Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg futures market experienced intensified long - short battles last week. High egg - laying hen存栏 and adverse weather conditions put significant pressure on egg prices, but an increase in the number of culled chickens and rising procurement demand for cold - storage eggs provided support. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. With the boost of the consumption peak season in the third quarter, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [8][59]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1. Trend Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of egg futures, JD2508, fluctuated last week. As of last Friday, it closed at 3,582 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a total trading volume of 125,885 lots, an open interest of 184,136 lots, and a weekly increase of 1.1% [5][12]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 2.70 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25%; in the main consuming areas, it was 2.76 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The price in the main producing areas first declined and then stabilized, while that in the main consuming areas showed a weakening trend [7][16]. - **Chick Price**: The chick price was generally weak last week. The average price of commercial - generation chicks in key national regions was 3.88 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.08%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 80% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: The price of old hens fluctuated strongly last week. The average price of old hens in representative markets in key producing areas was 4.65 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.65% [26]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Egg - laying Hen存栏**: As of June, the national egg - laying hen存栏 was about 1.27 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The supply was abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand would be further intensified [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in representative markets in the main producing areas decreased by 0.63% week - on - week and 17.52% year - on - year. It first weakened and then increased [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens last week was 529,200, a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, and the slaughter volume decreased with a slightly earlier slaughter age [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival Volume in Consuming Areas**: As of last Thursday, the arrival volume in the Beijing market increased by 2.06% week - on - week, while that in the Guangdong market decreased by 20.03% week - on - week. The overall downstream consumption demand was average [45]. - **Sales Volume in Consuming Areas**: The egg sales volume last week was 5,928.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.56% [49]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in the production link last week was 1.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.52 days, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%. The overall inventory increased slightly [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The egg - laying hen breeding cost last week was 3.55 yuan per catty, remaining flat week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.85 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 25.00%. The egg - laying hen breeding loss further expanded [57]. 3.3. Market Outlook The egg futures market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. With the boost of the third - quarter consumption peak season, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [59]. 3.4. Operation Strategy Due to the short - term market uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Continuously monitor the signals of capacity reduction and demand recovery in July [10][60].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig market in the first half of 2025 is experiencing a "spot price decline and wide fluctuations in futures," with overall prices showing a downward trend but at a lower rate than previously expected [1] Price Trends - As of the end of June, the average price of pigs in producing areas is 14.86 yuan/kg, down by 0.91 yuan/kg, while in selling areas, the average price is 15.35 yuan/kg, down by 0.94 yuan/kg [1] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year, potentially leading to a short-term price rebound supported by seasonal demand recovery and market sentiment [1] Influencing Factors - Short-term price movements will be influenced by the seasonal demand increase in the third quarter and the sentiment around holding back pigs from the market, while long-term price performance will depend on the sustainability of capacity reduction [1]

当前生猪市场整体表现如何，以及对下半年和明年的市场走势有何预期？ 生猪：猪价超预期上涨，一线专家怎么看 20250625 摘要 预计 2026 年上半年生猪供应量仍将偏大，2025 年下半年或启动产能 去化，可能持续至 2026 年上半年。传统产能去化逻辑为商品猪和仔猪 同时亏损至少三个月，2025 年下半年存在亏损可能性。短期内 2024 年生猪行情上涨空间有限，但长期存在新周期开启信号。 2023 年散户去产能影响 2024 年供应，2025 年供应由 2024 年母猪存 栏量决定，虽略有复产但幅度不大，供应量将缓和增长。预计 2025 年 6-8 月为全年供应低点和价格高点，9 月后出栏量将大幅增加，或致猪 价跌破成本线 13.5 元/公斤。 2022-2025 年仔猪市场亏损较少，因散户母猪减少。饲料企业进军养 猪业，2025-2026 年放量，新增仔猪需求超 2000 万头。近期仔猪价格 下跌较快，已跌至 430 元/头，下半年进入淡季预计继续下行。 断奶猪苗行业平均成本 310 元/头，头部企业可控制在 280 元/头，部分 低成本企业甚至做到 250-260 元/头。养殖企业普遍将 300 元/ ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **pet food** and **swine** industries, focusing on market dynamics, policy impacts, and investment strategies related to these sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points on the Swine Industry - The **National Development and Reform Commission** and the **Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs** have introduced policies aimed at reducing production capacity to boost pig prices and stimulate consumption, similar to the environmental policies of 2015-2016 [1][4]. - Current valuations in the swine sector are low, with recommendations to focus on companies with low costs, low debt ratios, and high growth rates, such as **Muyuan Foods** and **Wens Foodstuff Group** as leading targets, along with **Shennong Group** and **Juxing Agriculture** as secondary targets [1][5]. - The swine sector is at a turning point in both fundamentals and policies, with expectations of increased market pressure from the scale of pig output and secondary fattening practices [2]. - Historical context shows that the swine industry experienced a 25% reduction in production capacity during the 2015-2016 environmental policy period, and current policies are shifting back to capacity constraints to enhance consumption [3]. Key Points on the Pet Food Industry - By 2025, the pet food market is expected to see a rise in domestic brands, with **Xianlang** and **Mafudi** leading the