Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 14% increase in the trade deficit for March, reaching a record $140.5 billion, attributed to businesses increasing imports ahead of tariffs imposed by Trump [3] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is scheduled to visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, indicating ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S. [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized that any dialogue must be based on mutual respect and benefit, warning against U.S. coercion [3] Group 2: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently rising, with the latest price at 802.84 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.79% increase, and a trading range between 795.60 and 809.36 yuan per gram [5] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 820-825 yuan, while support levels are noted between 760-765 yuan [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, as well as tensions between India and Pakistan, are contributing to increased safe-haven buying in gold [4]

Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation is overall easing, and global oil demand is declining, while OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, leading to a higher probability of a price reduction in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [1][4] - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a year-to-date decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline and 410 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The recent price adjustment coincides with the "May Day" holiday, allowing private car owners to travel at lower fuel costs [2] Group 2 - During the current pricing cycle, the international oil price change rate has been narrowing, with the average price of reference crude oil at 64.82 yuan/barrel and a change rate of 0.65% as of April 30 [4] - Despite some upward pressure on international oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies are overshadowing global economic growth and fuel demand prospects [4] - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with expectations of a price reduction due to the overall easing of geopolitical tensions and OPEC+'s stance on increasing production [4]

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月28日 黑色方面，钢材、铁矿石在前期强势上涨后出现调整，成材库存去化节奏减 慢，铁矿石盘面情绪同步转弱，双焦受原料补库力度减弱影响也震荡偏弱。政策 面稳增长预期依然存在支撑，但短期现实需求与宏观情绪脱节，导致黑色板块波 动加大。 能源方面，市场对全球经济放缓及需求疲软的担忧升温，同时美国成品油库 存回升、美联储偏鹰预期抑制了油价上行空间。尽管中东局势仍有不稳定因素， 但避险支撑逐步减弱，油价上行动能不足。天然气价格继续承压，受库存高企及 气温回暖影响，供需宽松格局未改。短期来看，能源板块情绪趋于谨慎，关注 OPEC+后续减产动态以及全球经济数据对需求端预期的进一步调整。 化工方面，聚酯产业链品种如PTA、乙二醇在成本支撑减弱下震荡回落，甲 醇、PVC等基础化工品亦受制于内需疲软和出口承压，盘面持续承压。尽管国 内稳增长政策仍在推进，但短期现实需求接力不足，化工板块陷入成本支撑减弱 与终端需求乏力共振的调整阶段。节后市场关注点将转向下游复工节奏、库存变 化及国际油价的指引作用。 农产品方面，油脂油料板块走高，受外盘反弹、供需预期改善及资金情绪回 暖带动。畜禽板块表现偏弱，消费提振 ...

晚评黄金： 消息面：金价本周交投震荡，一度触及3500美元/盎司的纪录新高，随后遭遇阻力，跌向3300美元/盎司 水准。金价此前创历史新高的主要原因是，在美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔进行口头攻击后，市 场担心美联储会失去独立性。本交易日将出炉欧元区和美国4月SPGI制造业PMI初值，投资者也需要予 以留意，关注俄乌地缘局势相关消息。 技术面：技术面上看，昨日国际油价震荡交投中进一步迎来多头震荡上行破高收盘。亚欧盘时段，原油 价格小幅回踩下探，盘中企稳63关口后迎来震荡回升，晚间美盘加速冲高并突破64关口强势收盘，日K 线报收震荡上行中阳。日线上，上一个交易日行情延续反弹且收阳线，显示短期油价坚挺。指标上看， 行情有望站上20日均线，那么油价存在进一步走高的机会。晚间关注上方67.2美元一线压力，下方关注 62.8美元一线支撑。个人预计：回调做多为主；WTI分水岭：62.8美元/桶！ 波段建议：反弹3340/3350区间分批空，防守3360上方，目标3253/3342区间考虑多！ 技术面：黄金日线图显示，14日相对强弱指数(RSI)已从超买区域回落，回到看涨区域。这一领先指标 的最新下跌支撑了金价的新一轮下 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent closed-door meetings between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia have led to "creative progress" regarding maritime security and energy facility protection, indicating a potential easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but revised inflation expectations upward while lowering economic forecasts, increasing the likelihood of an earlier rate cut, potentially by June [1] - Technical analysis shows gold has experienced three consecutive weekly gains, with a bullish trend, although short-term fluctuations are expected around the $3,030 resistance level [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The US military has conducted at least 47 attacks against Houthi forces in Yemen, while Houthi forces have targeted the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, raising concerns about the security of oil shipping routes in the Red Sea [2] - The Mandeb Strait, through which approximately 7.2 million barrels of oil pass daily, is critical for global oil trade, and any blockade could severely impact energy supplies [2] - Despite the easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains tense, with potential for escalation due to increased US actions against Houthi forces and sanctions on Iran [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a weak performance, failing to break the resistance at the 38,100 level, with a higher probability of continued declines [3] - Key support levels to watch are at 37,400 and 37,000 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices have surged over 11% in the past two weeks, indicating strong bullish momentum, although there is a potential need for a pullback [4] - A drop below $5.02 could lead to a focus on the $4.90 support level [4]