最新数据出炉。 11月13日，人民银行发布的最新金融统计数据报告显示，初步统计，2025年前十个月社会融资规模增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多增3.83万亿元。 10月末，社融存量的同比增速为8.5%，广义货币(M2)增速8.2%，环比均下降0.2个百分点；反映资金活化程度的狭义货币(M1)增6.2%，环比下降1个百分 点。 今年以来，国债和特殊再融资债等政府债发行进度较快、企业债发行热度较高，均对社融规模增长形成重要支撑。与此同时，社融规模的结构也在逐渐发 生变化，在社会融资规模增量中，除贷款外的其他融资方式占比已经超过一半。权威专家表示，用社融观察金融总量，能更清楚看到资金支持的整体力 度。从量、价两个维度观察，当前我国货币政策立场都是支持性的，为促进物价合理回升营造了适宜的货币金融环境。 "当前经济运行面临需求不足的挑战，通过加大政府债券发行规模，能够支持重大项目和国家重大战略的实施，助力扩大需求、支撑经济。"上述权威专家 称。 国家金融与发展实验室(NIFD)最新季报显示，2025年更加积极的财政政策节奏快、力度大，政府部门加杠杆幅度连续五个季度保持在2个百分点以上。 2025年三季度，政府部门 ...

最新数据出炉。 11月13日，人民银行发布的最新金融统计数据报告显示，初步统计，2025年前十个月社会融资规模增量累计为 30.9万亿元，比上年同期多增3.83万亿元。10月末，社融存量的同比增速为8.5%，广义货币（M2）增速 8.2%，环比均下降0.2个百分点；反映资金活化程度的狭义货币（M1）增6.2%，环比下降1个百分点。 今年以来，国债和特殊再融资债等政府债发行进度较快、企业债发行热度较高，均对社融规模增长形成重要支 撑。与此同时，社融规模的结构也在逐渐发生变化，在社会融资规模增量中，除贷款外的其他融资方式占比 已经 超过一半。权威专家表示，用社融观察金融总量，能更清楚看到资金支持的整体力度。从量、价两个维 度观察，当前我国货币政策立场都是支持性的，为促进物价合理回升营造了适宜的货币金融环境。 "货币政策虽然还有一定空间，但边际效率已明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可能产生的一些负面效果也需 要关注。"上述权威专家称，未来要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济的 较强支持力度。 政府债净融资占社融增量近四成 今年以来，财政对经济增长及需求拉动的作用显著，也相应带动了社融规模的 ...

土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克日前公开承认，实现年底通胀预测区间"难度较大"。央行方面也表 示，若未来通胀走势明显偏离目标区间，将进一步收紧货币政策，以稳定市场预期。 新华财经伊斯坦布尔11月13日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行近日宣布维持2026年中期通胀目标不变，同 时上调2025年末通胀预测区间。央行在"维稳"长远目标的同时，对当前物价压力保持警惕，释放出偏紧 的政策信号。分析认为，未来货币与财政政策连续性以及二者能否有效协同，成为决定通胀走势、重塑 市场信心的关键。 通胀回落进程持续承压央行上调年末预测区间 土耳其央行本月初最新发布的通胀报告显示，2025年末通胀预测区间从25%至29%上调至31%至33%， 但维持年内中期通胀目标24%不变，同时坚持将2026年底通胀率中期目标设定为16%。 土耳其央行行长法提赫·卡拉汉称，过去两个月通胀率均高于此前预测区间，食品价格上涨是主要推动 因素，住房租金、水电燃气及服务业等关键领域核心物价仍具粘性，持续对整体通胀下行构成阻力。他 强调，央行将继续坚持以通胀为核心的谨慎政策取向，并通过逐次会议决策的方式，进一步引导和改善 通胀预期。 目前来看，土耳其通胀水平虽 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to implement further monetary easing within the year, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments[1] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual economic development goals[1] - The first window for additional easing measures is anticipated in November, followed by another potential window in January of the following year[1] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The relationship between policy rates and market rates is currently stable, with DR007 maintaining a premium of no more than 10 basis points over the 7-day OMO rate[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach a temporary peak at 1.85%, with a favorable premium range of 30-40 basis points over market rates[2] - Commercial banks' net interest margin was 1.42% as of June 2025, reflecting a slight decline, suggesting potential downward space for deposit rates[2] Group 3: Direct Financing Support - The central bank is shifting focus from total credit volume to structural optimization and quality improvement, promoting direct financing development[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring social financing and money supply growth in relation to nominal economic growth[3] - The evolving financial structure indicates a transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven economic growth, necessitating a broader evaluation of financial metrics[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected financial crises abroad[4]

