Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic bond market faces short - term pressure from supply and capital disturbances. The central bank maintains a loose stance but with limited policy support, causing the rebound of Treasury bond futures to be weak. The Fed's dovish shift in the US improves short - term risk appetite and increases the pressure on the steepening of the interest rate curve. The differences in the capital and policy stances between the Chinese and US bond markets are widening, with China being moderately tight and the US moving towards easing [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change, while the monthly PPI has a - 0.20% month - on - month and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 trillion yuan increase and a 0.24% month - on - month change. M2 year - on - year growth is 8.80%, up 0.50% with a 6.02% change rate. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, down 0.40% with a - 0.80% change rate [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 98.42, up 0.70 with a 0.72% change. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1680, down 0.018 with a - 0.25% change. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, up 0.02 with a 1.44% change, etc. [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds, positions, net positions, long - short position ratios, spreads between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main - continuous contracts [12][15][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - It includes figures on Shibor interest rate trends, yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [32][26]. IV. Spread Overview - Figures show the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [29][34][35]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [45][40][48]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures on the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [50][56]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield and maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [57][60][58]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [64][67][70]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase interest rates and the volatile prices of Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2512 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the TF2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the importance of maintaining basic livelihood, wages, and operational stability, with a focus on ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Local Governments - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments to 1,034.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, to support the "three guarantees" [2] - In the first half of the year, 9.29 trillion yuan of transfer payments were allocated to local governments, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Local governments are encouraged to replace hidden debts to alleviate repayment pressure and free up resources for public welfare [2] Group 2: Budget Execution and Monitoring - The budget report emphasizes prioritizing "three guarantees" expenditures and strictly controlling budget overruns [3] - Beijing allocated 171.97 billion yuan in transfer payments to districts, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, while Henan's county-level "three guarantees" expenditures reached 173.87 billion yuan, up 16.2% [3] - A monitoring mechanism has been established to detect financial risks early, with 27 indicators set to track local fiscal operations [3] Group 3: Enhancements in Social Welfare - A new childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year has been implemented, with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for this year [4] - Public budget expenditures reached 16,073.7 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with social security and employment expenditures growing by 9.8% [4][5] - The government is focusing on employment strategies, reducing insurance rates, and increasing pension benefits to enhance social welfare [4] Group 4: Long-term Institutional Support - The central government is building a long-term mechanism for the "three guarantees," including enhancing local financial capacity and monitoring fiscal operations [6] - Local governments are implementing measures to ensure the "three guarantees" are prioritized in budget arrangements and expenditures [6] - Recommendations include optimizing the fiscal revenue distribution mechanism to enhance local financial autonomy and efficiency in fund management [7]

资金安排有力度，预算下达就有速度。财政部预算司一级巡视员、政府债务研究和评估中心主任李大伟 介绍，今年上半年，中央对地方转移支付已下达9.29万亿元，占年初预算的89.8%，下达进度较上年同 期提高1.7个百分点；下达均衡性转移支付2.73万亿元，比上年增长7.5%。此外，指导督促地方做好隐 性债务置换工作，大幅减轻地方还本付息压力，腾出更多资源用于保民生、促发展。 "超10万亿元的中央转移支付资金，保持较高增幅，是做好'三保'的有力保障。同时，资金到位快，有 效确保基层财政平稳运行。"中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣说。 保基本民生、保工资、保运转，关系人民群众切身利益。7月底召开的中央政治局会议强调，宏观政策 要持续发力、适时加力。其中，要求"兜牢基层'三保'底线"。 增强地方财力 兜牢基层"三保"底线，财力保障至关重要。今年，中央财政进一步增加对地方转移支付，规模达到 103415亿元，同口径增长8.4%，其中均衡性转移支付、县级基本财力保障机制奖补资金分别安排27340 亿元、4795亿元，加强地方财力保障，支持地方做好"三保"工作。 今年以来，财政持续加大支出强度，优化支出结 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a total of 830 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds on August 22, 2025, contributing to an overall issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan for the year [1] - As of now, 9.13 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds have been issued, with the issuance progress reaching 76.6% [1] - The accelerated issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds aims to optimize the economic structure, particularly supporting key areas such as equipment upgrades and strategic emerging industries, thereby enhancing economic quality and efficiency [1][2] Group 2 - The planned issuance of special bonds for this year is 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on infrastructure investment and local government debt [2] - By August 21, approximately 3.05 trillion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, with a progress rate of 69.33%, representing a 47.16% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The funds from ultra-long-term special government bonds and special bonds are expected to significantly boost infrastructure construction and related industries, promoting economic growth [2][3] Group 3 - The funds allocated for the replacement of old consumer goods have reached 231 billion yuan, with an additional 69 billion yuan to be distributed in October [3] - The majority of the newly issued special bonds are directed towards municipal and industrial park projects, transportation infrastructure, and agricultural water conservancy, accounting for 38.5% of the total [3] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds and special bonds is anticipated to continue at a rapid pace, with the final auction for the year scheduled for October 10 [3][4] Group 4 - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to remain a crucial tool for fiscal policy, with high issuance levels anticipated [4] - The focus of bond funds will continue to align with national strategies and key areas of economic and social development, supporting sectors such as social welfare and environmental protection [4]

