智通财经记者 | 杜萌 吕凡 "抢到消费券，排队买黄金"，在上海的豫园商圈，抢到"璀璨金喜大豫园"消费券的年轻人正大排长龙，只为现场买黄金。 "最高满10000减1000元，相当于打九折，简直太划算了"。早晨六点就在中国黄金上海旗舰店排队的小文告诉智通财经记者，从今年年初开始，她就在陆续 购置黄金，"小跌小买，大跌大买"，现在已经差不多购置了十几克的金饰品了。 今年以来，作为避险资产金价呈现"过山车"行情。年初至5月12日，国际地缘风险升温导致金价狂飙，伦敦金从2980.08美元/盎司飙升至3423.77美元/盎司， 国内金价同步涨至825.80元/克。5月12日以后，随着全球贸易摩擦的缓和，金价如高台跳水般急速"下跌"，COMEX盘中一度跌至3211.2美元/盎司。 从黄金ETF的区间资金流入来看，和国际金价的走势呈现正相关。国际金价的"暴走行情"是资金入场的直接导火索。ETF凭借交易便捷、实时跟踪金价的特 性，成为散户"追涨"首选。 Wind数据显示，从4月9日至5月12日，华安黄金ETF（518880.SH）区间净流入达131.28亿元，易方达黄金ETF（159934.SZ）净流入71.15亿元，博时黄 ...

特朗普的最新表态表明，俄乌冲突短期内难以结束，这可能进一步加剧全球市场的避险情绪。黄金作为 传统的避险资产，通常在不确定性增加时受到投资者青睐。此外，特朗普政府暂停对乌克兰的军事援助 并寻求改善美俄关系的策略，可能导致美元指数波动。 【基本面解析】 周五，美国劳工统计局将公布备受关注的5月非农就业数据，市场预期将新增13万个岗位，失业率维持 在4.2%不变。 周三，有"小非农"之称的ADP就业报告显示，美国民间增加的职位是两年来最少。该报告可能是负面非 农就业报告的前奏。 北京时间周五（6月6日），亚欧交易时段，周四公布的失业救济人数数据令人失望，致使美元再度承压 遭抛售，美元指数于略低于99.00处企稳。美国非农就业人数预期将增加130,000人。白银价格则在2012 年2月以来的高位附近维持坚挺态势。市场在翘首以盼的美国5月就业报告出炉前保持观望，该报告涵盖 非农就业人数、失业率以及工资通胀等关键数据。当日早些时候，欧洲经济日历将公布第一季度国内生 产总值（GDP）与就业变化数据的修订值，以及4月份零售销售数据的修正情况。 今日白银价格最新查询（2025年6月6日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | ...

周五亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，现交投于3360美元/盎司附近。周四金价冲高后回落，盘中一度突破3400美元关口至3403.28美元/盎司（近四周新高）， 但受中美领导人通话释放贸易缓和信号影响，最终收跌0.6%至3352.65美元/盎司。尽管短期回调，黄金年内仍累计上涨约28%，凸显其在全球不确定性中的 避险价值。 美国经济数据释放矛盾信号，非农报告成关键变量 当前市场聚焦两大经济数据： 1. 初请失业金数据引发经济放缓担忧 美国劳工部数据显示，上周初请失业金人数增至24.7万人（预期23.5万人），连续第二周上升，暗示劳动力市场可能降温。 第一季度工人生产率下降、劳动力成本上升，叠加特朗普关税政策推高企业成本，为黄金提供潜在支撑（经济不确定性通常利多避险资产）。 2. 非农就业报告即将揭晓 6月6日将公布5月非农数据，市场预计新增就业13万人（低于4月的17.7万人），失业率或稳定在4.2%。 非农对黄金的影响：若数据弱于预期，可能强化美联储降息预期，利多金价；反之则可能打压黄金。低利率环境下，非孳息资产黄金往往表现强势。 美联储政策博弈：降息呼声VS通胀风险 1. 特朗普施压降息，美联储内部态度分化 5 ...

