Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above $9,274, with a recent increase of 1.43% to $9,300 per ounce, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The July core CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month and increased from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, while the overall CPI rose by 0.2% and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut probability of 59.9% by October [3] Group 2 - The silver market is currently experiencing a high-level consolidation, with expectations of limited upward movement, targeting levels around $9,350 to $9,400 in the near term [4] - The inflation data suggests a structural upward trend in U.S. inflation, which may complicate consensus on monetary policy decisions within the Federal Reserve [2] - The service sector shows signs of increased activity, with notable price increases in airfares and medical costs, while housing costs have only risen modestly, providing a balancing effect [2]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from June, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than June's 0.3% increase [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January [1] - Service prices have rebounded, indicating challenges in controlling inflation, despite no significant price increases in goods directly related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The U.S. inflation situation is complex, with strong resilience observed; tariff-related price increases are noted in certain services, such as medical insurance and furniture [4] - Despite rising prices, overall inflation has not deteriorated significantly due to a cooling labor market, with a downward revision of non-farm employment numbers and a first-half economic growth rate of only 1.4% [5] - The potential impact of recent data on Federal Reserve monetary policy is highlighted, with President Trump advocating for immediate interest rate cuts to lower government refinancing costs and support the economy ahead of the midterm elections [7] Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a significant probability that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts in September, especially if labor market data continues to worsen, despite inflation being above target [8] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a rate cut in September, influenced by the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data expected at the end of August [8]

Employment Data Revision - Since 2025, U.S. non-farm employment data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than initially reported[2] - Historical patterns show that significant downward revisions in non-farm data often precede economic slowdowns, as seen during the 2001 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis[3] - The downward trend in non-farm data has been consistent over the past three years, with revisions of 546,000, 577,000, and 461,000 jobs respectively[3] Labor Market Indicators - Job vacancies have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a decline of nearly 40%[10] - The unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% in late 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, reflecting a gradual but persistent upward trend[10] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have increased from around 200,000 in early 2023 to 250,000 by June 2025, indicating a rise in layoffs[10] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 80% within a few days[13] - The likelihood of cumulative rate cuts of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year has increased from less than 8% to 53.1%[13] - The focus of market speculation has transitioned from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" as labor market data continues to weaken[13]

中金公司发布研究报告称，美国7月核心CPI季调环比上涨0.3%，同比由2.9%反弹至3.1%，高于市场预期；整体CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比维持在2.7%，略 低于预期。从分项来看，7月通胀呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征：关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一些此前下跌的服务价格转 为上涨，增加了通胀的粘性。维持此前判断，美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上， 与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大大提升，市场波动将加剧。 7月通胀呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征。商品方面，关税成本仍在向消费者传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。核心商品价格指数季调环比增长0.2%，增 幅与上月持平。其中，家具床具(环比+0.9%)、窗帘(+1.2%)、音视频设备(+0.8%)、摄影设备(+2.1%)仍然保持较高增速，显示关税成本持续传导。但也有 部分此前涨势较猛的项目在7月环比走弱，比如家电(-2.2%)、男装(-1.3%)、非处方药品(-0.5%)、电脑(-2.6%)等。 此前一直没有涨价的汽车价格在7月出 ...

每经AI快讯，中金公司（601995）研报指出，美国7月核心CPI季调环比上涨0.3%，同比由2.9%反弹至 3.1%，高于市场预期；整体CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比维持在2.7%，略低于预期。从分项来看，7月通胀 呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征：关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一些此前下 跌的服务价格转为上涨，增加了通胀的粘性。我们维持此前判断，美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶 段。对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上，与目标越来越远。这可能加大 美联储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大大提升，市场波动将加剧。 ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market remains a focal point for investors, with Ethereum (ETH) ETF inflows surpassing $1 billion on August 12, marking a historical high and drawing significant market attention [1][10] - Despite the record inflow, ETH experienced a 0.5% price correction on the same day, indicating a complex relationship between inflows and market performance [3][4] - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform offers a secure and stable trading environment, enabling investors to navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market effectively [6][8] Ethereum ETF Analysis - As of August 12, 2025, ETH ETF inflows reached unprecedented levels, with BlackRock's ETHA fund making a notable contribution [1] - The sustained and large inflows into the ETH ETF are believed to significantly influence Ethereum's market performance, potentially aiding its return to the $4,000 mark [1][10] - The market's reaction to upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and global economic uncertainties may also impact Ethereum's price movements [4] Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by volatility, as evidenced by the recent price correction of ETH despite high inflows, which has led to a notable increase in liquidation events for some investors [3][4] - Bitcoin has shown resilience, with a stable performance amidst Ethereum's fluctuations, reflecting overall market activity and investor confidence [3][4] XBIT Decentralized Exchange Features - XBIT's decentralized platform eliminates the need for third-party trust, relying on smart contracts for transaction execution, which enhances security and transparency [6][8] - Users maintain control over their assets, as private keys are held by the users themselves, mitigating risks associated with centralized exchanges [6][8] - The platform offers a variety of trading pairs and robust data analysis tools, allowing investors to make informed decisions based on real-time market data [8][10] Conclusion - The record inflow into Ethereum ETFs and the recent price correction highlight the complexities and uncertainties within the cryptocurrency market [10] - XBIT's unique advantages position it as a valuable platform for investors seeking secure and reliable trading options in this dynamic environment [10]