JerryZang 笔者认为，美国经济的现状并非强劲，其中会引发重大经济问题爆发的痛点很多，同时来自内部和外部 的负面冲击也不少，如果再叠加可能出现的"黑天鹅事件"的负面影响，那么美国经济的前景并非光明一 片，而是堪忧。 据媒体报道，近日美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克宣布他将在2026年2月28日任期届满时退休。同时， 博斯蒂克表示，通胀仍然是美国经济面临的更大风险，他倾向于在12月维持利率不变。 在不久前召开的美联储10月议息会议上，有两张分别主张更大幅度降息和维持利率不变的反对票。这凸 显出美联储内部在货币政策走向方面的巨大分歧。一方面，特朗普总统正在不断向美联储施压，希望美 联储尽快降息；另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在不久前的讲话中再次强调了其在货币政策方面的谨慎态 度，并明确表示12月降息并非铁板钉钉。 虽然近期由于美国政府停摆而造成一些重要的经济数据缺失，但是种种迹象表明美国经济面临的下行压 力正在加大，消费者信心也在下降。在这样的背景下，美联储在货币政策问题上的犹豫不定会增加美国 经济面临的不确定性，甚至会错失及时支撑经济的良机。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作， ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the evolution of the central bank's monetary policy framework, highlighting the shift towards "diminishing quantity targets, strengthening interest rate comparisons, and optimizing structural tools" [1] Group 1: Economic Situation Assessment - The report indicates that the domestic economic recovery requires further consolidation, with a need to promote a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers and to transform the economic development model [2] - It acknowledges the complex international situation and the insufficient growth momentum in the global economy, while asserting that the long-term supportive conditions for China's economy remain unchanged [2] - The report shifts its focus on inflation from assessment to description, noting improvements in price movements and suggesting policies to positively influence reasonable price recovery [2] Group 2: Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" tone, focusing on achieving a "fourfold balance" [3] - The report highlights the need for supportive monetary policy to stabilize growth and inflation, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and slowing domestic economic growth [3] - It notes that the non-performing loan ratio and net interest margin of commercial banks have not significantly improved, indicating that the loosening of monetary policy should remain moderate [3] Group 3: Policy Framework Evolution - The report details the evolution of the monetary policy framework, emphasizing the need for liquidity to remain ample and interest rates to be reasonably priced [4] - It states that the focus will shift from "financing and monetary aggregates" to "financial totals," indicating a reduced emphasis on quantity targets, particularly credit growth [5] - The report mentions that the growth rate of RMB loans has dropped to 6.6% in October, a decline of 4.1 percentage points compared to the average growth rate over the past five years [5] Group 4: Price Control Mechanisms - The report stresses the importance of price-based regulation in response to the anticipated decline in financial total growth and increased volatility [8] - It outlines five key interest rate relationships that need to be rationalized, including the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, and the relationship between different types of asset yields [8] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous evaluation of financial institutions' interest rate policies and self-regulatory agreements [8] Group 5: Structural Adjustments - The report calls for continued support for key financial initiatives and emphasizes the importance of enhancing data development and utilization in the fintech sector [9] - It reviews the achievements in financial support for the digital economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and outlines plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on the integration of digital technology and data elements [9]

