Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the Japanese yen exchange rate and the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential has significantly changed over the past six months, shifting from "interest rate changes driving exchange rate changes" to "yen depreciation leading to rising interest rates" [2][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - As of January 6, Japan's long-term interest rate was 2.095%, while the U.S. long-term interest rate was 4.17%, resulting in a Japan-U.S. interest rate differential of 2.075%, which has narrowed by over 0.8 percentage points from approximately 2.9% six months ago [4]. - The actual interest rates, calculated by subtracting the breakeven inflation rate from the nominal yield, show Japan's rate at approximately 0.32% and the U.S. at about 1.9%, leading to a narrowing of the actual interest differential from around 2.1% to 1.58% over the past six months [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Despite the narrowing interest rate differential, there has been a lack of increased demand for the yen, with the exchange rate hovering around 156 yen per dollar. This is attributed to concerns that the Bank of Japan may lag in raising interest rates, leading to simultaneous increases in domestic rates and yen depreciation [7]. - The depreciation of the yen has raised import prices, increasing domestic inflation expectations, which in turn has led the market to anticipate that the Bank of Japan will be forced to raise rates [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is speculation about whether the previous relationship that supported yen appreciation and dollar depreciation will be restored. Analysts suggest that if concerns about the Bank of Japan's delayed response diminish and inflation stabilizes, the linkage between the yen exchange rate and the interest rate differential may re-emerge [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend with both price and trading volume increasing, while the bond market sentiment is weak [1]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high with heavy trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in IC contracts before the Two Sessions [1]. - In the stock index options market, the trading volume increased significantly, and there was an obvious phenomenon of rising price and volatility. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads [2]. - Regarding treasury bond futures, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend on Tuesday, rising 1.5% with heavy volume. Non - ferrous metals and non - bank finance led the gains, and the CSI 500 performed better among broad - based indices. The rally was driven by positive external sentiment, early entry of institutional funds, and the resonance between the commodity and stock markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in IC contracts [1][7]. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was 4.71 points, 0.04 points, 21.86 points, and 10.10 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 8.45 points, 2.38 points, 8.26 points, and 4.78 points. The spread between current - month and next - month contracts and the total positions also changed [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued to rise significantly, and the trading volume of the options market reached 139.52 billion yuan, a 42.38% increase from the previous day. The game and chasing intensity at the options end increased significantly, with an obvious rise in the call trading volume ratio and an average increase of 2.05% in the implied volatility index. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads and turn to a wait - and - see attitude for short - selling strategies [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The T main contract showed a volatile trend throughout the day. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose, and the DR001 rate slightly rose to around 1.26%. The A - share market's continuous improvement affected the bond market sentiment. The central bank's bond - buying scale in December was 50 billion yuan, falling short of expectations. Investors need to pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and institutional investors can play for rebounds but should wait for a reversal [3][8][10]. - The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Operational suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focusing on basis widening, and expecting the yield curve to remain steep [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides an economic calendar for the current week, including indicators such as China's December SPGI Services PMI, China's December foreign exchange reserves, the US December ADP employment change, the Eurozone November unemployment rate, etc., along with their previous values, forecast values, and some yet - to - be - announced values [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The 2026 work meeting of the People's Bank of China emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and providing financial support for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [12]. - A Fed governor said that subsequent economic data would support the view that interest rate cuts are appropriate, and the Fed should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented [13][17][29].