Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Ghana has cut its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 18%, marking the third consecutive reduction, amid expectations of continued inflation decline [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee decided to lower the key interest rate to 18% due to high real interest rates, providing room for further monetary easing to stimulate economic recovery [1]. - The central bank will now use 14-day treasury bills to manage market liquidity [3]. - The Bank of Ghana has cumulatively reduced the policy rate by 1000 basis points by 2025, indicating one of the most significant easing cycles in recent years [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Ghana's inflation rate, which peaked above 54% in December 2022, has gradually decreased, reaching 8% last month, the lowest in over four years, and is expected to remain stable within the central bank's target range of 6% to 10% until mid-2026 [1][2]. - The government forecasts an economic growth rate of approximately 4% this year, with expectations to reach at least 4.8% by 2026, while inflation is projected to remain around 8% by the end of next year [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the interest rate cut will gradually lower loan rates, providing relief to businesses and households facing high borrowing costs [4]. - The central bank's optimistic signals suggest potential for further significant rate cuts, with market expectations indicating at least another 500 basis points reduction by 2026, exceeding current market forecasts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. monetary policy, domestic economic recovery, and global risk sentiment. The RMB is expected to maintain a stable range in the near term, with potential fluctuations based on these influences [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of November 25, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0847, an increase of 28 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize the exchange rate [1]. - The RMB has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a low of 7.25 in 2024 due to a strong USD and tightening U.S. trade policies, followed by a rapid appreciation to around 7.00 due to rising risk aversion [3]. - In 2025, the RMB's exchange rate fluctuated between a "policy floor" and a "market ceiling," with a cumulative appreciation of 0.93% for the year, reflecting a narrowing volatility range compared to previous years [3][4]. Influencing Factors - U.S. monetary policy remains a critical factor, with market predictions suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could exert downward pressure on the USD and influence the RMB [3][4]. - The pace of domestic economic recovery is also crucial, as China's GDP growth met expectations in Q3, but consumption and export recovery remain incomplete, with capital flows facing pressure [4]. - Global risk sentiment, particularly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has increased demand for USD as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4][6]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a range between 7.05 and 7.15 by the end of 2025, with the strength of the USD and the pace of domestic economic recovery being the primary influencing factors [6]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as anticipated and the domestic economy continues to recover steadily, the RMB could potentially return to around 6.98 in 2026 [6]. - Investors should remain vigilant regarding exchange rate fluctuations, as unexpected events, such as changes in the Middle East situation or global economic uncertainties, could lead to short-term volatility [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On November 25th, the A-share market rebounded across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to close at 3870.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53% to close at 12777.31 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.77% to close at 2980.93 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.43% to close at 1302.17 points. Market turnover reached 1.8262 trillion yuan, an increase of 85.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In the industry sector, communication (+3.54%), media (+2.85%), and non-ferrous metals (+2.42%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (-0.32%), transportation (-0.11%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.01%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,297/160/991 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of 11.1 billion, -2.3 billion, -6.2 billion, and -2.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +13.3 billion, +8.5 billion, +1.4 billion, and -23.2 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 146.55, 108, 33.2, and 14 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.66%, -10.49%, -5%, and -3.19% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles were 21%, 18%, 21%, and 25% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long-term contracts of each variety on dips [2]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 25th, interest rate bonds remained flat. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF remained flat, T fell 0.08%, and TL fell 0.33% [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. The CTD bond of the 2-year treasury bond futures is 250017.IB, with a yield change of -0.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.081, and an IRR of 1.72%. The CTD bond of the 5-year treasury bond futures is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.129, and an IRR of 1.87%. The CTD bond of the 10-year treasury bond futures is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.119, and an IRR of 1.84%. The CTD bond of the 30-year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.14, and an IRR of 1.81% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 302.1 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 407.5 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 105.4 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and the valuation of interest rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge on rallies for T and TL [2]. 4. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [10].

格隆汇11月25日丨ASIA COMM HOLD(00104.HK)公告，截至2025年9月30日止6个月，集团营业收入为 3.09亿港元，同比减少9%。尽管销售额于本期间内轻微下降，惟由于需求依然强劲，市场保持韧性。 集团于期间录得纯利3300万港元，而去年同期则录得纯利3600万港元。每股盈利4.39港仙。 集团目前于中国大陆经营5间店铺。集团期内仍将重点放在核心商店，并已精简营运成本，并将持续此 一做法，旨在进一步提升每家商店的成本效益。上述店铺的未来业务前景仍取决于中国大陆经济于面临 目前挑战后的复苏情况。 ...

