Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, highlighting the pressure exerted by Trump on Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates and the potential counterproductive effects of this strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Independence vs. Political Pressure - The conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve represents a fundamental clash between institutional independence and populism, questioning whether expert institutions can manage economic policy better than elected officials [2]. - Trump has called for a significant 3% rate cut, which would mark a radical shift and disrupt traditional economic models, although this may be more political rhetoric than a feasible policy [2]. - Current futures markets indicate a near-zero probability of a rate cut next week, with a 60% chance of a cut in September [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Real Costs - Market data supports the argument that political pressure on interest rate policy leads to increased inflation volatility, causing investors to demand higher compensation [3]. - Following Trump's call for a 3% rate cut, the 10-year Treasury yield premium rose to 0.84%, up from 0.6% after a similar attack in April, indicating a market response to political intervention [3]. Group 3: Misunderstanding of Mortgage Rates - Trump’s assertion that high interest rates are preventing home purchases is misleading, as standard 30-year fixed mortgage rates are more closely tied to long-term Treasury yields than to the Fed's overnight rates [5]. - Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the overnight rate has decreased by 1%, while the 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 6.2% to 6.75%, illustrating the complex relationship between these rates [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns and Policy Considerations - The article notes a divergence between the Trump administration and the Fed regarding the economic impact of tariffs, with the Fed taking a cautious approach due to past inflation misjudgments [6]. - Economic indicators supporting a rate cut include minimal inflation impact from tariffs, slightly above-target inflation, weak private sector hiring, slowing wage growth, and rising default rates on loans [6]. Group 5: Professional Justification for Rate Cuts - Concerns are raised about Trump's pressure tactics, suggesting that while there are valid reasons for the Fed to cut rates faster than expected, these should not be articulated by the President [7]. - The article advises the Trump administration to allow market and professional assessments based on economic data to justify rate cuts, rather than continuing to undermine the Fed's independence [7].

2025.07. 24 本文字数：1454，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 24日，欧洲央行（下称"欧央行"）宣布三大关键利率维持不变——存款利率为2.00%，主要再融资利 率为2.15%，边际贷款利率为2.40%，结束此前连续七次降息的进程。 该决议声明显示，最新经济和通胀数据"大致符合此前评估"，目前国内价格压力持续缓解，工资增速 也出现放缓，表明前期政策调整已部分传导至实体经济。欧央行重申将继续采取"依赖数据、逐次评 估"的方式决定未来利率路径，强调"不会预设特定方向"。 在随后新闻发布会上，欧央行行长拉加德表示，当前利率水平"处于合理区间"，货币政策正在为实现 2%的中期通胀目标发挥支持作用。她同时表示，虽然家庭消费受到就业和实际收入改善的支撑， 但"欧元走强和更高关税可能使企业投资面临更多障碍"。 德意志银行首席欧洲经济学家沃尔（Mark Wall）认为，欧央行此举"释放出更为谨慎的信号"，显示 政策层目前更倾向于等待局势明朗后再行决策。他表示，"只要外部风险仍未解除，欧央行就没有必 要急于推进新一轮宽松。" 荷兰AFS集团研究总监阿恩·佩蒂梅萨斯（Arne Petimezas）亦表 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, ending a series of seven consecutive rate cuts, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current interest rates are in a reasonable range and that monetary policy is supporting the goal of achieving a 2% medium-term inflation target [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the ECB is likely to reassess the situation in September, with more complete data and tariff developments providing a basis for policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The ECB has warned that external risks remain high, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and exchange rate fluctuations, which could hinder corporate investment [2] - Lagarde noted that stronger euro and higher tariffs are expected to make corporate investment more challenging, reflecting market concerns about the outlook for recent US-EU trade negotiations [2] - The ECB is adopting a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals before making further policy decisions, as indicated by various analysts [2] Group 3 - The eurozone economy shows resilience driven by domestic demand, supported by a strong labor market, rising real incomes, and robust private sector balance sheets [3] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable at around 2%, with core inflation pressures easing and wage growth slowing, reducing the risk of price increases [3] - Analysts believe that the current interest rate levels provide space for the ECB to remain observant, with expectations that rates will remain stable until autumn unless significant changes in inflation or growth prospects occur [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trading logic involves the spread of anti - involution across all commodities, the shift from deflation to inflation expectations in the macro - economy, and the narrative of commodities exiting the low - price cycle. Whether prices continue to follow the macro - logic or return to industrial reality depends on inflation transmission in the industry chain and terminal consumption capacity [4][14]. - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to the expectation of anti - involution spreading upstream and the bet on Jiangxi mine shutdowns. Attention should be paid to potential "expectation gaps" [5][36]. - Speculative demand - driven price fluctuations in the commodity market show a "spring effect", including three stages: macro - narrative igniting speculative enthusiasm, supply elasticity lag leading to over - price increase, and expectation falsification with a stampede - style decline [17]. Summary by Directory First Part: Preface Summary Trading Logic - The current trading logic includes the spread of anti - involution, the shift from deflation to inflation expectations, and the end of the low - price cycle for commodities. After price increases, whether to continue the macro - logic or return to industrial reality depends on inflation transmission and terminal consumption [4][14]. Market Outlook - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to anti - involution expectations and bets on mine shutdowns. If mines are shut down without a license, prices can rise; if the mine risk is removed, the over - supply problem may worsen, and prices may hit new lows [5]. Strategy Recommendation - For unilateral trading, follow the trend in the short term as there are no signs of a trend reversal. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell put options [6]. Second Part: Review of Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate main contract 2509 has risen 27% from the lowest 58400 to the highest 74680. After reaching around 65,000, the upward movement was driven by the strong expectations of the market, with 100,000 more lots added in 7 days from July 14, and a gain of over 15% [11]. Third Part: Speculative Demand Driving Price Fluctuations First Stage: Macro - Narrative Igniting Speculative Enthusiasm - Speculative demand is initiated by macro - factors such as policy changes and geopolitical events. Speculators hoard goods based on the expectation of future supply shortages, leading to a situation where speculative demand far exceeds actual consumption demand. Prices rise sharply, and the spot premium structure expands, driving futures - cash arbitrage. Technical signals show a strong upward trend [18][22]. Second Stage: Supply Elasticity Lag Leading to Over - Price Increase - The price increase is not based on real supply - demand improvement. At high prices, there are structural contradictions, with actual consumption demand being suppressed. New production capacity is gradually released, but speculators still hold positions based on macro - narratives. Any "expectation gap" may lead to a trend reversal [23]. Third Stage: Expectation Falsification with a Stampede - Style Decline - The end of speculative demand is due to factors such as policy falsification or speculative capital profit - taking. When the market sentiment reverses and the supply peak arrives, there will be a stampede - style decline [24]. Lithium Carbonate's Current Stage - Lithium carbonate is in the initial stage of the first and second phases, and it is necessary to observe when the third stage starts. The proportion change of the hoarding group can be used to judge the stage. High - price consumption suppression is affected by multiple factors [25][26]. Fourth Part: Impact of Anti - Involution on Lithium's Upstream and Downstream Anti - Involution Mainly Targets New - Energy Vehicles - Anti - involution in the lithium - battery industry chain mainly targets new - energy vehicles. The policies aim to improve inventory turnover and eliminate false sales, but stimulating consumption may face challenges [27]. No Anti - Involution Policies for the Upstream - There are currently no anti - involution policies for the upstream. The mining license issues in Qinghai and Yichun have led to market expectations of upstream anti - involution, but this may be unfounded. Mining license problems are mainly related to regulatory actions [28][30]. Fifth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Supply Focus and Market Disagreements - The disagreement over lithium carbonate prices above 65,000 mainly concerns whether large mines in Jiangxi can renew their licenses on time. If 8 large mines in Yichun stop production, it is estimated to affect 75,000 tons of LCE production in the second half of the year. The renewal of the Jiaxiaowo mine's license is a key focus, and the shutdown of two Qinghai salt - lakes may affect 20,000 tons of LCE production [32][34]. Uncertainty in the Second - Half Balance Sheet - In July, there was a surplus of 500 tons. From August, there is high uncertainty. If mines stop production, there may be a large supply gap. High prices will stimulate production from domestic and overseas mines, but they cannot fully compensate for the short - term reduction [35]. Trading Logic and Strategy Suggestions - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to anti - involution expectations and bets on mine shutdowns. Pay attention to "expectation gaps". If mines shut down, prices may rise; if the risk is removed, prices may hit new lows [36].

