剔除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，也未能达到分析师预期的3.0%。这一意外的通胀降温为市场提供了对美联储进一步降息的预期，尤其是在 2026年，部分经济学家甚至预计美联储将加大宽松政策。 随着美国经济放缓和通胀压力减轻，金融市场对未来降息的预期愈加浓烈，降息的可能性已被市场广泛计入。利率下降将直接降低持有黄金的机会成本，为 黄金这种零收益的贵金属提供支撑，进一步强化了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 周五亚洲早盘时段，金价跌破4350美元关口，贵金属整体小幅走低。 从市场交易动态来看，此次短期下行主要源于短线期货交易者的获利了结操作，以及部分弱势多头的平仓行为，属于短期交易行为引发的波动调整。 根据最新的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，11月美国CPI同比降至2.7%，远低于市场预期的3.1%。 美国与委内瑞拉之间的紧张局势持续升温，委内瑞拉政府已下令海军护送载有石油产品的船只离港，这一举动可能加剧与美国发生冲突的风险。特朗普政府 曾对该国石油行业实施"封锁"，若局势进一步恶化，可能会促使市场对黄金等避险资产的需求激增。 此外，强劲的工业和投资需求同样为黄金提供了支撑。随着全球经济的不确定性增大， ...

12月17日，周二美国交易时段内，受最新公布的复杂经济数据影响，黄金与白银市场呈现出较强的韧 性。Mhmarkets迈汇观察到，尽管金银在隔夜市场及数据发布前一度表现疲软，但随着报告显示美国经 济正处于一种既不过热也不急剧冷却的平衡状态，避险资产随即抹去跌幅。这种微妙的经济节奏为贵金 属提供了支撑，2月黄金期货价格攀升至4350.70美元上方，而3月白银也维持在63.67美元附近的稳定水 平。 美国近期劳动力市场表现极度不稳定，Mhmarkets迈汇表示，11月非农就业人数虽然增加6.4万人，但相 比10月大幅下降105万人的基数，整体复苏力度仍显乏力。失业率小幅升至4.6%，超出了市场原本预期 的4.5%，这反映出求职者在当前环境下的困境。此外，零售销售数据受汽车及能源支出拖累表现平 淡，叠加12月业务活动增速降至半年低点，种种迹象表明经济增长动力正在减弱。与此同时，投入成本 的大幅跳升也令通胀阴霾未散，Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这些矛盾的信号使得投资者在判断未来货币政策 方向时表现得更加谨慎。 在外部关联市场方面，美元指数的微跌以及原油价格触及八个月低位，为黄金反弹创造了条件。目前原 油在55.25美元 ...

Economic Overview - The current economic fundamentals are at a delicate turning point, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, but underlying signals indicate a cooling trend [1][3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, suggesting a loosening of the previously tight labor market, adding significant uncertainty to future monetary policy directions [1][3] Employment Structure Analysis - Recent revisions of employment data indicate that growth momentum has been overestimated, with August's figures revised down to -26,000 and September's to 108,000 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1%, falling short of expectations, which may erode residents' real purchasing power amid inflation [4][5] Business Activity and PMI - The S&P Global Composite PMI index fell from 54.2 to 53, with the services PMI dropping to 52.9, reflecting a loss of momentum in business activity expansion [5] - Although all sectors remain above the 50 mark, the downward trajectory raises widespread concerns about the sustainability of growth [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with platinum emerging as a leading asset, surging 3.22% to $1,874.30, indicating its safe-haven asset characteristics and expectations of supply-demand gaps in industrial manufacturing [5] - Silver has slightly retreated to $63.795, but its substantial gains since August suggest that the current consolidation may represent a high-level bottoming process [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are hovering around $4,331.20, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as they digest conflicting information [6] - The rise in unemployment provides support for safe-haven assets, while the better-than-expected job growth suppresses bullish momentum [6] - The strong breakout of platinum and the high-level consolidation of gold create a market landscape driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand, with the metal sector's independent trends likely to be a focus in the near term [6]