Group 1: Global Market Outlook for 2026 - The global GDP growth is projected to be only 2.4% in 2026, marking a near ten-year low, influenced by multiple cycles and policy factors [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy normalization is expected to maintain interest rates around 3%, leading to high-risk-free returns and impacting corporate profitability and stock valuations, particularly in financing-dependent sectors like technology and manufacturing [1] - China's economic recovery is crucial for global recovery, currently undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing employment and boosting consumer income through policies like tax cuts and interest rate reductions [2] Group 2: Challenges to Globalization - The global trade growth is anticipated to slow down to 0.8% in 2025, the lowest in nearly fourteen years, due to rising trade barriers and policy uncertainties, which may continue into 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI - The AI wave is seen as a long-term growth driver that transcends economic cycles, representing a significant opportunity for investment [4] - Different markets present varied investment strategies; A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Nasdaq require tailored approaches to capture opportunities effectively [5] Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - A-shares offer long-term investment value, with high-quality, stable earnings potential in sectors like high-end manufacturing and essential consumer goods, despite high valuations in the AI sector [6] - The potential for recovery in consumer sectors is supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [6] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by lower valuations in AI-related companies compared to their A-share counterparts, making it an attractive investment area [7] - The AI industry is viewed as a growth engine for investment portfolios in the coming years [7] Group 6: Nasdaq Market Insights - Nasdaq is home to many leading AI companies, and historical trends suggest that the next AI leader will likely emerge from this market [8] - Investing in Nasdaq index products is recommended to capitalize on the potential growth from the AI revolution [8] Group 7: Gold as a Hedge - Gold has performed well in the past two years, but excessive reliance on its past performance for future gains is cautioned against, as all investments experience cycles [9] Group 8: Conclusion on Investment Strategy - The overarching theme for 2026 is to seek certainty amid uncertainty, with a focus on AI as a primary investment theme, complemented by strategic allocations in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Nasdaq, along with a measured approach to gold for risk hedging [10]

金融期货早班车 金融研究 2025年11月25日 星期二 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 126.61、91.37、28.65 与 8.96 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.64%、-8.75%、-4.24%与-2%，三年期历史分位数分别为 31%、25%、22%及 30%。 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 招商期货有限公司 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：11 月 24 日，A 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.05%，报收 3836.77 点；深成 指上涨 0.37%，报收 12585.08 点；创业板指上涨 0.31%，报收 2929.04 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.84%， 报收 1296.6 点。市场成交 17,404 亿元，较前日减少 2,432 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+4.31%)， 传媒(+3.49%)，计算机(+2.41%)涨幅居前；石油石化(-1.21%)，煤炭(-1.09%)，银行(-0.79%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，I ...

新华财经北京11月24日电德国11月商业信心意外下滑，这是一个新的迹象，表明尽管政府加大支出，但 克服经济停滞仍面临挑战。德国智库IFO公布的数据显示，德国11月IFO商业预期指数从上月的91.6降至 90.6，分析师此前预计读数将基本保持不变。 （文章来源：新华财经） IFO总裁Clemens Fuest称，"企业对当前形势的评估更为积极。"不过，由于制造业前景受到"严重打 击"，"他们对经济复苏会很快到来几乎没有信心"。这些数据凸显了人们对政府通过投资基础设施和国 防来恢复增长的计划的怀疑。尽管德国央行和大多数其他预测机构均预计，在经历了动荡的2025年之 后，第四季度的产出将出现增长，但一些机构最近下调了他们的预测。 ...

金融研究 2025年11月21日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 20 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.4%，报收 3931.05 点；深成 指下跌 0.76%，报收 12980.82 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3042.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1328.19 点。市场成交 17,226 亿元，较前日减少 200 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+1.4%)， 综合(+0.87%)，银行(+0.86%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.39%)，煤炭(-2.1%)，电力设备(-1.96%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,452/150/3,846。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-156、-210、34、332 亿元，分别变动+23、-41、-24、+42 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.81、61.95、25.75 与 5.69 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-11.89%、-9.97%、-6.41%与-2.15%，三年期历史分 ...

2025年11月20日 星期四 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：11 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.18%，报收 点；深 19 3946.74 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成指下跌 0%，报收 13080.09 点；创业板指上涨 0.25%，报收 3076.85 点；科创 50 指数下跌 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.97%，报收 1344.8 点。市场成交 17,427 亿元，较前日减少 2,033 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属(+2.39%)，石油石化(+1.67%)，国防军工(+1.11%)涨幅居前；综合(-3.08%)，房地产(-2.09%)， | | | | | | | 1,196/76/4,173。沪 | | | | | | 传媒(-1.72%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/ ...

今日A股市场呈现典型的结构性分化，三大指数涨跌互现，上证指数微跌0.04%，创业板指微涨0.12%， 市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。值得关注的是，两市成交额维持在1.44万亿元的高位，这清晰地表明，市场的 博弈焦点并非在于"离场"还是"进场"，而在于"结构"与"方向"。 本次市场分化的核心特征，是资金从高估值成长板块向低估值资源及防御板块的迁移。从申万一级行业 看，石油石化（+1.22%）、银行（+0.82%）等板块领涨，而医药生物、计算机等则跌幅居前。这一现 象的背后，是三重驱动逻辑在发挥作用： 此外，水产、中船系等主题板块的活跃，揭示了资金在寻找主线之外的α机会。中船系的走强，尤其值 得关注，它可能预示着市场对军工行业的认知，正从早期的主题炒作，转向对"十五五"规划订单实质落 地的预期。 中长期视角下，决定市场走向的仍是经济复苏的强度与产业升级的进程。当前的价值风格占优，是对宏 观环境的阶段性适应。待政策效果进一步显现，经济增长路径更加明确后，符合国家战略方向的科技成 长板块，在经过充分的估值消化后，有望重新引领市场。 投资寄语：市场的短期波动是群体情绪的映射，而长期价值则取决于企业内在的盈利能力。作为一名理 性 ...