market, while foreign brands like **Royal Canin** and **Natural Balance** still hold significant market shares [1][7]. - High-end product lines in the pet food market, such as baked and dehydrated foods, are growing rapidly, with **Fleegat** showing exceptional performance [1][9]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards precise feeding functions, allowing domestic brands to compete effectively against foreign brands due to better cost-performance ratios [1][9]. - Data from **JD.com** indicates that **Royal Canin** and **Mafudi** lead in both cat and dog food markets, with other brands like **Netease Yanxuan** and **Fleegat** also performing well [1][9]. - The market is witnessing a trend towards high-end products, with significant growth in premium offerings compared to traditional puffed foods [9]. Additional Insights - Companies attempting to enter the pet food market, such as **Three Squirrels** and **Yili**, have struggled due to a lack of understanding of consumer needs and the inherent differences between human and pet food [3][11]. - Consumer behavior during the **618 shopping festival** showed a shift towards rational consumption, with increased focus on precise feeding and higher expectations for product formulations [12]. - The overall performance of leading companies in the pet food sector is expected to remain strong, with high-end products contributing significantly to revenue growth [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that pig prices may stabilize before declining towards the end of the year, with a focus on capacity reduction as the current industry theme, emphasizing the importance of price, policy, and disease as catalysts [1]. Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - Year-to-date price stability indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1]. - The pig cycle is defined by the breeding cycle and efficiency cycle, with historical price trends showing that efficiency cycles can lead to price turning points around April and peaks in Q3 [1][2]. Group 2: Price Outlook - The efficiency cycle will still impact prices in 2025, but to a lesser extent than in previous years, leading to a stable to slightly strong price in the middle of the year, followed by increased downward pressure in the latter half [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that piglet prices typically decline around June, and the assumption that hot weather will lead to price drops has not held true in recent summers [2]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Investment Opportunities - The industry is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which is historically the best-performing stage for pig cycle stocks [3]. - Major stocks within the sector are currently valued at relatively low historical levels, with potential catalysts for price increases including price declines, disease situations, and policy changes [3]. - Investment selection should consider factors such as funding, cost, and growth, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term relative valuation increases [3].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 70th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.1 times, at the historical 56th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 27.7 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 30.4 times, at the historical 10th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 36.9 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the National 2000 Index is 48.3 times, at the historical 65th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 131.8 times, at the historical 97th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 63.9 times, at the historical 92nd percentile [3][6] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 4th percentile [3][6] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [3][4] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [3][4] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [3][4] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 12.2%, and spot prices decreased by 0.7% [3][4] - The price of silicon wafers dropped by 2.8%, while battery prices fell by 6.9% [3][4] - Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively [3][4] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while iron ore prices fell by 1.7% [3][4] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 fell by 10.7% year-on-year [3][4] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.4%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 0.3% [3][4] - The retail sales growth rate from January to May 2025 was 5.0%, with a significant rebound in May [3][4] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 8.5% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] Technology TMT - The output of integrated circuits grew by 6.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - The export value of optical communication modules decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [3][4] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.9% to $77.32 per barrel [3][4] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2% [3][4]

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/6/6-2025/6/19） 行 业 能繁母猪有望持续去化 2025 年 6 月 20 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 所 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业跑输沪深300指数。2025年6月6日—2025年6月19日，SW 农林牧渔行业下跌1.11%，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.22个百分点；细分板 块中，仅养殖业录得正收益，上涨1.51%；种植业、动物保健、农产品加 工、渔业和饲料均录得负收益，分别下跌2.15%、2.77%、3.51%、4.15%和 4.92%。估值方面，截至2025年6月19日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB（整 体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.58倍，近两周先回升后回落。目前行 业估值处于行业2006年以来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating report indicates that the company, Mona Lisa Group Co., Ltd., remains a leading brand in the ceramic tile industry, but faces challenges due to declining revenue and increased competition in the real estate sector [2][3]. Company Overview - The company maintains a strong brand presence in the building ceramics industry, with a well-established distribution network and competitive advantages [3][4]. - The company's main financial data shows a decline in revenue, with operating income dropping from 62.29 billion in 2022 to 6.86 billion in 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit turned negative in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [3][4]. - Key financial metrics include total debt of 25.66 billion in 2025, down from 38.68 billion in 2023, indicating a reduction in financial leverage [2][3]. - The company's operating cash flow was negative at -1.14 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 8.07 billion in 2024 [2][3]. Market Environment - The ceramic tile