Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming summer cultural and tourism consumption season in China, with over 4,300 events and approximately 39,000 activities planned, alongside a distribution of over 570 million yuan in consumption subsidies [1] - Various regions, including Sichuan, Hainan, and Shaanxi, have already announced substantial amounts for summer consumer vouchers, exceeding 100 million yuan in total [1][3] - The article emphasizes that the upcoming peak season for consumption is expected to boost the recovery of contact-based service industries after a brief downturn [7] Group 2 - Special activities and consumption vouchers are being utilized as strategies to attract consumers, with Shanghai and Beijing organizing various themed events to enhance summer tourism [3] - The data indicates a significant increase in travel demand, with a 5% week-on-week growth in passenger volume for civil aviation and a projected 9.53 billion railway passengers during the summer period, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase [6] - Family travel, particularly for parent-child outings, is identified as a major driver of summer tourism, with orders from family groups accounting for 40% to 60% of total bookings [6] Group 3 - Financial policies are being strengthened to support the tourism sector, with multiple banks offering financial incentives for service consumption in key areas such as tourism and hospitality [9] - The summer economy is seen as a critical driver for macroeconomic recovery, providing diverse options for consumers and promoting structural optimization in the consumption market [9]

新华财经北京7月3日电（崔凯）欧元区6月综合PMI终值从5月的50.2上修至50.6，创三个月新高，标志 着私营部门活动连续第二个月扩张。制造业与服务业同步回暖是主要驱动力，但新增业务持续13个月收 缩、就业增长乏力等问题仍存隐忧。 意大利6月服务业PMI从53.2降至52.1，创三个月最低，但仍为连续第七个月扩张。新出口订单以五个月 最快速度下滑，反映欧洲需求疲软及全球贸易紧张；投入成本受薪资、能源及原材料价格上涨推动，但 企业暂未大幅转嫁压力，销售价涨幅放缓；就业连续第五个月增长，增速创一年新高，积压工作量进一 步减少。企业基于新客户开发和市场稳定预期，对未来12个月保持乐观。 尽管新增业务仍延续13个月的收缩态势，但积压工作量的持续消化为产出增长提供了支持。此外，企业 信心指数也有所回升，达到自2024年7月以来的最高点，显示出对未来经济前景的乐观态度。 德国：制造业回暖抵消服务业疲软，通胀压力缓解重返扩张 爱尔兰以连续第四个月扩张领跑，西班牙、意大利、德国紧随其后，但法国成为唯一连续十个月收缩的 主要经济体。 德国6月综合PMI终值50.4，较5月显著回升，制造业扩张部分抵消服务业收缩。新订单结束连续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Strong exports from South Korea may support the Bank of Korea's hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting on July 10, as increased fiscal spending could alleviate concerns about economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Nomura Securities economist Jeong Woo Park suggests that robust exports, particularly in semiconductors, will continue to bolster economic recovery in the second half of the year [1] - South Korea's exports rebounded in June, driven by active semiconductor shipments, despite global trade being hampered by increased tariffs from the U.S. [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Korea is not expected to lower interest rates for the remainder of the year, with a forecasted rate cut of 25 basis points in February 2026 marking the end of the current easing cycle [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the economic and financial data for June 2025, which serves as a "report card" for the effectiveness of policies in the first half of the year and a "decision anchor" for policy - setting in the second half. It predicts various economic indicators and analyzes the factors influencing these indicators [1][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Added Value - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 6.0%. The production PMI in June rose 0.3 pct to 51.0%, entering the expansion range, and the procurement volume index increased significantly. High - frequency data shows that the operating rate of key industries mostly rebounded, indicating stable and positive production operations [2][14][21]. 2. Social Retail Sales - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 6.2%. The service industry PMI in June slightly declined to 50.1% but remained in the expansion range. Real - estate sales were weak, pressuring post - real - estate cycle consumption. Automobile sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the "trade - in" policy is expected to further release consumption potential [3][25][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - Expected cumulative year - on - year growth in June is 3.7%. In infrastructure, the cumulative year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment may rebound, with the construction industry PMI rising to 52.8%, the asphalt plant operating rate increasing, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerating. In real estate, investment growth remained weak, with new home sales improving month - on - month but still weak year - on - year, and land transaction area below the seasonal level. In manufacturing, investment may remain basically flat, with domestic demand improving but external demand weak, and the business expectation index declining [4][30][35]. 4. Trade 4.1 Exports - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 4.2%. The Geneva Agreement may boost exports to the US in June, and exports to Europe are expected to remain stable. However, the global manufacturing PMI continued to decline and remained in the contraction range, indicating weak external demand overall. The export growth rate is expected to decline slightly [37][40]. 4.2 Imports - Expected year - on - year growth in June is - 1.0%. Import demand rebounded after the tariff suspension in May and further increased in June. Although the export container price increased in June, the import price remained low. The import growth rate is expected to rise slightly from a low level [5][45]. 5. Inflation 5.1 CPI - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 0.04%. In June, pork prices fluctuated within a narrow range, while vegetable prices rebounded. Considering the increase in oil prices and the low - base effect, the CPI year - on - year may turn positive [6][50][51]. 5.2 PPI - Expected year - on - year growth in June is - 3.0%. In June, most commodity prices rebounded, including industrial products, crude oil, natural gas, and non - ferrous metals, which had a positive impact on the PPI. The year - on - year decline in PPI is expected to narrow marginally [54][55]. 6. GDP - Expected year - on - year growth in the second quarter is 5.3%. Since the second quarter, the economy and finance have shown a moderate recovery. The manufacturing PMI from April to June was in the contraction range, and most economic indicators declined in May except for social retail sales. Considering the historical pattern of GDP seasonally - adjusted quarter - on - quarter decline in the second quarter, the economic growth in the second quarter is expected to decline slightly quarter - on - quarter but reach about 5.3% year - on - year [7][64]. 7. Social Financing and Credit 7.1 Credit - Expected new credit in June is 232 billion yuan. June is a traditional large - credit month, but considering the low and stable bill rates, the probability of a significant and unexpected increase in new credit is low. The report also analyzes the new credit in different sectors, including enterprises, residents, bill financing, and non - bank loans [8][67][80]. 7.2 Social Financing - Expected new social financing in June is 4.1 trillion yuan, with the corresponding year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock expected to be 8.9%. The report analyzes the components of new social financing, including government bond net financing, corporate bond net financing, and non - standard financing [8][82][90].

