Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international precious metal futures markets are experiencing a decline, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing economic uncertainties in the U.S. [1][3][4] Price Movements - As of October 10, domestic precious metal futures are all in the red, with SHFE gold at 901.06 CNY per gram, down 1.30%, and SHFE silver at 11,075.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.20% [1] - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3,984.70 CNY per ounce, down 0.16%, while COMEX silver is at 47.53 USD per ounce, down 0.36% [1] Market Analysis - The overnight market saw a decline in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures down 1.96% and SHFE gold down 1.17% [4] - The easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a quick rise and subsequent fall in gold prices, shifting market focus towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown, with multiple failed funding proposals, creating uncertainty in economic data releases and complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]

基本面： 周五（10月10日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅反弹收复隔夜部分跌幅，目前暂交投于3980美元附近。金价在触及4059.05美元的历史新高后急转直下，周四 （10月9日）下跌近2%，最终失守4000美元关口，收于3976美元附近。驱动此轮下跌的直接诱因，是美元指数的持续走强以及中东地区紧张局势的暂时缓 和。与此同时，白银也从51.22美元的历史高位应声回落，收报于49.23美元。美元指数连续四个交易日上涨，创下近两个月新高，使得以美元计价的黄金对 于海外买家而言变得更加昂贵。而以色列与哈马斯达成停火协议，则削弱了黄金作为地缘政治避险资产的光芒，促使部分投机者选择"落袋为安"。 美国债市的波动进一步放大了黄金市场的调整压力。周四，美国国债收益率小幅走高，30年期国债标售结果显示需求一般，在联邦政府持续停摆导致官方经 济指标发布受阻的背景下，市场信号的意义被削弱。美国10年期国债收益率上涨1.7个基点至4.148%，30年期收益率上升0.8个基点至4.732%。两年期国债收 益率升至3.597%，而五年期和十年期TIPS损益平衡收益率分别报2.423%和2.355%，表明市场预期未来十年年均通胀率约为2.4% ...

Core Insights - The price of gold has surged nearly 12% in September, reaching an all-time high of $3,859, with a year-to-date increase of 47.04% [1] - Key factors driving this rally include Federal Reserve policy movements, particularly the indication of three rate cuts in 2025, leading to expectations of easier monetary conditions and increased debasement risk [1][2] Gold Market Dynamics - A shift to below neutral monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, prompting investors to seek gold as a reliable store of value [2] - The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty reinforces gold's appeal as a safe haven investment, suggesting that the current price rally may be just the beginning [2] Investment Opportunities - The Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) offers investors direct exposure to gold bullion through an ETF structure, benefiting from the recent price surge and macroeconomic conditions [3] - As of September 30, 2025, PHYS has experienced a 46.03% increase in net asset value year-to-date, reflecting strong performance amid the gold rally [3]