industry is experiencing a downturn due to a decline in downstream demand, with a projected 10.6% decrease in real estate investment in 2024 [3][4]. - The overall production of ceramic tiles is expected to decrease by 12.18% in 2024, with a significant number of production lines exiting the market [3][4]. Sales and Distribution - The company has shifted its sales strategy, increasing the proportion of revenue from distribution channels to 76.47% in 2024 and 81.86% in the first quarter of 2025 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on improving cash flow by tightening credit terms with high-risk real estate clients, adopting a "cash before delivery" approach [3][4]. Inventory and Receivables - The company faces risks related to inventory devaluation, with a significant portion of its inventory valued at 6.78 billion as of 2024 [4][5]. - The bad debt provision for accounts receivable has increased from 45.59% at the end of 2023 to 50.86% at the end of 2024, indicating heightened credit risk [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - The ceramic tile industry is characterized by intense competition, with many small enterprises and a trend towards market consolidation among larger players [3][4]. - The company is adjusting its product mix to focus on lower-end products as high-end product sales decline, impacting overall revenue and profit margins [3][4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - **Focus**: Pet consumption growth, livestock farming, and feed industry dynamics Key Insights on Pet Industry - **Market Growth**: The Chinese pet market is projected to grow by 7.5% in 2024, with cat products showing particularly strong growth [1][2] - **Food Demand**: Pet food remains a necessity, with staple food and nutritional products gaining market share. There is a clear trend towards health-oriented and specialized products [1][2] - **Export Challenges**: Pet food exports to the U.S. face significant tariffs, currently at 55%. Companies are responding by establishing overseas production facilities [3][4] - **E-commerce Performance**: Domestic brands performed exceptionally well during the 618 shopping festival, with top five brands on Tmall being local. Some brands, like Mediaway, reported a staggering 450% year-on-year growth [5] Trends in Pet Pharmaceuticals - **Market Expansion**: The demand for pet pharmaceuticals is increasing due to the aging pet population and rising penetration rates. The market for diagnostic drugs, vaccines, and dewormers is expanding significantly [1][6][8] - **Vaccination Trends**: There is a trend towards the introduction of major new products in the pet pharmaceutical sector, including the gradual replacement of imported vaccines [6][8] Livestock Farming Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: The pig farming industry is experiencing stricter regulations, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics. As of April 2025, the number of breeding sows has slightly decreased year-on-year [1][12] - **Production Efficiency**: The industry is seeing a rise in production efficiency and a shift towards more rational production practices to stabilize prices [12][13][14] - **Cost and Debt Levels**: Leading pig farming companies maintain a cost advantage, with production costs around 12 to 12.5 RMB per kg. Most companies have a debt-to-asset ratio below 60% [15] Feed Industry Dynamics - **Price Trends**: The prices of bulk feed ingredients are on the rise, leading to a slight increase in overall feed prices. Feed production has rebounded significantly, with a 13.6% year-on-year increase in April 2025 [22][23] - **Market Recovery**: The feed market is expected to continue its recovery, particularly in the pig feed segment, which saw a 15.52% increase in sales [22] Challenges and Opportunities - **Poultry Market**: The white chicken market is facing structural shortages, while the yellow chicken market is at historical lows. Leading companies are adapting by improving breed selection and processing capabilities [16][19] - **Domestic Brands**: Domestic animal health products are gaining traction due to their quality and cost-effectiveness, with significant potential for import substitution [11][21] Future Outlook - **Pet Market Growth**: The pet pharmaceutical market is expected to continue expanding as the pet population ages, with significant growth potential in the domestic market [8][10] - **Livestock Industry Trends**: The livestock industry is likely to see ongoing improvements in production efficiency and a more favorable supply-demand balance in the coming years [12][13][14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and challenges within the pet and livestock industries.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Decon Agriculture, which has outperformed the overall industry despite a continuous decline in pig prices and narrowing breeding profits. The key to competition in the pig farming industry is cost reduction, and the industry may remain in a state of micro-profitability [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Decon Agriculture's stock price surged over 260% this year, reaching a high of 96 HKD per share, marking a 269% increase from its low point earlier in the year [2][7]. - As of June 16, the stock closed at 88.4 HKD per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 224% [2][5]. - The company has shown a remarkable recovery, with a projected revenue of approximately 22.463 billion RMB for 2024, a 39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of about 4.102 billion RMB, reversing a loss of 1.775 billion RMB in 2023 [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Context - The pig farming industry is currently facing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices, which fell to around 14 RMB per kilogram [5][13]. - The average price of live pigs and pork has decreased by 18.56% and 9.95% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a challenging market environment [13]. - Despite the overall profitability in pig farming, profits are shrinking, and cost control has become crucial for companies to maintain profitability [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Decon Agriculture has implemented an innovative "company + sow breeding and fattening farm" model, which enhances asset-light operations and improves disease control, establishing a solid foundation for growth [10]. - The company has a competitive edge with a projected net profit of 350-370 RMB per pig, significantly higher than the industry average of 161 RMB for scattered farming and 302 RMB for large-scale farming [10]. - Analysts expect Decon Agriculture's breeding costs to continue to decline, providing substantial room for valuation recovery [8][9].