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Demand Expansion - Monetary policy can expand domestic demand by changing the interaction behaviors of countless micro-individuals, encouraging businesses to invest and residents to buy homes and consume [1][7] - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates [1][14] - Fiscal policy complements monetary policy by increasing government spending and leveraging its multiplier effect to expand domestic demand [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Examples - Since the 1990s, central banks have been the main force behind policies to expand domestic demand, often relying solely on monetary policy [1] - During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve, under Bernanke, lowered the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 0.25%, a reduction of 500 basis points, which led to a significant rebound in the S&P 500 index [3] - Japan's central bank, under Kuroda, adopted aggressive monetary policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates, which resulted in a substantial increase in the Nikkei 225 index and a recovery in housing prices [5][6] Group 3: Current Economic Challenges in China - China's economy is currently facing challenges of insufficient demand, with private fixed asset investment experiencing negative growth for the first time since 2005, at -0.4% in 2023 [12][13] - Consumer confidence remains low despite some recovery in capital markets and a slight improvement in expectations following proactive counter-cyclical policies [12] - The attractiveness of private investment is low, with the difference between return on assets (ROA) and long-term financing rates at only 0.2% in 2024, the worst level in 20 years [13] Group 4: Mechanisms for Stimulating Investment and Consumption - To stimulate investment and consumption, the central bank must clearly communicate future inflation targets and further reduce policy interest rates, making investments and home purchases more attractive [14] - The relationship between interest rates and housing prices is significant; even a small decrease in interest rates can create substantial upward pressure on housing prices [10][11] - For businesses, lower interest rates reduce financing costs, while for residents, they influence the decision to buy or rent, impacting overall demand [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold enters 2026 with strong historical upward momentum, despite being labeled "overbought" in 2024-2025, and the market's positioning remains reasonable, with gold showing the smallest pullback among precious metals [1][3] - The primary driving logic for gold's rise in 2024-2025 is the low real yields caused by political uncertainty in the U.S., which is expected to continue into 2026 due to high government spending pushing inflation expectations and a dovish interest rate environment [3] - Central bank purchases are a long-term key support for gold prices, with global reserve allocation imbalances leading to accelerated buying from central banks in 2024-2025, particularly from countries like China and Turkey [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent events in Venezuela, are significant catalysts for gold prices, as risk aversion drives funds towards gold [3] - The emergence of AI narratives has injected industrial demand into the precious metals sector, potentially offsetting weak jewelry consumption and reinforcing the trend of gold prices moving in tandem with the Nasdaq index [3] - Potential risks include unexpected hawkish moves from the Federal Reserve or a surge in long-term yields, but current market expectations lean towards easing, providing a buffer for gold prices [3] Group 3 - Monthly gold prices maintain a bullish channel, but the RSI is at historical highs, indicating a need for time correction; weekly analysis shows fluctuations around the 10-week moving average [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 4516-4544, while support levels are at 4230-4274 and 4115, with an extreme level at 4000 [4] - The strategy suggests high selling and low buying within the range, with a breakout above 4400 targeting 4516-4544, and a drop below 4230 indicating weakness [4]

与美联储的政策摇摆不同，瑞士央行则坚守政策稳定性。继2025年连续两次维持关键政策利率在0%不 变后，路透社调查显示，绝大多数经济学家预计瑞士央行在2026全年仍将维持利率在零水平。尽管瑞士 2025年11月CPI同比降至0%的政策目标下限，央行还将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，但明确表 态回归负利率的门槛极高，因负利率存在"不良副作用"。值得注意的是，瑞士央行在2025年三季度曾买 入7500万瑞士法郎外汇以减缓瑞郎升值节奏，但干预力度有限，未改变瑞郎的强势格局。 经济基本面与贸易环境的变化，进一步强化了美瑞汇率的分化格局。瑞士经济展现出较强韧性，2025年 三季度GDP虽受制药行业拖累收缩，但制造业和服务业增长形成有效对冲，央行预计全年增速略低于 1.5%。更关键的是，2025年11月美瑞贸易协议生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%大幅降至15%，显著缓 解出口压力，为瑞郎提供基本面支撑。同时，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标升至103.4，创下自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，预示经济前景向好。而美元端则承压明显，2025年美元指数累计下跌约 9%，2026年1月6日亚洲交易时段，美元指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is strengthening against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA maintained its interest rate at 3.60% in December, signaling the end of its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed has lowered rates three times to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the RBA may raise rates nearly twice in 2026, while the Fed is anticipated to lower rates only twice [1] - The divergence in monetary policy is expected to support the AUD as capital flows towards AUD-denominated assets [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The RBA has raised its inflation forecast, predicting a CPI of 3.7% by June 2026, with the governor indicating no further easing, which sends a hawkish signal [1] - The Australian government has revised its GDP growth forecast upward, indicating improvements