Revenue Summary - In the first seven months, the city's general public budget revenue reached 418.24 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%, completing 63.1% of the annual budget [1] - Local tax revenue amounted to 367.84 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%, with a tax revenue share of 87.9%, maintaining the highest quality nationwide [1] - Value-added tax generated 126.8 billion yuan, up 2.5%, driven by growth in the new energy vehicle and internet wholesale sectors [1] - Corporate income tax totaled 117.53 billion yuan, increasing by 13.9%, supported by improved profitability in key information technology enterprises [1] - Personal income tax reached 47.91 billion yuan, growing by 7.4%, influenced by an active capital market and early dividends from listed companies [1] Expenditure Summary - In the first seven months, the city's general public budget expenditure was 508.53 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6%, completing 60.5% of the annual budget [2] - Education expenditure was 74 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, aimed at accommodating changes in school-age population and supporting the expansion of educational facilities [2] - Science and technology expenditure reached 38.33 billion yuan, increasing by 11.2%, focusing on the construction of an international innovation center and strategic technology tasks [2] - Health expenditure amounted to 45.15 billion yuan, up 8.1%, ensuring the stable operation of public medical institutions and improving healthcare services [2] - Social security and employment expenditure was 83.63 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, aimed at enhancing the social security system and supporting employment initiatives [2] - Urban and rural community expenditure totaled 59.78 billion yuan, increasing by 4.8%, supporting infrastructure projects and community governance [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced an increase in funding for special education schools, raising the per-student subsidy from 6,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan, benefiting approximately 910,000 disabled students [1] - Recent policies indicate a shift in fiscal spending towards improving people's livelihoods, with more resources being allocated to education and employment support [1] - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the "people's livelihood" aspect of fiscal arrangements, ensuring a safety net for citizens and improving their sense of well-being [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, national public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2] - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to maintain spending strength, positively impacting consumption and investment [2] - The issuance of new special bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the third quarter, aligning with the government's directive to expedite bond issuance [2]

Group 1 - Jiangsu province implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on stable growth and improving people's livelihoods, which provided strong support for high-quality development [1] - In the first half of the year, Jiangsu's general public budget revenue reached 583.68 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%, with tax revenue growing by 2.7% for nine consecutive months [1] - The industrial production growth led to a 7.4% increase in value-added tax, indicating strong internal economic momentum [1] Group 2 - Wuxi Tengma Precision Transmission Co., Ltd. reported a 44% increase in revenue this year, driven by rising orders for products used in humanoid and industrial robots [1] - Jiangsu Lianbo Precision Technology Co., Ltd. is in a rapid development phase, receiving a 1% fiscal subsidy that significantly supports its growth [2] - The provincial government allocated 10 billion yuan for social elderly service system construction and 31.38 billion yuan for employment subsidies, enhancing social welfare [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a total of 2,370 billion yuan in 30-year special bonds and 10-year government bonds [1] - The 30-year bonds will have a competitive bidding face value of 830 billion yuan, with interest starting from August 25, 2025, and paid semi-annually [1] - A total of 11 special long-term bonds will be issued in the third quarter of this year [2] Group 2 - The government plans to issue 13,000 billion yuan in special long-term bonds this year, with 8,000 billion yuan allocated for "two heavy" project construction and 5,000 billion yuan for "two new" policies [3] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 6,583 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds in the first half of the year to support "two heavy" projects and "two new" initiatives [3] - The issuance of 10-year fixed-rate bonds will have a competitive bidding face value of 1,540 billion yuan, with interest starting from August 25, 2025 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that over the past decade, China's fiscal and tax reforms have significantly strengthened the country's financial capabilities, with substantial reductions in tax burdens and an increase in the number of market entities [1][2][3] - The total tax reductions and fee cuts over the past ten years amount to 8.8 trillion yuan, with the number of newly registered tax-related market entities exceeding 90 million [1][2] - From 2012 to 2021, the national general public budget revenue increased from 11.73 trillion yuan to 20.25 trillion yuan, with a total of 163.05 trillion yuan accumulated over the decade, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 6.9% [1][2] Group 2 - The national general public budget expenditure grew from 12.6 trillion yuan in 2012 to 24.63 trillion yuan in 2021, totaling 193.64 trillion yuan over ten years, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5% [1][2] - The macroeconomic regulation of fiscal policy has been continuously improved, with active fiscal policies implemented from 2012 to 2021, effectively reducing economic cycle fluctuations and supporting high-quality economic development [2][3] - The number of general VAT taxpayers increased from 5.44 million at the end of 2015 to 12.38 million by the end of 2021, indicating a sustained effect of stimulating market vitality through tax reductions [2]

【纠错】 【责任编辑:刘睿祎】 财政运行经受疫情等因素冲击，预算执行总体较好；18455亿元退税款退付到纳税人账户，顺利实现留 抵退税政策"大头落地"；国家融资担保基金已完成再担保合作业务规模5962亿元，同比增长85%；已发 行的新增地方政府专项债券共支持超过2.38万个项目，其中在建项目约1.08万个，新建项目约1.3万 个……报告中的一组数据，彰显上半年积极的财政政策提升效能，更加注重精准、可持续。 根据报告，下半年，财政部将继续实施好各项组合式税费支持政策，持续释放政策红利。认真研究解决 市场主体反映的突出问题，督促地方加强政策配套，挖掘自身潜力加大支持力度，持续助力市场主体纾 困发展。用好地方政府专项债券资金，支持地方政府用足用好专项债务限额。压实主管部门和项目单位 责任，实施支出进度通报预警机制，推动尽快形成实物工作量。加强财政与货币政策联动，支持政策性 开发性金融工具落地，实现扩大有效投资、带动就业、促进消费的综合效应。 财政部表示，下半年还将加强重大战略任务财力保障，切实保障和改善民生，加强财政收支管理，强化 财政可持续性，进一步严肃财经纪律。 新华社北京8月30日电（记者申铖）今年以来，各级 ...