维持大原则看涨黄金不变的前提下，继续看黄金在这个周期的调整力度和上涨空间，首先要强调，在趋势中的上涨空间有多大，这个周期目前的高点是 4350，4350破位就看4385，不管是本周，还是上周的高点都有相对应的参考，其次要强调，周期的调整空间也不得不看，比如在周一上涨中，山海就强调 4350之下不要过分看涨，随时可能出现调整空间，实际最低跌至4270，而在周二非农出局后看好上涨至4330后，也再次强调，不要过分看涨，午夜也回落 到4290，结合这两波行情可以看到，黄金的调整空间也不得不防。那么，现在的行情就明显了，黄金在多头趋势中既要看上涨的趋势力度，也要看有效的 调整空间。周三维持这个原则做有效的交易。从技术面来看，日线周期表现仍然是强势，保持在均线支撑之上，等待上轨开口，所以，趋势不变，市场环 境推动，黄金还是有机会破位新高。但是H4周期经过这两天的涨跌，已经出现收口表现，均线粘合，没有绝对的多空单边走向，暂时可看的区间在 4350/4250，所以，在看涨趋势中，不要过分的看涨，再回落过程中，也不要指望趋势发生变化。对于日内行情而言，上方压制在4330，4350，下方支撑在 4290，4275，尽量在关键点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（12月16日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计91302千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 乌克兰和谈的进展为全球金市带来了短期压力，避险需求的减弱导致金价涨幅收窄，但美国就业数据的 公布将成为下一个关键转折点。如果数据强劲，可能进一步提振美元并*金价；反之，若数据疲弱，则 可能重燃降息预期，推动金价反弹。投资者需密切关注地缘政治动态与经济指标的互动，以把握市场机 会。在当前不确定性环境下，黄金作为避险资产的角色仍将持续发挥作用，但短期波动性不可忽视。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周二（12月16日）黄金期货开盘价983.34元/克，截至目前最高983.80元/克， 最低967.08元/克。截止发稿报971.42元/克，跌幅0.60%，成交量为293904手，持仓为196206手，日持仓 减少6832手。 | | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 91302 | 0 | ...

市场解读： 12月16日，现货黄金在本周一（10月15日）经历了冲高回落的剧烈波动，由于市场对美联储降息的预期 以及美元汇率的变动，现货黄金一度逼近4350美元关口的心理高位，这几乎触及了上周五创下的逾七周 新高。然而，随着避险情绪的迅速冷却，金价很快回吐了大部分涨幅，最终收报4304.91美元/盎司，仅 微涨约0.1%。这一变化的主要驱动力来自于美国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基围绕结束战．争的重要会 谈取得的进展，这显著降低了市场的避险需求。与此同时，全球交易商的目光正转向即将公布的关键美 国就业数据，这些数据将进一步揭示美联储未来的货币政策路径。 投资者需密切关注地缘政治动态与经济指标的互动，以把握市场机会。在当前不确定性环境下，黄金作 为避险资产的角色仍将持续发挥作用，但短期波动性不可忽视。 黄金技术分析： 黄金目前继续看多头状态下的高位震荡，虽然多头明显，在关键价位做多，但也可以尝试性在高位做 空，这是目前行情的有效做法。周一亚欧盘黄金直接上涨，最高在4350，接近上周五的4353，美盘时段 冲高回落，最低在4285附近，全天下跌有70多美金，那么黄金在4350形成了上方的双顶，在多头趋势下 不破4350 ...

格隆汇12月15日｜由于投资者权衡明年美国货币政策宽松的预期以及持续的地缘政治风险，黄金价格上 涨。"在美联储近期降息以及美联储主席鲍威尔发表的言论不如预期般鹰派之后，市场预期美联储2026 年将进一步降息，这提振了黄金价格，"Exness公司的Christopher Tahir表示。与此同时，俄乌和平谈判 的不确定性，加上中东和拉丁美洲的紧张局势，进一步增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。Tahir表 示，资金持续流入黄金支持的ETF、各国央行的持续购买以及对美联储未来独立性的担忧也提振了黄金 需求。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen for the fifth consecutive day, supported by market expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and a pullback in tech stocks, nearing historical highs by about $40 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices increased by 1.1%, marking the longest consecutive rise since reaching record highs in October [1] - Asian stock markets declined on Monday, reflecting a decrease in global risk appetite due to concerns over the sustainability of high valuations for tech companies and their ability to invest heavily in artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has increased during the last complete trading week of the year [1] - Gold bulls are betting on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve next year [1]

市场解读： 尽管美联储暗示在更多数据出炉前对进一步降息持谨慎态度，但投资者仍预计明年将有两次降息机会， 这为黄金提供了强劲的支撑。作为传统的避险资产，黄金在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，继续吸引资金 流入。投资者正密切关注本周即将公布的关键经济数据，特别是美国非农就业报告，将于12月16日发 布。这份报告涵盖了因政府停摆而延迟的10月和11月数据，可能提供更清晰的经济健康信号。 黄金技术分析： 黄金在本周原则上还是维持多头趋势不变，只要没有太大的变化，肯定还是要继续看涨黄金，并且前高 4380也仅一步之遥。周初看黄金的强势延续性。早盘开盘，黄金在4300之上，很明显，黄金保持绝对的 强势，按照上周五的4350/4257区间的震荡来看，暂时黄金保持这个大区间不变，尽量的在顺势中做多 看涨，但不破4350也要考虑二次见顶后的再次回落空间。 12月15日，上周五（12月12日）金价表现出色，现货黄金上涨0.48%，收报每盎司4300美元附近，盘中 最高触及4353美元/盎司，这是自10月21日以来的最高水平。美国期金也收涨0.4%，结算价达到4328.3 美元。这种上涨势头让黄金多头信心满满，尤其是在美联储上周第三次降 ...