快来测测吧！ 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 明天又到了一年一度的高考日了， 小编在这里提前祝各位高考学子： 旗开得胜，金榜题名！ 不过，今天不光是送祝福， 小编还给基民们也准备 " 2025 年 私募 全国考卷 " ， 你到底是"合格投资者潜力股"还是"私募圈扫地僧"呢？ 2025年 私募 市场招生全国统一考试 1、 幻方量化于 2025年正式发布的AI大模型全称是什么?（ 点此查看答案解析 ） A、DeepSeek-V3 考前须知 以下选择题共15小题，每题10分，总分150分： 评分标准参考： 点击文中蓝字查看'答案'解析！并 免费领取 《私募100问》、《私募红宝书》pdf电子版、《2025林园最新观点合集报告【附团队成员、持仓等】》 等高考大 礼包！ 转发测试好友能得几分？预祝旗开得胜！ ✓ 120分以上：私募圈扫地僧 ✓ 90分：合格投资者潜力股 ✓ 70分：急需恶补《私募100问》 ✓ ＜70分：保护钱包，远离高风险投资 7、 今年以来， 全球经济和地缘政治不确定性增加，黄金作为避险资产成为不少投资者的 "心头好"。 以下哪位基金经理 2025年一季度加仓了 黄金 ...

Market Overview - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and trade tensions between the US and China, with gold prices experiencing a high of $3403.28 per ounce before retreating to $3352.65 due to easing trade concerns [1][2] - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 28%, indicating strong demand amid global uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to show an addition of 125,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2% [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) for May is projected to indicate rising inflation, partly due to tariff effects, which could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2] Technical Analysis - Gold's recent trading pattern shows a high volatility with a potential downward trend if it breaks below the 10-day moving average, currently positioned around $3333 [3][5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3372 and $3379, while support levels are noted at $3339 and $3333 [5][6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold at $3370-$3373 with a target of $3350-$3330, and long positions at $3300-$3305 with a target of $3320-$3340 [7] - Emphasis on risk management and the importance of stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on global supply chains and highlights the adjustments made by top quantitative funds on Wall Street, particularly in gold and copper futures [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ADP employment report showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 37,000 jobs added in May, the lowest in two years, while JOLTS job openings remained high at 7.391 million, indicating a hiring freeze rather than layoffs [3] - LME copper inventories are rapidly declining, suggesting traders are preemptively shipping to avoid risks, while U.S. copper inventories are accumulating, reaching a near five-year high [4] - CME interest rate futures indicate a 95.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a 28.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [5] Group 2: Market Expectations - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release crucial employment data, with expectations of 126,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [6] - Three potential scenarios for the employment data are outlined: - Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (25% probability) with job additions over 130,000 and unemployment at or below 4.2% - Scenario 2: Data meets expectations (40% probability) with job additions between 110,000 and 130,000 and unemployment at 4.2% - Scenario 3: Data is unexpectedly weak (35% probability) with job additions below 100,000 and unemployment above 4.2% [8][9] Group 3: Trading Strategies - During the data release, volatility is expected to increase, and traders should be cautious of conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials [7] - A focus on hedging strategies involving risk assets like copper and crude oil against safe-haven assets like gold is recommended [7] - Historical patterns suggest that the market may experience significant volatility, as seen in previous non-farm payroll nights [9]