Market Overview - On July 1, the A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3454 points[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3457.75 points, up 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11% to 10,476.29 points[9] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1,496.8 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[9] Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, electricity, chemical pharmaceuticals, and fiberglass industries, while software development, internet services, batteries, and auto parts lagged[4] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with notable increases in fiberglass, chemical pharmaceuticals, and electricity sectors[9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.13 times and 38.67 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation over the past three years[4] - The trading volume is above the median level for the past three years, suggesting a healthy market activity[4] Economic Outlook - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment[4] - Long-term capital inflows are increasing, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow from insurance funds, providing significant support to the market[4] Investment Strategy - A balanced strategy is recommended to optimize portfolio structure amid market fluctuations, focusing on growth stocks with strong mid-year performance and reasonable valuations[4] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in banking, electricity, chemical pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding sectors[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances[5]

重点行业PMI稳中有升 产需指数同步扩张 国家统计局数据显示，从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数 和从业人员指数低于临界点。 6月30日，国家统计局发布最新数据，6月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。据了解，4月份，制 造业PMI为49%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点。6月份，制造业PMI继续上升至49.7%。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读表示，6月份，制造业PMI升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造 业景气面有所扩大。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，6月制造业PMI较上月回升0.2个百分点，好于季节性。其中，6月生产指数较上月回升0.3个百 分点，6月是传统生产淡季，但今年"淡季不淡"，企业生产仍在加快扩张。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，我国制造业PMI连续两个月出现回升，这反映出当前随 ...

Group 1: Equity Quantitative Analysis - The equity market risk factor returns have normalized in H1 2025, with small-cap and momentum factors performing prominently. The net profit of the entire A-share market has turned positive year-on-year for the first time since Q2 2023, indicating a significant recovery in the industrial sector. The TMT sector is expected to continue its growth in the second half of the year, with some cyclical industries likely to see a performance inflection point [3][14][23] - The technical analysis suggests that the broad market index may continue in a volatile pattern, with a focus on breakout directions. The overall ranking of indices is as follows: CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > CSI 2000 [3][39][41] Group 2: Interest Rate Quantitative Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 2% and stabilized at a low level of 1.6%-1.7%. The recovery in economic activity and credit impulses has suppressed further declines in interest rates. The current willingness to hold inflation assets has weakened again, compounded by negative ROE in the real estate sector and low leverage in high ROE industries, leading to a lack of upward momentum in interest rates [3][49][63] - The future direction of interest rates will depend on the demand for funds from high ROE and high-leverage industries, which are currently lacking [3][70][75] Group 3: Gold Quantitative Analysis - Gold is viewed as a hedge against risk, with current fiscal factors dominating its price movements. The geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties globally are expected to support gold prices. The technical analysis indicates that gold has consolidated and accumulated support, with a target price set at $3,885 per ounce [3][81][87] Group 4: Industry Quantitative Analysis - The rotation speed among industries is expected to accelerate, with opportunities becoming more dispersed. Long-term investments in growth industries are anticipated to yield higher expected returns. The lifecycle model indicates that overall growth in primary industries is insufficient, with growth concentrated in tertiary industries, particularly in the basic chemical sector [4][14][23] - The TMT sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, while industries such as basic chemicals and building materials are expected to stabilize and recover due to ongoing fiscal support for infrastructure projects [23][31][37]

英国央行行长贝利：近几个月来，表明经济正在复苏的证据有所加强，尤其是在劳动力市场。 ...

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...

韩国总统李在明26日在国会发表施政演说，强调搞活民生和提振经济是当务之急。若当前的低增长状态长期持续，将陷入更难把握机会、竞争和矛盾激化的恶性循环。只要资本市场恢复透明公正运转，就能形成经济复苏、企业发展的良性循环，进而迈入韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）突破5000点大关的时代。 ...