Market Data Summary - **Commodities**: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - **Equities**: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Morning Report - August 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of cotton may fluctuate around 14,000. The overall situation is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral - to - slightly bullish bias in some aspects but also facing bearish factors [4]. - The fundamental situation of cotton shows a balance between supply and demand. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No specific information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,177 yuan, with a basis of 1,197 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, lower than market expectations. July's textile export data is not ideal. It is currently the consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. 3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduced previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponed trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In 2025/26 (July forecast), global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and export trends [9][10]. - **Global Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC)**: In 2025/26, global production is 25.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons or 1.6%), consumption is 25.6 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons or 1.6%), global trade volume is 9.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons or 3.9%), and the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **China's Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [13]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data information provided other than the general description of the main position being bullish with a decreasing net long position [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main contract 2601 rose 0.62% to 3091 yuan/ton, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live hog's main contract 2509 fell 5 yuan/ton to 13965 yuan/ton, with the national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live hogs dropping 0.02 yuan/kg to 13.65 yuan/kg [2] - Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract rose 2.41% to 1010 cents/bushel [2] Group 2: Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. Temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was near to above normal [3][4] - 6 - 10 day outlook: there will be sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and temperature will be near to above normal [4] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 8, national major oil mills' imported soybean inventory was 765 million tons, up 46 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 100 million tons, down 4 million tons week - on - week [5] - On August 12, US soybean import cost reached 4555 yuan, up 86 yuan; Brazilian soybean import cost was 4039 yuan, up 103 yuan; Argentine soybean import cost was 3777 yuan, up 75 yuan [5] - On August 11, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume increased to 54000 tons, and the average trading price rose to 3021.79 yuan/ton [5] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 277.45 million tons of soybeans in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 26.51% year - on - year [6] - US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 68%, flowering rate was 91%, and pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 3.09 dollars/bushel, up 3.0% week - on - week [6] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 68.49 million tons of soybean meal in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 17.75% year - on - year [6] - As of the week ending August 7, 2025, US soybean export inspection volume was 518066 tons [7] - From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff measure will be suspended for 90 days [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 85.9% [7] Group 4: Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybean futures rebounded, boosted by the US president's call and the suspension of the 24% tariff. However, the expectation of a US soybean bumper crop restricts the price rebound space [15][16] - Domestic continuous soybean meal M01 dropped sharply. The basis price rebounded, and the trade flow between regions supported the spot price. Future US soybean imports remain uncertain [17] Live Hogs - On the supply side, farmers are increasing supply by reducing the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, demand is recovering slightly but still limited by high temperatures [19] - It is expected that the near - month contracts will be relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19]

Core Points - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the suspension of 24% tariffs for an additional 90 days, which is seen as a crucial step for businesses to plan their investments and supply chains [1][2] - The decision follows discussions between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, indicating a potential path for future negotiations [2][6] - The extension is welcomed by U.S. businesses, as it provides more time to address trade disputes and aims to reduce uncertainties in long-term planning [2][4] Group 1: Tariff Suspension - The U.S. has announced a 90-day extension of the suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods, maintaining the existing agreement terms [1][2] - The new deadline for tariff negotiations is set for November 10, allowing both countries to address their trade differences [2][6] - The extension is viewed as a strategic move to prevent significant tariff increases that could adversely affect both economies [2][4] Group 2: Business Reactions - The U.S.-China Trade National Committee expressed that the extension is vital for American companies operating in China, providing them with more certainty for their investment strategies [2][4] - High-ranking officials from U.S. companies have indicated that the delay in tariff implementation is crucial for negotiating trade issues and ensuring stable supply chains [2][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts have noted that tariffs have already increased consumer prices in the U.S., with a significant portion of the tariff costs being absorbed by consumers [4][5] - The current average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 18.6%, the highest level since 1933, indicating a shift towards protectionism [5][6] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the limitations of unilateral pressure tactics, as both countries navigate their interdependence [6][7] Group 4: Future Negotiations - Future negotiations may focus on specific sectors, with expectations that a comprehensive agreement may be challenging to achieve in the short term [8][9] - The potential for targeted tariff exemptions or additional tariffs in specific areas remains a possibility as both sides seek to find common ground [8][9] - The U.S. government is also exploring non-tariff issues in negotiations, which could lead to new dynamics in trade policy [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook based on various factors. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with attention on the resistance around 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year. Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton year. The ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. The USDA 7 - month report indicates a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,161 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,281 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, and textile export data in July is not ideal. It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with resistance around 14,000 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (July)**: Global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.90 million tons, consumption is 25.60 million tons, ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.70 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on China's cotton's beginning inventory, sown area, harvested area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic average price, and Cotlook A index are presented [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].