近一年来，黄金在全球投资市场掀起热潮，成为对抗通胀与地缘风险的核心资产。自2023年底国际金价格涨破每盎司2000美元大关后持续飙升，今年3月 站上3000美元历史高位，4月22日更一举突破3500美元。尽管近期出现技术性回调，且多次跌破3300美元关口，但市场普遍认为，黄金的长期上涨逻辑未 变，投资者应以"配置思维"取代短期交易，掌握黄金的避险属性与资产配置价值。 黄金作为一种资产类别，历来引发激烈的分歧意见——从视其为对抗通胀的终极避险工具的人，到那些根本不会将其纳入投资组合的人。尽管如此，有一 点无可置疑，那就是黄金屡创新高。 正如下图所示，黄金的回报大幅跑赢美国股市，在过去三年中，其收益是IA Global sector的两倍多。 （备注：IA Global sector是由英国投资协会定义的一个基金分类，全称通常为：Investment Association Global Sector。该分类下的基金主要投资于全球各地 的公司股票，即不局限于某一个国家或地区。它为投资者提供了一个衡量"全球股票型基金"表现的比较基准。） 不过，即便是在黄金投资专家之间，对于黄金价格上涨的动因以及涨势是否可持续，仍存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by economic instability in the U.S., particularly due to unexpected contraction in the services sector and disappointing employment data, alongside geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, marking the first drop below the 50 threshold since June 2024, indicating contraction in the services sector, which constitutes two-thirds of the U.S. economy [3]. - The ADP national employment report showed only 37,000 jobs added in May, significantly below the expected 110,000, representing the smallest increase in over two years [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The combination of shrinking services and weak ADP employment data has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with prices reaching as high as $1,384 per ounce following the data release [3]. - Market sentiment is leaning towards a potential rise in gold prices, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll report could further influence Federal Reserve monetary policy and support gold prices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll report on June 6 for insights into the labor market and potential implications for Federal Reserve actions, which could either bolster or pressure gold prices depending on the report's strength [4]. - The European Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cut and ongoing international trade tensions are also expected to provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the US Dollar this year, presenting a challenge for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to balance currency stability and economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Swiss Franc Appreciation - Global geopolitical risks have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc being a primary target due to Switzerland's stable political environment and neutral status [3]. - The weakness of the US Dollar, driven by disappointing economic data and a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, has created favorable conditions for the Swiss Franc's appreciation [3]. - Switzerland's low inflation rate and a long-standing non-intervention policy provide a solid foundation for the Swiss Franc, making it an attractive choice for investors looking for stable currencies [3]. Group 2: Dilemma of Central Bank Intervention - The SNB faces a core contradiction where the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, while reflecting market confidence, could harm export competitiveness, particularly affecting manufacturing and tourism sectors [4]. - Traditional tools for currency intervention, such as direct market operations and interest rate adjustments, may have limited effectiveness in the current complex global liquidity environment [4]. - The timing and magnitude of intervention are critical considerations for the SNB, as premature or excessive actions could signal a lack of confidence in the economy, while delayed interventions may exacerbate exchange rate misalignments [4].

从黄金1小时图走势来看，日线级别维持多头强势震荡上行格局，翁老师建议日内继续以区间低多策略 为主。当前市场处于震荡整理阶段，短期存在技术性冲高回落压力。操作上翁富豪建议以短线多单为 主，重点把握顺势低多的交易逻辑。需重点关注上方3390-3400阻力区间，以及下方3340-3330支撑区 间。具体策略翁富豪建议回调至3348-3353区域可择机尝试多单。 周三（6月4日）国际金价上涨0.56%，主要受多重因素驱动。美国ISM非制造业PMI降至49.9、ADP就业 数据不及预期，拖累市场信心，资金涌入黄金避险，金价盘中触及3384.55美元/盎司。美元指数下跌 0.5%、10年期美债收益率回落，进一步支撑金价。特朗普政府将钢铁和铝关税提高一倍，加剧全球供 应链担忧，强化黄金避险属性。美联储9月降息概率升至77%，ADP数据和通胀压力强化降息预期。市 场聚焦6月6日非农报告，其结果将影响美联储政策预期及金价走势。欧洲央行决议、美国初请失业金人 数等也将持续影响黄金市场。 1.黄金建议回调3348-3353区域做多，止损在3340，短期看3365-3375，目标3400 操作策略： 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一 ...