欧洲央行拉加德：通胀预期得到牢固锚定。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：通胀预期依然稳固。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 7 月 15 日-7 月 24 日，债市面临调整压力。当前债市对价格敏感，包括股票为代表的资产 价格，以及各类"反内卷"和供给侧改革相关的商品期货现货价格指数。物价改善的方式之一， 是改善当前的融资挤占问题，使得产出缺口回正；物价改善的另一种方式，是为价格的快速上 涨找到需求方，内部加杠杆、外部出口改善。债市对货币流动性及基本面不太敏感，这两点在 未来一段时间可能都不构成债市交易主线。关注通胀变化及主要整改行业的物价传导情况，观 察 10 年期国债收益率在 1.75%-1.8%之间是否出现拐点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近期（7 月 15 日-7 月 23 日，下同）债市面临 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美日达成协议，美欧接近达成15%关税协议，金价冲高回落；美国三大 股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收 益率涨3.58个基点报4.380%；美元指数跌0.15%报97.20，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1520；COMEX黄金期货跌1.34%报3397.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注欧央行利率决议和行长讲话、日欧美7月PMI、美欧盟委员会主席 冯德莱恩访华。美日达成协议，美欧接近达成15%关税协议，国内商品情绪降温，金 价冲高回落。沪金溢价扩大至1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储举行7月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议之前，摩根士丹利发布了其货币政策预测。纽 约联储在每次FOMC会议前收集的有关货币政策和经济指标的市场预期调查。在最新的报告中，大摩简要概述了其回 答。 大摩预计美联储将维持其对经济的评估——"经济活动以'稳健的速度'增长"、劳动力市场"稳健"以及通胀"略高"。大 摩还预计声明将再次强调美联储"关注"其双重使命的两方面所面临的风险。 尽管净出口数据受到了影响，但近期的指标显示美国经济活动仍以稳健的速度持续增长。失业率保持在低位，劳动力 市场状况依然良好。通胀率则略有上升。委员会目标是实现充分就业以及 2%的通胀率(这是长期目标)。经济前景的不 确定性有所降低，但仍处于较高水平。委员会密切关注其双重使命的两方面所面临的风险。 经济增长仍"保持稳健步伐"。对于第二季度的国内生产总值(GDP)，大摩预计年化季率为 2.2%。亚特兰大联储 GDPNow模型显示第二季度 GDP增速为 2.4%，而纽约联储的Nowcast模型结果为 1.7%。 劳动力市场仍"保持良好状态"。就业人数有所放缓，但失业率仍保持低位——与 12 个月前相比未发生变化。 通胀 ...

日本央行副行长内田真一：预计在中长期通胀预期再次加速之前，通胀预期将经历一段放缓期。 ...