点击蓝字，关注我们 5月2 0日 2025.05 [宏观大事件 ] 5月1日 日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会 劳动节：A股、港股、港股通、沪股通/深股通、新加坡股、马来西亚股全天休市 5月2日 劳动节：A 股、港股通、沪股通/深股通全天休市 美国4月失业率 美国4月季调后非农就业人口(万人) 5月5日 儿童节：日股全天休市；佛诞：港股、港股通、沪股通/深股通全天休市；劳动节：A 股 全天休市 5月6日 绿之日（补假）：日股全天休市 5月7日 —— BETA 投资月历 —— 美国EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告 中国4月外汇储备 中国4月黄金储备(待定) 5月8日 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会 英国央行公布利率决议 5月1 0日 中国4月CPI 中国4月PPI 5月1 2日 卫塞节：新加坡股、马来西亚股全天休市 中国4月社融 中国新增人民币贷款 (待定) 5月1 3日 日本央行公布4月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要 美国4月未季调CPI年 美国4月季调后CPI月率 5月1 5日 中国今日有1250亿元1年期中期借贷便利（MLF）到期 法国IEA公布月度原油市场报告 ...

美元指数跌破99关口是近期金融市场的一个重要事件。这一变动背后隐藏着诸多经济因素，也将对全球经济和金融市场带来深远影响，引起广泛 关注和讨论。 走势情况：近期美元指数持续下探，最终跌破了99关口。这一走势并非偶然，是一系列因素交织的结果。从技术层面看，美元指数已出现多日下 跌趋势，市场上看空美元的力量逐步增强。从更宏观角度，它与美国的经济数据表现、货币政策预期等息息相关。 未来展望：美元指数后市走向充满不确定性。若美国经济数据改善、货币政策转向，美元指数可能止跌回升。但如果经济持续疲软，货币政策维 持宽松，美元可能进一步走弱。投资者和企业需密切关注市场动态，做好风险管理。 你认为美元指数未来一段时间会回升还是继续下跌？不妨点赞、分享文章并在评论区交流看法。 汇率市场：美元指数下跌直接影响到各国货币与美元的汇率。一些新兴市场货币趁势反弹，在一定程度上缓解了本币贬值压力。对于进出口企业 而言，这会影响到它们的成本和利润。出口型企业可能因本币升值而面临订单减少的困境，进口型企业则因货币购买力增强而降低采购成本。 商品市场：美元与大宗商品价格通常呈反向关系。随着美元指数跌破99，黄金、原油等大宗商品价格往往会上涨。以 ...

每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...

Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports to watch next week include Tesla (TSLA.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), and Intel (INTC.O) in the US market, as well as China Mobile (00941.HK), BYD Company (01211.HK), and Ping An Insurance (02318.HK) in the Hong Kong market [1] - The complete earnings calendar can be accessed via the Meigang Telecom APP [1] Economic Data - Important economic data to focus on includes China's one-year loan market quoted interest rate as of April 21, and the preliminary value of the US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI [1] - Other significant economic indicators include the US April Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 19, and the unemployment rate in Hong Kong for March [3][4] Federal Reserve Activities - Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak next week, and the Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings and discussions are expected to influence market sentiment and economic outlook [5]

| 欧佩克公布月度 | 扮演的角色发表 | 报告。 | 与一场问答。 | 话。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油市场报告 | 讲话。 | · 10:00:00 | · 07:00:00 | · 2025-04-18 | | (月报具体公布 | ·07:40:00 | 国新办就国民经 | 2025年FOMC票 | 美股休市一日。 | | 时间待定,一般 | 2027年FOMC票 | 济运行情况举行 | 委、堪萨斯联储 | · 2025-04-18 | | 于北京时间18- | 委、亚特兰大联 | 新闻发布会。 | 主席施密德和达 | 旗下贵金属、美 | | 21点左右公 | 储主席博斯蒂克 | | 拉斯联储主席洛 | 国原油、外汇和 | | 布)。 | 就货币政策发表 | | 根就美国经济和 | 股指期货合约全 | | 国家能源局每月 | 讲话。 | | 银行业进行炉边 | 天交易暂停。 | | 15日左右公布全 | ·09:20:00 | | 谈话。 | · 2025-04-18 | | 社会用电量数 | 今日有1000亿 | | 国内成品油将开 | 港股休市一日, ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a weak trend due to recent pullbacks and selling pressure, compounded by a strengthening US dollar index which has reduced bullish factors for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has recently rebounded, indicating a potential strong upward trend, which may exert pressure on gold prices [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has shown a strong bullish trend supported by the 200-day moving average, which could also negatively impact gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, although uncertainty remains due to mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have encountered resistance in the $3050-$3060 range and are currently trading below the 5-day moving average, indicating a strengthening bearish sentiment [4]. - There is a potential for a rebound as gold tests the 10-day moving average support, but further declines are expected until prices stabilize above the 5-day moving average [4].

