智通财经6月26日电，美联储巴尔金表示，可能需要较长时间来确定贸易政策。 ...

美联储巴尔金：可能需要较长时间才能最终确定贸易政策。 ...

参议院问答环节 提问: 相比去年12月,美联储大幅下调了经济预测,但 上调了失业率和通胀预期。背后的原因是什么? 跟债务 水平是否有关系。 回答:我们对贸易政策带来的长期影响没有看法,但预 测变化部分反映了贸易政策的影响。经济预测和货币政 策跟债务水平无关。财政政策是我们考量的因素之一, 因为可能会推高通胀。 美联储主席鲍威尔出席耆议院听证会 另十数据Vip 美联储主席鲍威尔:通胀预期已较今年四月略有下降。 多 精英会员 乡 显十数据 Kp ケ THE HONORABLE JEROME H. POWELI ■听证会关键看点 每位议员的提问时间为5分钟。 ● 近期的通胀预期指标有所抬升,关税是背后驱动因素 ● 关税的影响将取决于其最终水平 · 避免通胀持续上升的关键在于关税的影响程度、传导 至价格所需时间,以及是否能有效锚定长期通胀预期 ● 美联储处于有利位置,可以耐心等待更多关于经济走 势的明确信号，再决定是否调整政策立场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June economic projections reflect the impact of trade policies to some extent [1] Group 1 - The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that trade policies have influenced economic forecasts [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预测的变化部分反映了贸易政策的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the outcomes of trade policies in July and the future trajectory of geopolitical events may significantly impact the medium-term economic outlook in India [1]

▲ATFX图 走势结构角度看，日线级别，美元指数处于中期空头趋势，最新波段为下跌，但近期又筑底迹象。4月 21日低点97.88点、6月12日低点97.57点、6月24日低点97.67点，三者数值接近，有形成三重底的可能 性。如果在最近两种，美元指数没有破位下跌，反而开始持续反弹（尤其是连续阳线或者大幅度阳 线），则意味着筑底结构有效。不过，从目前的宏观环境来看，美国被牵扯到中东紧张局势之中，可能 再次冲击市场信心，美元指数的反弹缺乏消息面的有力支撑。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明： 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点， 不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更 新内容不会另行通知。 转自：ATFX 美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日22：00，在美国众议院进行半年度货币政策报告证词。鲍威尔提到："经济前 景的不确定性上升，这在很大程度上反映了对贸易政策的担忧。劳动力市场状况大致处于平衡状态，并 与最大就业保持一致。通货膨胀率已从2022年中期的高点大幅回落，但相对于我们2%的长期目标，仍 有所上升。" 综合来看，鲍威尔的发言比较客观，既考虑到了最 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: June manufacturing PMI has dropped into contraction territory, significantly lower than the levels from 2020 to 2024, indicating increased economic downward pressure which may affect related stock sectors [1][2] - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown weak performance, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities falling below the levels of the past three years. The second-hand housing price index continues to decline, signaling increased investment risks in the real estate sector [1][3] - **Automotive Market**: The automotive sector is benefiting from new energy and smart vehicle policies, with retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increasing significantly year-on-year. The full steel tire operating rate is strong, reflecting a high level of prosperity in the automotive industry chain, which is favorable for related company stocks [1][5] - **Steel Industry**: Rebar inventory has been continuously reduced since March, but production remains below the levels of previous years. Although the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has rebounded, overall production performance is mixed, necessitating attention to supply and demand changes in the steel industry and their impact on stock prices [1][6] - **Shipping and Trade**: The shipping index for European futures and the SCFI composite index have shown an upward trend, indicating that freight rates are significantly affected by tariffs. Following the Sino-US Geneva meeting, the index has rebounded quickly, highlighting the potential impact of trade policy changes on the shipping sector [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Activity Indicators**: Recent high-frequency economic activity indicators have shown volatility, with a notable decline since late March but remaining above 1. The PMI index for June has entered a low season, dropping into contraction territory, significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024 [2][9] - **Real Estate Transactions**: The real estate market has seen a decline in transaction volumes, with the performance in 30 major cities weaker than the same period in 2022 to 2024. The downward trend in the second-hand housing price index and accelerating decline in transaction volumes indicate rising investment risks [3][9] - **Automotive Sales Growth**: As of mid-June, retail sales of passenger cars have increased by 23% year-on-year, while wholesale sales have risen by 38%. The full steel tire operating rate stands at 65.48%, which is stronger than the levels from 2019 to 2024, second only to the situation in 2020 [5][9] - **Steel Production Trends**: Rebar inventory has been consistently reduced since March, with production levels lower than those in 2022 to 2024. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has shown a rebound, reaching a near-high point in recent years [6][9] - **Trade Recovery Indicators**: The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown signs of recovery, with the Los Angeles port's import container throughput continuing to grow. The positive performance of South Korean export data indicates a revival in global trade activities, which may boost the performance of related logistics companies [4][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: The overall macroeconomic situation is mixed, with the high-frequency economic activity index rebounding after hitting a low in May, but the EPMI has weakened due to seasonal factors and is significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024. The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive market is recovering steadily, and production indicators in the steel industry are showing signs of stabilization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. current account deficit surged to $450.2 billion in Q1, significantly higher than the revised $312 billion from the previous quarter, marking a record high [1] - The increase in the current account deficit is primarily attributed to a substantial rise in the trade deficit, driven by fluctuating trade policies and tariffs [1] Trade Data Summary - Exports rose by $21.1 billion to reach $539 billion, while imports skyrocketed by $158.2 billion to $1 trillion [1] - The surge in imports was mainly fueled by "non-monetary gold" and consumer goods, particularly pharmaceuticals and dental products [1] - The increase in gold imports blurred the lines between ordinary goods and investment products [1] - The growth in exports was largely driven by civil aircraft and computer-related products [1]