3074.22美元/盎司，再创历史新高。截至发稿，报3073.69美元/ 盎司，涨幅达0.59%。 COMEX黄金则突破3110美元/盎司关口，并一度上涨至3114.7美元/盎司，再创历史新高。截至发稿，报3112.8美元/盎司，涨幅达0.71%。 3月28日，国内黄金首饰价格也进一步上涨，最高已突破930元/克。截至发稿，周生生足金首饰价格涨至934元/克，周大福、六福等足金首饰价格 涨至932元/克，老凤祥足金首饰价格涨至929元/克。 02 多家银行上调积存金起购金额 金价续创历史新高！ 3月24日，招商银行发布公告称，自3月27日起，黄金账户活期买入起点及黄金账户定投 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London gold hitting $3059.63 per ounce and New York gold reaching $3071.30 per ounce on March 27 [1] - As of March 28, London gold surpassed $3070 per ounce, with current prices at $3079.25 per ounce, reflecting a 0.74% increase, while New York gold is at $3120.13 per ounce, up 0.95% [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with prices for gold jewelry surpassing 930 yuan per gram, including brands like Chow Sang Sang at 934 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook at 932 yuan per gram [3] Group 3: Banks Adjusting Gold Accumulation Products - Several banks have raised the minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products due to rising gold prices, with China Construction Bank increasing the minimum from 700 yuan to 800 yuan starting March 31 [5] - China Merchants Bank has also raised the minimum for gold account purchases from 700 yuan to 750 yuan, marking the second increase this year [9] - Ningbo Bank announced an increase in the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation from 700 yuan to 800 yuan effective March 19, 2025 [14] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raised the minimum investment for its gold accumulation business from 650 yuan to 700 yuan starting March 3 [17] - Bank of China adjusted the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products from 650 yuan to 700 yuan starting February 10 [20] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the adjustments in banks' gold accumulation rules are closely tied to the rising gold prices, which are expected to remain high due to increased market risk aversion stemming from global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [20] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce, predicting a potential range of $3250 to $3520 per ounce [22] - There are concerns about market overheating, with some institutions indicating that gold valuations are nearing historical highs, suggesting caution for future investments [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - The stock index is expected to have an upward trend despite short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to go long on stock index futures on dips [7][8]. - The precious metals market has a strong medium - to long - term upward logic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, and coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [11][12][14]. - For iron alloys, it is expected to be slightly oversupplied currently. Opportunities for deep out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon can be considered in the low - level range, and short - position exit opportunities for ferrosilicon can be considered at the bottom [19][20]. - For crude oil, fuel oil, and polyolefins, it is advisable to take long positions in the main contracts [23][24][27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see [30][31]. - For natural rubber, PVC, the downward space is limited [32][33][35]. - For urea, it is advisable to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. - For PX and PTA, it is advisable to participate in the low - level range, considering the changes in the cost of crude oil and the supply side [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it is advisable to operate cautiously, paying attention to port inventory and upstream and downstream device changes [41]. - For short - fiber, it is advisable to operate in the range following the cost side, controlling risks [42]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, paying attention to cost price changes, new device launches, and device overhauls [43]. - For soda ash, the short - term market is still demand - driven [44]. - For glass, the overall pattern is still loose, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the weakening of the market after the disappointment of the consumption improvement expectation [45]. - For caustic soda, it is expected to be oscillatory overall [46][47]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [48]. - For copper, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [50][51]. - For aluminum, it is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment [52][53]. - For zinc, it is expected to be in an interval oscillation [54][55]. - For lead, it is expected to be under pressure and oscillatory [56][57]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate under the influence of supply disturbances and weak demand [58][59]. - For nickel, the short - term price has support below, but the upward space is limited under the pattern of oversupply [60]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation in the short term, while polysilicon prices are expected to rise steadily [61][62]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and long - position attempts can be considered in the bottom support range after the price decline [63][64]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to continue to reduce short positions and advance the stop - profit [65][67]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is advisable to consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [68][69]. - For cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds [70][72]. - For sugar, it is advisable to go long on dips [73][75]. - For apples, it is advisable to go long on dips [76]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to try short - selling at high levels near the semi - annual line pressure [77][78]. - For eggs, it is advisable to sell deep out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to short - term short - selling opportunities at high levels in the far - month contracts [79][80]. - For corn, it is advisable to wait and see temporarily [81][82]. - For logs, it is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [83][84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income Market 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.49%, 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 3779 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1046 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend market in treasury bond futures in the future, and the volatility will increase [5]. 