Domestic Market Analysis - The monetary policy includes a 1.901 billion CNY operation of the Standing Lending Facility in February, with an end balance of 1.3 billion CNY[2] - The future scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation is set to expand to between 800 billion and 1 trillion CNY[2] - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and a deficit ratio of 4%[2] - In February, the Caixin Services PMI was at 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI was at 50.8[2] - Exports grew by 3.4% in January-February, while imports fell by 7.3%[2] International Market Analysis - The U.S. economy showed a slight increase in overall activity since mid-January, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book[3] - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a potential end to the easing cycle[3] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[3] - The Atlanta Fed revised down the U.S. Q1 GDP forecast, expecting a contraction of over 2.8%[3] Strategic Recommendations - A global strategy to buy U.S. dollars (+DXY) and U.S. Treasury bonds (-TU) is recommended[4] - Domestically, a strategic approach to steepen the yield curve (+2×TS2506-1×T2506) is advised[4] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and risks associated with U.S. and European debt are highlighted[5] - The risk of yen appreciation is also noted[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions and forecasts, emphasizing the importance of understanding various economic indicators and their implications for investment strategies [3][4]. Domestic Fundamentals - The report highlights the pressure on enterprises that may be transmitted to the asset side, indicating a potential decline in industrial profits [3]. - It notes the dual mission of consumption, suggesting that consumer spending is crucial for economic recovery [3]. - The article analyzes the unexpected rise in the PMI data, attributing it to underlying economic resilience [3]. Financial Analysis - The report discusses the monetary policy execution report for Q3 2024, indicating a shift towards a "low-price" strategy [3]. - It provides insights into how financial indicators should be tracked following the implementation of this low-price strategy [3]. - The analysis of household debt reveals the ongoing deleveraging process and its implications for the economy [3]. Overseas Insights - The article examines the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, questioning whether it is driven by inflation narratives or deficit concerns [4]. - It evaluates the impact of Trump's new policies on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4]. - The report addresses the discrepancies in the U.S. non-farm payroll data and the stable unemployment rate, suggesting a complex labor market situation [4]. Policy Tracking - The report discusses fiscal support for the real estate sector, indicating hidden incremental policies that may affect market dynamics [4]. - It highlights the expansion of supervisory laws and their potential implications for various sectors [4]. - The article reviews the ongoing reforms and opening-up policies, suggesting a commitment to economic liberalization [4]. Annual and Semi-Annual Reports - The mid-year strategy report for 2024 emphasizes pricing strategies as a key determinant for market performance [3]. - The annual outlook for 2024 discusses the potential for growth and the need for strategic adjustments in investment approaches [3]. - The mid-year strategy report for 2023 focuses on identifying unseen growth opportunities in the current economic landscape [3].

Group 1 - The Spring Festival this year showed characteristics of a significant return home, with passenger turnover volume in January 2025 increasing by 17.6% year-on-year [1][8] - The congestion index in 39 cities recorded 1.80 as of February 28, indicating a 102.0% increase compared to the average of the last two weeks before the festival [9] - The subway passenger volume in the last week of February was 97.1% of the average from the two weeks prior to the festival [9] Group 2 - The industrial sector's operating rates showed mixed results year-on-year, with significant increases in steel and automotive sectors [2][10] - As of February 27-28, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][10] - The operating rate for styrene increased by 18.1 percentage points year-on-year, while PVC and PTA saw declines of 2.2 and 3.9 percentage points respectively [2][11] Group 3 - Construction site resumption rates and labor utilization rates remain below last year's levels, but funding availability has improved year-on-year [3][12] - As of February 27, the resumption rate for 13,532 construction sites was 64.6%, and the labor utilization rate was 61.7% [3][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a recovery in physical workload [3][12] Group 4 - The new visa-free policy has led to a significant increase in international flight operations, with a 24.6% year-on-year increase in average daily international flights in February [4][14] - Inbound tourism generated substantial consumption, with 13.19 million inbound tourists in 2024, a 60.8% increase from 2023, and total consumption reaching $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [4][14] Group 5 - The film box office and audience numbers have significantly rebounded, with a 63.3% increase in average daily box office revenue and a 57.9% increase in average daily audience numbers in January-February [5][15] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached a record high of 9.507 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [5][15] Group 6 - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with a 35.6% year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area in 30 major cities in February [6][16] - The average daily transaction area reached 37.1 million square meters in the last week of February, close to the average of November last year [6][16] Group 7 - Automotive sales showed a mixed performance, with a 4% year-on-year decline in retail sales as of February 23, but a significant 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales [7][17] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 60% year-on-year in February [7][17] Group 8 - Home appliance sales maintained relatively high growth rates, with online sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showing significant year-on-year increases [8][18] - The offline sales of these appliances also demonstrated strong growth, indicating sustained demand supported by favorable policies [8][18] Group 9 - Container throughput continued to rise, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in February, reflecting stable export conditions [9][19] - The overall cargo throughput at domestic ports also showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9][19] Group 10 - The industrial price index has shown fluctuations but remains near the high point since October, with a 1.9% increase from the end of January [10][20] - The prices of energy and building materials have slightly decreased, while prices for non-ferrous metals and chemicals have increased [10][20]