in non-mining investment and marginally better fiscal conditions [1] - However, the AUD remains vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which is a key export [1] Group 3: Short-term Volatility and Predictions - Short-term volatility in the AUD is expected due to Australian inflation data and US non-farm payroll reports, with potential for significant fluctuations [2] - Institutions are optimistic about the AUD, with forecasts suggesting it could rise to 0.75 by year-end according to the National Australia Bank, and to 0.70 according to Westpac [2] - Key resistance and support levels for the AUD are identified at 0.6750 and 0.6710, respectively, with long-term trends dependent on the RBA's rate hike pace and commodity prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market showed a muted performance amid heightened focus on upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly the December non-farm payroll report expected on Friday, which is anticipated to provide confidence to investors [1] Economic Data Expectations - Economists forecast that the U.S. economy will add 73,000 jobs in December, an increase from 64,000 in November, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [1] - The ADP private sector employment report will be released on Wednesday, although it is not considered a reliable predictor of the official non-farm data [1] Market Reactions - Current interest rates and credit markets are primarily influenced by U.S. economic growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, making the employment report more significant than the situation in Venezuela [2] - Oil prices fluctuated, with Brent crude hovering around $61 per barrel, while the bond market experienced slight sell-offs, leading to a rise in yields across various maturities [3] Venezuela Situation Impact - The Venezuelan domestic situation remains tense following the arrest of leader Maduro, but the market has not observed significant disruptions akin to those in the Middle East, nor has there been a substantial rise in oil prices or global supply interruptions [3] - The potential impact of U.S. intervention in Venezuela on the market could manifest through oil price changes affecting inflation expectations and the federal budget deficit, but these effects remain uncertain [3] Historical Context - Some strategists draw parallels between the current situation and past U.S. interventions in Panama and Chile, but it is deemed premature to conclude whether there will be fundamental changes in Venezuela's government structure or if the U.S. will adopt a more aggressive intervention strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Western Hemisphere have led to a surge in risk aversion in global financial markets, driving strong demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices rose by 2.7% to $4,448.20 per ounce, reflecting the market's quick pricing ability in response to risk events [1] - In early 2026, the gold market demonstrated strong resilience near historical highs, with a record price of $4,549.71 per ounce achieved in 2025, marking an annual increase of over 60% [1] - Recent price recoveries indicate solid bottom support in the market despite previous profit-taking phases [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The direct actions taken in the region have disrupted the existing power balance, prompting investors to assess the long-term impacts on global energy supply chains and market stability in Latin America [1] - The geopolitical premium is expected to lead to a reassessment of risk weights for assets in the affected regions, particularly due to the large oil reserves and fragile supply conditions [1] - Any disturbances in this area could escalate into supply anxieties in the energy market, which may positively influence precious metals through inflation expectations [1] Group 3: Fundamental Drivers of Gold Strength - The strengthening of gold is supported by deeper fundamental drivers, including expectations for a shift to looser monetary policies in the second half of the year and ongoing increases in gold reserves by central banks worldwide [2] - Concerns over global economic slowdown are enhancing the long-term investment value of gold [2] - The combination of risk-averse buying and macroeconomic policy cycles is likely to push gold prices towards historical peaks, positioning it as a key asset for investors facing global uncertainties [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 1 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. —Nikola Tesla 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期》 2026-01-06 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 57 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 56 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-15 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 55 期：美联储继续降 息，同时重启扩表——12 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 ...

1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉发动军事行动并宣称"执掌其政务"，这一地缘风暴迅速席卷全球金融市场，引发了该地区可能会长期动荡的担忧。同时，特朗普发 表"美国需要格陵兰岛，以及指责哥伦比亚总统佩特罗生产毒品，并威胁小心点"的言论。黄金作为传统的避险资产，今天开盘后直接高开高走，重回4400美 元上方， 南美地区局势的后续变化，将从避险、通胀预期和美元信用等多方面对黄金构成支撑。 美国频繁以军事和金融手段干预他国，特别是此次的单边干预行为，使得全球对美元的信用进一步削弱，更多的国家在能源结算中尝试使用非美货币，加速 全球货币的多元化。美元作为黄金的定价货币，其信用弱化将提升黄金的配置价值，各国对战略储备资产的重视程度将再上一个台阶，黄金作为终极储备资 产的地位进一步强化。 地缘引发避险 与通胀形成共振 此次入侵事件类似于1989年入侵巴拿马的事件，属于美国在拉美地区的军事干预，结束了马杜罗的长期统治，使得委内瑞拉的国内局势陷入不确定性。委内 瑞拉拥有丰富的原油资源和地缘战略位置，这一事件的影响将长期存在，全球投资者正在密切关注事态的发展动向。 美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动，导致委内瑞拉本就不多的原油出口瘫痪，据船舶追踪网站 ...