Core Insights - In the first half of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while operating revenue was 66.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [1] - In June, the profit of industrial enterprises was 7,155.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, but the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared to May, with significant improvement in the manufacturing sector where profits shifted from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase [1] - The revenue of industrial enterprises continued to grow, with June showing a 1.0% year-on-year increase, maintaining the same growth rate as May [1] Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed rapid growth in both revenue and profit, with June revenue increasing by 7.0% year-on-year and profits turning from a 2.9% decline in May to a 9.6% increase [2] - In the automotive industry, profits surged by 96.8% due to promotional activities boosting sales and increased investment returns from key enterprises [2] - High-end, intelligent, and green industries within manufacturing saw significant profit growth, with electronic special materials manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing, and marine engineering equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 68.1%, 19.0%, and 17.8% respectively [2] Consumer Goods and Related Sectors - The medical instruments and equipment manufacturing, as well as the production of printing, pharmaceutical, and daily-use equipment, experienced rapid profit growth in June [3] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones continued to show effects, with profits in smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, computer assembly manufacturing, and household air conditioning manufacturing increasing by 160.0%, 97.2%, and 21.0% respectively [3] - The accounts receivable for industrial enterprises reached 26.69 trillion yuan by the end of June, indicating a recovery trend, although the year-on-year growth rate has been declining for four consecutive months since March [3] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the third quarter, it is expected that the overall efficiency of industrial enterprises will improve due to the progress in China-US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic "anti-involution" policies, alongside a rapid rebound in prices of coking coal and steel [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading, and in the absence of significant macro disturbances, it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the alumina futures price has rebounded, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future. The core driver will be the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will remain under high - level pressure in the short term. The reference price range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight, providing some support for the cost of recycled aluminum. However, the demand is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. It is expected that the disk will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract running in the range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc mines has risen, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June were both lower than expected. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventories provide price support. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation has been stable, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will be mainly adjusted within a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term sentiment of the disk is stable, but the policy's continuous stimulus expectations are insufficient, and the fundamental spot demand drive is not obvious. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic, gradually entering the peak season. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. The disk is mainly trading on expectations, and the uncertainty on the supply side will still inject trading variables. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The alumina price in most regions remained stable, with only the average price in Guizhou rising by 0.45% [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The aluminum profile开工率 decreased by 1.00% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 3.02% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.65% week - on - week [8]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 73.81% [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The SHEF inventory increased by 3.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton, and the premium of some brands remained stable. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 0.88% month - on - month [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while the import volume increased by 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.11% day - on - day [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts increased slightly [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 47.37% to 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental verification stage. China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, but the export is still under pressure due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff 2.0", and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations needs to be continuously monitored. The US has imposed a series of new tariffs, and Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, which will have a certain impact on the market. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there are internal differences due to the increasing inflation risk. Putin said that he may meet with Trump in the UAE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 deployed the economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for continuous and timely strengthening of macro policies and more moderate "anti-involution" policies. China's official manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non-manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, mainly supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect under tariff uncertainty. Imports increased by 4.1%, with significant growth in the imports of integrated circuits, copper ore concentrates, and high-tech products [1] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and the EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. The US economic data in July was not as expected, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy continued to drag down business activities. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [2] Commodity Segments - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies should be closely monitored. The supply constraints in the non-ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the impact of tariff implementation on demand expectations needs to be followed. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ accelerated production increase, agreeing to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, urea and other products is also worthy of attention. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Key News - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $3.2922 trillion compared with the end of June, a decrease of 0.76%. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces in July, the ninth consecutive month of increase. China's exports in July increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB and 7.2% in US dollars, while imports increased by 4.8% in RMB and 4.1% in US dollars. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and will sign an executive order to allow 401K accounts to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity funds. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Putin said he may meet with Trump in the UAE [5]