美联储立场面临考验 经济数据的快速发布将对美联储的政策前景形成考验。 该协议正式结束为期43天的停摆，使联邦政府运营得以恢复至2026年1月30日。 随着政府重启，市场焦点正转向积压的经济数据，这将迅速考验当前的货币政策前景。 ·关键缺失报告：联邦机构将开始发布两个月的滞后数据，包括9月和10月非农就业报告（NFP）及10月消费者物价指数（CPI）。 ·发布时间表：根据以往停摆经验，美国劳工统计局（BLS）预计将在复工后2–5个工作日内发布NFP数据——最早可能在本周末，或更可能在下周 初。 与此同时，本周黄金上涨超过5%，显示在美联储政策不确定性下避险需求回升。 根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预计12月降息25个基点的概率为66.9%，但相比一个月前的92%已大幅下降。 外汇展望：美元盘整与政策关注 美国政府停摆的解决及滞后经济数据的即将发布，使外汇市场进入波动阶段。 美元指数（USDX）在99.00附近维持盘整，但技术偏向仍偏多，得益于美联储政策按兵不动的预期及未来政策不确定性。 USDX，日线图| Ultima Market MT5 技术上看，99.00–100.00区间继续定义短期交易范围。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on November 13, with government bond futures declining across the board, while interbank bond yields rose by approximately 0.5 basis points. The central bank's latest monetary policy report emphasizes stable growth and removes the "preventing capital outflow" statement, maintaining a favorable outlook for the bond market [1][8]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26% at 116.13, the 10-year main contract down 0.1% at 108.41, the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 105.885, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.462 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased slightly, with the 30-year "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 06" yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 2.15%, and the 10-year "25 National Development Bank 15" yield up by 0.35 basis points to 1.876% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 2-year yield up 1.67 basis points to 3.568%, and the 30-year yield down 0.29 basis points to 4.665% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.2 basis points to 1.697% [4]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds generally fell, with the French yield down 4.7 basis points to 3.375% and the German yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.642% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1900 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 972 billion yuan for the day [7]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 10.0 basis points to 1.315% [7]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that recent regulatory measures by the central bank could help open up space for easing and improve the transmission of interest rates from short to long [8]. - CITIC Securities suggested that in the current environment of fluctuating long-term rates, investors should focus on coupon strategies and maintain a flexible approach to enhance returns [9].

本周，美联储官员密集发声，但对于12月是否降息释放出不同信号，美联储内部分歧巨大，降息节奏争 议升级。 美联储内部在三个关键问题上存在深刻分歧：关税驱动的涨价是否一次性、就业放缓的根源，以及利率 是否仍具限制性。 鸽派代表美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰持续呼吁加快宽松步伐，主张在12月降息50个基点，最低也应为25个 基点。 米兰强调，货币政策具有12至18个月的滞后效应，认为"若仅依据当前数据制定政策，那就是在向后 看"。 鹰派阵营则担忧过早放松可能逆转抗通胀成果。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆表示， 他预计美国经济将在2026年一季度显著反弹，并强调进一步降息空间有限。 穆萨勒姆警示高通胀正严重冲击中低收入家庭，重申美联储必须坚持控通胀目标，将通胀率降至2%。 中间派官员则倾向于保持谨慎。今年拥有投票权的波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯明确表示，短 期内进一步降息的门槛"相对较高"，将利率维持在当前水平一段时间可能是合适的做法。 美国联邦政府部分"停摆"导致关键经济数据中断，加剧了美联储政策的不确定性。 根据最新芝商所美联储观察（Fed Watch）工具，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为66.9% ...

•大越期货：风险偏好回升降息预期回归 金价偏强 •银河期货表示，美国政府结束持续40多天的"停摆"在即，与此同时，特朗普提及的针对年收入10万美 元以下家庭发放2000美元退税的设想，以及对美联储官员（接替退休的博斯蒂克）的提名倾向，共同扰 动市场情绪：市场担忧美国政府可能再度推出类似疫情期间的大规模财政刺激措施托举经济；同时，美 联储理事及票委中鸽派阵营可能扩大，引发市场对美联储独立性及其控制通胀能力的怀疑，这些因素共 同增加了贵金属资产的吸引力。此外，白银走势不仅受到黄金价格上扬的带动，其自身基本面也提供支 撑，尽管当前伦敦银市场较10月初极度紧张的局面有所缓解，但整体还是处于供应紧张状态，这使得白 银近两日的涨幅甚至优于黄金。总的来看，短期内贵金属后市整体预计延续高位偏强震荡走势。 •银河期货：短期内贵金属后市整体预计延续高位偏强震荡走势 •五矿期货：流动性修复叠加美联储宽松货币政策预期进一步深化 金银价格延续强势表现 •StoneX：对美联储独立性的担忧构成推涨金价的一个重要因素 •FxPro：日益增长的政治不确定性正在为黄金制造顺风 【机构分析】 •大越期货表示，美国政府开门在望，经济数据降温预期先 ...