特朗普的关税政策正在让美国经济付出沉重代价，而普通家庭最先感受到压力。 根据国际货币基金组织2025年4月发布的报告，美国个人消费价格指数可能 加速到3.5%至4%，是美联储通胀目标的两倍。 墨西哥成为受冲击最严重的国家。 IMF预测墨西哥经济2025年将萎缩0.3%，而此前预计增长1.4%，下调幅度达1.7个百分点。 中国经济也将受到更高关税的 影响，2025年和2026年的增长预测分别从4.6%和4.5%下调至4.0%。 欧元区2025年增长预测从1.0%降至0.8%。 德国经济前景尤其暗淡，2025年增长预测被下调至零增长。 全球贸易增长预计将在2025年下降1.5个百分点，反映出全球经济加速碎片化趋势。 特朗普政府自2025年1月上任以来宣布的一系列进口关税，使美国关税水平已超过大萧条时期的高点，打破了二战后逐步形成的低贸易壁垒时期。 4月2日，特朗普政府实施了几乎全面的关税措施。 除了对几乎所有美国进口的商品征收10%的基准关税外，还对与美国贸易逆差大的数十个国家或地区征 收更高的"对等关税"。 柬埔寨和越南分别面临49%和46%的关税税率，欧盟、日本、马来西亚、韩国、印度、瑞士、印尼、中国、泰国等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, with suggestions for light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory and bullish trading [2] - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of supply slowdown and demand increase, and light - position oscillatory and bullish trading is recommended [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 21,090 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,875 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 20,615 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 4,385 lots, down 1,190 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.67, up 0.13 [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,750.50 US dollars/ton, up 8.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 506,400 tons, up 1,075 tons [2] Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,100 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot nationwide is 20,960 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 485 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2] Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 11.99 million tons, down 30.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.70 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] - The production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2] - The automobile production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2] Option Situation - The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.11, up 0.0027; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 13.23%, up 0.0094 [2] Industry News - The Fed shows a willingness to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials are cautious due to inflation concerns. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook [2] - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [2] - Many new energy vehicle companies announce their September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high delivery volumes [2] Alumina View Summary - Affected by the reduced shipments in Guinea due to climate reasons, the domestic bauxite inventory and imports will continue to decline slightly. The domestic supply of alumina may remain stable, and the demand will increase slightly [2] Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The supply of alumina is still excessive, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum may increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by policies and application consumption [2] Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - Benefiting from the strong operation of aluminum prices and tight raw material supply, the cost of scrap aluminum rises, and the supply of cast aluminum will decrease. The demand for cast aluminum will increase after the double - festivals and due to policy support [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increased positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, copper mine supply is tightened due to mine shutdowns, and domestic smelting capacity may converge. On the demand side, supported by the traditional peak season and policies, the industry's overall outlook is positive. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decline. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a bullish bias and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,750 yuan/ton, up 3,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,864 dollars/ton, up 195 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 221,715 lots, up 7,856 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 6,648 lots, up 1,387 lots. LME copper inventory is 139,200 tons, down 225 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 95,034 tons, down 3,745 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,125 tons, down 175 tons; the warrants of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,703 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,915 yuan/ton, up 2,815 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.52 dollars/ton, up 7.21 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,200 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,900 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,040 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 70,550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,795.76 billion yuan, up 480.79 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.52%, up 5.97 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.36%, up 3.95 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 24.79%, up 0.0346 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.1057 [2] Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that officials are willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy easing may be appropriate this year, and inflation is expected to remain high in the short term and then gradually fall to 2%. Fed's Logan expects a slight rise in unemployment and advocates caution in interest - rate cuts; Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points per week. It is expected that there will be two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of this year and another 50 - basis - point easing in 2026. China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out pilot projects on new consumption models and improve the international consumption environment, with central financial subsidies for pilot cities for two years. Many new - energy vehicle companies released September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high results. The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in global refined copper in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. It expects global copper mine output to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and global refined copper output to grow by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,000/ton to $10,500/ton, maintains the 2027 forecast at $10,750/ton, and expects copper prices to stay at $10,000/ton for the rest of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a downward adjustment in interest rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected employment data and rising risks in the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% following the September 17 meeting [1] - Nearly all voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee supported the 25 basis point rate cut, with only one member opposing and favoring a 50 basis point cut [1] Economic Indicators - The minutes highlighted a slowdown in actual GDP growth during the first half of the year and a weakening labor market [1] - Consumer price inflation has continued to rise slightly, remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - There is a divergence of opinions among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing inflation would be close to the target without this year's tariff increases, while others argue that progress towards the 2% target has stalled even when excluding tariff effects [1] Future Rate Expectations - A significant majority of Fed officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, with about half expecting three cuts [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a division among governors regarding the direction of interest rates, with a slim majority expecting two more cuts this year [1][3] - There is a lack of data due to the government shutdown, which is complicating the Fed's decision-making process [1][3] - The 10-year yield has remained relatively stable over the past 18 months, indicating a sideways trading pattern, which may suggest uncertainty in the market [4][5][6] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has been weakening significantly, leading to higher yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), which may impact the U.S. bond and equity markets [7][8] - The Bank of Japan faces pressure to raise rates due to high inflation, creating a complex relationship with global bond markets [8] - The Fed's balance sheet is at a critical level just below $3 trillion, raising concerns about the potential impact on the banking system if reserves become too low [10][11] Group 3 - The Fed's cautious stance may lead to a more dovish approach in future meetings, which could positively influence the stock market [12][13] - Faster rate cuts could push yields higher, reflecting increased stimulus in the economy, especially with the stock market reaching record highs [13]