3.2 Equity - Related Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.27%, 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.12% respectively. It is expected that the stock index will have an upward trend, and it is advisable to go long on stock index futures on dips [7]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 706.76, with a decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 707.3; the closing price of the silver main contract was 8,249, with an increase of 0.01%, and the night - session closing price was 8360. The US economic data is weak, and international political and trade uncertainties provide new upward drivers for precious metals. The medium - to long - term logic is still strong, and existing long positions can be held [9]. 3.4 Black Metals Market 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, but new macro - incremental policies may be introduced, and the peak demand season is coming, which may support prices. The valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [11][12]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in port inventory support the price. The valuation level has decreased, but it is still the highest among black - series products. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [14]. 3.4.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the fundamentals of coke are continuously improving. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions, paying attention to the impact of sudden factors [16][17]. 3.4.4 Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.29% to 6108 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.50% to 6002 yuan/ton. It is expected to be slightly oversupplied currently. Opportunities for deep out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon can be considered in the low - level range, and short - position exit opportunities for ferrosilicon can be considered at the bottom [19][20]. 3.5 Energy Market 3.5.1 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. OPEC + announced a new compensatory production - cut plan. It is expected that the cease - fire agreement will be negotiated, and OPEC + will increase production on April 1. The current trend is mainly oscillatory and rebounding. It is advisable to take long positions in the main contract [21][23][24]. 3.5.2 Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The market expects an increase in supply, and the spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has declined, but the decline in European inventory limits the downward space. It is expected that high - sulfur fuel oil will be in short supply, and the trade war will have a negative impact on fuel oil. It is advisable to take long positions in the main contract [25][26][27]. 3.6 Chemicals Market 3.6.1 Polyolefins - For polyethylene, the market price was adjusted, and the low - price transactions improved, but the supply - demand was weak, and the confidence of market participants was insufficient. For polypropylene, the futures rebounded slightly, and the cost support was stable, but the demand did not improve significantly. It is expected that the market will be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. It is advisable to take long positions in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. 3.6.2 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.22%. The operating loss has narrowed, the operating rate has rebounded significantly, and the factory inventory has been reduced. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is high. It is advisable to wait and see [30][31]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.44%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 0.07%. The import was lower than expected, and the previous negative factors have basically disappeared. The supply in the domestic Yunnan production area is expected to increase, and the overseas is in the low - production season. The demand has improved slightly. The social inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The downward space is limited, and it is advisable to wait for new fundamental drivers to go long [32][33]. 3.6.4 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.59%. The core contradiction in the market is the game between the continuous release of new production capacity and the weak recovery demand under policy support. It is expected that PVC will have upward space after bottoming out. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the demand is stable, the export is still dependent on low prices, and the profit has improved. The social inventory has decreased [34][35]. 3.6.5 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.70%. The market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high production in March and winter - storage goods put pressure on the market. It is expected that the short - term market will oscillate. The supply is stable, the agricultural demand is ending, and the industrial demand is strong. The inventory has decreased [36][37][38]. 3.6.6 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2505 main contract rose 0.32%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 200 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 85 US dollars/ton. The PX device maintenance increased, the load decreased, and the downstream PTA start - up increased. The short - term cost of crude oil oscillated and rose, and the supply - demand structure continued to improve. It is advisable to participate in the low - level range, paying attention to the changes in crude oil cost and supply [39]. 3.6.7 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2505 main contract rose 0.29%. The supply increased, the demand improved, and the processing fee decreased. The short - term supply - demand of PTA improved, and the external crude oil price adjusted at the bottom after stopping falling. The short - term support improved. It is advisable to operate in the low - level range, paying attention to the supply - demand situation [40]. 3.6.8 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.56%. The overall start - up load decreased slightly, the inventory was high, and the de - stocking was difficult. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the demand gradually improved. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the rebound height will be limited. It is advisable to operate cautiously, paying attention to port inventory and device changes [41]. 3.6.9 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505 main contract fell 0.33%. The device load increased, the demand improved slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected that the short - fiber will oscillate in the future, and it is advisable to operate in the range following the cost side, controlling risks [42]. 3.6.10 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2505 main contract fell 0.16%. The cost support was slightly insufficient, the supply increased slightly, and the demand for downstream soft drinks gradually recovered. It is expected to adjust following the cost side, paying attention to cost price changes, new device launches, and device overhauls [43]. 3.6.11 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 1439 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.49%. Some devices were under maintenance, and the supply increased slightly. The production decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was average. The market is still demand - driven in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 1260 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.70%. The number of production lines decreased, the inventory decreased, and the production - sales rate was high. The overall pattern is still loose, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the weakening of the market after the disappointment of the consumption improvement expectation [45]. 3.6.13 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 2552 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.51%. The production decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory accumulated rapidly. The alumina market is oversupplied, and the non - aluminum demand is also weak. It is expected to be oscillatory overall [46][47]. 3.6.14 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 5754 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.07%. The Finnish company will conduct annual maintenance, and the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - price pulp. It is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [48]. 3.7 Non - Ferrous Metals Market 3.7.1 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.33% to 73800 yuan/ton. The ore price fell, the supply continued to increase, the consumption improved slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate [49]. 3.7.2 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 82780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.3%. The Fed maintained the interest - rate range, and the Trump tariff policy showed signs of easing. The domestic central bank over - renewed the MLF. The copper concentrate processing fee decreased, the production will decrease, the traditional consumption season is coming, but the high price affects the consumption. The social inventory decreased, and the external market drove the internal market. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [50][51]. 3.7.3 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20675 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.05%; the alumina main contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.68%. The imported ore provides the main increment, the alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is small, and the consumption is in the peak season. The inventory decreased. It is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment [52][53]. 3.7.4 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.27%. The import of zinc ore increased, the smelting profit improved, and the supply will increase. The consumption improved, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be in an interval oscillation [54][55]. 3.7.5 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17660 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.74%. The lead concentrate processing fee was stable, a large - scale smelter

文 ｜ 韦昕澄 崔嵘 李翀 贾天楚 美国2月CPI增速全面低于预期和前值，呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，反映了美国通胀继续降温的 趋势。然而，2月CPI并未反映美国加征2 5%钢铝产品关税和第二轮对华加征1 0%关税的通胀影 响，难以打消市场对于美国通胀前景的隐忧，在对等关税详情揭晓前更给人以"暴风雨前的宁静"之 感。我们预计美国总体CPI同比在4月前仍能因基数效应而继续下降、但下半年存在反弹隐忧，美 股不必急于"抄底"，短期在通胀反弹前不妨留意美债的交易机会。 美国2月通胀增速全面低于预期和前值，总体CPI环比升0 . 2%（前值0 . 5%），核心CPI环比升 0 . 2%（前值0 . 4%），总体CPI同比升2 . 8%（前值3 . 0%），核心CPI同比升3 . 1%（前值3 . 3%）， 四个读数都各低于预期0 . 1 p p t。 ▍ 本份CPI报告呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，显示美国通胀继续降温之势。 总体CPI同比重回" 2 "字头，核心CPI同比是2 0 2 1年4月以来最低值，商品CPI环比和服务CPI环比 都较前值回落，除住宅外核心服务CPI同比涨幅亦缩窄至3 . 9%，这些读数都反映了美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold prices have recently experienced significant fluctuations, with spot prices dropping below $2900 per ounce, influenced by various geopolitical and market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of February 27, the London gold spot price fell by 0.81% to $2892.31 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.81% to $2906.8 per ounce [1]. - On February 25, the London gold spot closed down 1.29% at $2914.52, and COMEX gold fell 1.36% to $2928.6 per ounce [1]. - The overall trend for the first two months of 2025 shows a notable increase in international gold prices, with COMEX futures rising by 10% from $2641 per ounce and spot prices increasing by 10.23% from $2623.82 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the narrowing price gap between spot and futures gold, alongside diminishing demand for physical gold, leading to a slowdown in inventory replenishment in the New York precious metals market [2]. - Geopolitical developments, particularly the anticipated visit of Ukrainian President Zelensky to Washington and the signing of agreements related to rare earth minerals, have contributed to market expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be nearing resolution, further pressuring gold prices [2]. - Five key factors driving the overall increase in gold prices include: 1. Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, which has heightened market risk aversion 2. Increased price differentials between spot and futures gold prompting arbitrage trading 3. Continuous accumulation of gold reserves by global central banks 4. Sustained validation of inflation resilience in the U.S. economy, enhancing gold's anti-inflation appeal 5. Rising safe-haven demand due to global geopolitical risks [2].