基本面： 周二（8月12日）亚欧时段，现货黄金守住隔夜回吐空间后维持较弱态势，目前暂交投于3351美元附近。现货黄金价格周一大幅下挫1.6%，盘中最低触及 3341.25美元/盎司，创逾一周新低。这一跌势不仅抹去了上周五创下的历史高点3534.1美元/盎司的辉煌，还让投资者们陷入迷茫。美国总统特朗普对黄金关 税的豁免声明、中美贸易关税休战的再度延长、俄乌和平谈判的潜在进展，以及市场对即将公布的美国通胀数据的焦虑。这些事件共同削弱了黄金的避险魅 力，推动价格加速回落。然而，在美联储利率前景不明朗的背景下，通胀报告或许将成为黄金命运的转折点。 操作思路： 空单： 激进3365附近尝试，稳健3376附近轻仓空，止损10美元，目标3335/3315附近 黄金价格的暴跌，首先源于美国总统特朗普的一纸声明。上周五，有报道称华盛顿可能对美国交易量最大的金条征收针对特定国家的进口关税，这一度刺激 期金价格飙升至历史新高，投资者蜂拥买入以对冲潜在贸易摩擦风险。然而，上周五纽约时段，白宫称计划澄清关于金条进口关税的"错误信息"，这令金价 回吐涨幅，特朗普周一在其社交媒体账户上明确表示，黄金不会被征收关税，虽然他没有透露更多细节， ...

黄金多空双收，原油反弹继续空！ 在关税风波逐步落地之后，市场的关注重心也是再度转移到了后续美联储货币政策之上，今晚上的CPI通胀数据也是备受关 注，通胀数据一直都是美联储衡量降息的重要依据，同时特朗普辟谣黄金进口关税，本周将与普京的会晤也预示着俄乌战争 可能接近尾声，导致近期避险情绪是有所消退，黄金也是从高位如期走出回落，上个交易日黄金早间开盘从3405附近一路回 落，早盘迅速跌破3380这个周五多次回踩未破的低点支撑之后惯性杀跌，早盘第一波回踩3367附近反抽3380附近确认压力之 后欧美盘二次回落，美盘前回踩3344附近之后反弹到了3362附近晚间再度回落触及3341附近再度企稳反抽，目前来看这个走 势基本符合我们昨天跟大家分享的走势，早盘3378附近直接空，关注3340/45的支撑，然后在3345/6做多也是兑现到了3360上 方目标位，日内继续关注一下3340/3335这个短期支撑情况，操作上反弹继续先空， 但是不过分追空，关注一下晚间CPI数据 的指引情况。 8/12黄金原油参考思路 黄金回踩3336附近多，防守3329，目标看3355附近，反抽初见3360附近空，防守3368，看3342/3335 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was disproven after Trump stated that no tariffs would be imposed on gold, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices. However, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy remains the main driver for the precious metal market. With Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data, there is certainty that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metal strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Precious Metal Price Movements - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.87% to 777.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 0.93% to 9158.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold dropped 0.24% to 3396.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver dropped 0.43% to 37.63 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.27%, and the US dollar index was at 98.53 [2]. - On August 11, 2025, compared with August 8, 2025, COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.87% to 3393.70 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume dropped 30.58% to 21.69 million lots. COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 2.25% to 37.65 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume dropped 7.33% to 59.13 million lots [6]. 3.2 Impact of Tariff Expectations - Last week, the market's expectation of a 1 - kilogram gold bar tariff in the US drove the premium of COMEX Gold over London Gold to a high of 44.81 dollars/ounce on August 7. After Trump's statement, the premium of COMEX Gold dropped significantly, and as of this morning, the price difference between COMEX Gold and London Gold fell to 9.1 dollars/ounce [3]. 3.3 Other Market Data - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.48% to 964.22 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 0.45% to 15058.60 tons [4]. - The VIX index rose 7.26% to 16.25, while major US stock indexes such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined. The London FTSE 100 and Tokyo Nikkei 225 indexes rose [4]. 3.4 Price Spread Analysis - On August 11, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 31.1035 yuan/gram (3.57 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 3.94 yuan/gram (17.04 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 486.34 yuan/kilogram (2.10 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread for silver was 476.76 yuan/kilogram (2.06 dollars/ounce) [55].